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Thoughts on Luck...and Clutch Players

Bumped. GO BRUINS. -N

The last few days I have been thinking about the role of "luck" in college basketball. Personally I want to make the case that "luck" has caused some of the MSM and maybe even some on BN to underestimate DC's role as a clutch player, and a go-to player down the stretch.  

Listen to Cal's Mike Montgomery after the game. 

''That's why (Collison) is what he is,'' Montgomery said. ''The ability to make a play in late clock is probably what separates UCLA from a lot of people. Collison is such a clutch player, and he makes plays in critical situations. In late clock, he's as good as there is.''

So an opposing coach (who personally I don't think is just saying nice things about us after the game --- this is a genuine belief) - views DC as one of the best in the game in closing plays.  Yet in general people don't have the confidence that our team has the closers to finish the games...I have to admit, I feel the same way for the most part...and with this team for whatever reason, like others, I don't have the secure feeling during a close game that I had in times past.  And have been sympathetic with the argument that in addition to our teams lack of defense, we struggle with having a "closer" or the go-to-person who can close out a game.

After thinking about it, and watching this game against Cal in particular, I believe the reason for our lack of confidence is exclusively due to our poor defense this year and not the lack of a clutch player, or players.  It is understandable that we might feel this way --- we lost close games to ASU (61-58 OT), ASU (74-67), and WSU (82-81).  But I don't think we lost these games because of the lack of clutch plays.  In some (the second ASU game) we had clutch plays that SPTR eliminated.  In others, our defense didn't stand firm and the other team had a Curry-type inspired player (WSU).  But our guys really did ok in the clutch.  If Collison gets the ASU call, and if Rochestie misses one shot, we are in sole possession of 1st place, and a top ten team.  And those things, IMHO, are due more to "luck" than the clutch play of our players.  

The only way to beat "luck" is defense.  Our problem is not the lack of clutch players, we have them in Collison, Shipp, and Aboya.  These guys have time and time again done what it takes at the critical times.  The fall-offs have been in the critical defensive stops, and there it takes five players to stop it from happening.  We had it in the past.  We will have it in the future.  Hopefully these guys will get better as the tournaments come.  

The nice thing about luck is that it can produce a run.  Lute's Wildcats had a national championship and it wasn't because of their defense.  If we're in Vegas, you don't bet on that run, but it doesn't mean it can't happen.  I am hopeful that a combination of better defense and better luck will enable us to make a run.  And am glad with CBH at the helm that year over year we don't leave things to chance by having a defense that survives bouts of bad luck.  But I am not going to wish for a clutch player this year, because we have three of them.  

This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of BruinsNation's (BN) editors. It does reflect the views of this particular fan though, which is as important as the views of BN's editors.

7 recs  |  Comment 11 comments

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Another good post glass

The reason why I haven’t felt the same confidence in our team in closing mins like I did with the ones in last few years is because defense (not offense).

When kids like AA, LRMAM, and RW were not getting it done on the offense side, they focused on locking down on the defensive end. They locked down and attacked, went after every rebounds … leading to points on the other end of the court. I haven’t sensed that from this team yet except for in spurts. Perhaps last night will provide that added confidence but we will see.

Still considering everything, I think we are having a solid season.

by Nestor on Mar 1, 2009 9:32 AM PST reply actions   0 recs

DC was a Manimal last night!

I checked out the game with a friend last night in Santa Monica. We went through some gut check moments when the game was tight, but time and time again we roared when DC made some beautiful and clutch play. By the end of the night we were having “Collison” moments and “feeling our Collisons.”

Basically we had a lot of fun thanks to our floor general.

A coach is someone who can give correction without causing resentment. John Wooden

by MexiBruin on Mar 1, 2009 9:44 AM PST reply actions   0 recs

he had a saucy second half on both ends

at halftime i told myself, i felt the only way we’d pull this out was for dc to pick it up. i think he had 6pts and randle had 11. he came out and played much better on the defensive end and he looked committed to taking it to the hoop which is when he plays his best., awesome performance.
and on a sidepoint, aboya needs to pass on his free throw routine to malcolm lee. aboya was a miserable shooter from the stripe and this yr has turned himself into a very solid shooter. lee is shooting in the 30’s which is inexcusable- it’s bozemanesque. those two yesterday were embarassingly bad
and finally, talking about aboya, i gave this guy as much grief and had the least amount of confidence as possible- but he has been very effective and has been the most consistent and steadying player this year. he may have played himself into a legit shot at making an nba team… aboya, i love you dog!

Across The Face

by rb bruin on Mar 1, 2009 10:36 AM PST reply actions   0 recs

Sizzling posts today!

Sure am glad I stopped by.

by snorkeldorf on Mar 1, 2009 1:44 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

Thomas Jefferson once noted that the harder he worked, the luckier he got.

I guess the same could be said for our Bruins.

by chenalex on Mar 1, 2009 8:18 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

Coach once said:

"Understand that the harder you work, the more luck you will have."

Interesting how great minds think alike.

by Gen2Bruin1987 on Mar 1, 2009 10:05 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

Great Post!

This season, it really does come down to D.

If we play solid D at the end of close games, our clutch players will make the shots — from the field or the FT line (PAA’s 4 straight).

I think more importantly, it comes down to early game D. When we don’t play it, we end up in close games that should never be close. We cannot give away 10 point leads and then have to battle back and depend on clutch play.

Glass — a really spot on post.

sjh

by Class of 66 on Mar 2, 2009 6:36 AM PST reply actions   0 recs

3 of our 7 losses were by three points or less

meaning they were single possession games that could have gone either way.

All of our wins were more than one possession wins.

This team could just as easily be 24-4.

But I do disagree with you a bit. I did see earlier in the season (but not so much in the last month) a tendancy to get really lost on offense and just run down the clock and not run the offense late in games. I think that was responsible for the first ASU loss and the Michigan loss. However, the last month has been mostly about defense, and I think some of it has to do with the starting lineup. I am not going to single out a single player, but I do believe there are players but our defensive talent just isn’t as good as it has been the last three years. Coaching can only do so much with limited talent. We have good pieces, but we do not have a dominant starting 5 defensively.

"when you've seen how big the world is, how can you make due with this?"

by silverlakebruin on Mar 2, 2009 3:43 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

One set of initials makes your point --

LRMM.

To a very great extent, he was the difference between the previous D and this year’s.

It’s that simple. He played better than his replacement and covered for the weaknesses in others.

sjh

by Class of 66 on Mar 2, 2009 5:25 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Creating Luck

is the result of great defense. Just look to the Gonzaga game couple of years ago; it’s is a great picture of defensive pressure creating the “I don’t believe it” scream.

by lunabruin on Mar 2, 2009 6:33 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

Playing good defense

down the stretch is just as “clutch” as scoring down the stretch. But as we’ve all noticed, the guys who make the defensive mistakes are not usually any of our 3 seniors…

But hey, what do I know. I’m just the 800 lbs bruin in the room.

by tasser10 on Mar 2, 2009 11:06 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

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