Prelude To The Madness: Some Thoughts

by Nestor on Mar 19, 2008 5:39 PM PDT in Basketball

With less than 24 hours to go understandably everyone is fired up. Emotions are running high as everyone thinks their team has a shot.

Obviously each and every member of the larger Bruin Nation is a little excited about the chances of our Ben Ball warriors heading into tomorrow night's game against what should be tough and feisty Mississippi Valley Delta State.

But before Thursday arrived I wanted to get some thoughts out of my way. I have been very amused over this week to read comments like this:

But UCLA looks like the team best equipped to complete the journey and win its first national championship since 1995, in part due to the path of least resistance that the committee has provided the Bruins.

That was from Dick Weiss of the New York Daily News, who I have always had a lot of respect for his knowledge on the game. Joe Lunardi on WWL is saying that the "weakest collection of 2s, 3s, and 4s sits in the West":

Really Joe? (I like Joe’s analysis a lot). But this whole narrative that UCLA somehow has a "cakewalk" ahead of him (being perpertred both in the MSM and in the blogpshere) doesn't really hold up when you actually look into the numbers.

Last night I went into Kenpom.com again and ran the numbers re. 2008 Pomeroy College Basketball Ratings for all 64 teams who are going to put their dancing shoes on starting tomorrow afternoon:

Seed	West	South	East	Midwest
1	UCLA (2)	Memphis (3)	UNC (5)	Kansas (1)
2	Duke (6)	Texas (7)	Tennessee (14)	Georgetown (8)
3	Xavier (18)	Stanford (10)	Louisville (9)	Wisconsin (4)
4	Connecticut (21)	Pittsburgh (26)	Wash St. (11)	Vanderbilt (48)
5	Drake (24)	Michigan St (17)	Notre Dame (27)	Clemson (13)
6	Purdue (25)	Marquette (12)	Oklahoma (36)	Southern Cal (20)
7	West Va (23)	Miami (47)	Butler (32)	Gonzaga (28)
8	BYU (44)	Miss. St. (34)	Indiana (19)	UNLV (53)
9	Texas A&M (16)	Oregon (37)	Arkansas (40)	Kent St (66)
10	Arizona (22)	St. Marys (46)	South Alabama (75)	Davidson (33)
11	Baylor (39)	Kentucky (61)	St. Joesph’s (55)	Kansas St (15)
12	Western Kentucky (64)	Temple (65)	George Mason (93)	Villanova (51)
13	San Diego (117)	Oral Roberts (79)	Winthrop (109)	Siena (113)
14	Georgia (81)	Cornell (132)	Boise St (131)	Cal State Fullerton (110)
15	Belmont (160)	Austin Peay (170)	American (159)	UMBC (145)
16	Miss. Valley St (318)	Texas- Arlington (186)	Mt. St. Mary (169)	Portland St. (126)
Avg Rating	62.3	58.3	61.5	52.1

Again, the numbers parenthesis denote the teams' Kenpom ratings. Here are some of the points that stuck out from those numbers:

By the numbers the team's in the Western bracket have the lowest average rating (62.3) per Kenpom.com, however it's by the tiniest of margin, only 0.8 lower than the bracket in the Eastern region (61.5).
But look at the numbers closely though. If you look at the 4 seeds, UCLA has the second toughest 4 seed - Connecticut (21) - in its region. UNC has the toughest 4 seed in its region in Washington State, a team UCLA thoroughly dominated at home and beat without LRMAM on the road.
Kansas may be in the toughest bracket when you factor in average rating of all 16 teams (52.1), however, they have the lowest rated 4th [Vandy (48)] and 8th seed [UNLV (53)] in the tournament
Joe Lunardi noted above that "weakest collection of 2s, 3s, and 4s sits in the West." If you average the ratings of 2s, 3s, and 4s you get: 15.0 for West, 14.3 for South, 11.3 for East, and 20.0 for Midwest. So actually the "weakest collection of 2s, 3s, and 4s" sits in the Midwest according to the ratings of Kenpom.com.
UCLA has the highest ranked 9th seed [Texas A&M (16)] in its region.

So taking a look at those numbers you just have to LOL when you hear arguments about how UCLA has a "cakewalk" ahead of them in the coming days (if we are lucky enough to advance round by round).

So I think it will be prudent for all of us not to take any game or any opponent for granted in the coming days (including tomorrow night) and feel entitled to our third straight Final-4.

Just think back to the time out right before this happened:

The feeling I was going through during the TO right before that moment is still burned into my memory. It was a devastating and empty feeling I just cannot describe. I can still remember back to that afternoon when we were sitting around our living room at our Landfair apartment with empty stairs. Up until then UCLA had probably put together its most complete regular season (finishing the reg season as the over all number 1 team in the country) and had the most complete squad since the days of JRW.

Well heading into tomorrow, I think we can say this is probably the most complete season our program has put together since 1994-95. Deep down we are all feeling that we have a chance as good as anyone in the country. But it would be in all of our best interest, to just think back to the feelings we were collectively going through during the TO right before Edney's drive. It will give us a dose of humility that I believe we all need going into tomorrow night.

I will reiterate again what I echoed last Sunday. No matter what happens from hereon out we should be proud of what Coach Howland has given us in Westwood. Let's forget about all the nonsense of a "cakewalk" or look ahead beyond our next opponent, and jump into this madness with pride in the program that will be representing those magical four letters, while maintaining a healthy dose of perspective and humility.

GO BRUINS.

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Comments

What about Texas?

These guys were just given the chance to possibly play all SIX Tournament games within, I don't know, SIX HUNDRED MILES of their campus?

And the only challenges they have are going to be from Stanford (which has only slightly above-average guards to match up with Augustin and Co.) and everybody's over-rated favorites, Memphis?

Here's hoping Stanford softens up the Longhorns for Pitt.

"In this program your passion bucket must be full to play SC." -- CRN, to Dan Patrick, 1/2008

by Meriones on Mar 19, 2008 5:50 PM PDT reply actions

West Bracket is hugely skewed

by the 16th seed (a statistical outlier if there ever was one). Factoring in only seeds 1-15, the avg ratings become:

West: 44.1
MidWest: 47.2
South: 49.1
East: 54.3

by snorkeldorf on Mar 19, 2008 6:03 PM PDT reply actions

The First Thought I Had

Leaving out the 16 seeds, doesn't make the West any less challenging than the others. You get to a point where it doesn't matter anymore how weak (according to the numbers) a team is. If you're a top rated team, you'll likely beat a 300 team just the same a team rated 500th.

by Rich1996UCLA on Mar 19, 2008 9:59 PM PDT up reply actions

4.8

>> I can still remember back to that afternoon when we were sitting around our living room at our Landfair apartment with empty stairs. <<

I forget the name of the head janitor at Sproul Hall, but he were on "hi" terms as I worked at the front desk. He idled over to the big screen in the main floor lounge to watch the end of this game with the students, and after the shot for some unexplained giddy reason I jumped into his arms and he held me like a bride enter the house.

Vaya con dios.

by boston bruin on Mar 19, 2008 6:25 PM PDT reply actions

That's Funny

by Rich1996UCLA on Mar 19, 2008 10:02 PM PDT up reply actions

4.8 -NO

I went to Missouri. Take that video off of here.

Please.

by mizzou on Mar 20, 2008 5:31 AM PDT up reply actions

No

by Tydides on Mar 20, 2008 8:30 AM PDT up reply actions

Oh, Good Grief.

This is a Bruins fans' site.

Love My Bruins

by Bruingirl83 on Mar 20, 2008 2:31 PM PDT up reply actions

Luc will start tomorrow!

Per Dohn's blog. He practiced today and Coach Howland said he will start tomorrow.

by Raisin on Mar 19, 2008 6:29 PM PDT reply actions

Roll?

Saw a KCAL9 clip of Roll doing the stutter step practicing w/ the rest of team. Whaah? Not gonna happen I know, but what would be the rules concerning playing Roll anyway?

by Rich1996UCLA on Mar 19, 2008 10:05 PM PDT up reply actions

would burn his (assumed) redshirt

Nothing that would stop him from playing in the tourney, but as soon as he enters a game, he loses the chance to claim an injury redshirt for this season (which one assumes he would be granted otherwise).

by bruinhoo on Mar 19, 2008 10:30 PM PDT up reply actions

Time?

Anyone know the appoximate tip time for tomorrow? How about our second round game on Saturday (I realize I'm assuming we'll win...bad form?)

by RedDoor on Mar 19, 2008 6:59 PM PDT reply actions

Tip tomorrow

is approximately 6:55 PST. It will start 25 minutes after the completion of the previous game.

Saturday's tip, if we win, will be at either 3:45 PST or 6:15 PST.

by Ryan Rosenblatt on Mar 19, 2008 7:01 PM PDT up reply actions

If anyone has any good

statistical data on academics, post grad schools, etc. from magazines or any media source for UCLA that'd be a great help. I'm trying to convince a friend of mine to go to UCLA over SUC..just wondering if anyone had a good data to try and sell her on it.

lol i tried the first to 100 pitch and the location pitch, but don't have any good numerical ranking type stuff off hand

O.A.

by Ollie on Mar 19, 2008 8:57 PM PDT reply actions

It depends on the field

So in this case I have to set aside my biases. Because, in truth, USC has a number of outstanding departments and schools, academically speaking (this coming from someone who got their BA from Cal and Ph.D. from UCLA). In some areas, 'SC has stronger departments. They have been spending a lot of money on hiring faculty lately, and their average SAT's (a pretty worthless number, but all we have), at the undergraduate level are higher than UCLA's (2101-2006). Now this is not to say that UCLA isn't a freakin' outstanding school academically, because it is. But in terms of education, honesty is really the best policy.
http://www.admissions.ucla.edu/Prospect/Adm_fr/Frosh_Prof06.htm
http://college.usc.edu/about/quick_facts.html

If you want basic numbers, US News and World Report is still the way to go. But those numbers are notoriously messy. The bottom line point is that, academically, the days when UCLA was head and shoulders better than UCLA are (at least for now) a thing of the past. And given the debacle that is education spending in California, that parity isn't going to be shifting anytime soon.

But again, it comes down to what she is going to school for. There are many, many departments where UCLA is the best place to be in the nation.

by BruinSinceBirth on Mar 19, 2008 9:45 PM PDT up reply actions

Typo

"the days when UCLA was head and shoulders better than USC" -- I guess it is still hard for me to type that. Sigh.

by BruinSinceBirth on Mar 19, 2008 9:53 PM PDT up reply actions

Thanks a bunch

Since the academics really have become closer than they've ever been, I guess its become tougher to give that age old argument. It's hard trying to explain to someone what being a bruin (or at least being part of the bruin family in my case) is all about, when they really have no traditional allegiance to either school.

The one thing I'd say though besides the location, athletics, academics and spirit, is the quality of people. Obviously growing up on the westside you meet loads of SC and UCLA alum, but the thing thats hard to argue is the quality of people that come out of UCLA.

BN is a microcosm of the UCLA student body and alum, and although I've never met a single person here face to face...there are so many that I've come to respect through the quality of research, knowledge, and character displayed through simple online posts. I may have never met a trojan, and i know many current and graduated, that have displayed a fraction of the genuine knowledge and passion of all the moderators on this sight.

O.A.

by Ollie on Mar 19, 2008 10:18 PM PDT up reply actions

Simple

Have your buddy walk around south central, then have him walk around Westwood. No brainer!

by RedDoor on Mar 19, 2008 11:03 PM PDT up reply actions

Reach of the degree

If your friend considers leaving LA at some point after graduation, he/she may want to consider how the degree is viewed by employers/people outside of the region. From my experience, I have family in the South (varied backgrounds - education up through oil executives) that have great respect for UCLA. I have also talked with lawyers in DC, one of whom has directly said that 'only 3 schools on the west coast really matter - Cal, Stanford and UCLA' (as basically no one from Caltech ever applies for these sorts of things).

by bruinhoo on Mar 19, 2008 11:05 PM PDT up reply actions

This is ABSOLUTELY True

There is no question that USC's academics are not given the level of respect that is automatically granted to those three UC schools outside of the State of California.

If you go far enough East, "USC" means the University of South Carolina, and the Trojans are the "other USC." The only thing they sometimes know, or care, about it is that it has a great football program.

Love My Bruins

by Bruingirl83 on Mar 20, 2008 2:28 PM PDT up reply actions

A distinction

It is true out here in East Coast no one cares about an undergraduate degree from Southern Cal. However, the graduate programs from Southern Cal (especially their law school) are held in pretty high regard.

by Nestor on Mar 20, 2008 4:02 PM PDT up reply actions

I hear what you're saying

but to me, it just doesn't pass the smell test. From my high school, there were plenty of people in my graduating class (5 years ago) that went to both UCLA and SUC. I swear the following is true, and if that's not good enough for some people given my obvious bias then so be it.

All I know is that there was a fairly clear distinction in the brains department between those that decided to go to UCLA and those that had to go to SUC (to put it nicely). My choice of words in the previous sentence brings me to my next point: The people in my class that went to UCLA got into SUC and chose not to go there. Every single one. Those that went to SUC over UCLA? Well, only one person I know even had that choice to make because the rest didn't even get in. He decided to go to SUC because he wanted to go to med school, where GPA is of the utmost importance, and let's face it: SUC is where you go to be a big fish in a small pond. I don't begrudge him that decision.

Anyway, that's my story and I swear by it, and your numbers simply don't jive with what I know in my mind are some very questionable people that have "graduated" from SUC. Sure it's a small sample size (maybe about 40-50 people) but it reinforced everything I had heard about the difference academically.

I will say that SUC "hooks you up" better out of college if that's what you're looking for. There is something to be said for the "trOJan family" (that something is nepotism), but as we all know it's one thing to get a job. It's another thing to have what it takes to stay there. The second part is what UCLA is good for.

by Tydides on Mar 19, 2008 10:21 PM PDT up reply actions

Architecture...

Hate to admit it, but their Architecture Dept. is a good one. That said, nothing wrong w/ keeping 'em on the defensive.

by Rich1996UCLA on Mar 19, 2008 10:58 PM PDT up reply actions

I'm not saying she would be happier

After all, I chose a public school (I wasn't going to to UCLA where my father teaches). And there is of course something special about being part of the Bruin community. But I will come back to my main point that it depends on what level of education she is seeking. Is she going for undergrad? That is one experience. Is she going for grad school? Then you go to the best department or where the person you want to work with is. And I would add -- does money matter? Is 'SC giving her a ride? The cost to go to a UC has gotten rather large (23 grand including housing). They call them fees. They were fees when they were a few hundred bucks in the 80s. Starting next year, if you are in what used to be the working or middle class it will be cheaper (ie free) to go to Stanford (or Harvard for that matter) than to go to a UC. That is so wrong. But it is the current reality. Will you get a world class education at UCLA? You bet your a**. Will you have an amazing experience? Ditto. Is it a better community than USC? I think so. But there are other factors. So all I am saying at the end of the day is that you have to take the variables into account.

That said, Go Bruins!

by BruinSinceBirth on Mar 19, 2008 11:04 PM PDT up reply actions

Sorry - the point isn't debatable

The issue is whether you would counsel someone you know to voluntarily become a trOJan? The answer for me is that there are absolutely no circumstances - NONE - in which I could suggest to anyone that he or she should have anything to do with justac. I know some people who have done so, and have come out of it OK. But I have know oh so many more who are typical trOJans.

This one is truly a no-brainer.

by Fox 71 on Mar 19, 2008 11:15 PM PDT up reply actions

Do you mean

someone deciding whether to come for UG, and looking at how graduates place in post-grad or professional programs?

If it helps at all (and its what you are looking for), at Virginia Law (consistently a top-10 law school), Bruin alums tend to outnumber Trojans by a solid margin (current Bruin-to-Trojan ratio ~3:1). I have heard from others that the ratio @ Harvard favors Bruins as well, if not as overwhelmingly as here in Charlottesville (the Trojans tend to do well @ Columbia for some reason).

by bruinhoo on Mar 19, 2008 10:54 PM PDT up reply actions

I'm guessing...

purely here, but might be b/c there is a difference between the intensiveness of the UG majors.

by Rich1996UCLA on Mar 19, 2008 11:00 PM PDT up reply actions

Wow

thanks for all the feedback...I really have tried to convince her on the basis of what i know from my mom, an alumna, and from my experience as a fan my whole life. It's cool hearing some feed back from actual student and alumni.

I go to SMU, often(and unfortunately) deemed the SUC of the South, but since I'll always feel a little regret for not working hard enough to make it to UCLA, I feel like the least I can do is guide someone to westwood and keep them out of south central. Also I'll get to live vicariously through her during basketball and football seasons lol..

O.A.

by Ollie on Mar 19, 2008 11:32 PM PDT up reply actions

You guys...

...stole my other favorite colleges' football coach :( :( :(

It was largely UH's fault for losing Jones though. That's what happens when the administration won't do what's necessary to stay competitive. I hope DG is listening wrt our Baseball program.

by Tydides on Mar 20, 2008 12:09 AM PDT up reply actions

and then the bruins nip

craft from SMU...a weird little circle going on haha..its ok though if a player is leaving SMU then I'd only hope he becomes a bruin..and visa versa of course. I'll always be a bruin fan first though, especially when your other team is the remains of a death penalty Armageddon, but hey I really think we're making steps in the right direction.

My ultimate plan is to see UCLA beat SC in consecutive years, win the pac ten and or rose bowl, and compete for a national championship. And in the meantime For SMU to flourish under June, win CUSA, and maybe join the BigXII/XIII lol? So the Ponies can compete again one day too..

O.A.

by Ollie on Mar 20, 2008 12:17 AM PDT up reply actions

Tyus Edney

takes that coast to coast like he was walking on water...amazing, chills.

by bruin95 on Mar 19, 2008 9:24 PM PDT reply actions

Nestor

did you live near the Landmark around that time? Where those b-ball players lived.

by bruin95 on Mar 19, 2008 9:27 PM PDT reply actions

Lived

top of the hill around the corner of Landfair/Gayley ... right across Sigma Chi.

by Nestor on Mar 20, 2008 4:03 PM PDT up reply actions

Ah yes, I remember it well...

We were living in a Manhattan apt. watching their version of CBS. Of course you got the local interest game, and in the days before Directv, internet, etc. you were reliant on the network for info. So all we got were snippets throughout the game. UCLA had to mount a comeback and I was going crazy as they would just give periodic updates. By the time they cut back to the game, the Bruins were already celebrating on the floor as of course they missed that last 4.8 live. You knew then they were a team of destiny.

by UCLAMD89 on Mar 19, 2008 9:37 PM PDT reply actions

Place to watch the game

Where is there a decent Bruin bar in the valley or downtown where I can watch the game with other blue and golds?

by edlamas2000 on Mar 19, 2008 9:41 PM PDT reply actions

See you at the game!

The journey begins tomorrow~ See you in Anaheim and let's finish it all in San Antonio!

by burculian on Mar 19, 2008 10:02 PM PDT reply actions

Can't Believe....

we're on the eve of the madness finally. Feel like an early-80's 10 year old waiting to get his Atari on X-Mas Eve.

by Rich1996UCLA on Mar 19, 2008 10:08 PM PDT reply actions

Pomeroy...

He also wrote a few articles about the overall odds of winning. He has Kansas as the favorite with a 36.8% chance of winning the championship. UCLA is second favorite with a 13.2% chance. It's worth noting that Kansas's region includes very weak 4, 5, 8, and 9 seeds, so they have a relatively easy route to the Elite Eight.

East and Midwest
South and West

by SuperBruinMan on Mar 19, 2008 10:34 PM PDT reply actions

1995... damn I feel old

Geeze, that video looks so old school. No graphics, shorts that aren't down to their knees, poor video. I was a sophomore back when we won it last. Makes this Bruin feel old.

by mark the bruin on Mar 19, 2008 10:45 PM PDT reply actions

Ben Ball

This team is far from dominating ni terms of overtall athleticism, quickness no defense and outside shooting (save Collison.) They do what they do through smart team play and will to win. They are vulnerable when the offense doesn't click. which is half the time. I will be proud of this team whether they make it to the final four or not, and love our coach for bringing back Bruin greatness. That said, we have as good a chance as any of the top seeds, and I can't wait to watch them will their way through the tournament.

by 75NatChamps on Mar 20, 2008 5:32 AM PDT reply actions