Vegas Doesn't Believe in Wazzu

by insomniacslounge on Jan 11, 2008 4:44 PM PST

The line for Saturday's Washington State game at Pauley just went up, and the Bruins are a SEVEN point favorite!

I love my Bruins as much as anyone (and I have the bad back from camping outside of Pauley Pavilion for four years to prove it), but that line looks way off to me. We might have to worry about limited minutes from Darren Collison and Mbah a Moute who are nursing injuries; and then there's the little matter of Washington State being a really, really good team.

Coincidentally, I'm heading out to Vegas tonight. So my question is: is it acceptable to bet against your own team if you feel you've identified a bad line in your opponent's favor? It wouldn't compel me to root against the Bruins- that just wouldn't happen - but objectively speaking, money on Wazzu looks like a good bet.

(Full disclosure: I have bet against UCLA twice in my life and won both times. Each time, I was labelled a "sell out" by my friends, and perhaps rightfully so. I responded by taking my winnings and donating them to the Alumni Scholarship fund to assuage my guilt.)

Of course, it could be that my premise is wrong to begin with. What do other people think about the seven point line? Do you guys see UCLA running away w/ it?

Finally, if gambling talk is prohibited here, then I apologize for this thread.

This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of BruinsNation's (BN) editors. It does reflect the views of this particular fan though, which is as important as the views of BN's editors.

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We will Win -- Maybe by less than 7

I think that's a big spread considering the way WSU plays. Although they have been scoring more, lately, with our tight D, they will probably take longer to find those "perfect" opportunities that are the key to their O.

No matter what, we are always better with a healthy Collison than without him.

But, even if he plays limited minutes, or not at all, we should be OK. Better against a WSU style team than one that plays faster. LRM's defense, yesterday, was incredible. And, everyone else is getting the job done. I think we can win without DC, if we have to.

That said, I really want him back healthy both for us and for him. He is a truly great kid and I wish him a run of games, to the next banner, without any more injuries.

sjh

by Class of 66 on Jan 11, 2008 4:57 PM PST reply actions

Betting lines

Betting lines don't necessarily reflect who Vegas thinks is going to win. Their goal is to pick a line where 50% will bet on one side, 50% on the other side. So they picked Wazzou + 7 because they think that line will make 50% of bettors bet on each side, insuring Vegas makes money no matter what happens.
I've never bet against UCLA, but I've bet against my favorite baseball team, the Angels (And I'm talking only about betting in Vegas or some other place where it's legal, of course). I felt a little guilty about it first, but not when I went to collect my winnings. Use your knowledge of your team to your benefit, not to your disadvantage (don't be a homer about it).

by gilbert on Jan 11, 2008 5:00 PM PST reply actions

It's probably the schedule

As good as they look, I think people still have the perception that they haven't proven themselves yet. And objectively, I think the only decent team they've played is Gonzaga. That doesn't mean that they can't step it up against better competition (us) but they have not yet proven that they can. I mean, let's face it, SUC sucks and UW isn't very good either, and those are two of the best teams they've played this year.

by Tydides on Jan 11, 2008 5:03 PM PST reply actions

of course we'll wiin

you know you can win both ways, you aren't betting against the Bruins, you're just betting that we wont win by more than 7.

by jochc19 on Jan 11, 2008 5:08 PM PST reply actions

ha! I bet against us everytime

Just so I'm sure to be kinda happy in case we lose.

In vegas for the vegas bowl, we had 2 games that day, I bet against us twice, and of course, I lost both bets.

The basketball game was great...Venetian sports book packed with UCLA fans, I thought I had everything wrapped up with an 11 point UCLA lead, Michigan ball with 45 seconds left, (spread was 13) but then Michigan turns the ball over twice and Shipp's 360 dunk with 4 seconds left puts us up 15 and covers. Everyone went nuts. Michigan misses a 3 at the buzzer... OH well, my bad.

And then football, double whammy. Lose the game, but beat the 6.5 spread. Oh well. I'm an awful bettor.

by TheTJCummingsEra on Jan 11, 2008 5:50 PM PST reply actions

The Goodfellows

know what they're doing when setting odds--far more than we do. Observe how often they are close to the mark. Also observe how much home court means in College BB. Only the vastly superior teams are favored on the road. This means UCLA-Wazzu would be near even at Wazzu or on a neutral court. I would imagine the spread would be greater but for the injuries.

by TfXc79 on Jan 11, 2008 7:16 PM PST reply actions

Value

I find huge value on Washington State, and on the sports betting website I frequent (www.covers.com) I have been posting about it all week. I actually predicted a line of anywhere from UCLA -5.5 to -7, seeing as the line for the WSU/Southern Cal game was Southern Cal -2 (!). I jumped all over WSU HARD on that game and won big obviously.

I don't see the game between us and the Cougars being any more than a two possession difference, so if I were to get down on this game it would once again be on Washington State.

I think it is acceptable to bet against your team so long as you are in a situation where you can root for them to win and still win money. If you would have done that against Washington and bet on the Huskies, you would be a double winner.

by MbahABako on Jan 11, 2008 8:20 PM PST reply actions

Bet the money line

You will probably get about 60 for a 50 bet. And you don't have to pay the juice.

by cmcbruin on Jan 11, 2008 9:11 PM PST reply actions

I Bet Against...

us ONCE in my life. In the 2006 football season I was in Vegas, I believe we were favored over Oregon State. I justify this due to the fact that I had ZERO respect for the coaching staff. We defeated Oregon State that day and I lost my bet. That said, I would NEVER bet against a Howland coached UCLA basketball squad. I don't care if we were favored by 30 points, I have too much respect for this coaching staff and this team to ever place a bet against them. But thats just me...

by bruin8uclap on Jan 11, 2008 10:32 PM PST reply actions