Shaking Up The Core: Thoughts On Changing Up UCLA Basketball's Starting Lineup/Rotation
by Nestor on Dec 14, 2009 8:06 AM PST
in Basketball
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PrintSo here I go.
I have seen 4 regular season games this year. 5 if I count the second exhibition game against Humboldt State, which I saw via the pathetic online feed from the official site. Based on what I have seen so far here is the starting lineup that seems to make sense:
I think for the short term Howland needs to make two critical moves:
- Bench Dragovic for rest of the year (duh) limiting him not much more than 10-12 mins per game
- Bench Anderson and limit his mins to not more than 15 mins per game.
More on these two points and other thoughts on how Howland needs to shake up the current core of starting rotation after the jump.
Let's start with the obvious problem, which is the crazy amount of minutes Howland keeps wasting on Dragovic. Nikola Dragovic might be the most startling enigma during Coach Ben Howland's 7 years in Westwood. It simply doesn't make any sense how Howland continues to give this kid special treatment despite his total failure (and no I couldn't care less about his meaningless rebounding statistics) on the court. Time after time we have seen Howland using a quick hook whenever dealing with an underclassmen. We have seen him inserting and then pulling a freshmen or sophomore for making simple defensive mistakes or turning the ball over on the offensive side. Yet, with Dragovic (and in some cases with Josh Shipp from last season), we have seen Howland giving special treatment to an upperclassmen, who clearly doesn't play up to the standards of a Ben Ball warrior on the court (I will not even touch Dragovic's off court issues).
The only explanation I can think behind Howland giving Dragovic mins is that he is hoping that he somehow regains his shooting touch like he did to a certain extent against Pac-10 teams last year. However, numbers don't lie. He is shooting less than 20 percent from the 3 point line this season. Last year, after he got hot during the Pac-10 games, he still shot less than 39 percent from the 3 point line. He is an atrocious defender and he has never shown anything that indicates that he has a natural feel for the game. Yet, he continues to get the mins.
At this point, after what he did against Mississippi State, Howland will send wrong message if he starts Dragovic tomorrow. To me it's a no brainer that Howland takes Dragovic out of the lineup. Now the guy I would start would be James Keefe and here is my explanation for it. I think Brandon Lane has more upside than Keefe. However, I would at least give Keefe the start, because Keefe despite being tentative has a better feel for the game than Dragovic. I think it might make sense to start him and then bring in Lane off the bench. Keefe is better than Dragovic when it comes to shot selection (he has better FG%) and he understands Howland's offense and defense much better than Dragovic. Keefe's problem has been on the FT line and just being too tentetive (which goes back to Howland having a quick hook for all the other players except for some one like Dragovic).
At least with Shipp, I understood a little why Howland let him get away with defensive relapses. Josh Shipp had courage and also a knack for making big shots when it mattered. He was fearless and I thought was a game. Dragovic? Well, I think Bellerophon was off the mark, when he called Dragovic a "scrub" for his effort (or lack there of) on the court. He has shown as much as guys like Ryan Walcott and Travis Reed, to merit starting mins on the court, which is nothing.
Moving on to the point guard situation. This one is obvious. Here is bruinponcho:
The biggest problem is that his lineup and rotations make no sense. As soon as I saw JA in the starting lineup with MR at small forward, I knew this was a loss. JA is not a starting point guard, period. MR is not a small forward. We have lots of big guys and only three guards, go with a bigger lineup.
ML and MR should each be playing 30 minutes a game with JA playing 10 minutes backing up ML and MM playing 10 minutes backing up MR. JA and ML should never be on the floor at the same time. Ever. Their games are too similar in that there only offense is driving and neither can shoot. Used appropriately and in conjunction with a shooter like MR, this can be effective. But you cant have both JA and ML out there together when JA’s game is just an inferior version of ML.
And Meriones called for this, well back in April:
Backcourt size — Can anyone remember when we started a both-6-5 backcourt? Didn’t think so. Malcolm’s hustle and length and Roll’s experience in CBH’s schemes should do wonders to negate any possible lack of waterbug quickness. Worse comes to worst, we bring in JA to check smaller guards and fight pace with pace, but at least we START with the size advantage, for a change.
Note Meriones did have Dragovic in the starting lineup but being the wiseman that he added this:
Caveat: this would hinge ENTIRELY on whether Drago can put in a full summer of workouts and improve his defensive rotations.
Uh, I think from what we have seen this year we don't have to discuss Drago's defensive rotations any further.
I have to say I was dumbfounded that Howland even started Anderson last game after seeing how much more effective and energetic we were against Kansas, when Lee got the start. It doesn't make any sense how this kid continues to get more than 20 mins per game, given he cannot shot, cannot drive, cannot make FTs (!!!), and most importantly cannot defend. Jerime might be working hard. However, given what we have seen from the court, we are not seeing the results. I think it is time for Howland to dramatically reduce his mins, so that Anderson can reflect on how he can be more efficient, smart in practice and focus on how he can improve game by game.
Going back to our rotation, Honeycutt needs to start next game. After watching two games, it seems like he probably has the most upside as the natural scorer in this team. He is also a rebounder (8 in last game, 6 against Kansas). I think it is time for Howland to ride Honeycutt and Nelson, just like he rode on the freshmen talents of JF and AA in their first two years of Westwood.
I get that Howland is trying to win every game. However, from what we have seen its clear that the current core which includes major mins for Dragovic and Anderson, is not the winning formula. It is time for Howland to shake up his current core. He needs to do that by starting Lee at the 1, user Moser's athleticism to back up the 2-3 spot behind Roll and Honeycutt, take out Dragovic from the lineup at the expense of increased mins for Lane and some Keefe. I have to say I have also been impressed with the effort Morgan has given in recent weeks. I think he has clearly earned some backup mins at the 5. I am hoping he can turn up the intensity even few more notches and he might be able to salvage his career in Westwood, just like Ryan Hollins did before he was done in Westwood.
Lastly, people who are feeling uncomfortable with the criticism of Coach Ben Howland on BN needs to chill out. None of us are even going anywhere close to calling for Howland to step aside. There is no discussion of "coaching candidates" that are actually happening on other UCLA online communities. All we are doing is offering our frank thoughts and analysis on what we see wrong with our program. We have been in Howland's corner all this time. We will give him all the benefits of doubt. However, don't expect us to stay quiet and be blind homers when we see something is wrong.
All we are doing is offering our analysis and thoughts. So with that said the thoughts above are my impressions on what Coach Howland needs to do address the current concerns with our hoops program. While the measures suggested are steps to address the short term concerns, I believe they can also help to steady the program, paying dividends for the long term, bringing back where Howland took us in recent history. We can get there again and it will require Coach Howland to adjust, adapt, recalibrate, just like Coach John Wooden did during his time in Westwood.
GO BRUINS.
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Anderson and Drago
There is no point having both on the court at the same time. It’s essentially 5 on 3 when that happens. Having one anemic offensive and defensive player on the court is bad enough. Having two on the court is atrocious. And that’s the sight that sickens me. I agree that we should start playing the underclassmen a lot more minutes this season. We know what to expect from our upperclassmen.
I like the starting lineup you proposed. Depending on how he develops, I would like to see JMM start more at C with RN coming off the bench at either PF or C. I favor having a bigger lineup on the court playing some physical D (not asking too much). We need to get back to that same bruising style of defense we had when LMR and AA2 battled in the post.
In terms of Anderson, he should be shooting 100 free throws everyday. I said before that a 50% FT percentage for a PG is reprehensible. He also needs to toughen up both mentally and physically. I mean play some pickup games at the playgrounds or Men’s Gym or something. As Yoda said, “I sense great fear in you.” JA has been playing very hesitant with no confidence. He needs to be fearless especially once Pac-10 play starts. Don’t know any other way to put it.
Agree with RN comment.... what about this.?
Since Nelson is not a center why not just have him and Keefe at the 4 and Morgan and Stover at the 5. Consistent rotation between the two positions and more appropriate given their skills and size. I know everyone will think I am crazy but Stover cannot be any worse that what we currently have out there. Maybe he will develop and learn on the job. I say it is worth a shot. Really, what do we have to lose?
I agree with you, misfit15. Right on the mark!
by LouisianaBruins on Dec 14, 2009 10:21 AM PST up reply actions
Interesting
I’ve seen Stover play a bit in high school and I think he has some big upside, but not so much that they want burn his redshirt. I think you let JMM take up the minutes inside and like you said, spell him with RN.
A couple of thoughts
First, thanks N for this thoughtful post. I think threads like this about things that can actually change are much better than complaining about recruiting which there is no way to change at this moment in time. I don’t hold CBH accountable for recruits not living up to their hype, but I do hold him accountable for questionable in-game coaching decisions with his lineup being my biggest criticism.
Now with regards to your proposed lineup, I pretty much agree. Obviously we all know hat the starting backcourt should be. TH has more than proven himself in the two games that he has played showing excellent rotation/help defense. It is also critical to have TH in with RN to add more size and rebounding. I still am not totally sold on RN as a starting center. He is really 6’7" tops. I laugh in pregame warmups when the bigs are shooting (while the smalls stretch) and our starting center is the smallest guy on the court. Against inferior competition RN can be ok, but against any team with height/length inside, RN is always going to struggle. JMM seems to be getting better with each minute that he gets to play and I would like to see him get more minutes. Of course, if CBH is going to stick with his man-to-man instead of trying a zone (again, an in-game coaching failure), it will always be tough for JMM to stay on the court long enough on defense to be effective on offense.
Now the elephant in the room: ND. I have two reasons, one basketball and one personal, why CBH has stuck with ND. The basketball reason is that CBH knows that this team has no outside shooting. Thus, his best hope for finding that shooting is for ND to regain his old form. Unfortunately, it has taken him a long time to find it. However, I think CBH feels a bit of personal responsibility for ND. He recruited ND as an 18 year old Serbian kid and convinced him to not play professional ball in Europe (which probably would have helped him get to the NBA with the added practice time, familiarity, and none constant scrutiny that he gets playing at UCLA). I cant imagine doing what ND did as an 18 year old, moving half way across the world, away from his family, and then not even getting to play for the first half of your season because of a bogus NCAA rule. This doesn’t excuse his off the court issues, but deep down I think CBH feels responsible for ND and is why he cuts him more slack than other players.
I have to stick up for B re. his recruiting post
I think the post he put was much needed. It was jarring but it sparked a passionate discussion which I think is healthy. His thoughts also forced us to face reality on the recruiting scene from last few years. I appreciated it.
Your last para. on ND is intriguing. I have to think that out a bit before offering a quick fire response.
Didn't mean to take a shot at B
He had a very thoughtful post. My problem with worrying about recruiting is it just isn’t the time for it yet. Its still relatively early in this season, so its too soon to judge these freshman and even really the sophomores. Further, there is nothing that can be done about recruiting right now that will have any effect on the program. Its a fun topic to debate, but it just deals in theoretical and emotional responses with no clear answer whereas the current lineup and minute allocation is something that we have facts and performance on which to come to a conclusion. I guess my preference for topic just shows how much of a right brain thinker I am.
As for ND, you are right, he is enigma. He doesn’t fit in with the normal ben ball warriors. He is the only European that we have had at UCLA as far back as I can remember. He was one star recruit who became valuable last year, but it was probably unrealistic of anyone to ever expect him to be a leader of this team. There really is no easy way to sum him up.
Yeah, it is all good
I didn’t think you were taking a shot at him. Since you brought it up I thought it’d be a good opportunity to make that point about his post. :-)
Anyway, going to be very interesting what happens next game. I think Saturday’s loss was something different because it happened in front of Coach.
Speaking of recruiting
Not to rub salt in the wound, but here is Kevin Durant’s blog today
Don’t tell Russell this, but I always wanted to go to UCLA. I don’t know why. I always wanted to go to UCLA. That was a dream of mine. And once I started to get recruited, I was like, I hope UCLA calls. That’s where I wanted to go. But it didn’t turn out that way because they didn’t think I’d go all the way to the West Coast. But that’s the school I always liked. I liked watching them. I liked their colors. That kind of drew me to them as well. I was a big UCLA fan – the O’Bannons, Baron Davis, Earl Watson; I was a big Earl Watson fan, believe it or not.
Oy.
by bruinponcho on Dec 14, 2009 9:50 AM PST up reply actions 2 recs
Is there any doubt...
…that a team of DC, AA, LRMAM, Durant, and LMR doesn’t beat Florida and win CBH his championship in only his third season. I really hope that CBH honestly believed that Durant wouldn’t come out here and not that Durant didn’t fit into his system.
Done
The worst news of the day is now fanposted so that it may torment BN on the frontpage sidebar for the rest of the week. lol.
by bruinponcho on Dec 14, 2009 10:48 AM PST up reply actions
LOL
When I first read this, I had to laugh. It really is pretty funny. After which, I ran for the Prozac.
by LongtimeBru on Dec 14, 2009 12:22 PM PST up reply actions
Oh yeah
remember when Howland kept Kevin Love on the bench for most of his freshman season? Oh wait…
Oh UCLA you sweet bitch, you've BRUINed me for anything else.
Earl Watson
Love Earl Watson. I really enjoyed watching him play during the dark Lavin days.
Ugh
That’s not salt in the wound. That’s sticking the knife in and twisting. I’m glad we’re starting to recruit more nationally now so that at least we won’t be completely ignoring talents like Durant. Now, recruiting and closing the deal are different things, but you can’t do the latter without doing the former.
academics?
Kid transferred prior to his senior season in high school, with rumblings about his academics… so let’s not get too worked up…
“they didn’t think I’d go all the way to the West Coast” – really? Exactly who would have told him that? Seems unlikely.
by britishbruin on Dec 14, 2009 12:35 PM PST up reply actions
No offense taken, but to clarify...
…my post doesn’t pass any judgment on the freshman. Rather it focuses on our sophomores and up.
I think threads like this about things that can actually change are much better than complaining about recruiting which there is no way to change at this moment in time. I don’t hold CBH accountable for recruits not living up to their hype, but I do hold him accountable for questionable in-game coaching decisions with his lineup being my biggest criticism.
We both agree that CBH needs to be held accountable. I agree that his in-game coaching decisions are questionable and his line-up baffles me. That being said, I’m willing to go one step further: yes, he’s not responsible for these kids being flops, but the line-up we both complain of, is the line-up he built with his recruits.
He’s called on to evaluate talent and bring in quality players to the program. I think the fact ND, JK, etc. are here is something worthy of questioning. I understand nothing can be done about those guys now, but I think addressing the problem is something that needs to be done. I think CBH needs to take a long, hard look at his recruiting since 2006 and figure out what he can do to stock his roster with players to avoid meltdown seasons like this.
Interesting take
I agree that CBH has been sticking with ND because of the need for another shooter on the floor. IMO, the biggest reason why the team has been so bad this season is the inability to shoot. Besides Roll, there are no outside threats. Consequently, teams can clog the middle and concentrate on Roll. Until somebody starts making jumpshots, our offense will continue to look horrible, which is why ND is important. He at least showed the ability to make those shots in the past.
I think your point re: ND and CBH’s personal relationship is insightful. Looking back, CBH has always pushed ND, but has also let ND’s defensive weakness slide as well.
by AllHailMightyBruins on Dec 14, 2009 10:15 AM PST up reply actions
NESTOR...from your mouth, to CBH's ears!...
is CBH maybe too stubborn to listen to any outside advice?…
by bruincheerleader on Dec 14, 2009 8:59 AM PST reply actions
In-Game Changes
Great post about the lineup based on good insight and helpful thoughts around BN the past few weeks. The question in my mind is when if ever will we see any changes. We have seen rumblings like this for a few weeks, but the lineups seem to be very heavy on the upperclassmen who do not seem to be shouldering the proper load (MR excluded).
I hope we see some substantive changes, but it is frustrating to watch the minutes continue to be chewed up by ineffective players when there are alternatives riding the pine.
If CBH does not make changes, then is he just being stubborn and wrong or does he see or know something that we do not? He is an expert coach and has devoted his life to basketball unlike most of us (not meant as a knock on any one here though, just context), but self-analysis is much harder than external analysis. We have the benefit of an outside point of view. I really hope that CBH can channel some of these thoughts and great discussions. Use them and incorporate them in his thought process and given his wealth of experience utilize what makes sense and filter out the rest.
Is Howland becoming the new Gene Bartow?
A good coach who is a bad fit. Hear me out. Ben does well as an underdog coming into a crummy and/or dead program and turning it around. However, his stay at the “top” has been troubling the last two years in Westwood. Does he have the unique mindset to run the greatest basketball program? I hope so, but I’m starting to worry.
How important was Keating to UCLA recruiting?
I forget when he left exactly (2007?), but I remember him having an important role in our recruitment… After he left for the head coaching job at Santa Clara, we haven’t exactly had a successful recruiting class since. Are there any thoughts on his replacement, whoever that is, and whether or not Howland needs to find another Keating type to help on the recruiting trail?
Very good (and valid) question..
…that CBH needs to address. I think it’s something that might be why our recruiting has suffered since.
Mostly agree with you, Nestor
but I don’t share your confidence in JK. I posted in another thread about him being a foul magnet, and someone (I’m nearly positive it was britishbruin) found the numbers to show how foul-prone he is. I’d bump him down a couple of levels, and happily go with the rest of your lineup.
More of Almost Anyone and Less of Dragovic Makes For A Better Show!
I have too much time on my hands, so I looked up the Bruins’ shooting statistics in the games that Dragovic didn’t play and compared them to when he has played. Dragovic didn’t play in the Bakersfield and Pepperdine games. In those two games, UCLA shot 57%. In the games in which Dragovic has played, the team has shot a meager 39%. Now, I understand that Bakersfield and Pepperdine were perhaps the two weakest teams that UCLA has played this year, but the difference is still startling. Dragovic is shooting a miserable 24% overall and 19% from beyond the arc. If you take his numbers out of the team numbers, the team shooting percentage goes up to 41% in the games in which he has played, which still isn’t great. You wonder, however, if that number would be higher if other players were taking the shots that Dragovic takes (many of his shots shouldn’t be taken by anyone!). Now, I know that Ben Howland has forgotten more about this game than I will ever know, but I just wonder why he leaves Dragovic out there? He must be praying that somehow the shots will start falling and he’s afraid that nobody else has the potential to hit shots, that his offense will be even more inept if Dragovic isn’t out there. I don’t think that fear is backed up by the numbers, but what do I know? Another thing I’ll say is that it doesn’t look to me like Dragovic is in very good shape. I can understand why he might be distracted and not working out as much, given his personal problems. But I would be a lot happier at this point if Coach Howland were to take a little bit of a risk and go with younger players rather than Dragovic. At this point I don’t know what he has to lose by doing that.
The problem with Drago is;
even if he starts shooting well, we have seen in the past that it will stop. He has always been very streaky. He might carry the team through a half or even a game and then turn around and be cold as ice. He is not one that you can depend on game after game. We won’t even go into the defense and other “offensive” limitations.
N’s starting rotation looks good except that I might want to start JMM because of his size and have RN sub for him and JK on a regular basis.
by LongtimeBru on Dec 14, 2009 12:42 PM PST up reply actions
You gotta wonder
if Howland is trying to make a point that he’ll only reward 3-4 year players with playing time after being burned by JH? Maybe he’s trying to advertise that now so that one-and-doners won’t be interested in the program?
I mean seriously, I could do almost as “well” as Dragovic did in this last game. I’m only 6’1" but I could easily go 0 for 9! I might even actually make one! And I’m just about as good on defense. And at least, after the game, I’d find a camera or a reporter and say “Sorry guys, I suck”.
But hey, what do I know. I’m just the 800 lbs bruin in the room.
Ahahaha
That is classic. I’m only 5 2 but I’m pretty sure i could launch those bombs from far out with about the same success he has… I’d have to admit he’d have better luck at rebounding than me haha
by millikinbruin on Dec 14, 2009 1:40 PM PST up reply actions
Oh come on
At least ONE rebound would have to go your way, just out of luck!
But hey, what do I know. I’m just the 800 lbs bruin in the room.
I pretty much agree with all this,
because how could change hurt anything? Drago’s minutes are such that any sense of obligation CBH might feel has certainly been met. Size and experience are all he brought to the table, but what have those qualities actually produced? Not much, though he is still our 4th leading scorer! Howland may be looking at that shooting percentage and thinking that the law of regression to the mean suggests that he is going to shoot sixty or seventy per cent some day. But Drago can’t be a leading scorer when he has no cover, so to speak; someone else has to carry the load. Anyway, it is just wrong to keep starting him, and he might do better as a reserve. I think JA is a little better than he is usually credited with being on BN. I believe that he can and will improve significantly. Incidentally, he has 11 steals compared to ML’s 10, and in fewer minutes. Not that we have done much with steals, I’m sorry to say. TH definitely needs to be in the game, though the condition of his injured leg may be a problem there, I don’t know. And we have to go with Bobo; maybe we can force some growth, if he responds to the opportunity. MM and BL have shown only flashes, but bring ’em on, based on the same theory. Maybe it would all fall apart even further with so many changes, but I doubt it. I have expected more from JK, and I still do; I would certainly continue to give him some good minutes. Meanwhile, the basic problem continues; though outside shooters seem to abound throughout the whole nation, we seem to have just two, and none who can shoot even 40%. If you can fix that with lineup changes, things will get better in a hurry.
Otherwise, we struggle on.
+1
I agree with everything, even about JA, it just may not be this year. I think using him as a backup to ML at this point,would be good. He seems to have the physical abilities and it may take longer than some to acquire the other attributes. How many times have we seen kids come in and not hit their stride until their junior or senior years. I have always liked JK and would not give up on him. I am not sure what is going on this season, but in the past he has played with great intensity and been a spark coming off the bench.
by LongtimeBru on Dec 14, 2009 12:55 PM PST up reply actions
Drago Parties Too Much
I’m not here to throw more fuel on the Drago fire, but it was my friend’s birthday Thursday, so we took him out to some Hollywood clubs (don’t go, they suck — not worth your time)
Who do we run in to? Dragovich, drunk, and hitting on women with his Serbian friends — all looking like idiots.
I want to like the guy, but he should be working on his shot and resting up, instead of hitting the clubs at 2a.m.
OK, but
I guess we just have to take your word for it. No evidence. Maybe he’s also having an affair with Tiger? :)
Not saying it’s not true, but you know, it’s easy to throw stuff like that into the mix.
But hey, what do I know. I’m just the 800 lbs bruin in the room.
Evidence?
Isn’t eyewitness testimony evidence? At least in court (lawyers here correct me if wrong), I’ve been lead to believe it is valuable. I would also count a felony assault arrest in a nightclub as pretty strong evidence.
by gradstudentbruin on Dec 14, 2009 4:49 PM PST up reply actions
Why would I lie about it?
I’ve seen Drago several places: bar in Venice, century city movie theaters, etc.
I’ll give him one thing, he pulls some hot girls :)
But all those times it was out of season, this time I was a little ticked to see him hitting on girls at 2a.m.
I was so close to saying something — I should have ..then taken a photo for tasser10
It's all good
I’m not doubting you, it’s just that a lot of people come on here and say stuff like “I saw XYZ at Costco and he was eating all the Cheetos”. But in your case, his behavior fits the pattern. Seems Howland feels responsible for him misbehaving…so he gives him extra playing time? I don’t know, but it sure seems as though his priority is not basketball.
You were right not to say anything though, if he’s not self-motivated, and Howland can’t do it either, I doubt you’d be effective! He might have, you know, thrown you into a glass window or something…
But hey, what do I know. I’m just the 800 lbs bruin in the room.
He a knucklehead
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=akB8gfCMTDg
But hey, what do I know. I’m just the 800 lbs bruin in the room.
inside threat / outside threat / any threat?
N, the worry I would have with your starting lineup is how we would score any points.
If ND could actually regain his touch, you would have 2 shooters (ND/MR) spacing the floor for ML and TH to slash and RN to pick up pieces. Big if though, re: ND, I grant you.
In your lineup, we have no inside threat demanding a double-team, and only one outside shooter; which then takes away from ML/TH’s ability to penetrate and make things happen. I don’t think that puts you in a position to succeed schematically, even if the players play up to potential.
Some people suggest Bobo as center, which could open things up a bit offensively (drawing double-teams in the post; hopefully making space for other people); presumably moving RN to starting PF. Then the question is whether you give up too much on defense by playing two raw players inside, and an athletically gifted but inexperienced TH at the 3.
I don’t have an easy answer, and I don’t want to come off as a ND apologist. But from a schematic standpoint I can see how the lineup including ND has a chance to score points if people play well, and can see an alternative argument for Bobo as starting center to draw some attention in the middle. In your lineup, I think we would have to run double screens with JK and RN for Mike Roll every play, and hope TH could sneak in for some offensive boards…
I am hoping
If Honeycutt continues to develop he will provide an inside-outside scoring threat. I think he has the athleticism and skills to slash to the basket and also make mid range jump shots. I also think if Keefe is given enough time he might be a better option as a mid range shooter than Dragovic. Add to that I think if Lane is given enough time he might also be able to contribute a little from the outside as well (same goes with Moser).
All of them have can’t do any worse than what Dragovic has done as scorer. Moreover, athletically they provide better defensive and rebounding options than either Dragovic or Morgan.
At this point, based on the stats, one cannot do any worse than Dragovic. He is a lost cause as far as on the court performance. There is nothing to be gained from playing him. Period.
I'm not ripping on you personally
but JK has had 3+ seasons. I think that certainly qualifies as “enough time” to show if he deserves to be on the floor or not.
agreed re: TH
, hoping that he will have a mid-range game once he fully gets into the swing of things.
Not really sure there’s reason to have faith in JK’s midrange game in comparison with ND’s. In terms of a scoring threat, we definitely saw ND have productive games last season offensively, including a couple where he absolutely carried the team; we haven’t seen that from JK, one tournament game notwithstanding.
by britishbruin on Dec 14, 2009 2:17 PM PST up reply actions
I have more faith in Keefe than Dragovic
And it’s not just a hunch. Numbers from their career at UCLA bare it out.
FG made/percentage
Keefe: 87/96 (44%)
Drago: 152/383 (40%)
3 pt. made/percentage
Keefe: 17/51 (33%)
Drago: 80/245 (32%)
Total Rebounds/PG
Keefe: 263 (99 games, 2.67 rebounds per game)
Dragovic: 224 (71 games, 3.16 rebounds per game)
TOs/PG
Keefe: 59 (99 games, 0.60 TOs per game)
Dragovic: 63 (71 games, 0.89 TOs per game)
So, the only category Dragovic has an edge is in rebounding department and he has that edge barely. Otherwise, Keefe has an edge on him on every other category.
I would argue if Howland gave Keefe the same room to make mistakes as he has given Dragovic, Keefe might have found himself in better rhythm over the years. Howland treated Dragovic with lot more room to make mistakes than any other players and it has been nothing short of baffling and frankly it is now getting infuriating.
Note, I am not saying that Keefe should be getting 20+ mins a game. I am saying based on what we have seen it should be Keefe who should be starting and then backed up by Lane.
Keefe has better court awareness than Dragovic and he is more disciplined than Dragovic (then again that’s not saying much right now). Let him get the starting mins and then give Lane good chunks of mins on the court to show him what he can do. Dragovic has gotten his opportunity and the results are not pretty.
I should also add
Howland’s system has been more effective at UCLA when he has had guys doing their best to play smart defense, box out and get in position for defensive rebounds, hedge, and on the offensive side do everything they can to facilitate creation of easy/high percentage shots.
Based on his track record Keefe has done everything he can to make that effort. I do wonder whether his development would have been different if Howland gave him as much mins to “grow” and “develop” as he wasted on Dragovic. Keefe in his fourth year appears tentative and unsure at times and lot of that has to do with Howland’s quick hook (which weirdly doesn’t show up for Dragovic).
At this point, again I am not saying Keefe deserves 25+ mins a game. However, he should be the one getting the start setting it up for Brendan Lane. Dragovic shouldn’t be in the picture unless he is needed in garbage time.
re stats
if you look at JK’s rebounds per minute on the court, I’m sure he beats ND. ND does foul a lot less per minute on the court than JK though, as KSBruin will attest…
But I don’t think the shooting stats tell the story. There is no mid-range jump-shot stat kept, nor any correction for whether the shot is contested. How many of JK’s 3 attempts were wide open? Got to think (at least based on my memory, which has been known to be fallible) that JK gets more open looks than ND, as a percentage of shots attempted. Similarly, I would imagine a greater percentage of JK’s shots are tips, put-backs etc.
Not that this is a perfect measure of people’s ability as a shooter, but if you look at free throw % numbers, ND is pretty good over his career, and JK is horrible. With both guys standing taking an uncontested shot from midrange in front of the basket, ND kills JK.
by britishbruin on Dec 14, 2009 2:55 PM PST up reply actions
LOL, I don't care what they do in uncontested situations
When it comes to contested situations Keefe has slightly better numbers and he is a much better defender than Dragovic.
I sure hope Howland’s reasoning for playing Dragovic is not based on how he looks like an all star when no one is guarding him.
my point isn't that we should pick players based on FT%
my point is that the ‘numbers’ can be misleading when you look at FG%; and that you definitely can’t claim a better “mid-range game” based on FG%.
It is reasonable to suppose that with contested mid-range shots, players would shoot somewhat below their uncontested mid-range shot %.
JK’s career FT numbers are 30 of 67. (45%!)
ND’s career FT numbers are 54 of 63.
I can totally buy that JK is worth enough on defense to play him ahead of ND; I can also believe (though I have no way of evaluating it) that what he does off the ball contributes more to the offense than what ND does off the ball – in terms of setting screens and the like. No way I buy that the statistics cited thus far back up that JK is a better ‘mid-range shooter’ than ND.
by britishbruin on Dec 14, 2009 3:16 PM PST up reply actions
I specifically wrote
This:
Keefe is better than Dragovic when it comes to shot selection (he has better FG%) and he understands Howland’s offense and defense much better than Dragovic. Keefe’s problem has been on the FT line and just being too tentetive (which goes back to Howland having a quick hook for all the other players except for some one like Dragovic).
Clearly I wasn’t advocating for Keefe to start just because I think he has a better midrange shot (which might be debatable and I think numbers partly support the argument that he is a better shooter and more selective than Dragovic.
But just zeroing on that one point is silly. Dragovic at this point is a lost cause and someone spinning for him looks like the Dorrelistas spinning his spats.
Pretty much agree
And I am basically arguing that I’d rather have Keefe than Dragovic as our bridge/transition point to Brendan Lane.
ok
I was just responding to your response to my response, in which the only point you made about JK was that he might be a better mid-range option than ND. I said I didn’t have any faith in JK’s midrange game; against that you quoted some statistics that you said supported your hunch (I assumed addressing the comment I had made, rather than supporting a related-but-different point you had made in your original post). My original response was about schemes and spacing, in which whether or not those guys have mid-range games is an important question, not a silly point. Ability to understand the offense – the point you made in your original post – is an equally (or more) valid point to raise, and I have no reason to argue with your take on it.
You may be absolutely right in your overall assessment of their relative ability to contribute to our team’s success. Regarding the ability of the players to space the floor, I don’t think the numbers speak to that. I think CBH persists with ND because he thinks if the shots start falling at least a little, it opens things up for other people, in a way that hasn’t yet been shown to be possible by JK at any point in his career.
Not zeroing in on a point to defend ND; only trying to make a point about the offensive identity of the team, and give some possible strategic logic as to why CBH persists with ND despite his evident shortcomings (as it seems most (not all) people in this discussion seem to think it is just CBH being stubborn or blind to realities that should be obvious to a highly paid coach)
by britishbruin on Dec 14, 2009 3:48 PM PST up reply actions
ND's game
Has never fit the offensive identity of a Howland coached basketball team. A player jacking up ill advised shots, shooting air balls, not boxing out, making bonehead mistakes on both ends on the court doesn’t comport with a team trying to take on the identity of a protype Howland coached team.
You are sounding more and more like a Dragovic apologist with every comment in this thread. This is getting ridiculous.
if you want to make me an apologist
then I have no problem being labeled a CBH apologist.
ND, on the other hand, is the most frustrating player I have seen in CBH’s tenure. He seems to be prone to mental lapses, gives bad fouls rather than good fouls, is responsible for breakdowns on defense and some bad shots on offense. I think he is a headcase, comports himself poorly on and off the court, and is not what any of us should expect from a UCLA student-athlete.
Just so we’re clear on what I think of ND in the greater scheme of things.
by britishbruin on Dec 14, 2009 4:04 PM PST up reply actions
You don't need to go that far
to support your position, which is sound.
I care less about their histories than I do about what they are doing, now.
ND has not played well at either end of the court.
Yes, there is that economic theory that someone mentioned — that ND will “regress” to where he was good.
But, at his best, he was not all that good to merit continued confidence. He has never been a great D player.
There were moments, early this year, where he was playing very hard and I had hopes that he would morph into a senior leader but I don’t really see that happening.
And, I think this may soon become moot because if merit is the standard by which we choose who plays, I think there are some of the young kids who will beat both JK and ND on that standard.
sjh
Has anyone watched our guys practice???
I only ask this pertinent question because maybe the reason why ND gets so much playing time is because he’s a “warrior” in practice. If we’re all to assume that practice intensity begets playing time, why is that sentiment suddenly suspended when it comes to ND?
agree with the sentiment
also fits with Howland’s comments quoted on a previous thread about still being in the process of teaching the freshmen what it means to practice.
Only problem with the argument is that ND’s play on the court does not suggest at all that he is a warrior in practice.
At all.
by britishbruin on Dec 14, 2009 1:28 PM PST up reply actions
ND's on court play
doesn’t suggest he practices AT ALL! But CBH keeps putting him out there so that either means he’s a warrior in practice or everyone else just sucks so bad that he’s forced to play ND extensive minutes.
It's hard to suck more than
shooting 0-9 in a game, including multiple airballs, and not playing any D.
Dragovic shot well during the pac 10 season last year
His 3 point shot was around 45% during that stretch, if I remember correctly, in a period when he took a lot of shots. Aside from that portion, his career has been dismal, but it’s important to keep streaks in mind rather than just cite career numbers. For a good half season, Drago’s offense finally stepped up in a large role. Keefe has never contributed anything like that 2/3rds of a season.
Howland is banking on that possibility repeating itself. I personally think it was an aberration. But you can certainly claim that Drago finally got it going given his first chance — whereas Keefe had been given opportunities throughout his career. In fact, Howland was always very big on Keefe, and he was the starter last year before losing it to Drago.
While I can stand neither player, I think there is more hope in Drago repeating last year’s 2/3rd season of good, prolific shooting than in Keefe doing anything. His defense and rebounding has been just as awful in my eyes.
I just have to disagree
And I would also argue that Drago’s 45 percent shooting during that stretch was somewhat fool’s gold. He had couple of good games but rest of it was marred by classic Drago like game of horrible defense and bonheaded plays all over the court. He is infuriating to watch.
I agree with both of you somewhat
I think ND is more infuriating than JK, by far.
At the same time, ND has shown the ability to light it up for whole games, and sustain some kind of shooting touch over a few games, in the past, whereas JK hasn’t.
BUT ND has NOT shown any offensive game this season, which would make you wonder whether he can do it without DC, JS and PAA leading the team.
Meh.
by britishbruin on Dec 14, 2009 7:27 PM PST up reply actions
Brandon Lloyd vs. ND: numbers
Couldn’t find a breakdown of 2-pt vs 3-pt attempts for Lloyd, but it’s fair to assume that the vast majority of his shots were threes. Brandon Lloyd’s career totals: 47/127 for 37.0%.
ND: listed from current year back to freshman year.
7/36 19.4%
60/157 38.2%
10/42 23.8%
3/10 30%
ND career totals for three: 80/245 32.7%.
Brandon Lloyd is our winner!!
Lineup changes proposed are great idea
ND to the end of the bench and JA to a back-up with MR and MLplaying guards would improve overall as staff could be showing JA what to do in various situations. I saw him at Canyon HS a few times and he was very good but they played very uptempo. JK can be steady but the bigs who are going the best should get most minutes. As far as free throws are concerned only changes in the way and the timing of their practicing this segment will lead to improvement but it is possible IF they commit to it. CBH is a good coach and can turn the results around but time and the schedule is flying by.
great ideas for line-up changes
I agree with all of them.
BUT…
Will we ACTUALLY see any of these changes happen? What do you think the actual probability of CBH removing ND or JA is? I suppose I’m playing the pessimist role here, but I just don’t see the changes happening any time soon. Just more and more frustration.
If we don't see the changes soon
If Howland stays stubborn and continue to produce blowout and dispiriting losses, then it won’t be just the players who appeared to quit on him and tuned him out on Sat.
Will these changes make the team better?
I like the reasoning & the mental exercise in this post, but even if CBH can adjust & compensate can he make the players make FTs & play with heart? I sure hope so…
Ugh, FML.
From the LA Times
“His recent lack of rebounding and poor defensive play are more of a concern to Howland. But Dragovic’s spot in the starting lineup remains secure, at least for the time being.
“If he continues to play at this pace . . . obviously he’s going to play less minutes,” the coach said. “But I don’t expect that to happen.”"
http://www.latimes.com/sports/college/basketball/la-spw-ucla-basketball15-2009dec15,0,407047.story
I heard that in practice Drago is 8 ft tall, his athleticism triples, he plays solid defense, and he hits 90% from 95 ft! Cause how else would you justify keeping him on the court despite horrible in-game performances?
aye!
… and he’ll consume the English with fireballs from his eyes, and bolts of lightning from his arse
Of course!
How could we all have been so blind. He’s a leading all-american candidate and our team has an 8-0 record. Duh. Silly us.
by longbordr52 on Dec 14, 2009 10:45 PM PST up reply actions
We better start lining up our short list of people to replace Coach Howland
Obviously he’s lost his way, and can’t be counted on any more. So who should we get? Preferably our candidate should have prior head coaching experience. Maybe at a small school, then a bigger school in a tough conference. I want someone with a proven track record of taking a program that is in shambles and restoring it to glory. It would be nice to have someone who recognizes UCLA’s unique heritage.
Not yet
CBH has earned some leeway. All of us are concerned about his handling of this team’s failure so far, but one season doesn’t push him out. I’m hoping to see a strong push by the time the Pac-10 tournament rolls around. Maybe 10-15 wins by then. Those are my expectations for the year. Pretty low, huh?
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