Spaulding Roundup: Trojans Open As 13 Point Favorites, Team Stats And Other Beat $C* Notes

by Nestor on Nov 23, 2009 5:46 AM PST in Football Comment 28 comments

We will not link to any kind of online sports betting websites here. However, for those who are wondering the opening line for Saturday's game has the Trojans has 13 points favorites. It will be interesting to see which way the line moves this week. Our side has the momentum heading in with a 3 game win streak but I kind of agree with this line because we are still taking on (at least on paper) the most talented team in the conference (and one of the best in college football). The Bruins might be feeling good about themselves right now. Before they get a little to carried away though, they just need to think back to how they are feeling and had theirs chests all puffed up heading into Stanford game with a record of 3-0.

I expect UCLA to win every time we take on Southern Cal no matter what the circumstances are and who is coaching or quarterbacking the team. That's the lesson I took after watching that Barnes2JJ magic (I will not call it miracle because this kind of stuff seems to happen a lot in this game) in person. If folks want to go back through BN archives they can read up the posts leading up to the games last four years. No matter what the situation were we always expected our team to win. This year more of us have a little confidence because it seems like our defense is getting a little stronger and our offense is showing signs of maturity. For the first time in four years we are going into a game with a team which has a little something on both sides of the ball. In prior years we would have one or the other (we had strong defenses in 08, 07, and 06, while went in with a strong offense in 05). We will see what transpires on the field on Saturday. I think if we can put together the best practice of the entire season and translate that into an amazing effort of smart football, we are going to have a great shot.

Here are the numbers at quick glance between the two teams:

NCAA Stats	UCLA	U$C*
Offense Pts Scored	22.6	27.5
Defense Pts Allowed	20.6	21.7
Total Offense Yds PG	341	400
Rush Yds/G	115	181
Pass Yds/G	226	219
Rush Yds Allowed/G	146	136
Pass Yds Allowed/G	193	212
Turover Margin	0.73	-0.31

So what's the deal? Let's talk some more about it with other football notes after the jump.

I think the biggest worry I have heading into Saturday is how the heck will our defense contain Allen Bradford and Joe McKnight. All season our defense has taken a while to get it going in every game. We saw just last weekend how our defensive front 7 made the ASU RB look like an All Pac-10 back in the early going before settling down and making adjustments. I am not sure if we are going to have that luxury aganst Bradford and especially Knight.

I am already having nightmares thinking about McKnight coming around that edge and exploding through our LBs and DBs. CRN is saying that UCLA will try to take a balanced approach in facing U$C*'s defense (despite Heisman Barkley's recent slump):

USC freshman quarterback Matt Barkley's recent struggles — he had thrown three interceptions in the Trojans' loss to Stanford — will not change UCLA's game plan, Neuheisel said.

The Bruins will not become blitz-happy, but attempt to maintain a balanced attack.

"I don't think you can be ever just one thing," Neuheisel said. "You have to be diversified and give different looks. Barkley is obviously a huge talent, but they can't manufacture more experience for them. We can't give them one look that allows them to be comfortable."

That sounds right. However, I'd like to see our defense bring the pressure early from different directions and mix up our looks. Obviously everyone is excited about Ayers lining up at the end deviating from his base 4-3 look he has been using most of the season. I also liked having Brian Price coming off the edge last weekend (which led to the fumble recover for TD late in the first half). I think against this Trojan offense we will have to do some of the same things to rattle the freshman QB. What we cannot afford do is what we did against Cal when we let Kevin Riley getting in rhythm early. If we let Barkely get in same kind of rhythm early on like we allowed Riley to get in, it might be a long night at the Mosoleum.

Keep an eye out on the injury report for the Trojans this week. Damien Williams has been nursing an ankle injury. He didn't play against Stanford and per Gary Klein of the LAT he is scheduled to do some "running" today. He is obviously a huge weapon for them adding more balance to the explosive threats out of the backfield.

There wasn't much news coming out of Spauling yesterday. Sounds like the coaches (very prudently) are keeping a very low profile. So the reporters were resorted to asking boring questions about whether Brehaut is going to see any more action and latest of Hester's injury status. If you care about reading them you can check out the beat reports here and here. I am honestly not all that worried about Brehaut. His situation will work out. I know his red shirt season got burned this year. I am honestly not all that worried about it and we have another great QB recruit coming in next year. Given how CRN has handle situations such as Hasiak, kept Craft completely committed to the program, I have no doubt he and Chow will sit down with Brehaut to figure out the best course for his development (which might include the option of redshirting his sophomore or junior season).

Going back to Kevin Prince, I am excited for him on Saturday. I think Saturday presents a big opportunity for him. While he has gained some obvious confidence in his throws downfield, I think he has also added another dimension to his game in terms of sharpening his pocket presence. His decisions in terms of when to throw away the ball or when to take off for a scramble has been great. That 68 yard run against Washington State didn't look like all that much of an aberration given how he picked two huge first downs with his feet against a defense like ASU. It will be fun to see what kind of package Chow schemes up for him on Saturday.

With that, I'd love to hear your early thoughts on Saturday in terms of game planning and strategery. What do you think we should be looking for? Let's use this thread to get that discussion going this Monday. Of course if you have detailed thought you want to throw up put them in FanPost. It is going to be a loooooong week to wait for this kickoff. Might as well enjoy it.

GO BRUINS.

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As it is for every game

i think the big key this week is going to be the turnover battle. CRN and NC have stressed it every week, and the numbers above show how much better we’ve been at taking care of the ball and forcing TO’s than SC has been. I think if we win the TO battle we’ll have a great shot on Saturday.

Our offense has been improving, but we all know our best playmakers are on the defensive side of the ball. I’m not talking about our best – although most of those are on the defensive side as well – but rather the guys we can count on to make a big play. Between Ayers, ATV, Rahim and BP, our D is loaded with guys that are a big play or a turnover waiting to happen. I wouldn’t be surprised in the least to see, if not a defensive score, a turnover leading directly to a score via a very short drive. If that can happen, i think that tilts the game in our favor.

Has there ever been a player better than Detlef Schrempf?

by bucknellbruin on Nov 23, 2009 6:42 AM PST reply actions

Just like Nestor said...

Our defense has to set the tempo early and actually make adjustments in the 1st quarter. The ASU RB was able to run all over our defense in the first half, especially on the first drive. That drive was only saved because of ATV’s pick 6. If Nance was able to run like that, imagine how well McKnight could potentially run. Also, if our defense puts pressure on Barkley (just like the Bruin D put pressure on Booty in ’06) then he will be uncomfortable and more likely to make mistakes.

by bruinfan94 on Nov 23, 2009 8:14 AM PST reply actions

The numbers look pretty even

I expected more of a “gap.” As for our defense, I would think given Barkley’s recent struggles it would make the most sense to key on the run game and force Barkley to beat you with the passing game. Then again, I’m not a D1 Coach, I might be stepping into a trap.

Forget all the Xs and Os this game is going to come down to Who Plays with more Fire. I think we have them on this one. As mentioned earlier in another thread, we lose nothing by losing, the whole country thinks we will. USC is the one with the pressure to win at home one more time before Arizona comes into town and kicks them one more time. They have to win while we want to win. X factor: UCLA

PS I’m seriously considering going to the game. I would have to drive directly there after work. It would be irresponsible at this time for me, but then again flying out to Tennessee wasn’t exactly prudent, either.

A coach is someone who can give correction without causing resentment. John Wooden

by MexiBruin on Nov 23, 2009 9:45 AM PST reply actions

considering?

Not trying to attack you personally, but I’m surprised a long-time BN reader would have to consider going to the U$C* game. I’d do darn near anything to go, other than I’m 6 or 7 states away (no longer in AZ) and completely broke. I’d find enough stuff to sell to get a ticket, if I was close enough.

by AZBruin on Nov 23, 2009 10:32 AM PST up reply actions

Well...

Look what happened when you went to TN!!! Get out there, Mexi!

GO BRUINS!!!

"The entire world that bleeds blue and gold ... they have been dying for this." - Coach Rick Neuheisel

by uclafan11 on Nov 23, 2009 10:36 AM PST up reply actions

Defense

Exactamundo! We can not afford to slowly adjust to usc’s offense. I have been very critical if Bullough, but the defense seems to have improved over the last few games. And I like the changes he’s put in (Ayers at end and BP charging from edge). But, he’s got to hVe a plan to contain the run from the first play. Can not afford not to do so.

by hongerelli on Nov 23, 2009 10:15 AM PST via mobile reply actions

We can't let $C think they're the better team

The half time score is critical. I’m thinking a 10-10 score. From there, we need to pounce. we need to get all over Barkley and force him into making mistakes. I think we can settle the run down (if Bradford and co. get off for some 1st half yards) in the run dept. We need to make Barkley UNCOMFORTABLE.

I think we are more than capable of taking control in the 2nd half. We nee to get into their mind and make them believe that we’re for real. we need to have all the confidence and make them think “Here we go again!”.

This UCLA team is not quitting. We almost came back against Oregon State, but I don’t think we’ll need to do that. I think we can keep it a low scoring affair and then pounce in the 2nd half. Man I am JACKED for Saturday!!

by TheStick on Nov 23, 2009 10:18 AM PST reply actions

Jacked Up Here In Minnesota, Too

The 13-point spread seems a little high to me. I was thinking more in terms of 8-10 points but we’ll see how it fluctuates as the week progresses.

Without question our defense cannot afford a slow start. The one thing that would really worry me is if they get a big play right off the get-go and score early on us. Ideally, I’d like to see us get some pressure on Barkley early; make him rush a few passes, hit him around a bit, let him know we’re there all night. Will be interesting to see what schemes Bulluogh has planned.

An often overlooked aspect is the kicking game and field position. We simply have to keeped them pinned back at the 20 or deeper every time we can. We give them too many short fields to work with we could get burned big-time.

Los Angeles Rams and the UCLA Bruins!!!!!

by Minnesota Bruinfan on Nov 23, 2009 10:28 AM PST reply actions

13 points is fine with me

I expect to win this game every year, but the last time we were given a realistic shot to compete in this series by outsiders was in 2006, and that didn’t end too well. Coupled with the fact that USC is coming off a bye, I can understand why the line is what it is.

Now it’s up to our Bruins to go out there and prove who the better team is.

by PEDbruin on Nov 23, 2009 11:22 AM PST up reply actions

I think you're thinking of 2005

We won in 2006. ;)

by CAJason80 on Nov 23, 2009 11:52 AM PST up reply actions

We were 22 point dogs in 2005

Vegas was not buying the Karl Koolaid

by bluebland on Nov 23, 2009 11:57 AM PST up reply actions

This, actually, must be the smallest spread since 2001

by bluebland on Nov 23, 2009 11:58 AM PST up reply actions

Hmm

I think we might have been around 12.5 dogs in 2006. Someone might want to double check that.

by Nestor on Nov 23, 2009 12:03 PM PST up reply actions

I like it!

The bigger the spread, the better it works for us. Let it be 20. Hopefully they will consider this an “easy” win.Based on the way teams are playing, it is high, 6-8 points tops.

by Bruin'96 on Nov 23, 2009 12:50 PM PST up reply actions

13 points seems a little high

I agree with Minnesota above. I was thinking 10 points or so.

This game is a real mystery to me. Obviously, we are playing well and they are not. It looks like we are set up to upset them. But history has taught us that pretty much nothing goes to plan in this particular game.

I think our defense is key. I think our offense can get us some points but I think our defense can get us points too, a la ASU. If our defense steps up, we will win.

And wouldn’t it be something if Price outplays Barkley (yet again)? What will Petey and the LAT have to say about that? Rhetorical questions again, folks.

by Barnes2JJ on Nov 23, 2009 11:00 AM PST reply actions

I'll be home for Thanksgiving break

and I don’t have FSN West. Does anyone know a place where I can watch the game in the Bay Area? I’m under 21 FYI.

by Centric on Nov 23, 2009 12:01 PM PST reply actions

Gamewatching with other Bruins

There’s a Bay Area Bruins event at The Sports Edition Bar and Grill at The Oakland Airport Hilton Hotel. There’s a group on Facebook (and probably info on the Alumni Association site) where you can get full details.

by JoeBruin9900 on Nov 23, 2009 12:38 PM PST up reply actions

What! Only 13 points?

With all their 6-star pre-madonnas shouldn’t they be favored by 40?

by bru79 on Nov 23, 2009 1:02 PM PST reply actions

That Las Vegas line may change a bit,

but the line is designed to get action from both sides. In other words, SC fans are supposed to be thinking that they can easily give 13 and win, while Bruin supporters are supposed to think that they have a great bet with 13 points. Which, I might add, is exactly what I’m thinking. Fortunately for me, Mrs. R.S. long ago made clear what she thinks about betting good money on anything, so the line matters not in this household. I think we are definitely competitive in this game. I see two keys: 1.) The D must control point production and time of possession. That means a lot of three and outs for that other school. And I believe we can do it, if we play our best game, using both heads and hearts. 2.) We have to establish a running game, so that our attack is balanced. Honestly, if we can’t run, our chances our poor. And we can do this, too, because we are not facing a great D line. That has been demostrated. I always think we are going to win, but this time, I can actually see how we can do it. No miracles required.

by ReineSeite on Nov 23, 2009 1:27 PM PST reply actions

Are there any SC fans who seriously would bet that line at this point?

Given what I’ve seen out of SC the past several weeks, I certainly wouldn’t be banking on giving 13 and laying down cash. I’m really interested to see what happens to the line – I’m thinking it might get all the way down to 7 or 8 before the end of the week.

by CAJason80 on Nov 23, 2009 3:10 PM PST up reply actions

The SC fan who sits next to me wants to take UCLA and 13,

but won’t even consider taking SC and giving the 13.

by bru79 on Nov 24, 2009 9:50 AM PST up reply actions

I think big plays are our best chance

We don’t have a consistent running game, and we don’t have a dominant defense. Our defense is especially vulnerable against the run, which is SC’s strength right now. I imagine they’re scheming a seriously run-heavy attack.

The way to win a game like this is to make a few huge plays when they least expect it on offense, and then hope the D makes some key turnovers. We have no chance of winning an ordinary ball-control game. I hope we fix the communication issues in the Wildcat, because I think that formation will offer us our best rushing chances and possibly a money trick play. But not if we keep getting false starts.

by bluebland on Nov 23, 2009 5:12 PM PST up reply actions