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Around SBN: The End Of Sabanball: Details, Barbarians, And Precision

Spaulding Roundup: Flickers Of Bruin Hope In Corvallis

Well I went on record last week that we were staring at a 5 game losing streak. We didn't see anything in the dispiriting loss against Arizona to change that outlook. Our quarterback situation is fuzzy and injuries are piling up a bit (more on that below) on the defensive front. There is a total sense of doom and gloom that has taken over not only just BN but seems like the general Bruin community both on and offline. Any way you look at this weekend's game it is shaping up to be a classic nightmare during a very cliche Halloween weekend. Yet early this morning when I was looking through the numbers for both Oregon State and UCLA, I did find little flickers of hope.

Lets see here. Here are some data points to consider:

  • Oregon State ranks 9th in the conference in the category of sacks allowed per game (3.14). On the flip side UCLA ranks 7th in the conference in sacks per game (1.86). Here is the key stat though. UCLA is ranks 2nd in the conference in the category of "tackles for loss" (7.71 per game) thanks to exploits of Brian Price and co. So, I am guessing if Mr. Bullough decides to shake things up just a bit, show different looks other than his boring and vanilla 4-3 scheme, and I don't know try to bring some heavy pressure on Canfield, things could get a little interesting. No?
  • The Quizz is an amazing football player. We all know about him at this point. He is ranked second in the conference rushing for 115.71 yards per game. However, here is the interesting note. Oregon State over all is not a juggaurnaut rushing team. Their rushing offense ranks 7th in the conference. Of course the problem here is matchup wise this is not a fun situation for UCLA because we haven't shown the ability to stop opposing RBs when they get to the outside edge. Perhaps having Aaron Hester this week will help a little but I am not sure. Still it was interesting for me to find out Oregon State is not in the top half of the conference in total rushing offense.
  • On the defensive side of the ball Oregon State is ranked 8th in the conference in scoring defense and ranked 7th in total defense. I don't need to go over in detail about the offensive trouble we have had on our side. No doubt the Oregon State defense is thinking how they are going to improve their stats taking on our meek offense. But hey  - may be - just may be the coaches on the offensive side of ball could think about this game as an opportunity for opening things up again and replicate the performance from the California game (sans the the miscues and settling for FGs).
  • When looking int Oregon States statistics referenced above note they include a 34-7 win over Portland State and a nailbiting 23-21 win over UNLV in which they had to kick a last second FG to eek out the victory.

Now look. There is no way I am discounting the improvement Oregon State has made since the opening two games of this season. I think they are one of the best coached teams not just in the Pac-10 but in the entire West. They have explosive athletes and a very good QB. They are going to be riled up on home coming weekend and look to put a hurt on our Bruins. Yet I throw up those numbers up to point out things shouldn't be that bleak. Again, I have never cared much for moral victories but I do think Bruins might have a shot if they can somehow regroup and just focus on excution, play with fire and play with a sense of nothing to lose. More after the jump.

Star-divide

Mentioned above that defensive injuries are piling up. From the LA Times:

The middle of the Bruins' defense took another hit Wednesday, as starting defensive tackle Jerzy Siewierski hobbled off the field on crutches. Siewierski injured his right foot during practice, according to Coach Rick Neuheisel.

"Jerzy tweaked something," Neuheisel said. "We'll find out the significance of it. We'll have to wait and see."

Siewierski was scheduled to be re-examined this morning. Even if he can play, it adds another problem to a defense that has struggled and has key players hurt.

Linebacker Reggie Carter has practiced little the last three weeks, after injuring his left knee against Oregon. He has not missed a game, but his playing time was limited in a 27-13 loss to Arizona on Saturday. Alterraun Verner, the Bruins' top cornerback, suffered a dislocated toe against Arizona and has been held out some in practice this week.

"It's good," Verner said. "It's definitely better than I thought it would be, especially after Saturday."

Obviously losing Jerzy will be a big hit. Let's hope for the best in terms of news update today. However, if he can't make it on Saturday let's hope our replacements are ready to go. The news on ATV was interesting. I wasn't aware of his toe injury. It might explain just a little how he has looked a step slower in last two weekends (especially against Cal).

ATV and his team-mates are going to be tested this weekend by Sean Canfield who is one of the most accurate passers in the conference. From the Daily News:

Canfield has thrown for 1,734 yards and 11 touchdowns for the 4-3 Beavers and is coming off a 329-yard, three-touchdown performance in Oregon State's 42-36 loss at USC.

"There's no doubt about it. It's confidence and decisiveness," Beavers coach Mike Riley said. "That's not only into the year, but through the year. Almost game to game. He's hung in there and made throws and hasn't blinked, which is a big, big part at quarterback."

UCLA head coach Rick Neuheisel was most impressed by Canfield's consistency, and for good reason.

Canfield has thrown for at least one touchdown in all but one game this year, a 28-18 loss to then-No. 17 Cincinnati in Week 3. Meanwhile, he's thrown multiple interceptions just once; he had two against Arizona in a Week 4 loss and only four for the year.

"He's a very consistent player and he has great command of that offense," Neuheisel said. "He knows where to get the ball and he's very difficult to get to. He's having a very nice season."

Well as I have said multiple times this week our defense cannot allow Canfield to sit in the pocket against a base 4-3 defense early on and let him pick apart our secondary. We will have to bring some pressure on him early (when he is not expecting) and get him off rhythm.

Another thing, I don't want to see from our defense (while watching the replay) is to see our corners giving their receivers 7-8 yard cushion to get a running start. That has been driving me crazy last few weeks to see how opposing receivers have been picking up 6-7 yards without making much of an effort. We are going to need ATV and Hester to be physical and play some tough bump and run to slow down the momentum opposing receivers have had on our DBs in recent weeks.

So what it boils down to is that for our Bruins to have a shot this weekend against Oregon State we will need our coaches to devise a game plan that is on the opposite end of conservative. This is not one of those games in which we are going to be able to "manage" our way into a victory. For the Bruins to steal a win this weekend not only they will have to be disciplined and execute the individual plays, they will have to have schemes that has them attacking the Beavers on both side of the football. We will have to let it all out.  Do I think our coaches can pull it off? We can always hope. Right?

GO BRUINS.

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Another (slight) glimmer of hope:

UCLA has lost 4 straight against the (betting) spread. While certainly it isn’t unusual for a team to lose 4 + games outright, such a losing streak against Vegas odds ARE unusual.

We are listed as 9 point underdogs, which to me seems kinda low. I ask myself: ‘What does Vegas know that we don’t?’ and ‘What are the odds that we lose 5 straight against the spread?’ By that logic, we keep this game within one score or win it outright.

I know it’s a stretch, but what else is there?

by godblesstyus95 on Oct 29, 2009 6:50 AM PDT reply actions  

The line is strange

I think it began at 8.5 and now is at 9.5. Based on the past performances of both teams, IMHO the line is way too low. I just don’t understand it.

I share the same thoughts as you but, in all honesty, I’m preparing for the worst.

by Barnes2JJ on Oct 29, 2009 8:52 AM PDT up reply actions  

I've wondered about that, too but ...

It usually seems right until we just let a game get away.

We all agree, we could have won the last four games — a penalty not committed, a ball caught, a fumble not dropped.

I’ve always looked at the spread and wondered why it wasn’t larger — and then watched us play and thought, they do see something in this team we are not seeing.

I know no one expects us to win this game, but I think we can win this game and all of the others — including sc, if we clean up some of our mistakes and play to our potential.

sjh

by Class of 66 on Oct 29, 2009 8:56 AM PDT up reply actions  

I agree.

My friend and I were talking about that last night. We both (a Beaver and a duck, btw) thought it was a little low, not that UCLA is crap or anything, they just haven’t shown much. We both thought it should be somewhere in the teens but also thought that this could easily be a weekend where UCLA catches fire.

Please don’t catch fire. Not on homecoming. Please.

by ArbyOSU on Oct 29, 2009 11:49 AM PDT up reply actions  

We have the talent

but we just have not been able to put it together. Lots of theories and/or excuses for all the losses.

OSU has a great program right now. Lots to be proud of. A win at the Mausoleum last week would have really been nice.

by Barnes2JJ on Oct 29, 2009 11:58 AM PDT up reply actions  

Tell me about it.

Everyone in the OSU community (players, alum, fans, etc.) circle three games every year: SC, UO and UW. The years we’ve pulled the trifecta have been priceless.

by ArbyOSU on Oct 29, 2009 1:53 PM PDT up reply actions  

LIve broadcast on 570?

Since, the game is tape delayed, anyone know if 570 am will be broadcasting the game live?

by hongerelli on Oct 29, 2009 9:09 AM PDT reply actions  

Yes, I believe so

It shouldn’t affect radio. Game should be on at 1, not sure what time the pregame show starts.

by TheStick on Oct 29, 2009 10:28 AM PDT up reply actions  

I'm just going to ignore all media sources until the tape delay

and pretend like it is live. I don’t enjoy radio broadcasts, and I hate watching something when I know the outcome.

by captainqtp on Oct 29, 2009 10:39 AM PDT up reply actions  

WERD

I hear you, but I know one of my stupid buddies is going to text me about us getting our butts kicked or something. Frickin’ ABC/FOX!!! You’d think in this day and age, the internet would afford freedom to watch games at anytime! Damn, corporate scum!

by hongerelli on Oct 29, 2009 11:24 AM PDT up reply actions  

About Moral Victories ... and proof of excellence

N hates ‘moral victories’ as do most of us who watched Dorrell’s tenure when it was offered as an excuse.
IIRC: the term originally applied to losing to a cheater, hence the notion of ‘morality’. It started being applied to situations where a clear underdog almost wins (as in going into over time). Dorrell started throwing it around every time our team bus found the right stadium.

I like true moral victories – I’d prefer losing honorably than winning by cheating. If you have to cheat you ain’t that good and proof of excellence is a big part of college sports.

The `09 Bruins are a work in progress, so – win or lose – I am looking for sparks of excellence and teamwork. There are some apparent morale issues which look serious. If CRN can keep the lads’ spirits up in the face of adversity and forge a team, instead of crashing and burning, that’ll be proof of excellence in coaching. This will be an interesting end of season.

by JonnyG on Oct 29, 2009 9:36 AM PDT reply actions  

Apparent morale issues?

I don’t see any morale issues. The team plays hard every game, they are into it on the sidelines. If your talking about players bitching about playing time, well that’’s football. I wouldn’t come in here and start being overly general. If you see a “serious” morale issue then you should detail it for the community.

by BruinAl on Oct 29, 2009 12:22 PM PDT reply actions  

We see things differently, I guess

But I think the time to go into details is in the post season – don’t you?

by JonnyG on Oct 29, 2009 10:09 PM PDT up reply actions  

I am still hopeful

Nestor, I am glad you had pointed out the stats. I am not confident but I think we can win if we have a little bit of luck and everyone plays up to his potential. I am not giving up on the team and I truly believe the kids are trying hard. I wish the coaches forget about the conservative strategies. Try to put the more pressure on their quarterback, play Brehaut more, go for 4th and short, use our talented freshmen a lot more, etc…We have nothing to lose at this point.

by NNL on Oct 29, 2009 12:45 PM PDT reply actions  

We will win if:

The D plays hard and smart from the first series;
We don’t commit stupid penalties, especially on D in third down situations;
We don’t drop passes or tip them to defenders;
We put pressure on their QB from the get go — no one can cover forever;
We don’t miss tackles;
We cover whatever kick offs or punts land in the field of play; and,
We don’t fumble — and that means protecting our QB from the blind side AND using RB’s that can hold on to the ball.

None of this is courageous in the sense of taking great risks to win. It is all sound fundamental football.

And, I think we are capable of playing 4 quarters of sound fundamental football.

That’s why we are all so frustrated. Yes, we lost the games we were projected to lose. But, my mantra will continue — we are frustrated because we were in a position to win each of them.

Yes, we are projected to lose to a very fine OSU team — but we can win that game and I think we will.

sjh

by Class of 66 on Oct 29, 2009 1:54 PM PDT reply actions  

Jerry Siewerski Out Indefinitely With Foot Injury

According to LAT he has plantar facitis (sp?) (what Michael Roll had last season), and no estimation of when he will return. As if there weren’t enough challenges for the defense already! They say Jess Ward will start in his place.
Also saw that Pac 10 polls for BB have Cal first, WA second, and UCLA third…………..USC is 9th, and Stanford last.

by bruinmom on Oct 29, 2009 2:32 PM PDT reply actions  

I understand that the game is being

televised on a delay. Does anyone have the info. for the delayed broadcast? I live in the boonies and don’t pic up most of the radio stations out of LA, so I don’t have much choice.

by LongtimeBru on Oct 29, 2009 5:57 PM PDT reply actions  

OK, I found the info in another post.

I assume that if it is on Prime Ticket, that JustinTV will aire the broadcast, no?

by LongtimeBru on Oct 29, 2009 6:36 PM PDT up reply actions  

The one thing i looking forward to is

seeing Knox run the ball more in the place of Ramirez. With him in the backfield our offense could be a little more explosive

by AMM19 on Oct 29, 2009 5:58 PM PDT reply actions  

I am with you on that

Can’t wait to see what Mr. Knox is capable of given some real carries.

by Rico Bruin on Oct 29, 2009 7:25 PM PDT up reply actions  

don't be satisfied

be surprised

There's no one in the world that wants to beat UCLA more than _______.

by ucla13_usc9 on Oct 30, 2009 11:31 PM PDT up reply actions  

Lack of TV coverage

It doesn’t really matter for me since I can neither get radio or watch FSNPT out here and I’ll be driving up to Canada anyway so I’ll track it on my cell phone. I have an ESPN applications that gives me the gamecast live. I think we’ve hashed out a thousand times the things the Bruins are not doing right but one thing I’d like to see (which I wish I was watching tv for) is Bullock to call blitzes against Canfield EARLY. If there is no defensive scheme improvement this week, we should call for his head midseason. There is no way our defensive talent should be this underutilized

"Beating USC isn't a matter of life and death, it's more important than that" -Red Sanders-

by PrincetonBruin on Oct 31, 2009 1:30 AM PDT reply actions  

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