OMG! USC is the Best Team Ever!!
You may have seen this a week or so ago. Yes, amid all the pre-season hyperventilating about Southern Cal, our friends at SMQ annointed the Trojans as Pac-10 royalty for, uhm, forever:
I suppose this type of
Given how UCLA has underperformed during the last four years, I'm not surprised people don't give the Bruins much respect. We are all too aware of the program's shortcomings, including, as SMQ puts it, the "infathomable letdowns" under Dorrell, and inconsistency amounting to "a cultural problem."
But, let's get back to the horseh!t other stuff for a while. There's no denying Southern Cal's success of late. But, to go beyond this recognition, and basically crown them perpetual Pac-10 champs is just short sighted and sort of silly. Maybe SMQ was making these same kinds of statements about UCLA during its eight year domination of the rivalry game just a few short years ago, but somehow I doubt it.
Of course, we've seen his argument before. Just ask the nearest delusional Dorrell supporter why we haven't been playing better on Saturdays. Without sensing even a bit of irony, they'll tell you to not blame the coach: blame the players (as they are beginning to do this year by whining about our stocked wide receiver corps or our experienced backfield).
Yes, for the upteamth time, the tired old talent excuse. The same excuse we've debunked time, after time, after time.
Sure, Sourthern Cal has obviously done very well in recruiting. But does the data really support the conclusion that a properly coached team with UCLA's talented roster and other natural advantages isn't even in the hunt in the Pac-10? Please. That's nonsense. To illustrate, here's the table from SMQ's post:
| Pac 10 Win % | Avg. Margin | Avg. PS#* | |
| Southern Cal | .909 | + 21.2 | 16.9 |
| California | .697 | + 13.7 | 81.3 |
| Oregon | .606 | + 2.8 | 76.9 |
| UCLA | .576 | – 0.2 | 66.4 |
| Oregon State | .546 | + 0.7 | 100.1 |
| Arizona State | .455 | – 2.7 | 79.9 |
| Wash. State | .424 | – 2.9 | 152.0 |
| Arizona | .273 | – 10.7 | 77.8 |
| Stanford | .273 | – 12.9 | 93.7 |
| Washington | .242 | – 9.9 | 150.6 |
* - Starters only, according to the ratings and depth charts of Phil Steele. There are ambiguities and discrepancies in this number, and they are not significant.
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A couple things are striking about this data.
First, it's pretty clear that UCLA has had more than enough talent to bring home better than the 6 and 7 wins seasons we've seen for 3 of the past 4 years. As we've discussed before, UCLA enjoys the second best group of talent in the Pac-10. So, as much as some would have you believe that UCLA didn't (or doesn't) belong on the same field as Southern Cal, at least in terms of talent, that assertion is just BS.
Second, that talent, though not as gaudy as Sourthern Cal's, isn't so far back as to make the conference race, as SMQ suggests, essentially predetermined (see 13-9). Ignoring for a second any questions about talent utilization and development, the raw incoming talent has been more than enough to get the job done.
Third, this further demonstrates how, at least based upon this one measure, UCLA has underperformed under Karl Dorrell. As we've discussed before, you see how UCLA, the team with the second most talent, has the fourth best conference record. Cal, on the other hand, has the 6th best talent, yet comes in with the 2nd best conference record. Sure, a lot of things can explain that. One of them -- a rather big one I might add -- is coaching.
Of course, many a Dorrellista were probably thrilled to read SMQ's post. It just confirms one of their favorite excuses for KD's abysmal performance in the biggest game of the year. And it also probably makes the shamefully stunted expectations of this crowd somehow easier to live with.
In the end, I suppose I'll try not to sweat this stuff. It's the cost of doing business in the KD era. And it's what you'd expect from someone, even as impressive as SMQ, who tries to cover 119 teams all at once (by the way, SMQ, though you may have just gotten the names mixed up, Chris Markey's thumb is just fine).
GO BRUINS.
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Well done
Yeah, I know that was a different sport. But same factors are in play. Given the talent we always get because of being located in the backyard of the most talent rich hotbed in the nation (and I am not talking about our co-eds), our profile, and yes our tradition, all we need is the right coach, and all this BS about SuC's eternal dominance will become history.
I guess this kind of slip happens when one tries to become a pundit offering his thoughts on every single team w/o looking closer into what is actually going on.
Well done again.
by Nestor on
Aug 21, 2007 9:08 AM PDT
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Interpretation
Based on talent, coaching and the past five years of USC success in conference play, I don't see that SMQ's assessment of USC is off-base. I do believe that he might be guilty, as so many talking (writing?) heads are, of perhaps overrating USC because of all the five-star recruits available to plug the holes left on the O-line and at receiver, but given the caliber of coaching coupled with the returning talent (particularly on defense) in South Central, it's hard not to see USC as the favorite this year. If we had a competent coach, this would not be so obvious a pick given our returning talent, but we have Dorrell, and there ya go.
by ucladj89 on
Aug 21, 2007 12:38 PM PDT
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Obviously
That said, I didn't write this just to mess with SMQ, I (also) did it to talk about the recruiting data he compiled, which I thought was interesting given that it used PS ratings, rather than the normal rivals/scout stars.
Of course, Southern Cal is talented. And, yes, I understand why they are uniformly regarded as the favorites to win the conference (particularly when everyone discounts UCLA because, I believe, a lack of confidence in Dorrell). But, the hype is pretty freaking out of control when virtually every pundit not affiliated with a traditional rival picks them to win the NC, and doesn't show even the slightest hesitation with the hyperbole.
by Menelaus on
Aug 21, 2007 12:48 PM PDT
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Conventional Analysis
Look no one here denies the fact that Southern Cal is an elite program. They have all the talent in the world for sure. But what SMQ's analysis misses (similar to the overwhelming garden variety analysis we can read anywhere in the traditional media) is that there are legitimate questions about the Trojans.
Sure Pom Pom is a great defensive mind. But what about his offense? No one knows exactly what kind of offensive coach Steve Sarkasian will turn out to be as the sole pilot the pro-set Trojan offense, which didn't do so against Walker's pro-set defense last year. All the Trojans did last year was line up their 5 star All Americans across the scrimmage and dared the other teams to come and get them. Well Walker did unleashing our defense like bunch of pit bulls all over the Rose Bowl turf. And by doing that Walker also gave a blue print lots of DCs around the country, who will most likely not the same mistake of the Michigan DC at the Rose Bowl, who failed to take the battle right to the Trojans.
As I mentioned last week there are holes in the Trojan OL and I am not sure Mr. Booty has the same poise and cool as the Ball Room dancer to deliver in clutch. I still think two years ago the Trojans coasted because of Ungodly talents of Mr. Free House and the Ball Room dancer.
This year not only they are missing a proven playmaker at the RB and now also at the WR position given the departures of Mr. Free Rent and Steve Smith.
Trojans will have to earn it on the field. Sure they are favorites to win the conference but to "hail" them as "kings" in the tone of Herbie comes across as a little lazy analysis.
And we expect a little more from "pundits" in blogosphere who have earned their stripes for chiming in various topics in the world of college football in a more nuanced manner compared to the wankers we are used to listening or reading in the traditional media. Otherwise, if we can't tell the difference what's the use of having bloggers providing "anaylsis" in this world of new media. I can get the conventional take straight from Herbie's mouth and LOL at him later.
by Nestor on
Aug 21, 2007 3:15 PM PDT
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Bingo
by CAJason80 on
Aug 21, 2007 3:57 PM PDT
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Exactly
by Nestor on
Aug 21, 2007 6:21 PM PDT
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Losing their only two proven receivers to the NFL
by McCloskey on
Aug 22, 2007 9:39 AM PDT
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10 RBs
Also, they manhandled Michigan in the Rose Bowl, but people forget that Michigan's motivation level was not exactly very high after losing to Ohio State yet again and losing a chance to play in the national championship.
by tasser10 on
Aug 22, 2007 11:37 AM PDT
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That is true
Essentially, the "key" adjustment was Bootylicious throwing on almost every single down in the second half. And it worked to great success.
It would be nice if we had a program which also made nice adjustments at the half. But that would take creativity. It's much more important to consistently and religiously (and blindly) follow our time-tested strategy of run (up the middle)-run (off tackle)-short pass-punt on every series of downs.
by Barnes2JJ on
Aug 22, 2007 12:01 PM PDT
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No One a Stays on Top For Ever
It wasn't that long ago that Washington was a very dominate team in the Pac 10. Based on the data in this post, they have had the worst winning percentage in the conference since 2003. Conversely, Cal was a traditional also ran. Look at that team in the Tedford era. I remember talk in the 70's about dropping the Oregon and Washington schools from the Pac 8 because, other than Washington, they were not competitive with UCLA, $c, Stanford and even Cal.
Can anyone catch $c this year? How about the in the next couple of years? Absofuckinglutely! Injuries, upsets, staffing changes, over confidence, or a variety of other reasons can change this situation in a flash. I also remember that after winning two national championships with virtually the same team, UCLA did not win the NC in basketball in 1974 despite having the best coach ever, the best college center ever and the guy that was named NBA rookie of the year the next season.
There may be long odds, but the only lock in sports is, there is no lock.
by Bruin77 on
Aug 21, 2007 1:20 PM PDT
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Wow
by PopnFried on
Aug 22, 2007 11:01 PM PDT
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