Mississippi Valley State - Intro

by bruinhoo on Mar 17, 2008 4:35 AM PDT

Bumped. GO BRUINS. -N

Well, the tournament selection show has aired; and with that, the NCAA's selection committee has handed down its bracket seedings. As easy as it is to look ahead at the possible matchups that the Bruins may face in the upcoming weeks, let us not overlook our first challenge in this three-week final exam of the season that is the NCAA tournament.

For those that missed the unveiling of the brackets, or the ensuing analysis on ESPN, UCLA has drawn as its first-round opponent Mississippi Valley State - best known for having produced perhaps the greatest football player of them all in Jerry Rice. The basics:

MVSU has an overall record of 18-15 (15-15 against D-1 opponents). The team finished second in the Southwestern Conference (SWAC)'s regular season with a 12-6 record, gaining the league's automatic bid by winning the conference tournament. UCLA and MVSU faced one common opponent this season - Washington State. WSU won that meeting by a score of 71-26 (yes, you are reading that score right) in Spokane. In sum, MVSU has faced three teams in the field of 65; losing road games against Pitt (45-78) and Baylor (50-82) in addition to WSU.

Now, for more of a statistical look at this matchup:

RPI: UCLA: #4; MVSU: #224
Pomeroy Rating: UCLA #2; MVSU #318
Sagarin Rating: UCLA #3; MVSU #302

Notes:

There are 341 teams playing Division 1 basketball in the 2007-08 season, 10 of which are not eligible to participate in the tournament.
While many here question the validity of conference rankings, it should be noted that all of the rating systems that I have cited (RPI/Pomeroy/Sagarin) consider the SWAC to be the weakest conference in Division 1 this season.

Under all of these ranking systems, Mississippi Valley State is the weakest team to make this year's tournament, moreso even than the two teams participating in the opening round (play-in game) on Tuesday night. While MVSU is the worst of this year's tournament teams, they are not the lowest-rated UCLA opponent: UCLA played five opponents, over six games, with a lower RPI; and one opponent (UC Davis) with a lower Pomeroy rating and Sagarin rating.

Delving deeper into MVSU, I refer to the statistical work done by Ken Pomeroy, which Nestor used to examine UCLA's defense here, and I have previously used to compare this year's squad to the last two UCLA Final Four teams.

For the season, MVSU's Offensive and Defensive efficiency was as follows (see here for a further explanation of efficiency, and the method of adjustment for strength of schedule that is applied:

Offense: 87.6 points/100 possessions (#325 in D-1).
Defense: 107.8 points/100 possessions (#257 in D-1).
Pace: 64.7 possessions/40 minutes.

While MVSU's pace of play is similar to UCLA's, little else related to their play does. UCLA's efficiency and pace:

Offense: 120.7 points/100 possessions (#5)
Defense: 84.5 points/100 possessions (#4)
Pace: 65.6 possessions/40 minutes.

Using the above efficiency measures, together with the average pace of the two teams' play, the average game score of each team, based upon an equal schedule composed of average Division 1 teams would be:

UCLA: 79-55
MVSU: 57-70

While I don't quite have the handle of the methodology to predict a score, or a margin for Thursday's game, I would not predict an extremely high scoring game of the sort that UNC or Kansas typically has in the opening round. after looking at last year's opening round opponent, Weber State, and the result of that game (70-42 UCLA), I might expect a somewhat higher scoring effort against the Delta Devils, though the absence of Luc and uncertain health of Kevin Love does complicate such projections somewhat.

This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of BruinsNation's (BN) editors. It does reflect the views of this particular fan though, which is as important as the views of BN's editors.

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Comments

Well done...

These are some pretty interesting stats.

by bruinbunz on Mar 16, 2008 10:42 PM PDT reply actions

In other words

Our bench could easily beat this team.

by bluegold on Mar 16, 2008 10:49 PM PDT reply actions

Whoa! Don't get overconfident

What if Jerry Rice gives his alma mater a stirring pep talk? Our Bruins can't overlook anybody and need to come out smokin'. They have started slow in every game.

by bruin75 on Mar 16, 2008 11:06 PM PDT reply actions

Jerry may be otherwise occupied

if this sheds any light on his current alliances. I believe his daughter attends Georgetown, which explains his presence in the clip.

by bruinhoo on Mar 16, 2008 11:16 PM PDT up reply actions

Jerry's too busy...

by sfatoo on Mar 16, 2008 11:20 PM PDT up reply actions

Ole!

Vaya con dios.

by boston bruin on Mar 17, 2008 5:58 AM PDT up reply actions

Hehe.

Those are some nice legs on the dancers (the women that is.)

by Rich1996UCLA on Mar 17, 2008 9:52 AM PDT up reply actions

Nothing wrong with a man who can dance

I love Dancing with the Stars, and I'm one of the few people who can get away with saying that since I'm a woman. Jerry Rice was good, but not good enough to finish in second.

by bruinbabe2000 on Mar 17, 2008 10:18 AM PDT up reply actions

I'll Confess

I'm a dude, but I like it too. Now, if I'm watching DWTS over a UCLA Tourney game, then there may be some questions I may be forced to answer.

by Rich1996UCLA on Mar 17, 2008 10:23 AM PDT up reply actions

I guess guys can get away with it

By saying they enjoy watching attractive women dance around in skimpy outfits. Regardless, Mr. BB thinks it's dumb, but said if more people passed out like Marie Osmond did, he might watch.

I would question my priorities too if I chose Dancing with the Stars over UCLA. That's why Tivo was invented.

by bruinbabe2000 on Mar 17, 2008 11:42 AM PDT up reply actions

Question

Thanks for your analysis!

We can see that MVS started out very soft and finished better.

Since I have a finals this week I can't do this myself--and not to look a gift horse in the mouth--but how are the stats adjusted for 2nd half of the season only?

by dokein on Mar 16, 2008 11:43 PM PDT reply actions

Great stuff hoo

We would love it if you use this post as a template and keep them coming as we win our games (one at a time).

by Nestor on Mar 17, 2008 4:36 AM PDT reply actions

Certainly

And no problem regarding one at a time; I may be a 3L, but there are still only so many hours in a day.

by bruinhoo on Mar 17, 2008 7:44 AM PDT up reply actions

Excellent Work Hoo

I really love your stuff.

First, I totally agree with Nestor -- it is bad mojo, from this point on, to look at more than one game down the road. And, I really appreciate your focus on the first game.

My concern is not backed by science -- it is totally superstition. And, experience. Detroit Mercy, Princeton? Ugh.

Anyway, like many of you, I've been concerned by our slow starts -- or what I perceive to be slow starts. (If someone can show me where to look, I'd like to compile a chart that sets forth our first half scoring percentage and our second half. My thesis is that we shoot poorly in most first halfs, at least lately, and do better in the second to win the games.)

It would really help us to come our early, in this game, and build a lead so that we can get more people tournament playing experience. I know this is axiomatic, and I suppose it's true for every game, but, please, let's do it Thursday.

I'm blown away by the Vegas odds on our Thursday game. This morning's paper lists us as 32.5 point favorites. That's nonsense. BH doesn't play the game that way. Our bench will be cleared well before getting to that margin. (I know, some might say our bench can run up that kind of margin, but I think that underrates MVS.)

Thanks, Hoo.

And, let's hope for a very strong first half, and a healthy, flexible KL.

sjh

by Class of 66 on Mar 17, 2008 4:55 AM PDT reply actions