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OMG! USC is the Best Team Ever!!

You may have seen this a week or so ago.  Yes, amid all the pre-season hyperventilating about Southern Cal, our friends at SMQ annointed the Trojans as Pac-10 royalty for, uhm, forever:

The initial goal of this post was to ask whether anyone had a shot at catching USC, but that's a boring exercise on a direct path to hyperbole (the answer, of course, is a decisive no: aside from the routine three-touchdown beatings and the outrageous advantage in the crucial right hand column above, the Trojans have finished #1, #1, #2 and #4 in the AP poll in the relevant seasons and return more game experience than in any of Carroll's first six years). Southern Cal is the king and will remain the king, hail, hail, etc.

I suppose this type of horseh!t stuff is born of four years of Dorrell-led mediocrity.  And this obviously isn't lost on SMQ, who sums up his deep, unabiding respect for KD thusly:
I suppose I just have that little faith in Karl Dorrell fielding a serious challenger, born of the same doubt I had in Bob Toledo before him. Toledo's last three teams were 3-5, 4-4 and 4-4 in-conference, and Dorrell's first four are 4-4, 4-4, 6-2 and 5-4, where the 6-2 team was cumulatively outscored in those games by five touchdowns. Hey, that's UCLA.

Given how UCLA has underperformed during the last four years, I'm not surprised people don't give the Bruins much respect.  We are all too aware of the program's shortcomings, including, as SMQ puts it, the "infathomable letdowns" under Dorrell, and inconsistency amounting to "a cultural problem."

But, let's get back to the horseh!t other stuff for a while.  There's no denying Southern Cal's success of late.  But, to go beyond this recognition, and basically crown them perpetual Pac-10 champs is just short sighted and sort of silly.  Maybe SMQ was making these same kinds of statements about UCLA during its eight year domination of the rivalry game just a few short years ago, but somehow I doubt it.

Of course, we've seen his argument before.  Just ask the nearest delusional Dorrell supporter why we haven't been playing better on Saturdays.  Without sensing even a bit of irony, they'll tell you to not blame the coach: blame the players (as they are beginning to do this year by whining about our stocked wide receiver corps or our experienced backfield).

Yes, for the upteamth time, the tired old talent excuse.  The same excuse we've debunked time, after time, after time.

Sure, Sourthern Cal has obviously done very well in recruiting.  But does the data really support the conclusion that a properly coached team with UCLA's talented roster and other natural advantages isn't even in the hunt in the Pac-10?   Please.   That's nonsense.  To illustrate, here's the table from SMQ's post:

Pac Ten Since 2003
Pac 10 Win % Avg. Margin Avg. PS#*
Southern Cal .909 + 21.2 16.9
California .697 + 13.7 81.3
Oregon .606 + 2.8 76.9
UCLA .576 – 0.2 66.4
Oregon State .546 + 0.7 100.1
Arizona State .455 – 2.7 79.9
Wash. State .424 – 2.9 152.0
Arizona .273 – 10.7 77.8
Stanford .273 – 12.9 93.7
Washington .242 – 9.9 150.6

* - Starters only, according to the ratings and depth charts of Phil Steele. There are ambiguities and discrepancies in this number, and they are not significant.
- - -

A couple things are striking about this data.  

First, it's pretty clear that UCLA has had more than enough talent to bring home better than the 6 and 7 wins seasons we've seen for 3 of the past 4 years.  As we've discussed before, UCLA enjoys the second best group of talent in the Pac-10.  So, as much as some would have you believe that UCLA didn't (or doesn't) belong on the same field as Southern Cal, at least in terms of talent, that assertion is just BS.

Second, that talent, though not as gaudy as Sourthern Cal's, isn't so far back as to make the conference race, as SMQ suggests, essentially predetermined (see 13-9).  Ignoring for a second any questions about talent utilization and development, the raw incoming talent has been more than enough to get the job done.

Third, this further demonstrates how, at least based upon this one measure, UCLA has underperformed under Karl Dorrell.  As we've discussed before, you see how UCLA, the team with the second most talent, has the fourth best conference record.  Cal, on the other hand, has the 6th best talent, yet comes in with the 2nd best conference record.  Sure, a lot of things can explain that.  One of them -- a rather big one I might add -- is coaching.

Of course, many a Dorrellista were probably thrilled to read SMQ's post.  It just confirms one of their favorite excuses for KD's abysmal performance in the biggest game of the year.  And it also probably makes the shamefully stunted expectations of this crowd somehow easier to live with.

In the end, I suppose I'll try not to sweat this stuff.  It's the cost of doing business in the KD era.  And it's what you'd expect from someone, even as impressive as SMQ, who tries to cover 119 teams all at once (by the way, SMQ, though you may have just gotten the names mixed up, Chris Markey's thumb is just fine).  

GO BRUINS.

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Well done
I still remember all the pundits pronouncing how UCLA basketball would never again compete against Viagra Lute in the Post Wooden era (during those dispiriting Lavin years).

Yeah, I know that was a different sport. But same factors are in play. Given the talent we always get because of being located in the backyard of the most talent rich hotbed in the nation (and I am not talking about our co-eds), our profile, and yes our tradition, all we need is the right coach, and all this BS about SuC's eternal dominance will become history.

I guess this kind of slip happens when one tries to become a pundit offering his thoughts on every single team w/o looking closer into what is actually going on.

Well done again.

by Nestor on Aug 21, 2007 9:08 AM PDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Interpretation
I suppose it is a matter of interpretation, but I didn't read SMQ's analysis as a coronation of USC in perpetuity. The post was SMQ's assessment of the Pac-10 for this season, and I understood it as posing the question as to whether anyone could catch USC this year. Of course, anything is possible once the games start getting played, but based strictly on paper and the returning players, USC is going to be very good.

Based on talent, coaching and the past five years of USC success in conference play, I don't see that SMQ's assessment of USC is off-base. I do believe that he might be guilty, as so many talking (writing?) heads are, of perhaps overrating USC because of all the five-star recruits available to plug the holes left on the O-line and at receiver, but given the caliber of coaching coupled with the returning talent (particularly on defense) in South Central, it's hard not to see USC as the favorite this year. If we had a competent coach, this would not be so obvious a pick given our returning talent, but we have Dorrell, and there ya go.  

by ucladj89 on Aug 21, 2007 12:38 PM PDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Obviously
I read it different than you did.  On second read, I can see that your interpretation may be valid, but that's not the impression I got when he spoke of the conference being under "under merciless Trojan rule."  

That said, I didn't write this just to mess with SMQ, I (also) did it to talk about the recruiting data he compiled, which I thought was interesting given that it used PS ratings, rather than the normal rivals/scout stars.  

Of course, Southern Cal is talented.  And, yes, I understand why they are uniformly regarded as the favorites to win the conference (particularly when everyone discounts UCLA because, I believe, a lack of confidence in Dorrell).  But, the hype is pretty freaking out of control when virtually every pundit not affiliated with a traditional rival picks them to win the NC, and doesn't show even the slightest hesitation with the hyperbole.

by Menelaus on Aug 21, 2007 12:48 PM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Conventional Analysis
SMQ's coronation of the Trojans had the same tone as Kirk Herbstreit's pronouncements on national TV, when he posited last year during the Nebraska-Southern Cal broadcast that USC was going to go "right through" UCLA. And IIRC he repeated that assertion more than once that night for emphasis.

Look no one here denies the fact that Southern Cal is an elite program. They have all the talent in the world for sure. But what SMQ's analysis misses (similar to the overwhelming garden variety analysis we can read anywhere in the traditional media) is that there are legitimate questions about the Trojans.

Sure Pom Pom is a great defensive mind. But what about his offense? No one knows exactly what kind of offensive coach Steve Sarkasian will turn out to be as the sole pilot the pro-set Trojan offense, which didn't do so against Walker's pro-set defense last year. All the Trojans did last year was line up their 5 star All Americans across the scrimmage and dared the other teams to come and get them. Well Walker did unleashing our defense like bunch of pit bulls all over the Rose Bowl turf. And by doing that Walker also gave a blue print lots of DCs around the country, who will most likely not the same mistake of the Michigan DC at the Rose Bowl, who failed to take the battle right to the Trojans.

As I mentioned last week there are holes in the Trojan OL and I am not sure Mr. Booty has the same poise and cool as the Ball Room dancer to deliver in clutch.  I still think two years ago the Trojans coasted because of Ungodly talents of Mr. Free House and the Ball Room dancer.

This year not only they are missing a proven playmaker at the RB and now also at the WR position given the departures of Mr. Free Rent and Steve Smith.

Trojans will have to earn it on the field. Sure they are favorites to win the conference but to "hail" them as "kings" in the tone of Herbie comes across as a little lazy analysis.

And we expect a little more from "pundits" in blogosphere who have earned their stripes for chiming in various topics in the world of college football in a more nuanced manner compared to the wankers we are used to listening or reading in the traditional media. Otherwise, if we can't tell the difference what's the use of having bloggers providing "anaylsis" in this world of new media. I can get the conventional take straight from Herbie's mouth and LOL at him later.

by Nestor on Aug 21, 2007 3:15 PM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Bingo
I think USC has a lot more offensive questions than anyone's really ready to admit. Sure, Booty looked good against Michigan in the Rose Bowl and I guess that's what everyone remembers, but it's not like the guy is Matt Leinart or Carson Palmer reincarnate. He's not nearly as good as either of those two - at least, not yet. And frankly, he doesn't have as many *proven* weapons as Palmer or Leinart had going in to their senior years. The receiving core is even more of a question mark. Hazelton and Turner are good, but they're not really game tested. And Chauncey Washington is clearly no Reggie Bush. And despite the plethora of talent that USC has at tailback, a bevy of 5-star recruits doesn't necessairly equal immediate success (for a fine example of this, please see Georgia's backfield since Herschel Walker left). Comparatively speaking, it's a weaker (though still very strong) Trojan team than the ones in 2003 or 2005 - and hell, even the 2005 USC team ended up losing to Texas. They're not unbeatable, and I think the hype machine tends to overlook a lot of these question marks.

by CAJason80 on Aug 21, 2007 3:57 PM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Exactly
I am not predicting a dooms day scenario for Trojies. I don't expect them to lose 4-5 games. But I don't think it is going to be a huge shock if this team ends up losing 2-3 games. Talent is nothing until its proven on the field.

by Nestor on Aug 21, 2007 6:21 PM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Losing their only two proven receivers to the NFL
couldn't have made them a better team.  Losing their multi-year starting Center to the NFL couldn't have made their average O-Line better. They lost twice last year, and there is no reason to think that their offense got better by losing 3 All-Americans.  Their defense should be very good, but what reason is there to think their offense got better through subtraction.

by McCloskey on Aug 22, 2007 9:39 AM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

10 RBs
Or whatever the number is. People are assuming that U$C is stacked like that at every position, with de facto all-americans, the hype just spreads for no reason. Never mind that none of those guys are proven playmakers. Booty was good last year but not great.

Also, they manhandled Michigan in the Rose Bowl, but people forget that Michigan's motivation level was not exactly very high after losing to Ohio State yet again and losing a chance to play in the national championship.

by tasser10 on Aug 22, 2007 11:37 AM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

That is true
and I'm the last person to glorify SuC for any reason, but that game was pretty much a stalemate in the first half.  IMHO, the SuC coaching staff made outstanding adjustments in the second half and Michigan never caught on.  

Essentially, the "key" adjustment was Bootylicious throwing on almost every single down in the second half.  And it worked to great success.  

It would be nice if we had a program which also made nice adjustments at the half.  But that would take creativity.  It's much more important to consistently and religiously (and blindly) follow our time-tested strategy of run (up the middle)-run (off tackle)-short pass-punt on every series of downs.

by Barnes2JJ on Aug 22, 2007 12:01 PM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

No One a Stays on Top For Ever
I think Nestor's point vis a vis, Arizona Basketball, is a good parallel to the recent success at $c.  There is no denying that $c has had a great run the last four years.  But, this is just a peak in the ever evolving landscape of sports.  Sports is known for momentum shifts.  The impetuous for change can vary, but change is inevitable.  

It wasn't that long ago that Washington was a very dominate team in the Pac 10.  Based on the data in this post, they have had the worst winning percentage in the conference since 2003.  Conversely, Cal was a traditional also ran.  Look at that team in the Tedford era.  I remember talk in the 70's about dropping the Oregon and Washington schools from the Pac 8 because, other than Washington, they were not competitive with UCLA, $c, Stanford and even Cal.

Can anyone catch $c this year?  How about the in the next couple of years?  Absofuckinglutely!  Injuries, upsets, staffing changes, over confidence, or a variety of other reasons can change this situation in a flash.  I also remember that after winning two national championships with virtually the same team, UCLA did not win the NC in basketball in 1974 despite having the best coach ever, the best college center ever and the guy that was named NBA rookie of the year the next season.

There may be long odds, but the only lock in sports is, there is no lock.

by Bruin77 on Aug 21, 2007 1:20 PM PDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Wow
This is a featured post on SB Nation's home page!  Nice work!
This is what's pop'n

by PopnFried on Aug 22, 2007 11:01 PM PDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

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