Exactly how this would happen I have NO idea, but just for sake of argument, let's assume that this year's CTS-run team manages to eke out a single win out of its last 3 games, all of which are against ranked teams, and ends the year at 6-6. Thus, by the sheer, almighty grace of Heaven, CTS' record would be this:
2003 -- 6-7 (L - Silicon Valley Bowl)
2004 -- 6-6 (L - Las Vegas Bowl)
2005 -- 10-2 (W - Sun Bowl)
2006 -- 7-6 (L - Emerald Bowl)
2007 -- 6-6 (hypothetical, not counting Bowl Game)
TOTAL: 35-27, or 56.45%.
Flip a coin, and you have a 50% chance of it coming up heads or tails. A 1 in 2 chance.
After 5 years with CTS, it's still not all-that-much better than a coin flip (i.e. a 1 in 2 chance) as to whether a CTS team is going to win or not. Take out 2005, and it's exactly that. 25 and 25. A freaking coin flip.
By contrast, compare CTS' first 5 years to the 5-year records of some other Pac-10 coaches:
U$C -- Carroll -- 54-10 = 84.38%.
Better than a 5 out of 6 chance.
Cal -- Tedford -- 43-20 = 68.25%.
Better than 2 out of 3.
Oregon -- Bellotti -- 39-20 = 66.10%.
Just a hair under 2 out of 3.
UCLA -- Toledo -- 35-23 = 60.34%
Just about 3 out of 5.
Even Toledo was more likely to win during his first 5 years than CTS. I'm not saying that 60% SHOULD be the baseline, but come ON.
Just winning at Coach Bellotti's level means winning an average of 8 out of 12 games every year. If in one year you get 10 wins, you may have a 6-win year to balance it out. Still, I wouldn't mind THAT kind of spread: heads, you go to Vegas; tails, you might win the Pac-10.
Under CTS, however, we've had ONE 10-win season for THREE 6 or 7-win seasons. At the rate we're going, we'll be LUCKY to make it one 10-win season against FOUR 6-win seasons.
I think the AD's office was perfectly fair to give CTS 4+ years, just as I think that the evidence is now clear enough.
By the Humanitarian's 5th year, $C had tied for 1st his second year, and won it outright THREE TIMES thereafter (and this was all after a 1st season of 6-6, capped by a loss in the Vegas Bowl.).
In Tedford's 5th year, Cal at least TIED for 1st.
On his best day, CTS hasn't finished a season better than THIRD.
I hate seeing any man or woman fired, but at this point, I would like to see a BETTER coach HIRED...
... without taking any wooden nickels in the process.