Examining the efficiency of the Bruin lineup

by bruinhoo on Feb 28, 2009 4:38 PM PST Comment 4 comments

Or, as SJH asks, I shall deliver. The linked post raised the issue of comparison between the efficiency of our starting 5 and the bench, as well as comparing particular players on a per minute basis. In light of this, I have calculated the per minute statistics in 5 categories [points, rebounds, assists, steals and blocked shots] for each of the scholarship players on this year's roster. I will present two sets of these statistics: One set consist of the entire season to date, while the second set reflects games played since the Pac-10 opener (Pac-10 play + Notre Dame). The first set has the advantage of a larger sample size, while the latter better reflects the state of the team at this point, as well as the stronger level of competition which the team now faces.

The season-long data set:

Points/Rebounds/Assists/Steals/Blocks (per minute played)

Collison: 28 games, 31.5 mpg: 0.47    0.07    0.16    0.052    0.005
Holiday: 28 games, 26.6 mpg: 0.34    0.14    0.13    0.055    0.017
Shipp: 26 games, 28.3 mpg:    0.48    0.11    0.06    0.046    0.014
Dragovic: 27 games, 22.6 mpg: 0.39    0.16    0.06    0.036    0.015
Aboya: 28 games, 27.0 mpg:     0.37    0.22    0.02    0.030    0.008
Roll: 28 games, 17.8 mpg:         0.42    0.08    0.08    0.036    0.016
Keefe: 27 games, 15.0 mpg:     0.20    0.24    0.02    0.030    0.010
Lee: 23 games, 11.0 mpg:       0.31    0.14    0.06    0.052    0.079
Gordon: 28 games, 10.7 mpg: 0.35    0.33    0.02    0.060    0.040
Anderson: 28 games, 8.7 mpg: 0.29    0.07    0.13    0.049    0.020
Morgan: 18 games, 5.6 mpg:     0.46    0.20    0.04    0.010    0.100

The statistics dating from the start of conference play:

Points/Rebounds/Assists/Steals/Blocks (per minute played)

Collison: 16 games, 33.2 mpg: 0.45    0.07    0.14    0.041    0.004
Holiday: 16 games, 26.8 mpg:   0.29    0.13    0.14    0.042    0.012
Shipp: 16 games, 30.1 mpg:      0.48    0.09    0.06    0.031    0.015
Dragovic: 16 games, 26.3 mpg: 0.42    0.16    0.05    0.043    0.007
Aboya: 16 games, 28.2 mpg:     0.38    0.22    0.03    0.024    0.009
Roll: 16 games, 17.9 mpg:         0.39    0.06    0.07    0.042    0.021
Keefe: 15 games, 11.7 mpg:     0.18    0.23    0.01    0.021    0.007
Gordon: 16 games, 10.8 mpg: 0.33    0.26    0.02    0.052    0.029
Lee: 12 games, 8.9 mpg:           0.21    0.15    0.03    0.056    0.019
Anderson: 16 games, 7.8 mpg: 0.23    0.06    0.14    0.048    0.008
Morgan: 7 games, 3.7 mpg:       0.54    0.12    0.04    0.000    0.038

The statistics do shed light on a few areas of interest which have come up on this site form time to time. On a per-minute basis, Drew Gordon has been the team's most efficient rebounder, as well as the most efficient in creating steals and blocked shots. Josh Shipp has been the team's most efficient scorer, slightly besting DC. After a slow start to the season, Nicola Dragovic has become the team's 3rd most efficient scorer.

For all of his recent, much discussed struggles, Jrue Holiday has been the equal of DC in creating assists and steals on the defensive side of the ball. Malcolm Lee rates equal to or better than the other Bruin wings in rebounding, steals and blocked shots. James Keefe rates as the #2 rebounder on the team, but rates as the least efficient scoring threat, as well as on the lower end of the list in steals and blocks.

While the conclusions which one takes from these stats may differ, I do think that a case can be made for giving Drew Gordon and Malcolm Lee additional playing time. The trick is juggling the lineup as to minimize any harm to the team's scoring ability, while realizing the potential benefit in rebounding and in these (admittedly limited) defensive metrics.

This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of BruinsNation's (BN) editors. It does reflect the views of this particular fan though, which is as important as the views of BN's editors.

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Comments

A bit misleading

I think the statistics are great and want to thank you for the hard work on them. However, what these numbers don’t capture is that, in my opinion, JH tends to disappear in big-time situations, whereas DC is more reliable when you need points in a pinch.

By the numbers, JH is getting it done, but there are a lot of times when he makes a very untimely and costly TO. Likewise, when we’re looking to close out a game, despite the numbers, DC and JS seem to step up, while JH tends to disappear.

Just a thought.

by Bellerophon on Feb 28, 2009 4:55 PM PST reply actions 0 recs

From the numbers

I think Gordon deserves about 5-7 minutes more per game

by dokein on Feb 28, 2009 5:00 PM PST reply actions 0 recs

prefer the defense

we need the lockdown defense that hasn’t shown its face in the past two weeks. I think giving Gordon and Lee more playing time at the expense of scoring is fine.
I think Roll will be the 3 point game game changing shooter in the tournament. Lock em don on defense, then “Roll” them over with some quick 3’s.
Like ND, not love him.

Go Bruins
TRM

by G0Bruins on Feb 28, 2009 9:56 PM PST reply actions 0 recs

Great Job! and I Agree with your conclusions.

Hoo — thank you for the excellent work. I didn’t get to it until this morning because I have been swamped by something I am working on.

Beller — one thing the statistics do is diminish the value of our subjective reactions such as “JH tends to disappear”. I suppose someone with tons of time might do a minute by minute calculation — but that would still leave open the issue of what is a “big time situation”. My sense is that every possession is a big time situation and if we handle every possession like one we won’t have those dramatic moments that others see as big time.

Subjectively, in many games, I’ve had the feeling that JH disappeared, only to look at the stat’s, after the game, to see that he was there in a very consistent manner.

Although there is no stat for defensive intensity, I tend to think that our subjective analysis of who is playing hard, lock down D is worth something. And, some of the stats, like blocks and steals are valuable here. In my original post, I wondered what the difference between having DG — who I subjectively believe plays better D — in the game instead of ND — who I subjectively believed was a better scorer. I think the stat’s support those of us who would put DG in for more minutes — especially when ND is getting burned on defense and is not productive on O.

However, even though I disagree with him, somewhat, I think Beller is right in one sense. CBH must have a sense of what Beller is calling a “big-time situation” and surely puts the players on the floor that he thinks best able to handle it.

Great exercise, Hoo. Thanks for working so hard to add the depth that makes BN special.

sjh

by Class of 66 on Mar 3, 2009 5:40 AM PST reply actions 0 recs