UCLA v. VCU: By The Numbers

by bruinhoo on Mar 19, 2009 4:35 AM PDT

Bumped. GO BRUINS. -N

For those of you that were not around at tournament time last year, I wrote up a series of posts, one before each game, looking at the numbers underlying the performance of our upcoming opponent, with a strong focus on Pomeroy and Sagarin's ratings and adjusted statistics. As this seemed to create good mojo last year (through the first two weeks, at least), I thought that I would try again.

As has been the subject of much discussion on this site since Sunday night, we will be facing VCU tomorrow night in Philly. I will leave talk of seeding and upsets for other posts.

Virginia Commonwealth University (VCU) enters the tournament with a 24-9 record, having won the Colonial Athletic Association regular season and tournament championships. VCU defeated Georgia State, ODU, and George Mason to earn the CAA's automatic bid, and the east region's 11 seed. The Rams are riding a 5 game win streak, following a Bracketbusters loss @ Nevada on February 20.

VCU has played 2 games against NCAA tourney teams: a 73-69 home win vs. Akron, and an 81-70 loss to Oklahoma in Oklahoma City. The Bruins and Rams share no common opponents.

Now to the numbers...

RPI UCLA: #33, VCU: #50

Pomeroy Rating UCLA: #9, VCU: #56

Sagarin Rating UCLA: #17, VCU: #74

One of the things that quickly comes to mind when looking at the various computer ratings is where we rate compared to our seeding, and the variance between the RPI and other computer ratings when it comes to UCLA. While I expect a hard fought game on both sides, which likely will be close throughout, it is not the tossup-to-clear upset pick that many in the press would like us to believe. VCU is a good team, but a win tomorrow would be a major upset.

Next is a look at the efficiency metrics and pace of play for the Bruins and VCU.

VCU

* Offense: 108.0 points/100 possessions (#74 in D-1)

* Defense: 93.6 points/possession (#49 in D-1)

* Pace: 67.1 possessions/40 minutes

VCU's pace of play most closely approximates Cal among this season's UCLA opponents, though VCU's defensive metrics rate better than those of Cal (along with a weaker offense)

UCLA

* Offense: 120.9 points/100 possessions (#3 in D-1)

* Defense: 92.6 points/100 possessions (#41 in D-1)

* Pace: 66.6 possessions/40 minutes

Using the above efficiency measures, together with the average pace of the two teams' play, the average game score of each team, based upon an equal schedule composed of average Division 1 teams would be:

VCU: 72-63

UCLA: 81-62

This game will be a much greater opening round test than our Bruins are used to, only Josh Shipp among this year's players has played a 1st round game against anything but a lower-tier automatic qualifier. Tomorrow will not be the light warmup that we have become accustomed to the past 3 seasons.

Pomeroy is projecting a 75-66 Bruin victory, with a 20% chance of VCU pulling the upset, while Sagarin's formula predicts a 7-8 point UCLA win. A close 1st round game, which could be thrown into question by another lackadaisical start, or DC's health status.

This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of BruinsNation's (BN) editors. It does reflect the views of this particular fan though, which is as important as the views of BN's editors.

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Comments

Excellent

hoo, I am crossing my fingers you have to do another one of these on Friday afternoon (and hopefully beyond).

by Nestor on Mar 18, 2009 6:48 PM PDT reply actions

All I can say is

We need to control and protect the ball. No risky passes against their full court press. Just solid fundamentals, and our size strength and experience advantages should shine through.

If DC is injured, I’d like to see JH and JA get a little more play time. Fortunately this year, we have a plethora of ball handlers. But, freshmen against the press is certainly not an appetizing prospect, so I’m crossing my fingers and hoping DC is good to go.

by blinkshot on Mar 18, 2009 7:00 PM PDT reply actions

Numbers

The more I look at these (and other) numbers, the more it appears that we should win this game IF we play our solid defense and our efficient offense. IF…

That’s why the game is played on the court and not on paper. What it comes down to it which UCLA team makes the trip. It’s in our hands.

I’m ready. Jump ball!!

LET’S GO BRUINS!!

greg in denver - UCLA guy for life

by gbruin on Mar 18, 2009 7:11 PM PDT reply actions

Ahhhh, hoo and his stats

I love them. I always feel so much more informed after I read them. Imagine what would happen if the MSM put together these types of things? They might actually be worth watching/reading/listening to.

by Ryan Rosenblatt on Mar 18, 2009 7:18 PM PDT reply actions

This isn't something that can be boiled down

into a 15 second clip and then recapped with a bad pun or stupid joke at the end. It is not MSM material.

by Tydides on Mar 18, 2009 7:29 PM PDT up reply actions

It takes up less space than Simers' column

by Ryan Rosenblatt on Mar 18, 2009 8:08 PM PDT up reply actions

Earlier this season

There was a fan post about why we follow Bruin Athletics, and how do our expectations temper our enjoyment of the games. I said it then, and I’ll say it again:

I prefer where we are now; the uncertainty of what is going to happen. I’m excited by the possibilities of what this team can accomplish. I’m fearful of what can happen if they lose their focus.

I don’t enjoy games as much when we are prohibitive favorites expected to make the Final Four OR MORE. I feel like the monkey is of my (ours?) back. Maybe this is why I feel our guys are going to pull together and do some damage. I feel loose. I’m ready to play. Let’s do it.

PLAY BALL!

A coach is someone who can give correction without causing resentment. John Wooden

by MexiBruin on Mar 18, 2009 9:28 PM PDT reply actions