Notes on Arizona

Bumped. GO BRUINS. -N

I'm not sure if I'll be able to put up notes on Arizona State later this week since I'll be in Vegas betting my life on UCLA to put ASU in their place.   But here's my take on Zona and where our defensive problems will be, since I also think that's where the key to victory ultimately lies (a persistent theme here at BN).   In my opinion, Arizona has to score 70 to have a good chance of winning.  They allow 63 points per game against competition far less explosive than UCLA.  Our output against USC last Sunday was a result of the type of defense Arizona is often unwilling to muster and almost certainly incapable of repeating.  Also, Arizona is winless on the road.  Playing the Bruins at Pauley won't be easy.  However, Arizona is a team with obvious NBA talent.  Hill and Budinger will be a handful and appear to be complete mismatches relative to the Bruins' defensive strengths.  UCLA will have to find the hot hand (good time for Roll to get going again) and get a combination of high percentage shots.  There won't be many second chance points with Jordan Hill clearing the paint.

The biggest threat will be how Budinger and co. produce offensively.  As Rye noted in the comments on Nestor's last post, Josh Shipp should probably get duties on Budinger, but I see him getting guarded by committee (Jrue, Keefe, and Drago?).  Now I appreciate the job JH did on Derozan, but Budinger is a completely different player in my opinion.  He does not have Derozan's lateral quickness, but he sure as hell  can jump.  His back-to-the-basket game is far superior than Derozan's and can create his own shot in a way that could nullify JH's advantage in quickness.  Budinger doesn't have to dribble much to get it off since he can elevate so well and hit turnaround jump shots with regularity.  Shipp is far stronger than JH and can lean on Budinger in the post (where I think he will spend a fair amount of time) to force him out of a good shot.  Budinger might be able to get a better look off of the smaller, weaker Jrue.  However, this matchup will require multiple defensive looks and putting JH on Budinger will definitely be an option, especially if Arizona decides to spread out their attack.  Overall, there isn't one player that can guard him and it would take an NBA talent with similar size to completely take him out of the game (a la Luc last year).

This is where Hill could make a huge difference.  If our rotations are slow and they're getting open looks from three and open dunks on the weakside because of his presence down low, it could be a long night.  Even if Arizona is cold from outside, the Bruins' defensive rebounding hasn't been very good.  This is where Arizona scares me with Hil: offensive put backs and open looks.  Arizona's shooters, however limited, are at least going to be ready to shoot.  They know we double the post and they know Hill will get plenty of attention from sagging defenders in the lane.  Open looks to Budinger and Wise and Zona could put up 75+.  On the other side, our shots need to fall, because we might not get many second chances with Hill grabbing rebounds.  This is a tough one to call.  Jordan Hill is the best big man we'll face all year (unless we somehow get Oklahoma or Connecticut in the tourney) and Budinger doesn't have Luc on his jersey this year.  Both could score 20.  And that's tough to beat.  Collison will have to have a huge game (which I think he will) and our shots need to fall, because Arizona is going to score enough to at least give us scare.  Thank god they're not too deep and don't have nearly as many good shooters as the Bruins.  Howland's gameplan has our players prepared for Arizona's relative size and we get some turnovers.  Bruins win on defense... again.  GO BRUINS.