FanPost

Numerical Analysis: Fresno State

My previous post, "Quantitative Analysis," sought to find some objective reasons behind the difference between the results of our first two games, especially in light of some posts here on BN commenting on the size disparity between BYU players and our Bruins. My post showed that BYU has a significant size advantage as does UA, which correlated to a similar outcome against the Wildcats last weekend.

This post focuses on this weekend's game against FSU and introduces more numbers for those inclined. I was a south campus undergrad, so I will understand if you north campus folks just glaze over this. :)

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The charts above compare the average weights of Fresno State and UCLA's OL and DL with their first three opponents. The chart shows the weight difference between each teams' OL and DL, with a separate comparison when including just upperclassmen to approximate starters. The accuracy of this is questionable. I haven't found a way to get actual starters/players that log significant minutes. For Fresno State, it turns out that the weight of their upperclassmen actually averages less than the overall average. Only 5 out of 16 OL are upperclassmen. In fact, only 4 out of 18 UCLA OL are upperclassmen. So the upperclassmen columns may be irrelevant. Sticking with the overall averages, FSU's net weight advantage/disadvantage (+9, -3, +15) correlates directly with the results of their first three games, as does UCLA's, for the most part. One would think that FSU's +15 advantage over Toledo would have resulted in a more substantial win, versus the 1-pt 2OT victory, especially in light of the previous close game against Wisconsin. FSU's +6 advantage over the Bruins puts this weekend's game more in the tossup category. Again, this analysis does not account for skill levels and other relevant factors, but at least FSU won't have a shear size advantage as did BYU and UA.

Two more charts below break down the number of players by position and class.

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So just some more numerical analysis as a diversion to get me through to the weekend. In any case, I'll be there at the Rose Bowl. I guess I'll have to do my part to offset all of the Bulldog fans coming down the I-5. Let's hope we see significant incremental improvement and the Kevin Craft from the 2nd half of the Tennessee game.

<em>This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of BruinsNation's (BN) editors. It does reflect the views of this particular fan though, which is as important as the views of BN's editors.</em>

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