FanPost

UCLA off/def statistical analysis

Since I got flamed for an off the cuff post about offensive deficiencies and called out for a lack of statistical backup I took the suggestion to go to the kempom site and break it down.   I posted this as a reply, but no one is probably still reading it so I am reposting it below....   

 

 

offense                                           eft fg%          TO %           OFF reb%     FTM/FGA         raw   adj

2008 UCLA[1] (P10)                          52.2 ( 75)       18.6 ( 47)       39.3 ( 10)       27.4 ( 89)         11    7

2007 UCLA[2] (P10)                          53.5 ( 41)       18.4 ( 36)       33.5 (166)       21.9 (274)       41   23

2006 UCLA[2] (P10)                          53.2 ( 36)       22.3 (224)       36.2 ( 50)       26.6 (112)       54   28

2005 UCLA[11] (P10)                        50.9 ( 94)       22.0 (211)       33.1 (123)      27.6 ( 83)      120   79

 

  defense

2008 UCLA[1] (P10)                          46.5 ( 37)       21.7 (131)       27.8 (  9)       25.6 (  9)            8    3

2007 UCLA[2] (P10)                          47.6 ( 76)       23.2 ( 54)       29.9 ( 38)       30.2 ( 47)          10    2

2006 UCLA[2] (P10)                          45.9 ( 37)       22.1 (104)       29.1 ( 49)       31.7 ( 73)          23    3

2005 UCLA[11] (P10)                         49.4 (172)       19.8 (245)       28.8 ( 46)       33.0 ( 96)      133   58

 

 

I may have overstated my disenchantment with the offense making it seem like I am displeased with Howland.  If I had to grade his tenure it would be the best since I have been watching UCLA basketball since 1981 or so... an A-.   If I have 1 critiique of the tenure using your kenpom it would be to point out our offensive ability trails our defensive ability.   the adjusted final rankings each year reflect that.   Clearly I think we would all agree last year was our best offensive team both with our eyes and the final number.  

 

Notice in the breakdown where we really shined was the offensive glass which propelled our final adjusted number.  In the other categories we don't finish higher than 47th in 2008.   We have clearly improved year to year over the last 4 in the adjusted number.   Obviously minus Love/mbah a moute/mata/and westbrook gone it is a ton to replace and will most likely crush our 10th rating in offensive rebounding.   It is illogical to expect to improve this year on offense unless we attempt something different in my opinion. 

 

Here is my point on expecting to shut down superior offensive teams with a great defense...all over our big wins came against teams who were not statistically among the top few teams, but our losses were against superior offensive teams that would be difficult to keep under 70.

 

offense                                             eft fg%              TO %          OFF reb%    FTM/FGA        raw   adj

2008 Kansas[1] (B12)                        56.6 (  5)       19.1 ( 61)       37.8 ( 24)       25.7 (161)           2    2

2008 Memphis[1] (CUSA)                   52.8 ( 53)       16.5 (  8)       38.3 ( 19)       24.8 (193)          9    4

2007 Kansas[1] (B12)                        54.5 ( 20)       20.0 ( 94)       37.8 ( 38)       23.9 (213)         27   17

2007 Florida[1] (SEC)                        59.6 (  1)       20.7 (132)       37.6 ( 42)       30.2 ( 41)           1    1

2006 Gonzaga[3] (WCC)                    52.3 ( 55)       17.5 ( 12)       33.7 (115)       35.5 (  2)           1    1

2006 Memphis[1] (CUSA)                  51.2 ( 91)       21.0 (150)       40.7 (  6)       26.9 ( 98)           37   29

2006 LSU (4] (SEC)                          50.1 (131)       21.9 (196)       38.4 ( 18)       25.9 (130)         114   50

2006 Florida[3] (SEC)                         56.9 (  3)       20.7 (139)       34.5 ( 88)       30.3 ( 22)          2    2

 

The exception was that dramatic, frenetic win over gonzaga in a miracle comeback.

gonzaga's defense however was not nearly up to par with the other squads that beat us or in Kansas case went on to win the title the last 3 years.

 

defens

2006 Gonzaga[3] (WCC)                    49.4 (156)       18.4 (312)       31.2 (121)       32.0 ( 76)      223 178

2006  Florida[3] (SEC)                       45.0 ( 15)       22.4 ( 92)       30.9 (108)       29.4 ( 42)          19    5

2007 Florida[1] (SEC)                        45.2 ( 18)       18.8 (290)       28.1 (  8)       27.7 ( 13)           14   12

2008  Kansas[1] (B12)                       44.3 (  9)       21.9 (114)       28.8 ( 23)       31.0 ( 64)           4    1

2008  Memphis[1] (CUSA)                  43.4 (  6)       21.9 (119)       29.2 ( 36)       31.7 ( 73)            2    4

 

 

Again I believe these statistics reflect that our offense needs to improve to get over that hump.   Clearly we can't be championship contenders every year and perhaps howland can work his magic and we can grit our way to a nice run this season.   Also I believe this system contrary to the mainstream media's opinion is absolutely perfect for getting his players into the NBA.  He forces them to play lockdown straightup defense and the NBA loves that.   No one is more prepared fundamentally on defense to play in the NBA than Howland players.    That being said winning titles may require something else or some serious ungodly offensive talent given our framework at the moment.  

 

 

I apologize for appearing to bandwagon losses.  I read here all the time and appreciate on the insight.   I do care as much about football, but I only post because I have something different to say.  What more could I have said about Dorrell's horrible tenure that was football's Lavin/Farmer/Hazzard tenures rolled into one.   I am not going crazy with the tough season we are having at the moment in football because I believe we will be going in the right direction at the moment and that is well covered territory.   My only issue that seems to ride against prevailing opinion is just this one item about our offense. 

I would be happy to post on wins when I feel it was not up to snuff as well.  I think we escape many games thanks to our defense and timely play over the last few years.   I also think we have played some excellent offensive games along the way just not consistently.  I would be happy to throw a mention on those moments as well if it will keep me from getting dumped on.

 

Sorry for the long post, but I felt the least I could provide was a more substantive analysis.

<em>This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of BruinsNation's (BN) editors. It does reflect the views of this particular fan though, which is as important as the views of BN's editors.</em>

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