Dorrell's 5-Year Record: Little More Than a Flip of a Coin

Just wanted to follow-up on both Achilles' recent post on Keisser's Press-Telegram column and bluestreet's response to Simers' latest Page 2 piece.

Exactly how this would happen I have NO idea, but just for sake of argument, let's assume that this year's CTS-run team manages to eke out a single win out of its last 3 games, all of which are against ranked teams, and ends the year at 6-6.  Thus, by the sheer, almighty grace of Heaven, CTS' record would be this:

2003 -- 6-7 (L - Silicon Valley Bowl)
2004 -- 6-6 (L - Las Vegas Bowl)
2005 -- 10-2 (W - Sun Bowl)
2006 -- 7-6 (L - Emerald Bowl)
2007 -- 6-6 (hypothetical, not counting Bowl Game)
TOTAL:  35-27, or 56.45%.

Flip a coin, and you have a 50% chance of it coming up heads or tails.  A 1 in 2 chance.

After 5 years with CTS, it's still not all-that-much better than a coin flip (i.e. a 1 in 2 chance) as to whether a CTS team is going to win or not.   Take out 2005, and it's exactly that.  25 and 25.  A freaking coin flip.  

By contrast, compare CTS' first 5 years to the 5-year records of some other Pac-10 coaches:

U$C -- Carroll -- 54-10 = 84.38%.
Better than a 5 out of 6 chance.

Cal -- Tedford -- 43-20 = 68.25%.
Better than 2 out of 3.

Oregon -- Bellotti -- 39-20 = 66.10%.
Just a hair under 2 out of 3.

UCLA -- Toledo -- 35-23 = 60.34%
Just about 3 out of 5.

Even Toledo was more likely to win during his first 5 years than CTS.  I'm not saying that 60% SHOULD be the baseline, but come ON.

Just winning at Coach Bellotti's level means winning an average of 8 out of 12 games every year.  If in one year you get 10 wins, you may have a 6-win year to balance it out.  Still, I wouldn't mind THAT kind of spread:  heads, you go to Vegas; tails, you might win the Pac-10.

Under CTS, however, we've had ONE 10-win season for THREE 6 or 7-win seasons.  At the rate we're going, we'll be LUCKY to make it one 10-win season against FOUR 6-win seasons.

I think the AD's office was perfectly fair to give CTS 4+ years, just as I think that the evidence is now clear enough.  

By the Humanitarian's 5th year, $C had tied for 1st his second year, and won it outright THREE TIMES thereafter (and this was all after a 1st season of 6-6, capped by a loss in the Vegas Bowl.).

In Tedford's 5th year, Cal at least TIED for 1st.

On his best day, CTS hasn't finished a season better than THIRD.

I hate seeing any man or woman fired, but at this point, I would like to see a BETTER coach HIRED...

... without taking any wooden nickels in the process.

M

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