About Punting = Winning
Really interesting article in the Wall Street Journal in light of Bill Belichick's "interesting" decision this past football weekend. Apparently his decision was well supported by the number crunchers.
I am usually in the corner of those who are always pleading the coaches to go for it. However, I have to say even with the numbers on his side, I just couldn't come up with anything to justify it. Then again, if I am Patriots fan, I would give Belichick the same kind of deference I give Coach Ben Howland.
Interesting read.
GO BRUINS.
about 2 years ago
Nestor
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i thnk its a pretty straight forward calculation
What do you think has a higher odds of happening:
the colts scoring a td with 230 left from approx. their own 30 with 3 timeouts and the 2 minute warning
or both of the following happening:
1) NE failing to convert on 4th and 2
AND
2) INdy scoring a TD from the NE 23.
I think 1 is more likely, and therefore agree with Bellicheck’s decision, even though it didn’t work out this time.
"when you've seen how big the world is, how can you make due with this?"
by silverlakebruin on Nov 17, 2009 11:03 PM PST reply actions
Exactly right
I still don’t get why this is so hard for people to understand. It’s really a pretty simple calculation. Not a Pats fan or a Belichick fan by any means, but that decision alone earned him my respect. I’m not even sure if Belichick was aware of the statistical advantage of the move after listening to the post-game comments. At worst, it was a good instinctual move and at best, a strategically calculated move by a bold coach who wasn’t afraid to take the heat if it backfired.
The Woj article really made me cringe today.
If the numbers support it, the numbers support it
And he made the right decision. There’s really no argument against the fact that he had better odds by going for it.
I think it came down to 78 percent change of winning by going for it, versus 70 percent by punting. And that’s not even accounting for the offensive momentum Indy clearly had, and the fact that they’re led by the best possible QB for that situation (at home).
It’s not arrogant just because it’s unorthodox to do what’s right.
Read an article with the following take: that coaches in a similar situation will punt not because it’s the right thing to do, but because it protects the coach. Because punting is the orthodox move, it won’t be seen as a coaching mistake. If Manning drives down the field 70 yards for a TD, that’s the players’ fault, whereas the choice to go for it and fail could be seen as the HC’s fault.
As a result, you’ll need a fairly secure coach like Belichick to make the right move for the team instead of the right move for himself.
Go Bruins!
by Harsha on Nov 18, 2009 7:28 AM PST up reply actions 1 recs
Here's something unorthodox
There’s a high school in Arkansas that NEVER punts. Apparently it works for them.
Disagree
I would have, and I think he should have, punted it away. Sure, there might be some statistical advantage, but in that situation, I’d kick it and tell my defense to win me the game. Champions play solid defense and that move, to me, seemed to say ol’ Billy didn’t trust his defense to stop Peyton.
Look at the situation, at the time he made the decision: it was 4th and 2, on the NE 28, with 2:08 left on the clock. Indy has already burned two timeouts.
A first down conversaion allows NE to run out the clock. There’s a slim possibility that Indy would still get the ball back, but only with, at max, 30 seconds.
Punting backs Indy back to their side of the field. Given the time the play would take, between snap, punt, hang time, return and tackle, the clock would have hit the 2 minute warning. Usually, after a punt, the clock stops while the teams transition from defense to offense. If Indy got the ball back at the 2:01 mark, they’d get to run a play, then get the 2 minute warning stoppage, and would still have their timeout. A punt, though, would put them under the 2 minute mark, so the punt stoppage and the 2 minute warning would have been lumpted together. Net result? Indy is shortchanged one clock stoppage by a long punt.
Punting, in other words, puts Indy on their side of the field, with just under 2 minutes remaining and only one timeout. Yes, it’s Peyton Manning, but these are not the high flying Colts of old. Addai was banged up, the Pats were doubling up Dallas Clark, which leaves Wayne and Austin Collie.
Think I’m full of crap? Consider this: Peyton and the Colts got the ball on the NE 29 yard line with 2 minutes remaining. They scored the winning TD with only 13 seconds remaining. In other words, it took Peyton and the Colts 1:47 seconds to move 29 yards.
Now, if you punt and put force them to drive 65 to 75 yards (assuming a 36 yard to 46 yard punt and return. Considering that NE punter Chris Hanson is averaging 39.6 yards per punt, with a net of 37.4, I’m in the right range. Having to drive 65 yards is a hell of a lot more difficult than driving 29 yards. Seeing how Peyton only had 13 seconds to spare, going only 29 yards, I’d like my chances forcing the Colts to earn it by driving 65+ yards.
To me, it seems that if you don’t convert, it’s a guarantee that Peyton will find a way to get a TD that close, no matter how little amount of time remains. Even if the Colts didn’t score to win it, in that situation, you have to punt and force the opposing team to drive the entire field.
I know Bill has won a lot (although with some questionable ethics), and people here are calling it a “bold” or “brave” move. Bottom line: it was a risky gamble, and in my opinion, a pretty dumb move. Just my two cents. I’m going with CRN on this one: punting is winning. Field position is huge.
I’m not crying for NE: they can bite me. Go Niners (and please, please, please find a real QB for next season).
Seriously
How long the Niners will have to go with a real QB? Druckenmiller, Ken Dorsey, Alex Smith … GAH!
Two #1 picks in next spring's draft
Hopefully, we can get a QB out of that.
Or else, wait around 2-3 years and see if Nate Davis amounts to anything.
UGH!
I'm skeptical with this class
The QBs expected to go in this upcoming draft all strike me as the kinds of guys who are great in college but don’t pan out in the NFL. Let’s take a look:
Tim Tebow – Florida
Colt McCoy – Texas
Sam Bradford – Oklahoma
Jimmy Clausen – Norte Dame
Jake Locker – Washington
Ryan Mallett – Arkansas
Tony Pike – Cincinnati
Jevan Snead – Ole Miss
Jeremiah Masoli – Oregon
Sean Canfield – Oregon State
Zac Robinson – Oklahoma State
Max Hall – BYU
Dan LeFeavour – Central Michigan
Ryan Perrilloux – Jacksonville State
No one on that list gets me very excited. I’ve included some underclassmen, like Mallett, because of the changes to salary pay coming up. Personally, I like Tebow because he’s an upstanding citizen, but a lot of what makes him novel and a great college QB is going to be negated in the NFL: his size, athletic ability, hide his less than stellar accuracy and pass reads. He’s more a product of Meyer’s system than a legit NFL QB. I like guys like LeFeavour and Pike because they find a way to win, make things happen somehow.
Niners might be better off passing on a QB until the later rounds, when they can steal one of the “non-prestige” guys (like LeFeavour, Hall, etc.), for less money and use the high picks to rebuild other holes (like in the secondary, where Clements and Co. have been rather disappointing).
by Bellerophon on Nov 19, 2009 10:20 PM PST up reply actions
Much of that time elapsed
Because they ran the clock out before their last play to make sure NE had no chance to come back. So that’s deceptive.
We've had this discussion before
I hope someone smart will find and link to the earlier discussion. I am firmly of the belief that coaches punt simply because it’s the orthodox move and will surely not attract criticism. I am also firmly of the belief that coaches who go for it are more likely (a) win, and (b) get criticized. I think Belichek’s move was correct. If the receiver had taken one more step downfield or had not bobbled the ball just a little, the move would have paid off.
With about two minutes to go, the odds favor Manning leading his team to a TD whether it’s from his own 30 or the other team’s 30. Getting a first down and keeping the ball makes it much harder for Manning to pass for a TD.
I think it was not only a good decision, but the only decision that makes even a modest amount of sense.
I think Simmons at WWL made some really good points
It’s a neat read on the decision, and one I concur with: given the amount of time left, the fact Indy had only 1 TO, and the amount of field Manning would have to get against the NE defense, in that game, CRN would have been right: punting = winning.
Not that I’m sad because I hate the Pats. Just saying.
It wasn't completely bonkers
I’d have probably punted, but I can definitely see the temptation. As Fox71 noted, you don’t want to give the ball to Manning at any point on the field, even if he’s pinned back to his own 1 yard line. And they didn’t miss the first down by much. So I do think Belichick is getting too much flack here. It was a reasonable call with a good chance of succeeeding.
Reminds me of the USC-Texas Rose Bowl. Chete went for it on 4th and 2 at midfield to seal the game, since Vince Young was killing them, and under no circumstances did he want to give VY the ball back. He took some criticsm, but it was definitely the correct call. Young would have marched down the field from his own 10 or his own 45 regardless, whereas, two more measly yards wins a NC. (Lendale got half a yard, and the refs nearly handed SC a championship by inexplicably giving him another extra yard free of charge) Much as I hate Pete Carroll, I do admire the fact that he consistently goes for the short 4th downs anywhere inside the 45. I’ve always thought was the correct way to play, since about half the punts from that area go for touchbacks or are returned past the 20 anyway. Why sacrifice a good chance to score for a lousy 25 yards of field position?
UCLA's most famous athlete: Jackie Robinson
U$C's most famous athlete: OJ Simpson
'Nuff said
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