Bruins Nation: An SB Nation Community

Navigation: Jump to content areas:


Sports blogs for fans, by fans.
New Blog: Sounder At Heart for Seattle Sounders Fans!

SI.com's Seth Davis (Duke Graduate) Needs a Lesson in Logic

Bumped. Not the first time this year we have seen anti-Bruin garbage from an SI.com writer. GO BRUINS. -N

In SI today, Seth Davis penned an article bemoaning the Bruins' ranking.

I'm sorry to hate on my fellow voters, but there is no logic -- none -- to have UCLA ranked ahead of Arizona. And not just ahead, but nine spots ahead. Was I hallucinating, or did Arizona just spank UCLA by 12 points last week? Yes, the game was in Tucson, but it's not like Arizona was a fluke; it was the Wildcats' seventh-straight win. It's time for voters and fans to come to a cold realization about UCLA. The Bruins have yet to beat a team that is currently ranked in the top 25. They have a chance to rectify that when they get No. 22 Washington at home on Thursday night, but for the time being, UCLA is overrated.

No logic? Apparently, they don't teach that course at Duke (I took logic from the esteemed Donald Kalish at UCLA, so I know what I am talking about.) Here is some logic:

  • UCLA dismantled Arizona 83-60 a few weeks ago.
  • Arizona is 2-6 on the road, with the only wins coming against the Oregon schools and bad losses to Stanford and Texas A&M. Only 2 of these 6 losses was by single digits.
  • UCLA is ahead of Arizona in the Pac-10 standings, even though Arizona still has to play at ASU and at Washington and has only 2 remaining home games.
  • In the last 3 weeks, UCLA has outscored its opponents, including 2 bubble teams (USC, Notre Dame) and an NCAA tourney lock (Cal) by an average of 12 points, even if you include the two losses this past weekend.
  • Louisville lost to Notre Dame by 33 points, yet Davis ranks the 5-loss Louisville team (which also has losses to Western Kentucky (neutral court) and UNLV (home court)) 11th, an unknown number of spots ahead of Notre Dame.
  • The Bruins are 7th in Pomeroy and 20th in Sagarin,  Arizona is 33rd and 38th.
  • The Bruins have not beaten a top-25 team, but they've only had 3 chances, two on the road. Sample size.
  • Poll Rankings are a flawed measure to use to determine whether a team is deserving of a ranking. Had UCLA lost to Cal, Cal would be ranked and we'd be 0-4 against ranked teams. Flip side, if we had beaten ASU twice, ASU would have 7 losses and probably would not be ranked (the only ranked team with 7 losses is Syracuse), and if we had beated UW once, UW would have 7 losses and probably would not be ranked.
  • Further to the prior point, in 2006, UCLA entered the NCAA tournament with a 1-4 record against ranked teams, the lone win coming against #21 Nevada, and losses to #3 Memphis, #17 Washington (twice) and #23 West Virginia. By Seth's logic, UCLA didn't deserve to be ranked. We all know what happened.
  • Arizona has 8 losses on the season, and we only have 6.
  • Our Pac-10 scoring margin is +7.8, Arizona's is +1.8.

All of those reasons point toward UCLA being ranked over Arizona. The only two factors that would put Arizona ahead of UCLA are the head-to-head victory (which is offset by our head-to-head victory by a greater margin) and that Arizona's beaten the 18th, 19th and 20th ranked teams at home (and UCLA, who doesn't deserve the ranking, so why would we count them) and is therefore 4-2 against ranked teams (3-1 if UCLA is not ranked).

And that leads to another reason why Arizona doesn't deserve to be ranked ahead of UCLA. The Wildcats have lost to 6 unranked teams. I don't know about you, but the list of reasons for UCLA being ranked ahead of Arizona far outweighs the reasons for Arizona to be ranked.

Put that in your pipe, Seth, and smoke it.

In other news, we'd better win on Thursday, or I'm going to go postal.

This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of BruinsNation's (BN) editors. It does reflect the views of this particular fan though, which is as important as the views of BN's editors.

3 recs  |  Comment 26 comments

Story-email Email Printer Print

More from Bruins Nation

Proving Doubters Wrong ...

Mar 2009 by Nestor - 29 comments

Gut-Check Time

Feb 2009 by Nestor - 2 comments

Comments

Display:

STATEMENT

we need to make one Thursday, and historically it’s about the time we start making them. I can’t wait for this game.

by buffsnbruins on Feb 17, 2009 7:16 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

Interesting note about 2006 against ranked teams

It really helps put things in perspective. I’m not one to think that last weekend was the end of the universe, but I certainly wouldn’t have put this team on par with the 2006 one. I guess we’ll just have to see what happens.

by Class of 09 on Feb 17, 2009 7:42 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

Not going to get too worked up over this

Davis has a point in that we haven’t beaten any ranked teams this year. This situation is compounded with the fact that we have lost nearly all of our nationally televised games. However, Brunisrule you have done a great job disproving his analysis. The fact that UA has 8 losses is reason enough for them not to be ranked. Either way, rankings in basketball are pointless and this angle of Davis’ is just a rip off of Gary Parrish’s “poll attacks” artilce that he writes on cbssportsline. Just a way to drum up some controversy.

All that matters is the next game. As terrible as we played this weekend and how we felt it was the end of the world, nearly every team in the top 25 lost last week. Now, those teams fans are probably thinking it is the end of the world too, but what that means is that this is a pretty even year where anything can happen. Let’s take things one step at a time and get the Pac 10 championship and go from there.

by bruinponcho on Feb 17, 2009 7:45 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

Perfect!

I couldn’t agree more.

sjh

by Class of 66 on Feb 18, 2009 5:03 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Good Point

I agree with Class of 66. Until the Bruins beat a ranked team, they will not be taken seriously. Let’s get it done tonight!

richramus

by richramus on Feb 18, 2009 10:25 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Seriously

Seriously, how is an “analyst” not capable of looking at the standings and a team’s overall schedule?

Ridiculous.

by gilbert on Feb 17, 2009 7:55 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

We've been hearing crap from "analysts" for years

If we secure a top 5 seed we’ll open up the tourney out west we’ll have a good shot at making the second weekend where anything can happen. I spend enough time worrying about our guys on the court so I won’t bother myself with this stuff. March will tell all.

by Ryan Rosenblatt on Feb 17, 2009 8:02 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

Perhaps this "journalist" points should be pointed at Duke, not UCLA

Duke is ranked no. 9 in both polls, despite having lost four of their last 6. One of their two wins was over perennial powerhouse Miami (by 3.) They got beat by Clemson by 27. How about a mutual opponent – Michigan. We lost by 3, they lost by 8 (sure, we were at home, they were on the road.) Nonetheless, Duke continues to stay in the top 10. How many losses before that lofty perch is questioned by this guy whose name I’ve already forgotten. What keeps them propped up so high in the rankings?

by Fox 71 on Feb 17, 2009 8:47 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

IIRC, didn't we lose to michigan at MSG?

a very minor point. i completely agree with you, fox. duke certainly can be seen as overrated given their recent record. furthermore, as the post implies, rankings are based a lot on how the “experts” perceive the conference’s strength. with that, wins in the ACC or Big East are impressive and losses are not so bad. the rankings are a self-fulfilling prophecy. my only concern is how it influences the selection committee. i’m praying we can win a few more and stay out west.

Bruins Forever

by bruinsince69 on Feb 17, 2009 9:00 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

We did lose to them at MSG

Michigan lost to Duke by 15 at MSG and beat them by 8 in Ann Arbor.

by Ryan Rosenblatt on Feb 17, 2009 9:03 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

You are spot on. My favorite point is the flawed "beating a ranked opponent"

It is a matter of timing and what ifs. You are brilliant in pointing out that if we had beat ASU and WU they wouldnt be ranked. How about if ND was still ranked when we beat them. What a crime for losing on the road to any pac 10 school. Geez, tonight Michigan St. #6 got smoked on the road to #19 Purdue, who just last week lost on the road themselves. Home court in college basketball is usually a major advantages that gives the 6th or 7th place team in most conferences a real hope of stunning the top teams in those respective conferences. The one thing that seems clear to me this year is that it is really anybodys tournament. There will be some 6-9 seeds that go deep in the tourney. We just need to be peaking at the right time. We have done it before and for now I have alot of hope still.

formerly known as popopapa

by 84 on Feb 17, 2009 9:01 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

It's true

That we are or have been overrated in the polls most of the season based on our success over the past 3 seasons + bringing in the best overall recruiting class. We had a great run over those 4 games but they were also all at home and put us at #6 was definitely a bit premature. But who really cares about the rankings, they really don’t mean anything and the great thing about college basketball is that everyone gets a chance to prove their real worth in March and that is where we have excelled. To say, though, that Arizona should be ranked ahead of us, or somehow has had a better overall season/resume than us is completely idiotic/moronic/insert appropriate adjective here.

by turs12 on Feb 17, 2009 9:51 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

I think you can't measure the quality of a team only by the NCAA's

That was Lavin’s claim to success: tournament runs to the Elite 8. The only problem with that is it only takes 3 wins in a row.

To measure the success of a program you have to look at success in the tournament, success in conference and success across the year. By that measure UCLA has looked great for 3 years: 30 win seasons, 3 conference championships. It is more than 3 Final Fours in a row.

If we close out the year and win the conference I believe that is an indicator of a successful season.

Yes a “deep run” in the tourney is great but so is a strong performance across the season!

by Bruin Dad and Grad on Feb 18, 2009 1:31 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Exactly!

I’ve always hated the “Sweet Sixteen” hoopla. Who cares? Unless you’re a 9 seed or worse, it really doesn’t mean anything! It means you’ve beaten teams that aren’t as good as you…so what?

Go Howland! Keep on keepin’ on!

But hey, what do I know. I’m just the 800 lbs bruin in the room.

by tasser10 on Feb 18, 2009 3:05 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

i agree but

a 9 seed in the Sweet 16 would’ve beaten a 1 seed. The top 4 seed are supposed to make the Sweet 16, not top 8

but I agree with the point you’re trying to make. Sweet 16s shouldn’t be a benchmark

by bucknellbruin on Feb 18, 2009 6:45 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

A few more thoughts after reading some replies

I agree with several of you that the rankings are meaningless. They aren’t used for seeding. They are mainly a function of where you were in the preseason poll, adjusted for how many times you lose and when. They don’t take into account how you lose or where you lose.

Seth, if you want to put Arizona ahead of UCLA, I suggest you also put Villanova over Marquette. A month ago, Marquette beat Villanova at home; last week Nova creamed Marquette by 18. The same Marquette team who rode a bottom weighted Big East schedule (the Golden Eagles still haven’t played UConn, Pitt, Louisville or Syracuse) to a 9-0 conference mirage before falling to South Florida. Meanwhile, Villanova is 20-5, just destroyed Marquette and has already beaten Pitt by 10 and lost close games to UConn and Louisville. Think maybe their record would be better than Marquette’s if they had played DePaul twice (like Marquette has done) instead of UConn and Louisville? Thought so.

I also just noticed that he also put Arizona ahead of ASU, who beat Arizona on the road and leads them in the conference standings and has only lost 5 games all season. I’m beginning to see your logic.

UCLA may or may not be one of the top 25 teams in the country right now, but I personally think we are, and I think that we will finish the season strong. As strong as 2006, probably not, but it’s possible. That this joker wants to cherry pick one game as clear and convincing evidence that Arizona is far better than us and vote that way, so be it. That he specifically calls us out in his pathetic article and says there’s no logic to the other voters’ decisions is either dumb or an intellectually dishonest attempt to sway other voters against us.

by BruinsRule on Feb 17, 2009 10:56 PM PST reply actions   1 recs

I love the logic Bruinsrule!

A coach is someone who can give correction without causing resentment. John Wooden

by MexiBruin on Feb 17, 2009 11:40 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

Meaningless

Who cares what S. Davis said. It is a likely story this week after we got pounced on twice in Arizona. The week before it was UCLA in the Final Four and all the blah blah blah about how we were underrated. No one ever sees the middle ground.

For the national media, and for some fans, this year has been Feast or Famine. We are either great, or mediocre. But the truth is, we’re somewhere in the middle. We’ve beaten all the teams we should beat—which is a sign of a good team. And we’ve lost all the big games against our toughest competition—a sign of a team which is mediocre.

While I agree that we should be ranked higher than Arizona, I don’t have a problem with anyone questioning UCLA’s ranking or wondering whether we should be ranked at all. Even though the rankings are pointless, I always thought of a ranking as a sign that you are capable of beating the best teams. And so far, we haven’t been able to do that. It’s not that we can’t beat those teams, but in my view of the rankings we are barely worthy. Of course, who cares about my view of ranking teams or S. Davis’s, since the rankings are meaningless anyway. As noted by BruinsRule, anything could happen in the tourney (see 2006), even if we never beat a ranked team (or only beat one).

by rfirpo on Feb 18, 2009 6:12 AM PST reply actions   0 recs

You may not care

But lot of us care here on BN when one of ours attempt to defend our basketball team from baseless attacks from a traditional media figure who opines from a large platform.

It you don’t agree with it that’s fine, but do not diminish someone’s effort to stick up for UCLA. After all this is a freaking UCLA blog.

by Nestor on Feb 18, 2009 6:21 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Nestor speaks for me on this

We can squabble within the family. But when an outsider (especially a blowhard outsider) shoots his mouth off, we should stick up for the efforts of our brothers and sisters to set the record straight. And this guy is truly a blowhard. He’s still probably POed because the Bruins blew out Dook by 15 in Coach’s first championship game.

by Fox 71 on Feb 18, 2009 7:31 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Seth is a tool...

I’m not one to get TOO hung up over rankings (although I always want UCLA to be ranked as high as possible, since I believe we deserve that respect), but in no way does it gauge how confident I am with our team.

We smoke 4 teams in a row, including a ND team that turned around and spanked Louiville. Two losses later, and now we’re overrated? A lost to ASU on the road, was a tough battle that may have been decided by a bullcrap SPTR call. The lost to UA was obviously UCLA not playing UCLA basketball. Things got lazy and out of hand, but is in no way indicative of what we’re capable of. Makes me wonder if Seth has even watched any of UCLA’s previous games. When we blow out othe teams we never get mentioned.

At the end of the day, I think UCLA does need to grab a win against UW or ASU (hopefully the Pac-10 tourney?) just to show a complete body of work. I think UCLA, ASU, and UW are the main tournament contenders in the Pac-10 right now (UA has been building a case for themselves lately). However, I think we need to show everyone else that we can also beat the better school in the Pac-10 if we hope to get a good seed at the end of the day.

That being said, “In other news, we’d better win on Thursday, or I’m going to go postal.” is damn right haha—-too bad I’ll be on plane back to LA from TX when it starts. Hopefully I’ll catch some of the second half. GO BRUINS!

by BMV268 on Feb 18, 2009 1:20 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

I swear that in years past Seth Davis was always the guy picking UCLA to make it

to the final 4. He seemed to favor the Bruins a bit over other west coast teams like Gonzaga, UW, the standard. Now he isnt liking our chances. Hmmm.. You’re right, he is a tool.

formerly known as popopapa

by 84 on Feb 18, 2009 1:26 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

you know, I seem to remember during the '06 Final 4 run...

him picking us to lose to kansas, LSU and I think Gonazaga as well. I think after that year, he seemed to like our chances. To be fair, hardly anyone outside of Westwood expected UCLA to make a deep run in the tourney that year.

by BMV268 on Feb 18, 2009 3:43 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

totally off-topic

renardo sidney is supposed to announce a college choice this sunday. anyone with thoughts? i’ve heard rumblings that he was picking ucla, but i find that hard to believe in light of his awkward recruitment to date, though he’d be a great addition.

Across The Face

by rb bruin on Feb 18, 2009 2:16 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

Comments For This Post Are Closed


User Tools

Welcome to Bruins Nation, an unofficial daily online scrap book covering the greatest collegiate athletic program in the nation. GO BRUINS.
Start posting about the Bruins »

Join SB Nation and dive into communities focused on all your favorite teams.

FanPosts

Community blog posts and discussion.

Recommended FanPosts

2145443360_ab27e15b11_b_small
Bleeding Blue and Gold ... Always
Morrell_small
The UCLA Passing Game Under Norm Chow
Arron_afflalo1_small
NBA Opening Night (Bruin Edition)
Rowing_picture_small
Football is like a box of chocolates
Th_ucla182c2_small
Broke the $3000 mark today- Thank you, Bruins!

Recent FanPosts

Bruinsnation_small
Harrison Barnes' Amazing Trip To Howlandwood
Bruinsnation_small
The Big Red Signs Off
Moreyouknow_small
Pre-Game Guesses: Oregon State Results
Screen_shot_2009-09-28_at_6
13-9’s Tidbits: Washington Edition
Small
Hartman doesnt get it
Ucla_small
Ben Ball 09-10, Day 1
Small
Google News Bruin feed created
Bruinsnation_small
Adam Maya/OC Register In CYA Mode: Fails To Take Responsibility, Attacks Player's Parent
Small
Random: Reggie Bush has a framed UCLA jersey in his house
Bruinsnation_small
Ben Ball Game Day Roundup: Season Starts Tonight

+ New FanPost All FanPosts >

SPONSORS


Managers

094_small Ajax

Bruinsnation_small Nestor

Menelaus2_small Menelaus

Arron_afflalo1_small Tydides

Brad_pitt_as_achilles_small Achilles

Small Meriones

Telemachus_small Telemachus

Small Odysseus

Blue_bellerophon_small Bellerophon

Authors

Images_small Ryan Rosenblatt

Official Partner of CBS Sports