Considering how effective RW was against him. I know Bayless is a great prospect, but looking at the numbers, here’s what I saw:

Bayless averaged 19.7 points, 2.7 rebounds, 4.0 assists, 3.0 turnovers, and 1.0 steals per game.

RW, in comparison, averaged 12.7 points, 3.9 rebounds, 4.3 assists, 2.5 turnovers, and 1.6 steals per game.

Now, sure, Bayless scored 7 points more per game (albeit on a team with only him and Budinger as real offensive options, while RW shared scoring duties with DC, JS, and KL). Yes, RW averaged 1.2 more rebounds a game, .3 more assists per game, with fewer turnovers per game and more steals per game. So, RW is statistically stronger than Bayless in every category than scoring. What is particularly interesting is that RW did better in every category than Bayless (including assists and turnovers, traditionally a PG statistic) while playing SG rather than PG and sharing a backcourt with DC. Bayless started at PG and shared a backcourt with Jawann McClellan (who couldn’t hold DC’s jock in his wildest dreams), which one would think would lead Bayless to have to run the offense more often, and he’d have a higher number of assists as a result. But, alas, RW outperformed him in every category but points per game.

But, what I find most telling, is how RW and Bayless matched up head-to-head with RW guarding Bayless (if I recall correctly, RW drew Bayless on defense for most of the game). When we played the Mildcats at Pauley (in a 82-60 thumping that could have been much worse had CBH not played the bench as early as he did) (even McGrath and Schmidt, our super deep subs, as in way below Abdul-Hamid on the depth chart deep, got in the game), Bayless had a line of 13 points, 1 rebound, 4 assists, 2 turnovers, and 1 steal.

Which is 6.7 points less than his season average and half of his rebounding average.

RW, in the same game had a line of 21 points, 1 rebound, 3 assists, 1 turnover, and 1 steal. In other words, RW scored 8.3 points more than his season average.

Now, when UCLA took on the Mildcats in Tucson a month later, Bayless had a line of 15 points, 2 rebounds, 4 assists, 3 turnovers, and 1 steal. In other words, Bayless was on his season average, except that he scored 4.7 points fewer than his season average.

RW, in that game (in which I believe he also spent his time defending Bayless), scored 10 points, grabbed 6 rebounds, and had one assist and one steal. So, while RW was not on form in terms of scoring and the other categories, he grabbed an impressive 6 boards (2.1 more than his season average).

All-in-all, what I take from this is that when Bayless and RW met on the court, Bayless performed well under his season numbers, which I think is attributable to RW’s well-known tenacious defense. RW ran rampant in the first game against the Mildcats, and while he didn’t meet his scoring average in the rematch, he owned the glass. So, yes, I definitely agree with how RW took on Rose and Mayo, with both “elite” prospects shying away from RW’s tenacious defense (I haven’t looked at the numbers, but I definitely remember that being the case; I’m sure the statistics support it if someone wants to check on that).

But what gets me is that a lot of people are assuming Bayless is a lock to be drafted ahead of Westbrook with the fourth pick by Seattle. Based on these numbers, I can’t figure out why (esp. considering how weak Bayless’ defense was) people are so high on him, yet RW isn’t getting the same kind of love.

lacked any insight whatsoever. You didn’t think he’d be a starter because the game was faster. Thanks for that. Plenty of people have come to BN and shared their thoughts on Love’s pro prospects and a lot of the have doubted whether he’d be effective. Your opinion was fine, but you provided no support for your opinion or additional insight. The fact that you just signed up on BN to give us that one sentence observation and them pimped your website won;t endear you to many here.

Like you (and probably every other Bruin), I would have loved to have another high-flying, nasty-dunking, tenacious-defending year of RW.

But, given his draft stock and how well he has performed against guys assumed to be NBA ready (Rose, Mayo, and Bayless), I think he’s proven he’s ready for the NBA. Of course he’d learn and grow by staying with CBH for another year, any young player would (even Rose…and imagine what a beast Beasley would be on defense under CBH). But, if you think Rose, Mayo, and Bayless are for-sure ready for the NBA, then you have to accept that so is RW. The numbers don’t lie. Hell, your eyes shouldn’t lie either. RW absolutely owned OJ2 not once, but twice.

And I have to absoutely disagree with your assertion that UCLA would be worse off had both RW and DC returned. I don’t know if you haven’t been paying attention lately, but the biggest reason we came up short this last year was our lack of depth in the backcourt due to injuries. You can never have too many good players. I can tell you’re a big fan of Jrue, and I’m sure I will be too. But having both DC and RW wouldn’t have hurted Jrue. Jrue will still get his minutes. CBH would have found a way to get all of these talented guys in and find a winning formula.

The guys who would have seen their minutes dip would have JA and ML, but they’re not here for next year; they’re our backcourt of the future. And even when DC leaves (and presumably Jrue follows), we’ll still have ML and JA.

I have absolutely no doubt as to CBH’s ability to take these already-elite recruits and turn them into a phenomenal backcourt tandem. Except for JF, none of our recent star guards were heralded world-beaters coming out of high-school. AA was considered a good, not great, prospect, RW was a total afterthought to a lot of programs, and DC was flat out denied by Viagra Lute. And look at how they have all turned out. CBH knows how to train guys in the backcourt and, as such, I have no doubt JA and ML are going to be future Bruin stars, just like I had no doubt RW and DC would be when they first came in the program.

Finally, for as good as Jrue is, remember, he’s still a freshman and freshmen, even great ones, make mistakes (Rose, Mayo, and Bayless all had their share of them this year).

Trust in CBH. The Bruins will be in fine form this season, next season, and every season that CBH is at the helm.

But I suspect that if CBH brought in JA and ML, that he sees these guys as being real contributors down the line. And granted, I haven’t seen Jrue play, but I’m not down on him. I’m sure when he puts on the blue and gold, I’m going to be a huge fan of his, but that said, it could not have hurt this team to have had RW and DC back this season. Perhaps JS would have lost time with CBH going to a smaller, 3 guard line-up at times (DC, RW, and Jrue), but if anything, I think that would help in those times where JS goes cold, when RW can’t get his offense going, and as I’m sure will happen (because it happens to every basketball player, including Magic and Jordan) to Jrue too. Yes, I agree JA and ML would have lost time this year had RW stayed, but there’s no way to know who will get injured (look at how much time RW got at PG when DC went down), and it’s not like DC was getting huge minutes his freshman year when JF, AA, CB, and JS were getting all the time. He turned out just fine and I’m sure JA and ML would have turned out fine had RW returned and they had fewer minutes.

The point I made and I think you overlooked is that this team would be even stronger with RW and I think (emphasis on it being my own opinion and not fact) writing him off so easily is a bit short-sighted. Having more quality players never hurts a team. I’ve never heard a coach complain, “oh man, we just have too many quality guys here, it’s so problematic.” Look no further than Boston to see how that worked out.

As to K-Love and freshmen mistakes, yes, he did make some first-year mistakes. There were some bad passes and poor shot selection from him at times. I don’t fault him for that. That’s part of the game, it’s part of the learning process. I think it’s kind of silly to think K-Love was some kind of perfect player. He did a great job for us. I think he would have done a much better job for us if he stayed for a second season because of what he learned over the course of this season. Was K-Love not a much better player at the end of the year than he was at the beginning? IIRC, his performances at the end of the year were much better and consistent than at the beginning. I think that’s attributable to him being a freshman and learning the ropes as the season went on. Every freshman makes mistakes and I suspect Jrue will too. That’s fine. I don’t expect him to be perfect. But I bet money that Jrue will be a ton better at the end of the year than the beginning, as he learns and grows within the college game and CBH’s system (which will work out well for us if DC and JH can get hot in March).

As for Roll, I think you’re writing the kid off. When he was healthy, he was our best outside threat and he does a lot that doesn’t show up in the stat sheet. He’s a quality defender and a great passer. He knows how to get the ball inside. I think the places we struggled this year, 3 point shooting when JS got cold and getting the ball inside to Love at times, were areas Roll would have greatly improved our squad. We didn’t need Roll to be quick off the dribble and create. What killed us at times was our inability to stretch the floor and force teams to guard us on the perimeter, freeing up Love. At times, when JS was cold, teams were able to sag down and double and triple K-Love, or just outright deny him the ball. I agree that Roll’s not a world-beater, but he’s a very solid contributor and losing him this year, I think, really hurt our depth. I’m not willing to write him off.

Again, just my opinions. Like you, I think we’re set for another deep tournament run, and I’m sure CBH is telling his guys he expects nothing less than another FF appearance, if not the whole damn thing this year. So refreshing to have a coach we can all support and get behind for a change.

...but I still think he’s a solid on the ball defender, and I think evidence of that is found in the fact that guys who are considered elite, lottery pick guys (Rose, Mayo, and Bayless) all either performed below their season average when guarded by RW or showed hesitation in attempting to drive on RW (see the discussion above).

I think what will aid RW, even on a team without a solid defensive system, is his absolutely outstanding athleticism. He’s demonstrated very good coachability and I think he’ll have minimal trouble making the transition to the next level, similar to how well JF has performed this year for the Lakers due to his athletic ability and ability to learn from Phil and the Lakers staff.

As for AA (I hate to be that guy, but I’m a big AA fan, so I feel like I have to point out his name is spelt Arron, not Aaron), I’m not sure what you’re basing your assessment on relative to JF since JF had a very solid season for the Lakers off the bench.

Jordan averaged 20.6 minutes per game and put up 9.1 points (shooting 46% from the field, 37% from downtown, and 70% from the line), 2.2 rebounds, 2.7 assists, nearly a steal per game, and 1.32 turnovers per game. Arron, on the other hand, averaged 12.9 minutes per game, putting up 3.7 points per game (shooting 41% from the field, 21% from downtown, and 78% from the line), 1.8 rebounds, 0.7 assists, 0.4 steals, and 0.45 turnovers per game.

Granted, AA is much more intense and was the emotional leader of our Bruins, even when JF was running the point. That said, I don’t think JF is lacking in intensity, and at this point in their young professional careers, I think it’s hard to judge who will be “better” although I’m sure both will have very good, but not stellar All-Star/MVP type careers. Don’t get me wrong, I love both to death, but I think both are going to very, very, very good NBA players, but I don’t think they will reach the level of superstardom we equate to guards like D-Wade, Pierce, Kobe, Billups, CP3, etc.

Anyway, given these numbers, I think JF is going to have a very solid career, and I hope Arron does as well, although, based on this and what I’ve seen from both in the NBA and during their time at UCLA is that Jordan will outshine Arron, simply because he is more athletic and Arron struggles to score from the perimeter in the Association, and thus, because of his size (relative to larger SGs like Kobe and Paul Pierce) will make it hard for him to get his points since he’s running at SG and not PG.

RW, on the other hand, will be running the PG for some lucky franchise, and thus, will be matched up against guys more along his size, which (as Rondo showed) will allow him to drive and get into the paint with a bit more ease than Arron has had so far when he’s been in. I think RW has both the athletic ability and basketball IQ/coachability to succeed in the NBA, perhaps more so than both JF and AA.

Just some thoughts.

Being drafted so much higher than JF and AA means there will be more expected of RW, but being a Ben Howland guy, I think he’s not one to let the hype get to him. He’s an intense kid and I think expectations will fuel his game.

The other thing about expectations is where he ends up. If he lands in Seattle, I don’t think the expectations will be as high as, say, Miami, Chicago, or New York (where success was in the not-too-distant past). Seattle knows they’re a rebuilding project and they’re looking at either Beasley, Westbrook, and Bayless to join Durant as part of the future nucleus of that team (whether it’s in Seattle or OKC). If RW lands in New York though, I think the pressure of being a lottery pick coupled with the relentless and unforgiving New York media (as opposed to the LA media, which seems to be constantly out-to-lunch) would definitely add a lot of pressure.

As for JF, he has a chance to turn into a very solid starting PG (Fisher is going to have to retire at some point in time down the line) and with Fisher and Kobe, he has a pair of very talented and experienced guys to learn from. If he takes the lessons from those two to heart, he has a real chance to be a late blooming All-Star (kind of like how it took Billups all those years to finally blow up).

As for AA, I wouldn’t be surprised to see him starting in the not-too-distant future. The Pistons have come up just short the last couple of years and it’s clear they need one more piece to finally get back to the very top. I think with Stuckey coming on so strong late this season, I wouldn’t be shocked if the Pistons moved either Rip or Billups to get some more talent down low and went younger in the backcourt.

As for Jennings running off to Europe, I think that’s more of a desperation move on his part if he can’t get academically eligible to play for Lute this season. I’d love to see the old man deprived of his star recruit (which would basically mean his entire offense is Budinger and the not-at-all fearsome duo of Wise and Hill) (I’m trying not to laugh at Arizona’s misery right now). As for Jefferson, I presume you mean Duh-von, and given his absolute stupidity, I can’t even use the word smart in the same sentence as his name (except for that sentence, of course).

As for the whole Europe thing in general, I’m not surprised it hasn’t happened yet. The new one year out of high school requirement is relatively new and no one has gone to Europe from the States and then returned for the draft.

Sure, European guys get drafted all the time, but the majority aren’t success stories (for every Parker and Dirk, there’s a bunch of Rasho Nestrovic’s, Andrea Bargnari’s, and Darko’s…and that’s not counting all those European second-rounders you never even hear about that end up getting drafted and never coming over at all). That said, even the successful European guys are actually foreign players; none of them are Americans who went there with the intent of returning for the draft. There’s a certain amount of apprehension for breaking the mold, so I’m not too surprised no one has done it yet because no one knows if it’ll work and how well it would work (in terms of maintaining or improving draft status).

As much as NBA scouts hit up the international game, there is still no substitute for playing a year for a top NCAA program, getting national exposure on WWL, etc. The great benefit to staying here rather than Europe is you get to benefit from the Great American Basketball Hype Machine. In Europe, not so much, and you’re playing second fiddle to football (which is by far and away the most dominate sport in Europe). In America? As a college basketball player, you basically own the month of March, so that’s certainly a major advantage for guys who are thinking not only of their draft status, but in terms of future endorsement deals. Name recognition is huge.

Again, just some thoughts.

I copied and pasted our discussion re: the European one-and-done alternative in a new thread that Fox started re: Jennings. Hopefully more people will throw some ideas out there and generate discussion on it (aside from you and I). Haha.