Early Thoughts on West Virginia

by Nestor on Feb 9, 2007 4:51 AM PST in Basketball

Time to put JustSC on our rear view mirrors. The Bruins have a pretty interesting (and a very tough) non conference game this Saturday. I believe they left LA yesterday for West Virginia as they get to take on one of the country's best coached team on Saturday.

I am sure many of you remember Coach Beilein's Mountaineers team, which beat the Bruins at Pauley last year (I don't believe the Bruins have a lost a game since that loss). You can bet AA remembers that game. That was the last game I believe he was held to single digits, as he scored just 4 points against the Mountaineers at Pauley. There were stories that AA was so distraught over that loss that after the game he snuck back into Pauley to get in extra practice.

Bruins didn't have much of a chance in that game until they made a desperate come back attempt in second half. It was too little too late. Gansey and Pittsnogle's team was simply too much for Ben Howland's Bruins, which was still in the process of learning how to win big games. Well things have changed. Since that game Bruins have gone undefeated at Pauley with a 37-5 over all record. On the other side Gansey and Pittsnogle are gone from Morgantown. Yet Coach Beilein has the Mountaineers primed for a bid in the Big Dance as he is getting the most out of a new core of leaders.

Interestingly though Mountaineers are coming off a loss. And it came against a team, which is pretty much the Big East version UCLA Bruins aka Pittsburgh Panthers. Ben Howland's former protégé, the current Pitt Head Coach Dixon took his number 9 ranked Panthers, who play their version of "Ben Ball," went into Morgantown on Wednesday, and pounded a West Virginia team that might have been looking ahead to Saturday.

From Sportsline on the key to Panthers (and perhaps Bruins) beating the Mountaineers:

John Beilein is considered one of the best coaches in college basketball, but there comes a time when all the bells and whistles lose out to a talent gap that's unbroachable.

For the first time this season, that was the case for West Virginia, and it came against Pitt on Wednesday. The Mountaineers had lost four games before meeting the Panthers, but this was the first defeat to come in Morgantown.
West Virginia added new elements to its offense in the hopes of befuddling the Panthers, to no avail.

That exposed the Achilles' heel of the Mountaineers, which is generally true of all of Beilein's West Virginia teams. They never seem to be able to rebound, because their big men tend to drift outside, far away from the big men on other teams.

Usually, the team compensates by working the ball tirelessly to secure open shots while avoiding turnovers. Doing that mitigates the possessions lost to missed rebounding opportunities, and West Virginia wins by shooting a high percentage and forcing more turnovers than it commits.

But an opponent that has both size on the interior and the diligence to defend for the entire 35 seconds on the shot clock on the perimeter can hamstring the Mountaineers by taking away the high-percentage shot.

Well our Ben Ball warriors will have a very good chance of winning this game if they come out and play the same intense defense Panthers deployed on Wednesday. This means they can't afford to give up easy lay ups and some open looks they gave up during early mins of the game against Trojans last night. It's easier to recover from that kind of hole against a team on our home court, but I am not sure they will be able to get away with that kind early defensive lapses on road.

West Virginia offense is predicated around setting up for wide open shots. They fire lots of those 3 points bombs (and connect at a pretty healthy rate). To give some perspective Bruins have only one player who has taken more than 100 3 point shots. It's AA. He has taken 136 shots, connecting on 55 of them (40%). Shipp is next with 81 attempts, connecting at a paltry 30% rate. DC is our best 3 points shooter (32 of 62, 52%). Roll has 71 shots (35%). In contrast, at least two Mountaineers have taken more than 100 shots from beyond the 3 point line. Frank Young (6'5, 210 Senior Fwd), who is leading the team with 14.5 points a game, has launched 167 3 pointers, connecting in 72 of them. Then there is 6'6 Soph. F Alex Ruoff, who has launched 125 bombs from the outside connecting in 43 of those attempts. They have others on their roster who don't shy away from long distance either.

So the Bruins are going to have a huge task at their hands in locking up their perimeter defense. And the focus is really going to be on Shipp. Shipp against played really relaxed defense early on. And I wouldn't be surprised if Shipp's defense costs us one of these games. In fact my concern from Southern Cal game is why Westbrook didn't get much time in the second half (was he even in?). Westbrook when he comes in is always on attack mode not only on offense, but he is also tenacious on defense. If Shipp is not stepping up early on Saturday, I hope Coach Howland doesn't waste any time in going to Westbrook and Roll.

It will be interesting to see how Mata's availability and AA2's improvement impact this game. Mata was out of this game last game due to injury and I think AA2 has come pretty far along from at this point last season. He is lot more confident and aggressive inside. Bruins did have Hollins against West Virginia, but the proverbial light switch still had not gone on for Ryan at that point last year yet. Mountaineers do start 7'0 Rob Portman at Center. But Beilien went away from him early on Wednesday night as he tried to beat the Panthers with a smaller lineup. Look for Bruins to do the same thing on Saturday as they try to overpower the Mountaineers around the board.

This is not an easy game by any means. I have been worried about this game the whole season. Those guys are going to be fired up. They are not going to get chances like this to beat up on a number 2 team, which happens to be the best college basketball school in America. So they are going to have the emotion on their side.

The key once again will be defense. If the Bruins come out and play disciplined team defense, and exercise patience on offense (hopefully it doesn't take DC 10-12 mins to calm his game down) they will have a chance to keep this mid season Ben Ball momentum rolling towards a strong finish.

GO BRUINS.

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Same here

This game is definitely a very tough one. Any team that plays with discipline on both ends of the floor will be a tough opponent for our boys. Their stadium will be rocking for sure. I take some comfort in the fact that Howland knows this team and their coach, that our team is better this year than last year, while theirs is not quite as good as last year. However, they are playing at home. U$C made tons of 3-pointers on us, so we seem to be somewhat vulnerable in our perimeter defense.

I would like Shipp to catch fire tomorrow. He is always doing a lot of small things to help the team and is always active, but I don't think he has really shined at either end of the floor this year yet. If he won't play tough defense, he'd better at least be putting up a lot of points. Westbrook should see some good playing time.

I think we will prevail and pull away in the last 10 minutes of the game, but it will be a tough matchup.

by tasser10 on Feb 9, 2007 6:58 AM PST reply actions

Not so fast...

I follow WVU sports whenever I can because half of my family went there. This years WVU team is nothing like last years. The games I have watched WVU has struggled to rebound on both ends of the court. They do shoot the 3 ball pretty well though. I expect UCLA to win by 10.

by bruinelder on Feb 9, 2007 7:49 AM PST reply actions

You are correct

I'm not suggesting that we look past WVU because they are a decent opponent, but they are 1-4 againts teams in Sagarin's Top 50 (0-2 vs his Top 25), where UCLA is 9-2 against the Top 50. This ranks WVU right near SUC actually. UCLA by 7-10.

by charnaw on Feb 9, 2007 2:32 PM PST up reply actions

Not that it means anything

But Seth Davis at SI.com is predicting a WVU upset of UCLA on Saturday. He is quickly getting on my kaka list, not because he is picking the upset, which he is fully entitled to do, but because of why he thinks it will be an upset. In his words:

"I keep returning to this nagging question: What, exactly, is UCLA playing for here? The Bruins are clearly the superior team -- they now own sole possession of first place in the Pac-10 thanks to their win over USC on Wednesday -- but in the grand scheme of things this game isn't all that important to their hopes of securing a No. 1 seed."

This just goes to show that Seth has never watched a UCLA game and has no idea what the character of this team is. I could be proven wrong, but I strongly doubt that Ben Howland, or AA for that matter, would let the players take it easy for one game. They want to win EVERY game.

by tasser10 on Feb 9, 2007 3:00 PM PST up reply actions

What a complete Cornhole.

I hope Howland gets ahold of this rubbish and pins it up somewhere on Saturday.

Yeah, the Bruins don't want to exact revenge for last years heart-breaker, or play well in front of a rare, national TV audience, or represent UCLA and the PAC-10 conference. Yeah, that sounds about right.

Actually Seth, this will be one of the few chances for people East of the Rockies to watch the Bruins this year. If we play poorly and lose to an unranked team, the loss will certainly have at least some impact on our chances for securing a #1 seed. On the other hand, a solid road win will just bring that #1 seed that much closer...

by norcalbruin95 on Feb 9, 2007 3:26 PM PST up reply actions

Correction?

"I don't believe the Bruins have a lost a game since that loss"

I think you mean home game? If so, I think you are correct.

by Free the 16 on Feb 9, 2007 9:28 AM PST reply actions

Yes

I meant home games.

by Nestor on Feb 9, 2007 10:01 AM PST up reply actions

Bruins at WVU

My concern about the Bruins is their focus. They are in the midst of a good conference race, and then to travel to, since I have been there, way out in the middle the hills, can be a challenge. I like them better at home during these mid-term games. Having said that, I too have faith in BH that they will come out and do what it takes to give themselves the best chance to win the game.
Bill

BillSouthBay

by Mensgym on Feb 9, 2007 9:34 AM PST reply actions

My early keys to look for (for me, anyway):

(1) Josh HAS to be entirely focused and attentive on D from the opening tip. WVA runs a ridiculous amount fo screens, baseline cuts, and seals to free up shooters. If we lose a man for more than a half-second, he'll get loose and open. You just KNOW that WVA is going to try to free guys away from Arron's nose-picking defense and Luc's newfound 3-point blocking prowess. Josh has to be ready to switch and rotate without getting turned around and losing the ball. If Josh goes matador, it'll be a looooong day.

(2) Darren needs to attack the paint from the get-go. To echo our sentiments from Wednesday, we can't wait for Darren to roll in late. He has to use his quickness to tire out WVA mentally and physically so they don't have the legs to jump-shoot late in the game.

(3) Big man presence INSIDE. We cannot afford to have our guys commit early fouls rushing out to crowd shooters. I can just imagine WVA bigs setting up their bigs to fake the three, then drive in to foul out our out-of-control bigs. I don't care if they're bigs hit a half-dozen threes, as long as our bigs get 2 dozen boards and stop easy lay-ins.

MIM

by Meriones on Feb 9, 2007 9:55 AM PST reply actions