Over on Ken Pomeroy's website kenpom.com, Ken generates a set of pythagarean projected winning percentages for every Division I Men's Basketball team which then can be used to predict the outcome of games.

This week, he's solicited readers to submit calculations for the Conference Tournaments, and I thought it would be fun to do those calculations for the Pac-10 Tourney.  Yes, that's very geeky, I know.

Having been to the Pac-10 Tourney at Staples Center before and observed and participated in the rooting, it seems fair to treat both UCLA and USC as home teams in the calculations.  So I adjusted their pythagarean winning percentage and used that number in my calculations.

So here's what happens to UCLA in the Pac-10 Tournament....

In the quarterfinals, if UCLA is facing Cal, they have a 93.1% chance of winning, against Oregon State, the chance is 98.1%.

In the semifinals, UCLA has an 83.1% chance of beating Oregon, or a 76.4% chance of beating Arizona.

In the finals, UCLA could face any of these five teams -

Southern Cal      77.9%
Stanford          86.8%
Washington State  80.2%
Washington        88.9%
Arizona State     96.2%

Overall, UCLA is a heavy favorite to win the whole thing.  The odds of that happening are 60.4%

I really think we have a much better than 78% chance of beating justSC, but you know, they do have that Pac-10 third place banner to put up in the Galen Center.

Full odds:
                         Chances of being
Team              Quarters    Semis    Finals    Champion
1. UCLA              100%       94.1%    74.4%     60.4%
2. WSU               100%       71.2%    36.9%     10.1%
3. Southern Cal   100%       65.2%    38.3%    11.5%
4. Oregon           100%       39.7%     8.1%      3.8%
5. Arizona          100%       60.3%    16.3%      9.4%
6. Stanford         100%       34.8%    15.3%     3.0%
7. Washington     76.1%      25.5%     9.0%     1.5%
8. Cal                79.5%       5.5%     1.2%      0.3%
9. Oregon State   20.5%       0.4%     0.06%      0.005%
10. Arizona State 23.9%       3.3%     0.5%     0.03%

I'm looking forward to the games.