Speculation On JH/NBA: Don't Set Yourself Up For A Heartbreak
Brian Dohn writes this in one of his weekly Q&A posts:
Do you see Jrue Holiday coming back for another season? The backcourt for the Bruins will be thin next year if the team loses Collison and Holiday.
I don't know. I never did until I talked to him this week and he told me he thought he would come back for a second season. That will be included in my story Sunday.
I wanted to get ahead of this before the article pops up tomorrow am. I am going to go ahead and predicit that JH gave Dohn some boilerplate statement re. how much he is enjoying UCLA (and how can he not?) and also committed to his team-mates and academics. I don't think it is that difficult to see how JH really enjoys his freshmen team-mates. The chemistry has been obvious from the get-go.
All that said, I strongly recommend everyone here on Bruins Nation (just like I did wrt to KL) to not fall into some hopeful trap. Remember NBA drafts are all about potential and not necessarily performance. If JH somehow takes his offensive game to a whole another level later in the year and explodes during the Big Dance, I can easily see himself in the same position RW found himself in at the end of last season when not going to the NBA would have meant leaving millions on the table. That is awfully difficult for anyone to do.
So don't get your hopes up. All we can do is to take it game by game and hope JH and his team-mates improve week to week, putting themselves in best possible position to win the conference and make a run at the end of the season. We will let the chips fall where they may at that point. After it's all over if JH decides to go it shouldn't be a surprise to anyone here on BN given his potentail as a basketball player. As mentioned above and repeatedly before on BN, the NBA is all about potential. So whatever your thoughts are on JH and the NBA, don't set yourself up for a heartbreak.
Again, I wanted to get ahead of this now and will not bother talking about it tomorrow on gameday when Dohn comes out with the story. Instead we will keep the focus on our opponent.
GO BRUINS.
This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of BruinsNation's (BN) editors. It does reflect the views of this particular fan though, which is as important as the views of BN's editors.
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18 comments
Comments
I think there's a far better chance that JH comes back
than there was ever a chance that KL came back. That said, as great as UCLA is, it’s tough to turn down being a lottery pick. I have no doubt JH loves Westwood and his teammates and the college game, but when you sit down and think about being a top 10 pick, it’s tough to turn down.
by Ryan Rosenblatt on Jan 10, 2009 1:26 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
There Are Plenty of Athletes Who Turn Down The Pro's to Stay in School
No offense to anyone intended, but I’m a bit tired of hearing how it is inevitable that if money is put before a one year player he will leave — and that is to be both expected and accepted.
I don’t expect it and I really don’t accept it.
Without making any value judgments, because each choice is individual, there are lots of kids who turn down money. To them, money isn’t everything. Some value education. Some want to experience college as something more than a minor league. And, some realize that they have stuff to learn before turning pro — in the class room and on the playing field.
(And, all over the campus there are students whose behavior is not guided by the “let’s see how I can maximize my income” philosophy. Altruism is not completely dead, yet.)
I just do not accept that all decisions are motivated by money. And, therefore, I am somewhat critical of one and dones.
Tebow could have gone pro, last year. He surely can go pro this year — but I will not be surprised if he does not. He does not come from a rich family and I’m sure his family would be more comfortable were he to have turned pro.
DC could have gone pro last year. I know, he might not have made as much money — but the opportunity cost of playing this year at UCLA is probably greater than what he would have lost by being drafted a little later last year. Money was not everything to him.
I do not want to re-kindle the debate of last year — I’m tired of talking about it, but I would prefer not to have any one and done players at UCLA. I’d prefer not to have them, anywhere, but we can’t control that. One and done’s — either here or elsewhere waste a spot in the University and never reap the benefits it has to bestow. One and done’s have made great educational institutions “farm teams”, and I don’t like that.
I admire KL but he will never be one of my favorites in the same way LMR is. And, if JH goes, so be it, but he too, even if we win a national championship, will not be a favorite.
He may be a great kid and is truly a gifted player, and he didn’t write the rules that force him to do a year of college — but I’d prefer that all who come here make a promise to CBH to stay at least 2 years. I know that is totally unenforceable, but I think we should do it, anyway. I think it would be hard for any one to break a promise made to CBH.
sjh
by Class of 66 on Jan 10, 2009 2:16 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
Well said
and I am generally behind you. We would all love to have these players stick around as long as possible and give us a (better) chance at bringing in #12. It seems that the teams that have won championships recently have all benefitted from NBA-potential players turning down the NBA for a shot at a championship. Was true with KU last year and Florida before that. True with prohibitive favorite UNC this year.
Of course, every successful program will have their early departures, and UCLA, KU, Florida, UNC, etc are no exception. That is why I think NBA declaration day is just as important as Signing day, IMO. The teams that are fortunate enough, for whatever reason, to have that special impact player or players, willing to come back to college for one common goal, are the ones with the best shot at a championship.
by godblesstyus95 on Jan 10, 2009 3:40 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
It's the NCAA
that creates so many " one and dones ", not NBA scouts that perenially prowl and scour the college landscapes, looking for the gems nor the greed and selfishness of the 19 year olds.
Division I coaches recruit what’s best out there. They can’t say we only want the best and the committed ones. One and dones need not apply. Maybe someday some super snakeoil salesman would find a way. Until then, unless NCAA changes its rule, stellar programs will continue to function as revolving doors for so many precocious prep talents. John Stockton & company are rare phenomenon of the days long gone by.
by Htse005 on Jan 11, 2009 9:39 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Howland decides
who will be wearing blue and gold. He can tell a recruit that the young man must commit two years, or more, to UCLA – although he’s obviously willing to entertain some one and dones. It’s not realistic – given the current atmosphere – to expect many five-star recruits to commit to more than one or two years. That is why I am encouraged by CBH’s incoming class – primarily three and four star (high quality) athletes who might be more likely to buy into team success. These are young men who still have to work on their game and are, hopefully, aware of the true value of a UCLA scholarship.
With Tebow returning for his senior year, and Hansborough sticking it out at UNC, perhaps there will be a limited return to those days ‘long gone by.’
UCLA - the finest public university in the world!
by SecondGenBruin on Jan 12, 2009 9:11 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
The difference between KL or JH
and Tebow or DC is both KL and JH were or will be top 10 picks. From a basketball standpoint, there’s not much higher they can go. DC was projected to be picked between 20-25 so if he improved his strength and finishing in the lane, he could move up into the lottery. Tebow was projected to be a 3rd or 4th round pick last year and a 2nd round pick this year. He could still improve his passing and move up into the first round. I don’t expect all players to turn pro just because they can, but I expect 80% of top 10 picks to turn pro and that’s what JH would be. I’d love for him to surprise me and stay, but I don’t think it will happen.
by Ryan Rosenblatt on Jan 10, 2009 2:29 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
Yep
I will also add as much as we love AA, he would have most likely jumped if the was a top-10 pick by the end of his freshman or soph year.
by Nestor on Jan 10, 2009 2:48 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
While I still think JH is one-and-done...
…I think there is a much higher percentage chance of him staying for a second season than there was for KL. Everyone knew KL was here for a year and that was it. There was a small glimmer of hope he’d stay, but the odds were always very slim to none.
With JH, I still think he’ll only be in Westwood for a year. That said, I think there is an actual, realistic chance he could stay. Unlike KL, I don’t think it’s a for-sure lock he’ll declare. I think it’s going to happen, that it’s certainly more likely than not to happen.
In lawyer speak, KL was gone beyond a reasonable doubt. JH is gone, in my opinion, by clear and convincing evidence. To quantify it for the non-lawyers, I’d say there was a 95% chance of KL going to the NBA after one season. For JH, I’d say it’s a 70% to 75% chance he’ll go to the NBA.
Sure, KL is a once-in-a-generation type player. But, I think the real difference is the recruiting class as a whole. KL came in with only one other recruit: Chace Stanback, who like KL, is no longer with the Bruins. Our current freshmen came in as a class of five, and by all accounts, are a pretty tight-knit group. Unlike our current freshmen, I don’t think KL and Chace were very close. KL was the starting center, the budding star, the BMOC. Chace was a benchwarmer who only saw garbage-time action.
Moreover, from the comments we’ve seen from DC, this year’s Bruins are much more in tune with one another:
“I think we have a lot more chemistry that we’ve had in the last three or four years,” Collison said. “We have a lot better shooters, we’ve got way better passers than last year. This team seems to be clicking.”
Last year, we heard a lot of unsubstantiated rumors coming out that JS and KL didn’t see eye-to-eye, that all the attention KL got was making things uncomfortable for the upperclassmen, etc. I don’t know if there is any truth to that, but I tend to believe where there is smoke, there’s fire. I don’t think it ever caused a problem for our team last year, but I definitely feel that this year’s team is much closer than last, and I think DC’s comments reinforce that.
So, all-in-all, I think the real difference is that JH feels much closer to his teammates and to UCLA than KL did. Bear in mind, KL grew up in Oregon, the son of an Oregon basketball player. I doubt he grew up dreaming of blue-and-gold as SoCal natives like JH, ML, and JA did. Obviously, that won’t stop a guy from going pro (JF is the ultimate example: a SoCal native who dreamed of UCLA and the Lakers, and got both . . . the lucky b**tard).
While I’m not going to expect JH to come back next year, I wouldn’t be shocked if he stayed. Yes, KL projected higher in the draft than JH will I think. But, I think that’s only part of the equation. There’s more at UCLA for JH than there was for KL and I think it’ll be a lot harder for him to leave than it was for KL.
Just something else to think about.
by Bellerophon on Jan 11, 2009 9:37 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
FWIW
He sounds non-committal:
“The coaches here are sure I can go one-and-done, but right now I really don’t think I am,” Holiday said. “I think I’ll be here next year. I love it. We’ll see how the season goes, but I love it. I love being home. I live 20 minutes away, and it’s like my family here.”
I agree with you though. There is a sliver of a chance of him returning next year. However, if he is a sure fire top-10 pick, it will be tough for him to come back.
by Nestor on Jan 11, 2009 9:54 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I just hope
that a little bit of DC rubs off on him. I hope he looks at DC and thinks, I want to be more like him and staying at UCLA, under CBH, will get me there. I also he stays another year so he can get some time at the PG position, which is what he’ll likely play in the NBA. But that’s about all I can do, is hope. At least it will be fun watching him along the way.
by UCLAbruin920 on Jan 11, 2009 10:44 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
If Jrue Holiday leaves,
there will be other Gatorade Players of The Year down the road wanting to come. This is 2009, almost the end of the first decade of the new century. Holiday is not a member of the Bob McCaDoo ( I hope I spelled his last name right ) generation when you needed to verify in court a background of abject poverty before you even merited a consideration to play in the pro ranks.
I am sure some of us would have looked at KLove differently had he won that coveted #12 in his only season at Westwood. Then, all that wistful debates about whether UCLA’s diploma, aura, pride, experience etc should outweigh NBA’s $$$ for a few years will certainly have been muted by what would have been a brand new banner #12 high up in Pauley Pavilion’s rafters.
by Htse005 on Jan 11, 2009 9:57 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Respectfully Disagree: My Opinions Are Not Changed or "Certainly Muted" By Banners
Maybe it’s because I was around with Coach, but my perspective is very different.
It’s not about banners. It never was to the greatest coach of all time and it is not to me — and probably not to those in my generation of Bruin.
My opinion of KL is favorable — but he will not go down in my Bruin Hall of Fame.
My opinion of the practice of the “one and done” is not.
Winning a banner will change neither opinion.
Those of us who were around when the man who hung those banners started hanging them will tell you that nothing could be farther from Coach’s philosophy than your last sentence:
“Then, all that wistful debates about whether UCLA’s diploma, aura, pride, experience etc should outweigh NBA’s $$$ for a few years will certainly have been muted by what would have been a brand new banner #12 high up in Pauley Pavilion’s rafters.”
We should not try to be what we ought not be — a farm team or basketball factory — just to win a banner. We won quite a few the right way.
sjh
by Class of 66 on Jan 11, 2009 11:19 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I agree with '66
I am aware that pro basketball awaits lots of college players, but I don’t care. We have a team at UCLA, and I root for this team all the time. Once our players go on, I wish them success, but it’s not that big a deal to me how or what they do. The guys we get at UCLA are often better than many of their contemporaries, but our current coach and Coach turned those individual guys into a team. If our team plays the way Coach taught them, or the way Coach Howland teaches them, then we may or may not win the tournament and get another banner.
And while we’re at it, here’s my proposed rule for scholarship athletes. A player is awarded a scholarship for four years. That scholarship can’t be given to any other player unless there are exigent circumstances (illness or injury). Dropping out of school or going professional or, for justsc players, getting thrown in jail, would not be exigent circumstances. So if Timmeh wants a one-and-done guy, then he’ll have to find some walk on to fill that hole. justsc of course can use Cheatie Petie’s son to handle the try-outs for the walk-on’s. (Whistle!)
by Fox 71 on Jan 11, 2009 3:20 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
another proposed idea
is to do what college baseball does. The real culprit is the NBA rule that doesn’t allow players to turn pro out of high school. Therefore, make the players make a choice. They can either go pro out of high school, but if they decide to play in college, they must stay for a certain number of years (I would say 2, i’ve had friends argue 3).
Either way, the point is that the one-and-dones will stop, but a gifted player like KL, OJ2, or further back, LeBron James would be able to play in the pros right away when they’re ready.
by bucknellbruin on Jan 11, 2009 7:21 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I agree with N on this one
I am hoping that JH returns, and he certainly seems like he has more incentive to do so than KL did last year, but it would not be surprising if he were to go if he was a lottery pick.
66’s viewpoints certainly resonate with me, and I wish that there would be more programs and athletes who subscribe to the mentality that Coach taught, but I think modern society really pushes back against that. I really do believe that what you can gain being coached under coach Howland for one or two more years is worth more than the couple million you can earn by jumping early, both monetarily in the long run and also as a person, but it is still a challenging argument to make and one that I think will be rejected more often than not.
Having said that, it makes guys like Tebow (who announced he will stay on WWL), Colt McCoy (if he stays at Texas) and Collison all the more special when they forgo the huge contracts and the allure of money for something that they view as greater. Like 66 said, I will feel a small bit of pride when KL succeeds in the NBA, as I’m sure he will, but it will never be the same sentiment that I have for LMR, DC, AA.
by bruinbunz on Jan 11, 2009 12:38 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
JH has a lot more to learn
Unless I see him start to dominate on offense and start passing for lots of assists (which is a possibility), he will not be playing up to his full potential.
Our team similarly has a long way to go this season. Right now they are not a tournament team. Hopefully there is time for them to develop the consistency and, for lack of a better word, killer instinct to gain a good half time lead against a quality opponent and then turn it in to a blowout in the second half.
If they can do that, the sky is the limit, but this year it is DC’s team. Even if they win it all, JH will still have something to prove in college basketball. If he comes back he can make this team his. If he can get a title and be the best guard in the nation he will have achieved everything possible in college basketball.
Some might say that being a four time national champion (like some of the womens water polo team) is the pinnacle but basketball is big business and it’s not right to expect a player to jeopardize a very lucrative career by staying too long.
Today is a time when a bird in the hand is truly better than two in the bush. These kids shouldn’t take any chances.
by layout on Jan 12, 2009 11:19 AM PST reply actions 0 recs
just adding
JH is a combo-guard who projects to be a lead guard in the NBA. I think that he would be better served coming back for at least another year to get experience running the point, but RW’s current success in the NBA proves that while it’s beneficial to have college experience at the 1, it isn’t necessary. JH is a great player and a great kid, but we’ll still have ML and JA, as well as Tyler Honeycutt coming in next year.
Personally, I don’t mind the “one and done” type of prospects because every program plays by the same rules. My father and I tend to argue about this because he’s “old school” and subscribes to the same train of thought as Fox and 66 above. He often waxes nostalgic about how Alcindor, Walton, and Goodrich all earned their degrees, and these modern day players couldn’t hold their gym shorts. I understand his affinity for college life and the importance of earning a degree. I believe it’s the university’s mission to prepare its students for life by setting them on a career path. For regular students that means completing your degree. If I were offered my current position after my freshman year instead of going through 4 years of undergrad and 2 years of B-school, I would be foolish not to jump at the opportunity.
by ishXdavid on Jan 12, 2009 3:43 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
My Two Cents
Let’s just enjoy JH as a Bruin while he’s with us. He will decide his own future, and he probably won’t make that decision for a while. He’s a young man, in his first year of college, and he’s having a great time, by the sounds of it. All is, IMHO, as it should be.
Love My Bruins
by Bruingirl83 on Jan 13, 2009 11:03 AM PST reply actions 0 recs

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