Bumped. GO BRUINS. -N

For the past couple of years, whenever UCLA has played Arizona, the focus of Bruin fans and commentators who follow the team has been on Chase Budinger (and, last year, Jerryd Bayless).  This is understandable: Budinger was one of the nation's most heralded recruits out of high school, has generally produced as a highly regarded prospect should and has been a primary offensive option for Arizona since he entered the program.  As the Bruins prepare to face the Wildcats for the first time in the 2008-09 season, however, it's important for us to recognize an interesting truth about this version of Arizona basketball - namely, that its best player is no longer Chase Budinger, but rather Jordan Hill.

The first thing to note about Jordan Hill is that he's bigger than he was last year, when he was listed at 6'9" and 211 lbs.  He's now listed at 6'10" and 235 lbs., and even accounting for the sketchy measurements that typically populate college media guides, it's clear that Hill is now more of a load than he was last season (when he was already awfully good).

Hill is playing both more minutes and a larger role in the Wildcats' offense than he's ever done.  More important, he's managed to increase his role without sacrificing performance.  (Using Ken Pomeroy's tempo-free metrics, his personal "offensive rating" is about equal to what it was last year.)  Although Hill's shooting is a little down this season, his turnovers are also down, his assists are up, and most crucially, his offensive rebounding is up significantly from what was already an impressive starting point.  NBADraft.net remarked recently that Hill is quite possibly "the most improved player in the nation" and project that he will be the 5th overall pick (seven spots ahead of Budinger) in the 2009 NBA draft.

It's that last statistic noted above - offensive rebounding - that concerns me the most heading into Thursday's game.  Last year, Hill rebounded 11.4% of his team's missed shots, which is a very good number that ranked 152nd in the nation.  This year, however, he's rebounding a ridiculous 17.7% of Wildcat misses, good for 5th in the nation.  The Bruins' problems with defensive rebounding, much discussed on BN, result in the danger that Hill could wreak significant havoc on the offensive boards on Thursday night.  So when you're watching the game, keep an eye on our defensive rebounding early on.  If Hill is creating numerous second chances on the offensive glass, klaxons should begin to sound in your head.

(Incidentally, this might result in increased playing time for Drew Gordon, who has been our best defensive rebounder on a per-minute basis.)

As for Budinger, he's still a dangerous player, of course.  But so far in 2008-09, he has not been using as many Arizona possessions as he did last year, despite the departure of Bayless.  In addition, his turnovers are up, and his assists are down.  He remains Arizona's top perimeter threat, but at the risk of oversimplifying, I don't think that the matchup between him and UCLA's wing defenders will be where Thursday's game is won or lost.

In my view, the outcome will be largely decided in the paint, in the battle between Jordan Hill and the Bruin big-man rotation.