Fun With Numbers - Predicting the Pac-10 Tournament

Over on Ken Pomeroy's website kenpom.com, Ken generates a set of pythagarean projected winning percentages for every Division I Men's Basketball team which then can be used to predict the outcome of games.

This week, he's solicited readers to submit calculations for the Conference Tournaments, and I thought it would be fun to do those calculations for the Pac-10 Tourney.  Yes, that's very geeky, I know.

Having been to the Pac-10 Tourney at Staples Center before and observed and participated in the rooting, it seems fair to treat both UCLA and USC as home teams in the calculations.  So I adjusted their pythagarean winning percentage and used that number in my calculations.

So here's what happens to UCLA in the Pac-10 Tournament....

In the quarterfinals, if UCLA is facing Cal, they have a 93.1% chance of winning, against Oregon State, the chance is 98.1%.

In the semifinals, UCLA has an 83.1% chance of beating Oregon, or a 76.4% chance of beating Arizona.

In the finals, UCLA could face any of these five teams -

Southern Cal      77.9%
Stanford          86.8%
Washington State  80.2%
Washington        88.9%
Arizona State     96.2%

Overall, UCLA is a heavy favorite to win the whole thing.  The odds of that happening are 60.4%

I really think we have a much better than 78% chance of beating justSC, but you know, they do have that Pac-10 third place banner to put up in the Galen Center.

Full odds:
Chances of being
Team              Quarters    Semis    Finals    Champion
1. UCLA              100%       94.1%    74.4%     60.4%
2. WSU               100%       71.2%    36.9%     10.1%
3. Southern Cal   100%       65.2%    38.3%    11.5%
4. Oregon           100%       39.7%     8.1%      3.8%
5. Arizona          100%       60.3%    16.3%      9.4%
6. Stanford         100%       34.8%    15.3%     3.0%
7. Washington     76.1%      25.5%     9.0%     1.5%
8. Cal                79.5%       5.5%     1.2%      0.3%
9. Oregon State   20.5%       0.4%     0.06%      0.005%
10. Arizona State 23.9%       3.3%     0.5%     0.03%

I'm looking forward to the games.

<em>This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of BruinsNation's (BN) editors. It does reflect the views of this particular fan though, which is as important as the views of BN's editors.</em>

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