Pregame Guesses: Southern Cal
by Achilles on Nov 28, 2009 3:55 AM PST
in Football
72 comments
3:25 am.
Game day -- fifteen and half hours to kick-off, give or take a couple of Bud Light commercials.
3:25 am and it just totally hit me out of the blue that I didn't write a guesses post for this week's game -- due yesterday. In my defense, I haven't been on the computer -- no email, no blogs, no message boards, nothing -- since I left the office Wednesday afternoon. It's a holiday weekend, you know, and I've been doing the family thing.
I didn't even know we lost to Butler in hoopa until I just woke up in the easy chair, brushed some cabernet-induced cobwebs out of my eyes and started to write this post.
So, what is there to say about the USC game at 3:30 am?
I guess the straight up, I'm-too-tired-to-be-anything-but-honest truth is that I'm optimistic about the game, but afraid of my own optimism. What I mean is, I've been around long enough to have seen just about every scenario pre-rivalry game, but still I feel I'm in unchartered waters here. Let's put it this way:
For the first time in a long time, USC seems vulnerable, beatable at 3:33 am game day. As opposed to the last seven or eight years when they appeared invincible at 3:34 am on game day, this year they seem beatable. So, my emotions are not "Hey, it's a rivalry game, throw out the records and anything can happen" and then I sat back and prayed for a 13-9 miracle (but almost every time ended up with something closer to 27-0 in favor of the bad guys.) No, this year my feelings are more like "Last time I saw USC they were getting their doors blown out by Stanford in the Coliseum and we've been playing much better and anyway when was the last time we went into the USC on a three game winning streak and they were coming off a blow out loss at home." In fact, if they weren't "USC" someone would be noting that we're the hot team on a winning streak while they've lost two of their last three.
All that said -- 3:39 -- and I have every reason to be optimistic. We're the hot team. But just typing that, makes me feeling like I might be jinxing us. Like I'm forgetting the most important part of the sentence.
We're the hot team -- but they're still USC and they still have the better record and the second I start thinking we're going to win, something disastrous is going to happen.
See? See what happens when a prior coach (heck, prior coaches) and an apathetic administration allow the program to fall to mediocrity or worse. You start to doubt even the facts that tell you that this is a very winnable game and you fear even believing that the Bruins straight up are the team with momentum and that a UCLA win really wouldn't be much of an upset. Like I kid that's been beaten too many time by his last foster father, it's hard to trust the new guy, even though he seems really nice.
Okay, 3:44 am and I'm not too coherent. Too many carbs, too much red wine and Japanese beer coursing through my bloodstream for me to be making too much sense.
The simple point I'm struggling to make is that if this wasn't a rivalry game, if they weren't a team that has dominated the past seven or eight years, if we weren't the program that has struggled the last seven eight years or whatever then no one would have a hard time being optimistic about tonight's game. Throw out the records it's a rivalry game? -- No way -- in fact, just take a look at the records and you'll see all you need to know that this is a close game going in that could be won by either team.
Look, it's late/early. I'm going to finish this off and try and get some rest. I'm just saying that this year Bruin fans need no false bravado to convince themselves they can win. There is nothing false about it:: we can win.
Fifteen hours to kick off -- let's do it already.
Here are the Pregame Guesses for USC (and a giant "My Bad" for forgetting to do this earlier:
- Haven't heard much this year about the Norm Chow-Pete Carroll rivalry within a rivalry. But it's till the key match-up going in. With that in mind, who will score first in the USC-UCLA game?
- I think one key to the game will be whether or not UCLA can move the ball on the ground. That's how Stanford routed USC and it's important that the offense not rely completely on the passing game. True or false, the Bruins will rush for more than 100 yards tonight?
- There's an old saying in football: Pay attention to the kicking game, because it's there that the breaks are made. UCLA's most consistent player all year has been Kai Forbath. In a close game, he could prove crucial. How many field goals will Kai kick tonight against the Trojans?
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Forbath, Yes, Four
Glass half-empty says we lose by 10. Heart tells me we win by 14.
Kareem Kelly’s friggin foot was out of bounds!
just a quick UCLA note...
we are 9 and 9 v. the tOJans over the past 18 years…we won 8 in a row from ‘91-’98, and sadly to say they have won 9 out of 10 from ’99 to ’08…9-9…
by bruincheerleader on Nov 28, 2009 6:09 AM PST reply actions
Let's Go Bruins!!!
Whoever has the ball 1st will score 1st. We will have over 100 yards rushing. And Kai will kick fewer field goals than normal because he will be busy kicking extra points today. Here’s to KPs adversity he has battled thru since the start of the season… now it’s Barkley’s turn. This game seems like it could be a repeat of 2006 when the Bruins D got inside Booty’s head. Barkley could be in for a looooong day, and now with Ayers coming off the edge too?!?!?!
since u asked.. make. Im a little superstitious sometimes.
by AllIHadz240s on Nov 28, 2009 6:22 AM PST up reply actions
UCLA, True, 2
UCLA 20
U$C 14
The pendulum is swinging back our way. The 2010’s will be ours. Let’s get things started a year early. See you at the Maus!
Louisiana born, California grown - bleed Blue and Gold, with a healthy dose of Purple mixed in.
by ucla84 on Nov 28, 2009 6:23 AM PST reply actions
U$C, True, 2
and weather is not a factor. Both teams have to play in the conditions and both teams have the same weather acclimation. Saying WSU has an advantage in the snow since they are used to it is one thing, but saying that a team from southern california will fare any better than another from only a few miles away is reaching. Unless there is such wind and rain that it takes away passing and reliable field goals (is that even possible in LA?), it should not be an issue.
Missed the point
Weather canbe a factor if one team is dependent on passing versus running or if one team is more dependent on speed, for example.
Obviously, weather is not a factor for two “Southern California” teams who play a few miles from one another. That wasn’t the point.
U$C, False, 3
i think it will be a defensive battle early with some excitement at the end, but overall a low scoring affair. Bruins on top!
GO BRUINS!!! CHEER LIKE CHAMPIONS!!!
USC, True, 3
Just found out last night that the FSN affiliate up here in the Twin Cities, in their infinite wisdom, will be showing goofy Gopher hockey when our game comes on. We will, however, get the replay at 11 P.M. (Central time). Man, I am PISSED.
Los Angeles Rams and the UCLA Bruins!!!!!
by Minnesota Bruinfan on Nov 28, 2009 7:12 AM PST reply actions
Minnesota Bruinfan
I’m sure there must be a online feed, that’s how I watched last night’s ben ball game. It’s not big screen, but it’s live.
Bruins, True, 2
Let’s go, Bruins!
by Westwood is the best wood on Nov 28, 2009 7:46 AM PST via mobile reply actions
Bruins, true, 4
19 -14 BRUINS WIN!!!
by TheStick on Nov 28, 2009 7:51 AM PST via mobile reply actions
UCLA, False, 2
We have a golden opportunity to turn this rivalry back in our favor. No 13-9 flukes tonight. Just a straight up ass kicking. And then we need to go out and kick their asses in recruiting.
It’s starts tonight.
GO BRUINS!
formerly godblesstyus95
$C, true, 3
first thought on scoring first is whoever gets the ball first, as both teams will be jacked up, but I know that doesn’t count
A little inspiration...
My 13 year old just found this video and I thought it shows how we are feeling about the game tonight! SCREW the trojans!
http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/thelife/news/story?page=goingviral/100709
oops, sorry that didn't work!
try this: http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/thelife/news/story?page=goingviral/100709 make sure the last six digits are on the browser
Defense Wins Championship Games
UCLA’s is the better D. Price, Bosworth bros, Ayers, ATV. Both offenses are not great, so I see a low scoring game. Field goals will be vital, and we have the edge there. Ball security is the bogeyman here. If that is a problem, we will lose. In close games, that is a killer. I think we will have at least one pick. Ayers will be hard on a young QB. He will be thinking about him when he tosses. We held Stanford to much fewer points and beat UW. If Bosworth rushes him and gets him out of the pocket, he will make mistakes. We don’t do well on screens, which they will counter with. My guess is Bruins win by a FG. 13-10 or 10-7
U$C, yes, 3
Don’t worry, A, I still don’t have the results from last week posted. Doing the family thing myself…
$c, YES, 4
(1) Bullough will take one whole freaking quarter to adjust to $C’s running game, but after that, it’s lights out for the Poodle Pete’s stable.
(2) Yes, and it’ll be on sweep plays designed to match our speed against theirs. Pom-Pom will be gearing up for Wildcat up the middle, but we’ll be tiring their guys out on the ends.
(3) Weather will be a factor — it’’s cold, and $C hasn’t had to play in cool weather in a LONG while. They played Stanford in broad afternoon daylight, and our gusys played in the bleak snowy nowhere at WSU later that same day.
33-21. It’s the Battle for the City of Angels, and angels live where the colors are all blue and gold.
If you die, and the first thing you see is the color red, you know you’re in the wrong spot.
GO BRUINS!!!
M
"In this program your passion bucket must be full to play SC." -- CRN, to Dan Patrick, 1/2008
UCLA, false, 3
GO BRUINS!!!!!!!!!
greg in denver - UCLA guy for life
by gbruin on Nov 28, 2009 10:20 AM PST via mobile reply actions
UCLA, True, 3
"The entire world that bleeds blue and gold ... they have been dying for this." - Coach Rick Neuheisel
UCLA, True, 3
seems like a pretty common guess, too. 100 shouldn’t be hard as a team. 100 for any one player would be a more difficult guess.
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