More on UCLA's Preseason Expectations/Conventional Wisdom

I think there are reasons to be optimistic for the future. Recruiting has improved and will continue to improve, and most importantly, there is a sense of confidence and hope which is an extremely and underappreciated step toward success.

Next year, however, at least in my opinion, will be dismal to the objective observer. I say objective observer because some regular BNers (including myself) will see positive steps during the season which will excite us even more for the future, and some will consider a .500 season (or close thereto) a significant achievment. But for outsiders to the program, it will simply be mediocrity (again) this year, or worse, crap.

We can talk about what our “strenghths” are on offense till the cows come home, but (in my opinion) our strengths on offense are only relative to our offense. On an objective national scale, I think our offense is a dismal, underachieving, and injured unit. QB’s have potential, but no one has stepped up. My feeling is that our quarterback for the last 5 years has been the guy who has screwed up least, as opposed to the guy who has stepped up. BO is the number one offender. And when it comes to play on the field, they are underwhelming to say the least. I like Cowan’s heart, and perhaps some of the young kids will step up-but as of now, QB is mediocre. Tail Backs they are ok-that’s it. Bell had some decent games when he wasn’t injured, but I was never overwhelmed with his talent. Again, maybe some young kids will step up-but who knows. Offensive Line- whatever. Receivers—they are ok, but that’s it. Again, we could say they are a strength on offense, but that is relative. I just don’t think they are that good, and or, they haven’t met their potential.

I think we seriously lack talent on offense. Some will say and have said that KD simply wasted the talent-and that is possible. So in one respect there can be hope for our offense next year-perhaps KD did waste talent, and if there was talent there, perhaps CRN can tap into it. I personally think there isn’t much talent (also thanks to KD), but here’s to hoping I’m wrong on that.

I don’t think we are going to go .500, but I’d be happy with .500. We just aren’t that good. And we weren’t that good last year. The expectation / predictions for last year were so nuanced as to be misunderstood by outsiders. Some expected 10 wins from the 5th year coach, but predicted less. Well, all that was confusing to those who don’t follow along closely (for all I know, I didn’t even restate it right). Anyway, I think its fair to say that I expect us to be bad, and I predict us to be mediocre this year. Either way, a tough year for a school which expects more out of its athletes.

Two years from now, we will know a lot about where we are.

Perhaps the most reliable indication of a team’s quality comes from those who put their money, not their rhetoric, on the line. The wrap has an article, this morning, discussing the odds makers’ predictions on whether a team will finish number one. Two betting sites have us a 75-1 and 66-1; a third has us at 35-1.

However, I don’t think this is the right “predictor”. I’ve looked all over on-line to try to find the spread on our games, but it appears none is up.

I’m really curious. Are there places where you can bet games this far in advance? If so, I’m wondering how they see us doing on our entire schedule. I’d be surprised if, today, anyone would see us winning more games than we lose.

Bettors out there? Point me in the right direction and I’ll follow up.

Except that they give coaching a “B”. I don’t think a staff with Chow, Walker and Palcic should be given a “B”. I know we have yet to see how CRN will do, but his record is a B+ at least, don’t you think? Anyway, just nitpicking.

As for me, I keep going through the schedule, and I don’t see us winning more than 5 games. With CTS around, I wouldn’t have seen us winning more than 3.

The difference between “expectations” and “predictions” is where I think BN, SMQ, and GG failed to see eye-to-eye in the recent spat/blog war.

Yes, we would have expected KD to have at least a 8 or 9 win season this year. Why? It’s would have been his sixth season, with his system and his recruits. By CRN’s sixth season, I expect him to put out a team that wins at the minimum, 8 games.

As for this season, if KD stayed in charge, while I would expect at least 8 wins, I would predict maybe 4 at the most (taking into account how incredibly stupid the Doofus was on the sidelines). There’s a big difference between one’s expectations of a program and what one predicts will actually happen.

So, it’s perfectly rational, to expect and predict CRN will only pull out 6 wins this season, given it’s his first year in the program, the first year of his system, with recruits that aren’t his guys. I’m not saying the guy is a first year coach or should be seen as such, but even great coaches take some time to implement their system and bring in their guys. Did Urban Meyer win it all in his first season at Florida? Did Jim Tressel win it all his first year at Ohio State? No matter how good a coach is, it takes some time to deal with the transition.

So I do not understand how people got so worked up over “taking us to task” for “lowering the bar” to give CRN a “honeymoon.”

What I don’t get, and which hasn’t really been addressed (or perhaps I’ve missed it), is that presumably KD believed he’d be coaching here for a long time, that he wanted to be here for a long time, and succeed at his alma mater. So, I don’t understand what the hell he was doing re: recruiting. I mean, the guy assumed he’d be back this season, so looking at the gaping holes in our roster (QB, O-Line, Secondary), one would assume he would have planned for future seasons (meaning this one) a few seasons ago and recruited accordingly.

But, seeing how much of a Doofus KD was on the sideline, I figure his ability to plan ahead and run a program was about as effective as his West Coast “offense.”

From the official site

Fans attending the Sept. 1 football opener versus Tennessee will be treated to a fireworks show following the contest.