Re. Jrue Holiday Testing (NBA) Waters

by Nestor on Mar 31, 2009 10:00 PM PDT in Basketball

In case you missed it bruinponcho fanshotted the news coming out from Bruin Report Online re. JH. From the public portion of BRO's subscription based report:

Holiday to Put Name in NBA Draft

The freshman guard and his parents will meet with Howland today to tell him he's testing the waters.

As of right now I have not seen any confirmation of that specific report. The only thing we have is the following note from Dohn before the meeting took place on Tuesday:

I talked to Shawn Holiday, the father of UCLA freshman guard Jrue Holiday, this morning and he said no decision has been made as to whether he will enter the NBA draft.
"No, it has not been made,'' Shawn said. "Nothing yet.''
Shawn said an appointment has not yet been made to meet with Holiday and his family.
"We haven't really discussed it much,'' Shawn said. "We took last week off to chill. We're supposed to schedule an appointment with (Howland) later this week.''

So we don't really know for sure yet whether the meeting took place.

Anyway, whether or not the meeting take place, I think it's a forgone conclusion (if I am reading the tealeaves right based on what we have heard about JH to date) that he will "test" the NBA waters. And if he does once again here are the two dates to keep in mind:

April 26: Deadline for JH and other underclassmen around the country to declare eligibility for the summer's NBA Draft.
June 15: Deadline for JH and other other underclassmen to pull out of the NBA draft (provided that an agent has not been hired by the player). If an agent is hired, game is over.

While all of this unfolds, I am not really going to pay attention to the NBA draft sites because I don't think none of that projections really matter. What really matters are the evaluations of actual NBA team scouts who don't write lot of these joke draft sites. Moreover, none of those evaluations will matter to players who are going to make their decisions based on their own individual circumstances (advices they get from their families, "handlers" and coaches). Plus the fact that JH will likely "test" the NBA waters even after not so spectacular freshman season, means that he will most likely jump if he gets some kind of assurance from an NBA team.

Yes, we all know JH will likely benefit if he comes back and spends another year under Howland learning to play defense. We know that will probably benefit him in the long run and position him better for that second K in the NBA. But usually in this kind of situations our opinions don't matter as it is all up to the players and their immediate families. I wish JH luck no matter what he decides to do but I don't think I am going to obsess over his decision making process on a day to day basis unless something major breaks and let it all play out like we have done previously here on BN. We are going to sit back and chill while all this "testing the water" song and dance gets played out over next few weeks. As we have said all along, no matter what happens we are in good shape under Howland.

GO BRUINS.

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Keep this in mind

It doesn’t matter what the consensus on Holiday is. It doesn’t matter if nearly every team doesn’t like him. All it takes is one team to love him and give him a guarantee in the lottery.

by Ryan Rosenblatt on Mar 31, 2009 10:02 PM PDT reply actions

Are you saying that you think he'll only go as a guaranteed lottery pick?

I’ll reveal my ignorance. I don’t know how many lottery picks there are, but do you (or the experts or the guys who just make things up) think that he would be drafted that high? Is he one of the top 15 (or 20) players available? I don’t think so, but I have never seen him play in person and only a few times on TV. So my question is whether the consensus is that he would only go as a lottery pick rather than take his chances as an “at large” candidate.

I think another factor is his perception (or his financial advisor’s perception) of what he could get in his first two contracts if he came out now, versus what he would get waiting a year. The salaries are so gigantic that he may think that it would be better to grab the brass ring now, even if there might be a higher one later. A lower amount now is still probably a mind-boggling number to a kid his age.

One thing we know for sure, though, is that he will get Coach Howland’s honest perspective based on what the coach thinks would be best for Jrue.

by Fox 71 on Mar 31, 2009 10:16 PM PDT up reply actions

Fox

Remeber the chance of injuries.

by 10amla on Apr 1, 2009 3:17 AM PDT up reply actions

I wasn't clear

I think he’ll go even if he’s not guaranteed a lottery slot, and even if he’s guaranteed nothing. I don’t understand these things, but apparently the big bucks is in the second contract. The theory for him staying is that he’ll get $ the first contract and $$$$ the second contract. He may be thinking $ the first one and $$ the second one is still an enormous amount of money, and I don’t want to risk an injury or risk not having my stock rise enough to defer that first $ contract.

If I were him, I think I would take the money. Even a modicum of prudence by these guys will leave them and their families financially set for the rest of their lives. And of course, he may get the bigger contract anyway.

by Fox 71 on Apr 1, 2009 4:39 AM PDT up reply actions

Agreed

I think he will probably go. He could still go high this year off of potential alone. If he stays another year and has another lukewarm season (nevermind injury, how many basketball players coming out of college have career ending/threatening injuries these days? It’s not football!), his draft slot next year will be based more on actual production, which wouldn’t be good for him. If that were the case this year, he would definitely go undrafted.

by westwood78 on Apr 1, 2009 9:03 AM PDT up reply actions

Note re Doh!'s report

Interesting to see a source and actual quotes. I have no bone to pick with Doh! when he reports like this. It’s when he bases a story on “sources” who he won’t name that gets me riled up.

by Fox 71 on Mar 31, 2009 10:17 PM PDT reply actions

And, more importantly, note Nestor's Source -- Tea Leaves

I think Nestor has given us a far more honest source label than “wealthy alum I had dinner with”, “influential toady whose claims of self-importance and knowledge I choose to believe” or “friend who overheard an important person in the loo, two stalls over, talking to Coach Robinson’s brother in law”.

Nestor, I’ll trust your reading of the leaves over anonymous sources, any day.

sjh

by Class of 66 on Apr 1, 2009 5:02 AM PDT up reply actions

good luck

jrue

by tajcarny on Apr 1, 2009 12:04 AM PDT reply actions

NBA

I’m not a scout, and I don’t pretend to be. I do know that JH has the frame/length/ability that NBA teams love. I also didn’t see him as an NBA caliber player last year. His skills might translate better to the NBA game though, so whether he is/is not a lottery/1st round pick is a question that I can’t answer.

I do hope he stays. I don’t think JH looked comfortable on the court last year when he was playing off the ball. He always seemed tentative on the court, and it would be fun to watch him run the show like he did in high school. He definitely had flashes of his talent, i.e. when he carried us for a period against VCU, which I would like to see over the course of a full season.

One thing I do wonder about is how much of an impact will the NBA’s finances play on decisions this year. I know the first contract is not the prize, and I wouldn’t blame someone for trying to get the clock running for the second contract, so to speak. I don’t even know if the NBA has approached the PA about reigning in contracts a bit. Any body more informed?

by AllHailMightyBruins on Apr 1, 2009 8:14 AM PDT reply actions

Jrue and NBA $$$

The thing that people need to keep in mind with NBA rookie contracts is that there is a fixed rookie scale. You can view the scale here. What this means is that if JH stays in the draft this year and is drafted somewhere in the 10-20 range (his likely destination), he would earn somewhere between 1.78 to 1.06 million in his first year (using the 2008-09 numbers). If he were to come back to school and improve his stock to say the 5th pick in the 2010 draft, he would be due a salary around 2.63 million. I say “around” because the scale changes every year and agents can “negotiate” up to 120% of the scale amount (which really means the scale is 120% since all teams agree to the higher amount).

The NBA’s current Collective Bargaining Agreement expires in the summer of 2011 and both the Owners and the Union have hinted about a lockout unless changes are made. This most likely means that contracts signed after 2011 will be less than those signed before then. This really doesn’t matter too much for JH because he will still be under his rookie contract that year regardless if he comes out this year or next.

Since first round picks rookie contracts are automatically for 2 years plus another 2 years of team options and then a qualifying offer after that (this all may change after 2011, but not in the players favor), the idea that the real money is in the second contract is not very valid. Sure if you are a good player you will get a bump up in salary. But look at a player like Adam Morrison. He will be making 5.27 million next season and then after that, the Lakers would have to make him a qualifying offer of 6.897 million to retain him as a restricted free agent. There is no way any team would pay him that much money. Thus, there is a benefit to staying in school another year for JH since for many players the first contract is the biggest contract they will ever get.

by bruinponcho on Apr 1, 2009 9:05 AM PDT up reply actions 1 recs

Thanks

I was wondering if going out this year would help JH get to the second contract prior to the CBA expiration, and it appears not.

by AllHailMightyBruins on Apr 1, 2009 1:54 PM PDT up reply actions

Informative

Great info, thank you. I don’t follow NBA at all so forgive me, but with the Morrison example, if the Lakers drop him after next season because the salary is too high, what is he likely to be paid?

Looking at these numbers really makes me question why JH would ever want to stick around. Making vast assumptions, let’s say he’d be the 15th overall pick if he enters this year and the 5th overall next year. This means he’d be making big improvements and would likely do well enough in the NBA to get a third year contract. If he enters this year, his first year salary is basically all a bonus. He makes 1398.2+1503.1+1608 = 4509.3 in his first three years. On the other hand, he makes 2812.2+3023.1=5835.3 waiting for next year’s draft and getting the fifth pick salary for 2010-11 rookies, for two years.

This is a considerable difference in pay (1326), but it’s making the huge assumption that he will improve beyond what the current estimate of his potential is. If he stays and performs up to expectations, he remains around a 15th pick next year and loses a year of pay (1443.3). Then again, he could easily perform below expectations next college year and lose his first round status altogether, taking a huge pay cut and losing the guaranteed two-year contract.

I’m just trying to figure out these numbers based on what you’ve written, so I may have made some faulty assumptions. But I thought it was worth messing around with the numbers.

by gradstudentbruin on Apr 2, 2009 5:01 AM PDT up reply actions

Large Opportunity Cost for Staying

so he question is whether he makes it up in the second or second and third years.

Seems to me, if all he wants is short term money, he goes.

If he wants to get better in an attempt to ensure more years (not get into a Morrison situation) he may stay.

If he has DC’s depth and character, he stays, goes to school, enjoys college, learns something, graduates and then goes.

sjh

by Class of 66 on Apr 2, 2009 4:40 PM PDT up reply actions

I agree with N.

I think Holiday is going, so this isn’t all that surprising. I also agree that we are going to be fine regardless.

Based on what we saw from Holiday last year, I can’t even say how big a loss it would be if he goes—because he was just ok. True, he could break-out next year (and it may even be likely that he will). But, that is no guarantee. In a weird way, his so-so play (based on the hype) makes it easier for me to let him go.

All that said, I certainly still hope that he stays.

by rfirpo on Apr 1, 2009 8:35 AM PDT reply actions

i hope he stays but if he's going to go

i hope he finalizes his decision soon. i know there probably isn’t another westbrook out there, but might help to be able to recruit another guard. our team could be pretty good next year if 2 or 3 of those freshmen are more ready to contribute immediately than this years class.

anyway good luck jrue!

by realfabfive on Apr 1, 2009 8:52 AM PDT reply actions

First Round or Bust

Jrue would be foolish to leave without a first-round guarantee. While the draft this year won’t be showcasing the type of talent as last year’s crop, the one position with a glut of prospects happens to be point guard: Ricky Rubio, Brandon Jennings, Jeff Teague, Ty Lawson, Eric Maynor, Darren Collison, and you might even have to put Stephon Curry in that group since there’s no way he’s playing the 2 in the league. Rubio’s a proven talent on the international level. Jennings was rated higher than Jrue coming out of high school, and while Jrue was inconsistent playing out of position this year, Jennings was running the point playing with men in Europe. Lawson, Maynor, and Collison are proven college point guards. Teague and Jrue have similar games, the only difference is that Teague is a year older and has actually played point guard in college. Stephon Curry isn’t a point guard but will have to play the position in the NBA. Someone will take a chance on the natural scorer with the sweet stroke.

Where does Jrue rank among that group? He’d be rated pretty high based on potential, but there’s an aspect to that potential that I would find disconcerting. Whenever Jrue’s draft prospects are discussed, Russell Westbrook is usually brought up because Westbrook was a combo guard who was drafted as a point guard with limited experience in that role. The difference between the two is that Westbrook rose out of relative obscurity in Coach Howland’s program to become the highest drafted Bruin since Baron Davis. Westbrook’s stock was skyrocketing going into the draft, but Jrue’s has been plunging for some time now. Holiday came to the program hyped up as the best UCLA guard since Baron, and now he’s at a juncture where he’s living off whatever is left of the hype because his game on the court did not match it.

Westbrook was drafted into the perfect situation: Seattle was moving to a new city that didn’t care that they were rebuilding the worst team in the league, they already had superstar-in-the-making Kevin Durant, and Earl Watson was already there to help Westbrook along the way. Westbrook is the exception, and I’m so happy he’s doing very well in OKC. Jrue and his family are going to have to decide what their priorities are. If the goal is just to make it to the league, then they’re already there. But, if the goal is to last in the league, then there are a lot of factors that Coach Howland will help them see as beneficial to Jrue’s longterm growth as a player.

Jrue’s play this year left a lot to be desired, and a solid year running the point could make him a top 5 pick next year whereas this year he’s on the cusp of being a first-rounder with a guaranteed contract. I hope he elects to ply his trade one more year at school to get the scouts salivating again.

by ishXdavid on Apr 1, 2009 8:55 AM PDT reply actions 1 recs