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On the Horizon: A Distant Look Ahead to Hoops Season

At this point in time, I am not looking with dread to our next football game.  Instead, I am calmly looking at our gridiron guys as a work in progress, with progress actually being made on third-down execution and defensive adjustments, even if not always in the won-loss column.

That being said, with CBH holding court at Media Day this week, I am doing my early warning system comment NOW.

Sincere and honest disclaimer — if LMRAM had come back for his senior year, along with everyone else we've got on the roster right now, I’d already have $50 down on us in Vegas to bring home Banner 12. Yep, d*** serious. 

Even now, I am still willing to Sharpie (no pencils here, people) us in all the way to the Final Four, aka, the Ben Howland Invitiational, barring injury.

Yeah, I said it.

However, last BB season, I sounded a bit of a warning bell re: our lack of perimeter depth.  In doing so, I set out one of my pet theories on what's needed for a championship defense:

I have believed for several years that to have an effective defense — not necessarily a Detroit Piston “Bad Boys” D, but an EFFECTIVE one — you need some basic elements. In brief, they are:

(A) INTERCEPTOR — a guy with quickness to disrupt the opposing PG and keep them from setting up right away. Preferably your PG or other good handles guy who can steal the ball and score at the other end on his own.
e.g., Collison last year, Byron Scott on the Showtime Lakers, Tyus Edney on the ’95 Champs.

(B) SEEKER — Like Potter on a broom, your go-to chaser guy. If the other team has a freakish shooter off screens, or a crazy slash and finisher, you send THIS GUY to cuff him and stuff him.
e.g., Coop on the Showtime Lakers; Kobe and/or Rick Fox during the Bling Era; AA last year.

<b>(C) INTERCHANGEABLE WINGS — You know the types. 6-4 to 6-8 guys, long-armed, absurdly fast quick-twitch muscles. Guys who can double the post and still get back to the shooters. Guys who, if they switch off on pick and rolls or fighting through screens, can pick up the other guy’s man with no worries.</b> Can include your seeker or even your interceptor.
e.g., Charles O’Bannon and Toby Bailey and Ed; Jordan and Pippen and Harper; Fox and Horry and Kobe.

(D) BACKSTOP — Shotblocking is great, but not entirely essential, depending on the team. However, the backstop has to take up space (by muscle or plain mass), control that space (by length or by strength), and make other guys regret going into the surrounding airspace (block ‘em or rock’ em).
e.g., Hollins in ’06, Mata in ’07.

Looking ahead, we’ve got the top-flight, prototype NCAA Division I interceptor in Collison -- long-arms, mental toughness, and sprinter's speed.  Gotta love it.

We’ve got a seeker in the making in Jrue -- pound-for-pound toughness, off-the-ground athleticism.  Only a frosh, but the raw tools are looking like they're in place.

We’ve got the makings of a full-time backstop in future Cameroonian President AA2 (who reminds me more and more of former old-style CBA and New York Knick player Anthony Mason) and potential backstops in Morgan and Gordon.  Even the bulked up Keefe will give us some needed thickness to bump up and rough up opposing slashers.

Interchangeable wings?  Well... that’s my early, early, why-are-you-even-worrying-about-this-now question is: DO WE HAVE THE WINGS? 

As much as we have added to our roster in terms of sheer numbers, the absence of wingspan is a little worrisome.

IIRC, here’s our height distribution:
6-0 —> DC
6-1 —> Jerime
6-3 —> Jrue
6-5 —> Shipp, Roll, Lee
6-8 —> Keefe, AA2, Drago, Gordon
6-10 —> Morgan

Again, this is VERY early, but I’m wondering if we have enough guys in the middle of the size-speed ratio.  You know the type -- 6-4 to 6-8 guys who maybe have some thicks, but sure-as-there's-a-heaven have the QUICKS.

For those that think I'm overestimating this, remember: In 2006 and 2007, Brewer was a 6-9 SF dropping 3s on us, and he was shooting OVER our guys.   In 2008, Memphis rotated a couple of 6-6 and 6-7 swingmen to bang against or shoot over our sorely depleted perimeter rotation. 

This year, we have more bodies on the wings, but are they enough?  We have:

Josh -- A 6-5 senior trying to regain his target touch, coming off his first healthy summer in three years.  He may be the biggest gun in our arsenal, if his targeting system is back online.  The question is, will he have the wheels to guard the perimeter, or will he be only a stationary cannon?

Roll -- Another senior, now coming off foot surgery.  Shooters shoot -- but can he rotate out to shooters? 

Lee -- 6-5, God bless him.  But can he pick up our defensive demands in time?

We've got a wealth of talent for a 6-3-and-under league.  We've got a solid, if not immediately spectacular, lineup at the power spots. 

But in the equally-important 6-4 to 6-7 arena, we're still fairly shorthanded, or short-armed.  Guys with added height -- and wingspan -- at the SG and SF spots to go with their overall quickness can cover more ground in the passing lanes.  They can make it tougher for bigs to pass out of a double-team in the post.  Even if their feet don't make it all the way out to a perimeter shooter, their length gives them a better chance of altering shots out there. 

Our beloved '95 team had limited depth, but quality interchangeables in Charles O'Bannon and Toby Bailey -- 6-6 and 6-5, both with strong legs, long arms, and freakish athleticism and endurance.  Watching those guys switch, rotate, and trap was a thing of Showtime-level beauty. 

Throw in Ed O, and we had THREE guys with length and quickness to plug up any holes in our team D.

Will Josh be able to fill the same needs?  Will Roll?  Will Lee?

Do we have the wings?

Time will tell whether our wings match our prayers.

M

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I agree

I think Keefe might fall under the category of a wing. He’s fairly quick, has the long arms, and can bump down below as well as stretch the perimeter.

I tried explaining in other posts why I wished Chase Stanback stayed, but I think you nailed it here. CS is a solid wing. He’s a little on the lighter side, but he is long and quick enough to alter a shot down low. I would’ve really liked to see him in the lineup next season.

All in all, though, I’m happy with JK filling that role. Josh could do a decent job too, but he’s a little slower than I would like.

by UCLAbruin920 on Oct 15, 2008 3:36 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Thanks for the input. One question, though...

… and that’s about JK. Don’t get me wrong, i am quietly hoping JK can be a 14 and 7 guy next year.

I’m serious. With experience and added muscle mass, I think he can be our most balanced two-way power forward in a LOOONG time. Luc was a great 9 and 9 guy, but Keefe has more offesnvie tools, if not the same defensive wingspan.

Now the question: I consider our main preseason weakness to be the alck of proven INTERCHANGEABLE wings. As an example from ’95, COB and TB could switch off as needed, with no mismatches on D.

Luc could switch off and rotate on a SG in short stints and still keep us covered.

Can JK switch off onto JS’ man and cover him effectively on the perimeter?

There’s my concern.

M

"In this program your passion bucket must be full to play SC." -- CRN, to Dan Patrick, 1/2008

by Meriones on Oct 15, 2008 4:08 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Mid season form

It may as you say be incredibly early, but your input and passion are in mid season form! Kudos to your insightful input. But remember, almost every team has their weakness and especially in this age of one and done, the chances of any team becoming that perfect team like back in the Wooden days, are even more remote I feel.

Of course, the key is to utilize your team collective talents to maximize your strengths while hiding your weakness all at the same time exposing the other team weakness. I can think of no one better to figure that out than CBH. Although some of your examples were recent history, i.e. Brewer. But that team to me didn’t have the depth Florida did and almost had to hope for the perfect game from everyone from the outset. I believe for the first time not only does CBH have the team, but he has the incredible depth to wish their will on any opponent. I will again take my chances of going to the Spring Dance again, and as for your $50, I don’t think it would be an unwise move to lay it down in Vegas.

Great post.

Tru

by tru-bleu on Oct 15, 2008 3:40 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Thanks for the reply. I agree...

… that a key strategy will be to force other teams to match up to us, rather than allow them to exploit on perimeter switches, etc.

A more free-flowing, transition oriented attack — based on strong rebounding and ballhawking defense in halfcourt — may tempt others to try to run with our speed fleet in the backcourt rather than rely on precise motion or new-wave dribble-drive motion sets.

Let the chess games begin…

M

"In this program your passion bucket must be full to play SC." -- CRN, to Dan Patrick, 1/2008

by Meriones on Oct 15, 2008 4:11 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I predict some early struggles

We’ve been rather blessed to have a good deal of continuity as far as personnel for the past few years. Where one guy leaves, only one other player deeper on the roster was needed to step up. From Farmar to Collison, Afflalo to Westbrook. This season will be a little different. We have a good idea what we will get from DC and Shipp, but outside of that we are looking at freshmen stepping into those important roles or experienced guys that haven’t yet been consistent starters. I expect there may be some problems early in getting these guys on the same page, especially the freshmen when it comes to CBH’s team defense concept.

I also have confidence that we will gel down the stretch, when it counts. CBH recruits winners. He recruits smart players. If we had Duh-von Jefferson on our team, I might be concerned about him picking up the concepts needed to play for CBH, but we have guys with the talent, and the basketball IQ to back it up.

by Tydides on Oct 15, 2008 3:42 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Like Howland says

They only have 18 practices for the freshmen so that’s going to have to be enough. There are only 11 scholarship guys and it looks like Drago is starting the season hurt. We are going to need quality minutes from the fab 5 as Collison, Roll, Shipp, Keefe and Aboya can’t play the whole time. But that is interesting that our second team, except for maybe switching up Roll and Holiday, is going to be the fab freshmen 5. Practices can still be competitive and it will be interesting to see how Howland platoons the guys this year.

We need a huge year out of Alfred Aboya and James Keefe to make up for the minutes and rebounds lost from Luc, Love and LMR. Unless Gordon and Morgan surprise Howland early, play his brand of defense quickly and steadily, and emerge with more minutes and maybe some starting time.

Btw, Drago and AA2 are listed at 6-9 on the uclabruins.com website.

by bruin95 on Oct 15, 2008 4:43 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Revised heights are duly noted. Thanks.

M

"In this program your passion bucket must be full to play SC." -- CRN, to Dan Patrick, 1/2008

by Meriones on Oct 15, 2008 5:00 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

cool

 good post

by bruin95 on Oct 15, 2008 5:16 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Our Competition

Great post M. I agree with the notion that no team is perfect. Obviously, you nailed the team’s one major weakness (interior may also be an issue depending on DG ad JM development). My two cents on previewing this season is that the only team that scares me is North Carolina. Texas and Notre Dame will be good tests for us, but I think that we are more talented and better coached than either of them. Louisville and Connecticut are getting a lot of publicity, but neither impressed me that much last year as being particularly consistent so I am going to take a wait and see on them. That leaves North Carolina as the only team out there that has the talent, coaching, and consistency that could pose trouble for us.

Comparing position by position:

Interceptor: DC v. Ty Lawson, advantage UCLA
Lawson is a great point guard and possibly the second best in the nation, but I will take DC over him any day of the week and twice on Monday when the championship game is on the line.

Seeker: JH v. Wayne Ellington, Push
While JH is more talented, since he has yet to show his skills at the college level, I am not yet willing to put him over Ellington who is a great shooter who has a knack for making big shots.

Interchangeable wings: JS, ML, MR, JK v. Ginyard and Green, Push
M accurately nailed this as our weak spot, but at the same time, I don’t see UNC being especially strong here either. Florida and Memphis both abused us here because they had star players who could do damage at this position. Ginyard is more of a sold roll player and Green shows flashes of brilliance, but decided to withdraw his name from the draft last year when it was clear that he would go undrafted. Both of these guys could blowup and be stars this year, but so could JS, Jk, or ML. Either way, it doesn’t seem that UNC is in as a good of a position to take advantage of this weakness as Florida and Memphis were.

Backstop: AA2, JM, DG v. Tyler Hansbrough and Deon Thompson, advantage UNC
I would have to say that if were to meet up against UNC, this would be our biggest problem. Like JH and ML, it is hard to say what to expect from JM and DG. What you can bank on is Hansbrough bringing it everynight. Now, AA2 could match him in energy and intensity, but I would worry about foul trouble.

Intangibles: Bruin D v. UNC depth, Push
 Words cant describe how excited I am too see CBH defense performing at full throttle with a group of quick guards to apply pressure with athletic bigs to protect the basket. It will be a stark contrast from UNC which is notorious for just trying to outscore opponents. Conversely, UNC has more depth than us and most of our depth is untested at the college level.

So adding things up, it looks pretty even in my mind. As the season goes on, we will have a better idea where we stand, but from the way all the MSM analysts have anointed UNC as the best team this season, I like our chances.

by bruinponcho on Oct 15, 2008 5:57 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

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