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SI's Preseason Rankings

As background, I should say that I am suspicious of preseason polls (and polls in general). Just look at the Coaches poll that was released last week and compare it to the final rankings last year, and you'll see why I view them, at best, with a grain of salt. Essentially, the preseason poll is the final poll of last season with slight adjustments based on a program's perceived loss of talent to loss of eligibility (some would say "lost to graduation" but we know that a large percentage of college football players do not graduate by the time they leave school). Thus, 8 of the top 10 teams in the preseason poll were in the top 10 after the last bowl season. The two that dropped out moved down exactly 6 spots. Of the preseason top 25, 22 were ranked at the end of last season, with the 3 new entrants among the last 5 to be ranked (21 South Florida, 23 Wake Forest and 25 Fresno State). Not exactly a sea change. And you can understand that it has something to do with pollsters probably beginning with last year's final poll and adjusting up or down based on perceived talent changes, much like they do each week based on whether a team wins or loses (but less on who they play or the margin of victory).

One preseason poll that I do tolerate is the one at SI. This is for four reasons: (1) It's not really a poll (collective opinion) but the opinion of one guy named Stewart Mandel, (2) Stew throws out his previous rankings every week and starts from scratch, thus reducing his reliance on the final poll from the prior season, (3) starting from scratch each week allows him to quickly correct misperceptions and makes him more likely to take chances, and (4) it ranks all 119 of the teams in the division formerly known as 1-A.

Today, he released his preseason rankings. UCLA came in at #64. (64!!! Oh, how the mighty have fallen.) This places us 7th in the Pac-10 and closer in the rankings to the 10th place team (20 ahead of #84 WSU) than the 5th place team (25 behind #39 Cal). It also places us lower 9 of our 12 opponents (all but Washington, Stanford and WSU) and 25 places or more behind 8 of our 12 opponents (Arizona is only 11 places higher).

That sounds like a recipe for disaster--if you believe the polls and the rankings. Luckily for me, I don't, so I am going to remain optimistic and excited about this season and hope that the team exceeds these pre-season expectations by far.

This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of BruinsNation's (BN) editors. It does reflect the views of this particular fan though, which is as important as the views of BN's editors.

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I am excited about this season and optimistic

However, I don’t have any problem with SI’s rankings.

It sounds about right and we have written number of posts on this concerning our preseason expectations/predictions heading into this season explanining why we are not expecting all that much this season.

by Nestor on Aug 6, 2008 5:15 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

You're Wrong

SI is dumbing down the predictions to protect CRN. Not.

It’s interesting how many polls and predictions are consistent with our analysis about the upcoming season.

I think the difference is that most of us actually think we will be better than 64th and that, because of our coaching, will win a couple of games we will be predicted to lose.

Nestor, your analysis of this team, its potential and its weaknesses has been spot on. And, most serious writers seem to agree with you.

sjh

by Class of 66 on Aug 8, 2008 6:05 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Mandel

is one of the better writers out there and one of only a handful of opinions in the MSM that I respect. I don’t really disagree with his predictions, but I will say that you can’t really infer Pac 10 predictions from a national poll like this. We have a very tough non-conference schedule and a few non-conference losses will cause our national ranking to fall while not affecting our conference standings. We get 5 of 9 conference games at the Rose Bowl this year which will help too.

by Ryan Rosenblatt on Aug 6, 2008 5:22 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

He's a cool guy!

I met him in a bar on the upper west side a few years ago while we were watching a UCLA-UW basketball game (which we lost…). His friend was completely amazed that I recognized Stewart, then another one of their friends came in, and the guy asked me if I recognized him…it was Luke Winn…the guy was dumbfounded! LOL! That was funny. Except we lost the game.

by tasser10 on Aug 8, 2008 10:46 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Low expectations are good

... for now. I am really not expecting much from this season. I’m more interested in seeing how we develop as the weeks go on. I’m glad we are ranked fairly low and we really should be. When you’re ranked that low, any move upward will make this season all that much more of a success. And if we do very well (7 or 8 wins), I’ll know that we will be much better in the future.

So i say go ahead and overlook us.

by UCLAbruin920 on Aug 7, 2008 12:48 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

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