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Around SBN: The 2009-2010 Card Chronicle Big East basketball preview

Scattered Thoughts: Seniors, Focus/Defensive Intensity & Recalibration Of Season Perspective

Last 24 hours we have had some good discussions (and some great posts) development of freshmen. I wanted to shift our attention over to our upperclassmen.  I specifically wanted to expand upon the point blinkshot made in his spot on post about freshmen expectations from the weekend:

Undoubtedly, these expectations aren't just on the freshmen - but also the team as a whole. However, when we consider that Aboya was a backup to LMR and LRMAM for 2 years (and of course, LMR backed up Love last year as well), that Shipp has always been the 3rd option on the team, that Dragovic barely had minutes before this season and isn't a great defender yet (and has skill sets more fitting of a 3, but has to play the 4 for us) - it should be no doubt that we'd have inconsistent play as we try to fit a convert a bunch of former role-players to starters and integrate 5 freshmen into a defensive system.

I have been thinking about this for a while and this kind of goes back to a post baldbruin wrote about experience last weekend following the tough loss against Arizona. The more that I think about it experience is not the key problem with our team. I think the key problem with our team is it doesn’t have an overwhelming, dominating leadership presence we have been blessed with last few years and also during the 1995 title run. Few weeks ago while discussing DC's leadership, I invoked the memories of 1995 bringing up Ed O, Edney and Zidek. I think in terms of talent PAA has an edge over Zidek. However, when it comes to leadership I think DC/JS are not Ed O and Edney.

Now let me be clear. I am by no means expressing disappointment in DC and JS. Those guys will be special Ben Ball warriors given what they have accomplished during their time in Howland’s program. Nothing will take away from their contributions to reestablishment of UCLA as a basketball power in the national scene. Yet, I think we also have to be honest with ourselves and realize that neither neither DC nor JS have the dominating leadership presence of an Ed O or AA.

Ed O or AA instilled an “attitude” in their teams through their play on both ends of the court. DC or JS just don’t have that because of their inability to play the role of a defensive stopper. Again it’s not an indictment on their efforts but the fact is neither DC nor JS have the ability to match up against more athletic opponents. They have been getting torched on the defensive end. It’s a bummer because given the fact that hallmark of a Ben Howland coached team is defense, it is incredibly difficult for any of these guys to vocally lead rest of the team when they themselves are getting burned on D time after time.

When Ed was leading the team in 95 or when AA/JF/LRMAM/RW led the team last few years, you knew in the back of your mind that we were going to lock up the opponent when we needed a stop or get that key bucket. I have to admit I don’t have that confidence any more in the back of mind while watching this team.

Again, it’s not an indictment against these group of seniors and upperclassmen of the talented freshmen bunch (as pointed out by posters here). I just think it was unfair on my part to hope that DC/JS/PAA would have the kind of senior year Ed O/Edney/Zidek enjoyed in their last year at UCLA. The more I think of this year’s team perhaps we should think about the mix Howland had in his second year at UCLA with the upperclassmen core of DT/CB/RH mixed in with the freshmen bunch of AA/JF/JS/LMR. If you look at the Kenpom.com offensive/defensive stats from last five years the comparison seems more apt:

Year Offense Defense
2004-05 108.1 (69) 94.0 (55)
2005-06 113.0 (28) 85.1 (3)
2006-07 116.8 (23) 84.0 (2)
2007-08 119.7 (7) 83.9 (3)
2008-09 121.04 (3) 92.9 (43)

Notice the defensive stats from 2005 and this year.

This is not the first time Howland has had a tourney team with mediocre defense at UCLA. Howland’s 2004-05 team was having defensive issues because it took a while for the upperclassmen core of DT/CB/RH to gel with Howland’s first recruiting class at UCLA. It took almost two years for that team to finally get it going as it turned it on following a very disappointing loss at Southern Cal in later part of 05-06 season. I think we are experiencing the same deal right now. We don’t have a dominating presence like Ed’O in the locker room.

Our current  group of seniors (and upperclassmen) have some talent, but Howland hadn’t depended on them to play as major roles as they have been playing this year. While at the same time we have 5 talented kids still figuring out what it takes to play Ben Ball defense with 40 minutes of sustained intensity in closing stretches of this season. I firmly believe these kids will get it by next year. It will take time. I know I have been frustrated with not sensing the same intensity from JH as I sensed from AA and RW. Yet if you look at the numbers from 04-05, you can see what kind of defense we had despite AA and JF’s passion and desire for winning every game.

So I am going to do is hope that our guys come out and just fight to win every game. I don’t really care what happens at this point in terms of who wins the Pac-10 conference. I just want us to regroup and play with nothing to lose starting on Thursday night against the Stanford Cardinal. I do believe we will be underdogs against the Trees that will be chomping at the bits to jump all over UCLA.  Maples is one of the tougher places to play in the conference. Dawkins's team hasn't had the greatest year but they have had some decent wins at home including a win over Montgomery's Bears.

All I can ask for right now is for our guys is to give everything they have from start to finish. In some ways, our guys should play a little more relaxed from here on out because they no longer should feel any burden of winning the Pac-10 championship. It’s out of our hands now. What they can do is figure out how they can turn up the intensity on defense and focus on executing on all the opportunities they get on offense (will not rehash all the blown layups from last couple of games).

By the way, speaking of executing on offense, I think as clear as it is that the core issue for this year's team is defense, I think a key problem on our offense is we are not executing when our team really needs it. Last year we had KL, who was just about as sure shot as a team could get on offense via his lowpost game, shooting touch and FT shooting. We also had that from Ed O during that 94-95 season. As described above I just don't think DC has that ability to carry the team that way. Again it doesn't take away anything from what DC has given to this program and the legacy he will leave as one of the most successful UCLA basketball player in post-Wooden era. Still it's something to think about in terms of recalibrating our perspective on rest of this season. I have certainly done with mine.

Lastly, I should make the point that we shouldn’t be looking ahead to the Pac-10 tourney or the Madness. I know it's mantra of this community to take it one game at a time but it still is worth repeating for all the newcomers in recent days/weeks. If our guys don’t work on getting better on finding their defensive grove, intensity and focus (they seemed to locate during that four game home stand), we will have a very short stay in both of those tournaments (just like we did in 04-05).

So, here is to our guys finding their focus and defensive intensity, allowing our three seniors leaving on a high note.

GO BRUINS.

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Perspective

Is critical here…and should inform our expectations…our team is very talented and has the ability to beat anyone in the nation on any given day, but the reason we have been able to reach 3 consecutive final fours is that defensive intensity that gives us the ability to win despite huge drops in offensive production that are naturally going to happen in basketball…

What I wonder, and I know we’ve had some discussion on the boards, is how much validity to give Don Maclean’s comments that other coaches in the Pac-10 have figured out how to play against Howland’s style of defense…personally I think that the points Nestor brings up above are a much larger component, but I do think that the coaching in our league has been improving dramatically since CBH’s arrival in Westwood…the analysis about where Lee and Holiday are relative to AA and JF in the early years is very encouraging, though

by glassbruin on Feb 23, 2009 5:49 AM PST reply actions   0 recs

It's not about other teams having figured us out

It’s about our defense not executing as well as it did in the past few seasons. The post double team used to be executed early and often. Now, you see an agressive double about twice per game. When you see a giant like Baynes split the double team with a dribble, you can trust that it was a poorly executed double team.

We no longer make anyone pay for taking it to the rim. Against WSU, how many times did you see a WSU player beat his man off the dribble and proceed unimpeded to the hoop? I recall one such play in which one of our defenders (I won’t name him), rather than challenge the driving player, retreated to the other side of the basket, thus ensuring smooth passage for the Cougar. In the last 3 seasons, that almost never would have happened. The guy would have been challenged, his shot altered, his resolve to drive again weakened. This year, he gets a lay in and gainst resolve to do it again (and again).

In the past few seasons, teams would try the same things they are trying now and would even have success for stretches during games. When they couldn’t, it wasn’t for lack of scheme but for our defensive execution being better than their offensive execution. This year, our rotations are slower, our ability to lock down perimeter players is much weaker, our interior defense is less bruising, our ability to take our opponent out of its comfort zone, a sight to behold in prior years, has rarely happened this year.

by BruinsRule on Feb 23, 2009 11:04 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Another thought about your comment ...
I recall one such play in which one of our defenders (I won’t name him), rather than challenge the driving player, retreated to the other side of the basket, thus ensuring smooth passage for the Cougar.

I noticed that a lot too. It seems to me the defender doesn’t challenge the driving player because the defender is afraid of the dish off when he leaves his own man. To me, that means our players aren’t confident that other defenders will rotate to the open man. (my daughter’s old club coach called this “help the help”). You try to help and then your man gets the easy bucket, how do you feel? But someone needs to cover for you too.

by Telemachus on Feb 23, 2009 11:29 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Help the Help

And this in a nutshell is why I believe the defense is suffering. As many others have already noted, this is why it hurt so much to lose a glue guy like Luc. There have been a number of occasions where I saw the helper being confused as to double team the post or not. He would go half way between his man and the man in the post, while the post guy would simply kick the ball back out to a wide open 3-point shooter or hit a guy cutting through the lane. In a lot of ways our defense is a very fragile thing where if one tiny piece breaks down the opposing team will end up with a wide open 3-point shot or a high percentage shot in the lane. The previous 3 years we’ve been seeing this defense when it works, and it definitely works. This year we’ve seen the other half of that equation.

by bruin8uclap on Feb 23, 2009 8:37 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Good Post; But I'm Conflicted

Nestor, I like this post. It resonates with 1/2 of me. Maybe we just aren’t that good, maybe we are seeing the best we have to offer. Maybe our seniors just aren’t capable of delivering that little extra needed to yank close losses into victories. I can’t disagree with your take because 1/2 of me completely agrees.

On the other hand, 1/2 of me disagrees. My alternative take is, unfortunately, a little darker.

To begin with, I agree that expecting a final four or a deep run in the tournament was too much to ask of this team. It was (and is) possible, but given our key losses from last year’s team, it shouldn’t have been expected. In addition, to expect Holiday and the other freshman to be Kevin Love was also asking too much. We could hope for that result, but it shouldn’t disappoint, because that too was just too much to ask.

Ok, now that those starting points off my back, I must say part of me has no problem saying that this team has been a little disappointing up to this point. As the team sits right now, we are tied for 3rd place, a game ahead of 5th place Arizona who just torched us, and who is one of the hottest teams in the Pac-10. We have a tough weekend ahead in the Bay Area, and we could easily lose two. I’m not saying that I think that will happen, but I’m saying our recent play shouldn’t render two losses surprising. Regardless, we could end the weekend in 5th Place, or even 6th if USC plays well (unlikely, thank god).

Of course, we could also end up alone in third, or even 2nd if things go right. But, that seems unlikely as of right now given how we are playing.

Now, while I think expecting a final four or a deep tourney run was a little over the top (though possible), I didn’t think we’d be losing crucial games at home to inferior Washington St. with lackluster play this late in the season. And I didn’t think we’d be fighting to stay in the top 4 or 5 of the conference. And that is because, for all the talk of expecting too much of this team and certain players—I can’t say that our play makes that much sense. We have good players; our cupboard isn’t exactly empty (particularly in relation to other Pac-10 teams).

Collison is a preseason all-american point guard who has played extremely well in his career. Shipp is a good player, and Aboya is a lock-down defender. All three are seniors, who have played in huge games and have made huge contributions. Keefe and Roll also made huge contributions for 2 years, and have also played in multiple final fours. And then we added the # 1 recruiting class and a break-out season from Drago. Sure, we aren’t the dominating team we once were, but I didn’t see this team as a middle-of-the-road Pac-10 squad either. I don’t know—1/2 of me thinks chalking this up to lack of talent and experience is accepting a little too much mediocrity. But that is just my opinion.

Of course I stand by the team, and I will always be a fan and rooting hard. But, a big part of me thinks Collison and Shipp aren’t playing up to their potential. Or haven’t made key strides this year. And the same goes for our freshman. Recently, there has been a little regression, and I don’t think it is unfair to to them to point it out. True they are young kids, and they will be good. But college basketball is a tough sport that takes heart and resolve to be successful—and you have to be able to take some criticism.

Anyway, I don’t know where I stand. 1/2 of me completely agrees with Nestor’s post, and the other half thinks we aren’t playing up to our potential. I am conflicted. I suppose at the end of the day, I agree that expectations were too high and that some poor play is too be expected. On the other hand, I get frustrated when I hear too many excuses for our poor play, as if this team was destined for mid-level Pac-10 play all along. The talent on this team is better than most teams, and at some point, the players either live up to it, or they don’t. The players likely don’t see themselves as a sneak-into-the-tournament kind of team, and I don’t either.

Anyway, good post Nestor. As I said, I don’t disagree with what you wrote. I just find myself personally conflicted, and thought I’d add my two cents.

Go Bruins.

by rfirpo on Feb 23, 2009 7:39 AM PST reply actions   1 recs

Be specific

What do you mean when you say Collison and Shipp aren’t playing up to their potential?

I personally think it’s quite simple, and everyone is making way too much of a big deal. Yes, our defense is not as good, but we have made up for that somewhat by having a better offense. But this is what people seem to overlook: of our 7 losses, 5 of them were nail-biters, games we lost at the end. To me there have only been two games, @ UW and @ AZ, where we were never close to pulling it off.

This, to me, shows one thing, and one thing only: we are still house cats. It has nothing to do with DC or JS “regressing”, or with the Freshmen "underperforming. It is simply a mental issue. Collectively, we don’t have a killer instinct. Everything else, IMO, is just details that we can certainly point to on a game by game basis, but those details do not constitute the big picture to me.

It is simply a matter of focus and desire. The players aren’t afraid of pissing someone off for losing. It is that type of fear, and a sheer hatred of losing, that drives a team down the stretch. Think back to how many close games we won last year. If the game was close with 3 min left, we all knew that UCLA would win. This year, if it’s not a blowout, it could go either way.

Finally, as concerns the game on Saturday…sure, our defense was atrocious…but Wazzu’s shooting percentage was also well, well above their average. Again, this is a matter of focus. The players thought they had won the tough game on Thursday and relented on Saturday, thinking they could cruise.

I’m just waiting for someone to get pissed off, and I nominate PAA. DC is too methodical, JS too mellow and smooth. Alfred needs to do some damage in the locker room. I know I wouldn’t want to piss him off.

But hey, what do I know. I’m just the 800 lbs bruin in the room.

by tasser10 on Feb 23, 2009 9:46 AM PST up reply actions   2 recs

don't disagree

Tasser, all good points, and I don’t really disagree. I guess if I had to point to Collison and Shipp, I would say exactly what you did—where is the killer instinct this year—when they are supposed to be the leaders. The team was different, but I will never forget, for instance, when Collison drained back breaking threes at the end of the shot clock against Kansas in the elite 8 two years ago—and his performance last season in the Second Round, among others was inspiring. Some of those were great individual plays, and key moments. It just seemed like he played with more confidence and killer instinct, a little something extra. He is still an awesome player—but I have seen less of that this year for whatever reason. Where is it? And Shipp—I personally think there is more in him, but I don’t really know why.

Anyway, I agree with what you said.

What frustrated me most about Saturday was the intensity we displayed in the last 2 minutes. We were pressuring the ball, forcing tough passes—we looked good. But where was that the previous 20 minutes?? Inexplicable to me.

by rfirpo on Feb 23, 2009 11:27 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

i am not sure that we lack

“the killer instinct” with DC. The critiques on his defense are, IMHO, legitimate…but in two of our losses he has absolutely come up big and done exactly what he needs to, only to have SPTRs make the wrong call. Although I agree with everyone who correctly observes that we should never be in these places in the first place, the last minute plays by DC have been very solid, and we would see people raving about DC’s clutch shooting…

by glassbruin on Feb 23, 2009 2:50 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

The killer instinct I speak of

is on a collective basis, not on an individual basis. DC has been great at the end of some games (except at home vs. ASU), but it is too much to ask of one single player to carry the team like that. What I expect more of from DC is active leadership, the get-in-your-face kind (in a motivating way), but I am not sure if that is his personality.

But hey, what do I know. I’m just the 800 lbs bruin in the room.

by tasser10 on Feb 24, 2009 8:46 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

I agree

I am with you, rfipo. And I agree with Tasser’s reply above. DC and Shipp appear to not have the killer instinct. DC seems to be hesitant in certain situations—perhaps it is when he is up against a tougher, more physical PG. I’m not sure and don’t have time to do much of a deep dive into this. But this hesitancy seems to hurt the whole team, on both sides of the court. I see him as the on-court leader of this team but I don’t see him stepping fully into those shoes as of yet. If I were CBH, this is probably what I would be working on with him. I think he has it in him but something is getting in the way.

Bruins Forever

by bruinsince69 on Feb 23, 2009 10:19 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

I think that almost no one is playing to his potential

At least not on defense, on a consistent basis. For example (and not to call him out) I believe that DC has ability to stay in front of his man, but he consistently gets beaten off the dribble. He has, in fact, defended quick point guards well at times, for instance, Mario Chalmers in the KU game in 2007. This year, however, he tends to reach for the steal and get out of position. It happened a few times on Thursday night, as I would scream into the tv, “stay in front; they’re whole offense is about dribble penetration. Stay in front. Don’t reach” Every time he would reach, Dentmon or Thomas was past him in a flash. DC has the potential to use his feet to maintain position and cut off dribble penetration. He often plays to less than that potential.

Part of the defensive game plan is to put the offensive players into places on the court where they are not comfortable shooting. It only takes a slight diversion. Forcing a strong right handed player to go to his left. Denying the ball at the wing and instead forcing the catch and shoot to occrur a few feet closer the baseline. Hedging and doubling aggressively. Being quick to help and recover. These are things that nearly any player is capable of doing if he has the commitment to do them.

Again, I’m not calling out DC here, but he is one example many who players who are not playing to his potential on the defensive end. I believe that if every player constantly gave full defensive effort and commitment to the principles of the defensive game plan, we could be an adequate to good defensive team. Adequate enough, anyway, not to allow WSU to score 42 points in a half, Arizona to score 49 points in one half etc. Adequate enough to survive a 5-6 minute offensive drought in each game. Adequate enough to win with excellent shooting and ball movement on offense (which are two things we generally bring to each game). Good enough to make a nice run in the tourney.

I will continue to watch the games and see whether we are putting out that type of defensive effort. It will be interesting to see if Howland does something to enforce and ensure better commitment on defense. Like starting Malcolm Lee instead of Jrue or even better, Josh. That would show commitment to defense.

Like many others, I think that Jrue is getting scapegoated for our defensive shortcomings, when DC and Josh are probably just as or more responsible for them. I’m not sure if Jrue is getting this attention because it’s easier to do than to take DC or Shipp out when they are not performing well. Perhaps this is the week in which Howland says whoever plays the hardest on defense and makes the most plays and fewest mistakes will start. That would make for an interesting week and an interesting finish to the season.

by BruinsRule on Feb 23, 2009 11:22 AM PST reply actions   1 recs

another old point worth making

in spite of everything else, i think it’s worth noting how special a defender lrmm really was and his absence could be the critical difference between this year and others. he shut his guy down and made everyone else’s defensive assignment a little bit easier

Across The Face

by rb bruin on Feb 23, 2009 1:25 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

I've been talking about missing LRMAM for a while

I think it was true 2 months ago and it will continue to be true through the end of the season no matter when that is. The guy plays a major role now as a rookie on an NBA team as a second round pick because he defends and he rebounds. Funny how those are the two things we could use a lot more of this season.

by Tydides on Feb 23, 2009 2:09 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Over hyped

and too many expectations. This is a deep but inconsistent team. Young too. In addition to losing Love, Westy and the Prince, don’t forget LMR! DC and Josh are the only returning players with significant minutes. PAA has raised his game considerably, so it is hard to complain. I just think we as fans we expecting too much. That said, we can win any game on any given night. The breakdown against WSU is perplexing. Rochestie for 33 points? WSU shooting nearly 60% for a game? Scoring 82 points? What happened to the team that torched Cal, Stanford, SC and ND in consecutive games, and bounced back from the desert debacle with a great win over the first place Huskies? Without deep knowledge of the stats, I have to go with many of the posters above and conclude it is a “mental” thing.

by Vanman7475 on Feb 23, 2009 6:42 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

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