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A Midseason Look At The Pac 10

So we sit here as January has turned to February exactly halfway through the Pac 10 season. Every team has played nine of their 18 conference games and each has played every other team in the conference once. That makes this the perfect opportunity to take a look at the past five weeks and the five weeks ahead before postseason play gets underway.

So that is where we stand right now. I think it's pretty safe to say that Arizona, Washington St., Oregon St., Stanford and Oregon are out of the race for the regular season title so it looks like a five team race for the title. Let's take a look at those five teams.

Washington- The Huskies are currently tied atop the Pac 10 with UCLA and their outlook the rest of the way is somewhat of a mixed bag. Start with the schedule where they get five of their final nine at home, but their two road trips are in Los Angeles and the Bay Area which could cause problems for the Huskies. Taking a look at their record versus other teams in contention for the title and you see UW is in pretty good shape. They beat UCLA, USC and Arizona St., but they lost to Cal. Assuming the home teams win the return trips, UW would hold the tiebreaker over Arizona St., lose the tiebreaker to Cal and have split their series' with both LA schools.

UCLA- The Bruins appear to be in decent shape as they head into the second half of conference play. Currently tied for first with the aforementioned Huskies, the Bruins also have a schedule that could be described as a mixed bag the rest of the way. UCLA gets five of their final nine games at Pauley Pavilion, but they have trips to the desert and Bay Area left on their slate. In the tiebreaker area, the Bruins look good with wins over Cal and USC, but could run into trouble as they have lost to Washington and Arizona St. with a trip to ASU still to come.

USC- After a rough start it looked like the Trojans would be in a battle for the 5th or 6th spot in the conference at best, but a recent run that has seen the win five of six has them in third place, only one game behind the conference lead. Their schedule is arguably the toughest of the contending teams as they play five of their final nine on the road with three of those five against contending teams (@ UCLA, @ ASU, @ Cal). The Trojans have wins over Cal and Arizona St., but those were both at home. Assuming the home team wins in their remaining games versus contenders, the Trojans would not hold a single tiebreaker.

Arizona St.- The Sun Devils are in a tie for fourth play in the conference, but have the opportunity to shoot way up the standings with the easiest remaining schedule of any Pac 10 team. ASU plays five of their final nine at home with one of their roadtrips at the Oregon schools, easily the conference's easiest. The Sun Devils still have to take care of business, but their schedule sets up very nicely and an easy schedule is necessary for a team two games back who's going to struggle with tiebreakers. The Sun Devils beat UCLA in Los Angeles, but lost to Cal, Washington and USC.

California- The Golden Bears are the conference's surprise team as they find themselves in the hunt for the conference title despite being picked to finish eighth. Cal is two games off the conference lead, but do get five of their final nine at home with one of their road trips to Oregon. If the Bears are going to get back atop the Pac 10 or at least within a game, they're going to have to do it in their next three when they get Washington, Washington St. and Stanford all at home. In terms of tiebreakers, the Bears beat Washington and Arizona St., but dropped contests to both UCLA and USC.

Numbers To Chew On

  • Only one player on Washington averages 30 minutes a game and that is Jon Brockman who averages exactly 30. Also, nine Huskies average at least 14 minutes a game. On the opposite side of the spectrum is USC who has four players playing 30 minutes, including Daniel Hackett at nearly 37 minutes a game. The Trojans only have seven players playing at least 11 minutes a game.
  • Some teams live by the three, other die by it. Some just don't even bother with it. Cal leads the conference with a three point percentage at 45.8% and UCLA is second at 39.5%. At the bottom of the conference is USC at 31.9%, but the Trojans only attempt 12 a game, which is a conference low. Compare that to Arizona St. who attempt 22 per contest and make a mediocre 35.9% of those. If any non-contending team is going to pull off an upset, they will likely do so with outstanding three point shooting so keep an eye on Arizona who is third in the conference in three point percentage.
  • If you want to see some points scored, check out Washington who averages a league high 80 per game, but also allows the second most in the conference at 69 per game. The only team who is in the top four in both points per games and points allowed per game is UCLA, who's second in the conference averaging 76 points a game and third in conference allowing 60.5 a game.
  • The Bruins point differential of 15.5 is the conference's best. Arizona St. is second in that category with a point differential of 12, while USC is the worst among contending teams with a point differential of 7.7. Cal has the second worst point differential among contending teams at 8.8.

Games to Watch (one midweek and one weekend game per week)

USC at UCLA (Feb. 3)- While just the first game of the second half, this game will go a long ways to clearing up the conference race a bit or making it very hectic. The Trojans are a game back of first place, but a loss to the Bruins will put them two games back and give UCLA the tiebreaker, essentially giving the Bruins a three game lead. You'd have to think USC would have no chance of making up three games with only eight to play so the Trojans need this one. A USC win and they're right in the thick of the conference race, making things very interesting. A loss and it becomes a four team race for the title.

Washington at Stanford (Feb. 8)- On a weekend devoid of top five matchups, keep an eye on this possible upset. Maples Pavilion is one of of the conference's tougher places to play and the Huskies barely escaped an upset when these two teams faced off in Seattle, winning by a single point. Washington outrebounded the Cardinal 41-25 in that contest so if Stanford can hold their own on the defensive glass, the Huskies could be in for a loss.

UCLA at Arizona St. (Feb. 12)- The Bruins will be out for revenge after blowing a late lead to the Sun Devils in Pauley Pavilion and losing in overtime, while ASU will be looking for the series sweep that would give them a huge tiebreaker. The Bruins couldn't figure out how to put points on the board against ASU's zone at the end of their last game and you can bet they'll see an equally tough Sun Devil zone in this game. Have they made the necessary adjustments to pick up a crucial road win?

USC at Arizona St. (Feb 15)- The Sun Devils will be coming off a rough game with the Bruins, but will need to muster up all their energy for another tough game versus the always physical Trojans. The Trojans held James Harden to a career low four points in Los Angeles last time around so you can bet Harden will be looking to get going early this time. It won't be easy against one of the Pac 10's tougher defenses. USC have lost their last two in Tempe. Can they find a way to pull this one out in front of what will surely be a rowdy crowd?

Washington at UCLA (Feb. 19)- The Bruins will once again find themselves in a tough midweek game. They haven't lost the opener of a Pac 10 weekend series in 32 weeks, but this will be their second consecutive tough opener. On the other side, Washington will be looking to pick up the series sweep and tiebreaker over the team they're tied atop the conference with.

Washington at USC (Feb. 21)- One of the perks of building Galen Center was that more students were supposed to show up and provide a real home court advantage. Well if the Trojans ever needed that advantage it would be here when they welcome the Huskies. Washington hasn't won at Galen Center yet, but they haven't had a team this good since the building's opening. Both teams will be coming off of games versus physical teams so this game could turn ugly, something that favors the Trojans.

Arizona St. at Washington (Feb. 26)- The Huskies went down to Tempe and beat the Sun Devils in convincing fashion earlier this year and now get a chance to sweep ASU at Hec Ed. One of the tougher places to play, Hec Ed has provided the Huskies a definite home court advantage and UW has only lost one game at home this year. Currently two games behind the Huskies and with the tiebreaker on the line, this game could decide whether ASU has a chance at the Pac 10 title.

UCLA at Cal (Feb. 28)- On the final day of February the Bruins will head to Haas Pavilion looking to clinch the tiebreaker over the Bears while Cal will be looking to beat UCLA at home for the first time since 2004. Cal point guard Jerome Randle had six of Cal's 21 turnovers when they lost at Pauley Pavilion so you can bet that ball security will be a point of emphasis for Mike Montgomery in the days leading to this matchup. College Gameday will at in Berkeley for this matchup and it will be on ESPN in primetime so it will be an opportunity for both teams to not only pick up a key conference win, but make an impression with selection committee members only two weeks before Selecton Sunday.

Cal at Arizona (Mar. 5)- As I pointed out earlier, Arizona's three point shooting makes them a dangerous team and having to play them in Tucson is not easy. The Bears haven't won in Tucson in over a decade so they have history working against them as well. It's very easy to imagine the Bears entering this final weekend with a chance at the conference crown only to see them lose in Tucson and enter the final Saturday with their name out of the picture.

Cal at Arizona St. (Mar. 7)- If the Bears still have a chance entering their final game, it won't be an easy one. You can expect ASU to be in the hunt on the final weekend and you can get Wells Fargo Arena will be packed and loud on this Saturday. Even if the Bears fall to Arizona and are out of the conference title race they could play the role of spoiler. Their three point percentage makes them extremely dangerous and if they put in a few early they could quiet the ASU crowd.

That's where we stand with five weeks to go. It should be awfully interesting with so much to play out and so many teams in the hunt. Enjoy the race to the finish line and as always GO BRUINS!!

 

This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of BruinsNation's (BN) editors. It does reflect the views of this particular fan though, which is as important as the views of BN's editors.

1 recs  |  Comment 11 comments |

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Great work rye

Enjoyed reading the breakdown.

by Nestor on Feb 3, 2009 6:19 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

Excellent Rye!

Yet another reason I don’t need the MSM.

sjh

by Class of 66 on Feb 4, 2009 5:40 AM PST reply actions   0 recs

It may well be that Rye is one of Doh!'s sources

Rye always generates good, fact-based stuff and his opinions are always backed by clear analysis (except when he disagrees with me, but he’s just a kid so what can you expect.) I would not be surprised if Rye is one of Doh!‘s sources even if he doesn’t know it.

by Fox 71 on Feb 4, 2009 7:14 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

In other words,

we have the fact catcher in the Rye?

by Bruinut on Feb 5, 2009 1:37 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Cal will have a tough time

The Bears end with USC and UCLA at home (toughest pair to face at home), followed by a trip to the desert, where Arizona is 4-1 and ASU will be seeking revenge. If Cal doesn’t start the 2nd half 5-0, they may be on the outside looking in on selection Sunday.

I can’t tell where we’re going to end up. I think the most likely scenario is an 8-1 finish, but anywhere from 5-4 to 9-0 is possible. It will be a fun ride.

by BruinsRule on Feb 4, 2009 7:59 AM PST reply actions   0 recs

The Obama effect

If there’s a spoiler, it may be OSU, which hasn’t lost since the inauguration, with wins over Stanford and Cal in addition to gimmes against Oregon and Bakersfield. I don’t see an NCAA bid, but there could be more upsets along the way with that Princeton offense, and it’ll be interesting to see how well the Beavers host the Arizona schools this weekend.

by Herodotus on Feb 4, 2009 8:11 AM PST reply actions   0 recs

Hot Water Coach

CBH and Lorenzo are leading the conference, Bennett has done so well that the only question is whether he feels like staying in Pullman, Sendak has restored his program, Montgomery has started restoring his, and Robinson not only has started restoring his but may be conference coach of the year. Dawkins is new so will get some time to show his ability or lack thereof. Floyd brings in one-and-dones so he will get another chance to do so unless the NCAA actually busts him for the rulebreaking that is pretty much common knowledge. Of course Arizona has an interim coach, so he doesn’t count as “hot seat”. So who does that leave on the “hot seat”? Why Ernie Kent, of course, who couldn’t land Kevin Love whose father (Oregon alum) wanted no part of him and who did absolutely nothing to control assaults, harassment, and threats by his students against the Love family. He had a good run for a while, but a couple years ago was on the “hot seat” and now that Robinson is upstaging him in the state, I’m sure the athletic dept. wishes it had let him go back then. The only suspense is whether he “resigns” or is fired, and whether it happens during the season or right after.

by ucla7477 on Feb 4, 2009 5:33 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

No way

I think Ernie Kent is a great coach. He should stay at Oregon a long long time. But if they were to let him go, I think Steve Lavin would be a great replacement.

But hey, what do I know. I’m just the 800 lbs bruin in the room.

by tasser10 on Feb 5, 2009 9:03 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Why not Lavin in Tucson?

We should place him where he can be of greatest benefit to us!

by ucla7477 on Feb 5, 2009 5:08 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Actually

He is perfect for JustSC. He belongs in a low mid-major caliber program.

by Nestor on Feb 5, 2009 6:20 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

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