UCLA Football will win the National Championship this Year!
by westwood78 on Jul 22, 2009 4:38 PM PDT
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PrintOkay, now that I have your attention, and have lost all credibility in your eyes, let me withdraw that previous statement. No, they will not win the championship THIS year, but they won't be nearly as bad as most prognosticators project. Of course, as a Bruin, my viewpoint may be a little skewed, but just for kicks and giggles, humor me for a second.
Let me also add that most are reviewing this upcoming UCLA football season from a worst case scenario (of course, I understand everyone's reason for being cautiously optimistic, but caution was one of the numerous undoings of Dorrell), which I am not. Definitely, best case scenario here! Afterall, look at the circumstances surrounding last season - a new coaching staff, a gimpy running back, a Junior transfer at QB with a month of experience in the system, working with a patchwork O-line constructed from converted tight ends, defensive tackles, bubble gum, and left over scrap metal from the set of Robocop 3! Wasn't winning 4 games (with 3 of those coming at home) a best-case scenario? Here is a peek at the upcoming schedule:
2009 Schedule
vs. SDSU
@Tennessee
vs. Kansas State
@ Stanford
vs. Oregon
vs. Cal
@ Arizona
@ Oregon State
vs. Washington
@ Washington State
vs. Arizona State
@ USC
Follow me after the jump for a season breakdown, game by game...
Overview: UCLA looks to have a better season this year, with many predicting anywhere from a 5-7 to a 7-5 mark. Looking at the favorable schedule that we have this season (5 of the 6 home contests are winnable games), the team having an offseason to digest Norm Chow's scheme, and a rigorous offseason of hitting the weights, and its difficult not to me a bit more optimistic coming into this season. Two of UCLA's eight losses last year came against bowl teams that will not be on the upcoming schedule (BYU-10-2 & Fresno St.7-5). These opponents have been replaced by non-bowlers Kansas State (5-7 last season) & San Diego State (2-10, 1-7 in the Mountain West). We head into Knoxville against a weak Tennessee team that we defeated last season, and many of the teams in the Pac-10 are replacing their all-world QBs with unproven backups. This all proves to be an unpredictable mixture, but here goes anyways.
Predictions:
W vs. SDSU - last year, this was 10-2 BYU (technically, Tennessee was the season opener, but SDSU replaced BYU on our schedule) in this slot. Not much else needs to be said about the 59-0 beatdown that we suffered at the hands of BYUin Provo last year. For fans, coaches, God, etc., it is a breath of fresh air to see SDSU on the schedule. No game is truly a gimme for us this year, but look for us to take care of business at home in our season opener.
L @Tennessee- While we did win this matchup last season, it is asking a lot of our gutty Bruins to go into raucous Neyland Stadium in September (when the 100,000+ fans still have hope for the season) and come out with a victory. This will definitely be a game that we have a chance to win, and them losing two of their top wideouts to injury helps, but I just don't think that we get it done.
W vs. Kansas State- 5-7 Kansas State heads into Westwood looking to take down the Bruins. They bring with them a sub-par rushing attack and an attrocious defense that allowed 30 or more points 9 times last season, giving up chunks of yards by both ground and air. This bodes well for a UCLA team with a top notch defense (that NCAA 2010 completely overlooked-another story, another day), and an offense that could find its way against the "Mildcat" d.
W@ Stanford- Both teams come into the season much improved. This game could go either way against Harbaugh's up and coming Stanford team. Our cast of running backs, in conjunction with our fortified o-line, should best the 2.3 yards per carry output from last year's 23-20 victory. Our main problem in that game though was not our rushing attack, but rather, the 250 yards rushing that we allowed. With Gerhart back for his senior season, this could spell trouble for our guys. Fortunately for us, Tavita Pritchard had 51 yards passing in the game, allowing us to hold off the Cardinal for a victory. If we can find a way to slow the running game just a bit, we should be able to take this one. Our upgrade at defensive end (Datone Jones), and our stronger (Reggie Carter going from 220 to 240 lbs- hey, he got past testing!) and more athletic (upgrade from John Hale to Akeem Ayers) linebacking corps says that we are up to the task.
W vs. Oregon- Another game that could go either way. Last year, we came into Eugene 2-3, gave it everything that we had, and came up just short, 24-31. Once again, our lackluster rushing attack and defense against the run spelled doom for the Bruins. Craft had an admirable 288 yards, 1TD, & 1 Int on 43 attempts, but you cannot win when your QB has to put the ball in the air 43 times...and his last name is Craft (cheapshot, this loss wasn't his fault)! With a more balanced offensive attack and the hopes that their QB Masoli doesn't put up 200 yards rushing on us again (he can't do that again, right?), I like our chances (SEE strong, athletic LB Corp).
L vs. Cal- Two words. Jahvid Best!
W @ Arizona- Tuitama(3000+yards passing, 23 TDs) is gone. So to is his go to WR Mike Thomas (74-826-4). Unfortunately, Nic Grigsby will be returning, looking to best a 1153 yard, 13 touchdown performance last season. But without Tuitama, Grigsby could be seeing 8 men in the box to stop the run, forcing sophomore Matt Scott to beat them with the pass...and that is where Al Verner and his brethren come into play! At home, we take this game.
L @ Oregon State- Two more words. Jacquizz Rodgers! 144 yards on us last year makes me a believer that it could happen again. Add to this the fact that this is a road game against a team that should have been the Pac-10 champs last year if not for the game that they mailed in last year against a strong but beatable Ducks squad, and it doesn't look good for us.
W vs. Washington- Nuff Said!
W @ Washington State- Ditto!
W vs. Arizona State- ASU's MVP in last season's matchup was a QB who threw 3 touchdowns to ASU " receivers", leading them to a 34-9 victory (I was at that game. A sad day indeed.). Drumroll please...that QB was none other than UCLA's own, Kevin Craft who threw 3 interceptions, all returned for touchdowns by ASU's defense! Unlucky for them, he will be on the bench for the rematch. If it were up to me, he'd be in street clothes in the student section!
L @ USC- I still think that we are a year away in this game. The only thing that helps us is the fact that they are starting a brand new QB as well. Unfortunately, he would have an entire season under his belt by this time. It is not impossible, and stranger things have happened (does 9-13 ring a bell to anyone?), but realistically, it probably won't happen this time. Add to this, the fact that we could be potentially riding a 3-game streak into this game, takes away the "caught 'em by surprise" factor.
Is all of this based on a best-case scenario? Yes! But I hold that the best case will happen because of the circumstances and motivation surrounding our team. We have a huge chip on our shoulders because of our crosstown rivals, leaving us with a lot to prove. Our O-line play was horrible last year because of the poor recruiting efforts of Dorrell (didn't bring in an offensive lineman in his last two years at UCLA) and injury, and should be much improved this year. Neu & Chow are tuned in because they want to prove the critics wrong, and more importantly, we are on the cusp of being perennial players in the recruiting game once again. In addition, the improvements on offense spell relief for our defense. Anyone watching last year knows that the bulk of the ugly numbers allowed by our defense were the result of a host of 3 & outs and ints that put our defense in sticky situations time and time again (save for the ASU game where Craft & the Offense was gracious enough to give our defense a break by allowing the d to score on all 3 picks). All of this spells a dream season for UCLA! Now that I have you all riled up, the line is open for comments!
This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of BruinsNation's (BN) editors. It does reflect the views of this particular fan though, which is as important as the views of BN's editors.
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Your take is reasonable
I would argue though that the Stanford game is a toss up. I think we are going to have a hard time beating them this year at the firm. I think we got lucky a bit last year when Craft caught fire in that last drive. The question IMO is going to be whether our defense will be able to contain Gerhart who had his way with us (IIRC) last year. On the other hand, if our OL does improve a bit this year and we have average QBing with a credible running game, we could have a shot.
Arizona game will also be a toss up. Although they have lost their QB, they have always had their way against us even when we have had decent teams. I think that is going to be a difficult game.
On the other hand I could see one of the two games you have pegged as Ls, potentially going our way (such as Tennessee and Cal) if things break our way. So we don’t really know right.
It could be just little things that could be the difference between 5-7/6-6/7-5 seasons. But I like your way of thinking though even though I always try to be realistic. If we can put together a 6-6/7-5 season, it is going to set us up really well.
Nice post.
Thanks Nestor!
This was my first fanpost, and with the amount of time that it took (and still included the unforgiveable Freeman mistake), I’m amazed with the amount of info you put out on a daily basis. I applaud you for your consistent efforts.
You’re right about the other toss up games. Aside from SDSU, WSU, & Wash (I’m hoping all of these are gimmes), all of the W’s that I listed and the ones that you added all seem to be toss ups (like you said, Arizona always plays us tough- Cade McNown’s senior year efforts rallying the team to 4 unanswered TDs came to mind when you mentioned this). It would be amazing if we could win as many as I stated, regardless of which teams we beat, but I would be happy with 6-6. Of course, I am optimistic about a better outcome to the season. I would love to say that the first game will tell us what we need to know, but we all know how that turned out last season! Whatever the case, I can’t wait for the season to start! Go Bruins!
Anyone else
excited about seeing K Prince in action for the first time? I vividly recall the excitement of watching Craft put together some very nice drives last year during the Tennessee game and there is reason to believe we will get many more from Prince this year. It is indeed a good time to be a Bruin.
B.F.
Good post, here are a few points I'd like to add...
I keep going back and forth on whether we have a shot against Oregon, but we always seem to play them tough, especially at home. I predict a close game…but a loss.
I don’t think we can sleep on Washington…they usually give us a hard time, but I’m confident we’ll pull it out.
I think we will CRUSH ASU.
While the Tennessee game will be tough, I think we’ll win a close game.
We never win at Arizona…we are cursed in that stadium (lately).
Go Bruins.
I think the Rose Bowl is even more of a curse for Cal
and we get them at the Rose Bowl this year. And don’t forget, their precious Tedford never beat Dorrell at the Rose Bowl. So there is definitely a chance that this game could be a “W”.
by bornagainbruin on Jul 25, 2009 1:47 PM PDT up reply actions
DERP!
sorry KWBruins, didn’t see ur post above
I have a simple approach to prognosticating
It’s very difficult to win more than one game on any given day of the week. I have checked the schedule, and it looks like none of those pesky double-headers have been scheduled, which make my analysis much easier.
The way I figure it, the Bruins only need to win one stinkin’ game a week. Just one. If they do that every week, I think we’ll end up OK. I invite any and all to refute that thesis. (Unless of course I misread the schedule and they do have to play twice on the same day.)
Brilliant
I believe your calculations are correct. Just one win every week and we’ll be national champions.
You're right
And as soon as they stop scheduling these stinking games more than one week in advance, us fans will stop looking ahead…
by AllHailMightyBruins on Jul 23, 2009 1:18 PM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
The way I see it
There are 5 games we should win: SDSU, Kansas State, UW, Wazzu, ASU.
There are 5 toss ups: Tennessee, Stanford, Cal, Oregon, Arizona
There are 2 games we are likely to lose: Oregon State, U$C
So, even if we go 2-3 in the toss ups, we could win 7 games. That’s assuming we take care of business in the games we should win. So I am mildly optimistic about this season and I am expecting us to go to a bowl game.
A note on the U$C game: I have this weird feeling that if U$C loses a couple of Pac-10 games and is out of the Rose Bowl, they just might mail it in against us…too bad it’s at the Crapiseum…
But hey, what do I know. I’m just the 800 lbs bruin in the room.
A comment and a question
1. SC*’s QB is new and we all know how critical the QB position is, regardless of the strengths and weaknesses of the rest of the team. I don’t need to tell anyone here how deflating and devastating one INT (or 2 or 3) can be during a game. I know the LAT has been fellating SC*’s entire QB squad for months now, but you just never know until they actually have to play a game, right?
2. How in the world are you finding the time and the strength and the energy to post given the recent addition to your household? I walked around in a sleep-deprived zombie state for the first 3 months after my daughters’ arrival. (And I hope everything is going very, very well. If I can give you one tiny piece of advice, please, please, please take many, many, many pictures and a lot of video of your baby. Take many more pictures and much more video than you think you should. You’ll be glad you did, trust me.)
Thanks Barnes
There are several reasons for my semi-sanity:
1. my mother-in-law is staying with us until the end of the month.
2. our daughter is really good, she only cries if she’s hungry (and she’s being breastfed so far, so I can’t really do much, but the bottle is coming!) – knock on wood!
3. years of rowing have conditioned me to sleep deeply when I can and to be able to operate on little sleep! Waking up at 4:30am in college every day does that to you. My wife has to practically punch me to wake me up and change a diaper…and I fall asleep right after. I think she hates that…
4. so far we have over 300 pictures and she’s not even 3 weeks old yet! The videos are a bit more annoying because they’re too big to email, so there aren’t as many, but definitely a few.
But hey, what do I know. I’m just the 800 lbs bruin in the room.
All good
It sounds like you and your wife and daughter are all doing well. I’m very glad to hear it.
I’ll throw in one more piece of unsolicited advice which you probably don’t need: When she’s about 6 months old, go to one of those cheesy photo studios in just about any mall. We have Picture People here in SD which we sometimes visit. It’s not that expensive and they take enough photos such that a few of the shots will be absolute gems. They’ll also do the framing if you want (your choice), and they do a pretty good job. I never gave any thought to those studios before having a kid, but we’ve been several times and have gotten some great results.
Sweet!
We’ve been talking about doing that, but we’ve also bought a really nice camera that takes great pictures, but of course I have to try to do it myself at first…so in all likelihood, we’re going to a photo studio…
But hey, what do I know. I’m just the 800 lbs bruin in the room.
Mall Studios
Wifee has taken our little girl in a few times and, like Barns said, always gets a few really nice ones. But of course every proud papa thinks all his kid’s pics look great so I may be biased.
Oregon State
is overrated this year, in my opinion. They lost a lot of talent last season and don’t look they’ll be able to fill their roster with equal talent in 2009. They still have the rodgers brothers, a great DT, and couple other solid returners, but I don’t think it’ll be enough to overcoome the bleeding they had in the off season. On the other hand, it never pays to undersestimate Riley.
By the way, great post Westwood! I really enjoyed it.
I agree with you
but the Riley factor, plus playing them in Corvallis, makes me expect a loss.
But hey, what do I know. I’m just the 800 lbs bruin in the room.
Your post
Got me pumped for the upcoming season all over again. I can’t wait for to get this started.
Glad you all enjoyed it
Everyone keeps asking me how my Bruins are going to do this year and I figured I’d finally just put my response down for everyone to see. I just hope that our season turns out anywhere near we are hoping/predicting, because I can’t wait to throw it in the faces of everyone who looks at me crazily after I give them my prediction (I normally downplay it to 7-5 though)! Not many non-Bruin fans follow our program, so they don’t see the potential. All they see is 4-8, and that we haven’t beaten $C since the Nixon administration (Nobody gives us credit for 2006). While 8-4 might be a stretch, I think that we are well on our way to becoming a strong program again.
And yeah, writing this post got me pumped all over again too! Getting my SDSU game tix now!
How many more days???
Great post! I can’t WAIT for kick off. Can’t you just see it now? Rose Bowl, perfect day, 4:30 in the afternoon, the sun reflecting off those gold helmets as the team comes out of the tunnel?! I need to take a mini Rip Van Winkle nap and lose all of August! LOL
GO BRUINS!!!
Just on campus today...
I graduated in ‘01 and lived in Philly from ’04 to ’08 and now in Phoenix. I’m back visiting family in LA and decided to drop in on our school. Man, I love that place! So many memories! I hope all of the current students take advantage of every moment because it goes by so quickly. Increased my excitement even more for the upcoming season. Heres to that Rip Van Winkle nap!
Uh... Not a best case scenario in my book
8 wins is maybe generous, but any prediction that ends with us losing to $C cannot qualify as a “best case” scenario… not in my book anyway :-)
Can’t wait for this season!!!
Dustball!
While I know that you are semi-joking...
This is a best case, realistically. IMO, our talent level simply does not stack up to U$C at this point in our rebuilding process. Unless we drastically overachieve and they do the opposite, its probably not in the cards for us this year. you might point to our upset victory a few years ago, but I will remind you that that team was one of the Dorrell led teams loaded with talent that dramatically underachieved (this was the season that gave us National Championship aspirations for the following year because of that ridiculous level of talent that we had) throughout the season and put it all together for one great game…and then the wheels fell off again for Florida State.
We simply don’t have that kind of mature talent this year. In addition, if you are really thinking along those lines, then best case scenario should have us actually WINNING the National Championship, shouldn’t it, because if we can take down a team of that magnitude, then there shouldn’t be anyone else on that schedule that should stop us! Here’s to dreaming!
huh?
Of course we are going to win the NC. Jeez.
10-2
Guys, our O line is a BIG cause for optimisim & remember RN was successful in bringing in true freshmen so forget last year we’re fielding a completely different team. I was at most of our games, all the home ones, & I saw every one I couldn’t attend & aside from the BYU disaster our patch work 08 effort did one interesting thing – it put a GIGANTIC chip on our shoulders – no one owned us for 4 quarters- we just didn’t have enough healthy men to fill in all the injuries. 4-8 was built on.pure belief, 8-4 is talent+belief, so I say USC & OR are our trap games. We will own Cal & an overated Neyland crowd. We are going to be successful & suprise the nation starting in 09. Enjoy the ride guys!
CAL
Cal has not won in the Rose Bowl vs. UCLA since 1999. The skill level of our team is erroneous, the Rose Bowl is simply a cursed ground for the Bears. W for UCLA.
Realistic Prognosis, But Can We Survive Injuries?
I know many of you didn’t love Dorrell’s last year, but the injuries at quarterback really played a large role to increases in the lost column. Again, last year the injuries at quarterback and on the offensive line led to a dismal record.
I pray we don’t get injuries to out top personnel this year. But, if so, do we have a better bench this year? How good are the backups at quarterback and on the offensive line?
IMO I believe without any major injuries Westwood78’s analysis is pretty good. Then, like in poker, with a little luck we could have a few intersting upsets. I would love to see that happen against USC. Final score: UCLA 27 USC 24. Field goal by UCLA in the final seconds breaks the tie. Go Bruins.
Injuries do happen...
but I think the inconsistent effort is what did Dorrell in. Beat a dominant $C squad and then lose to a downtrodden Fla. St. team. Next season, with National Championship hopes, we beat BYU, and then, with Ben Olson, get blown out by Utah 44-6 the next week (I don’t know if you remember that game, but we were within striking distance until Everett fumbled a would be TD through the endzone. At that exact moment, we gave up. That is the fault of the coach) Then we down a top 10 Cal team, only to lose to Washington St. the following week. We lose to ASU and then beat a #9 Ducks team (granted, they were without Dixon, but still…). His innability to motivate his team on a weekly basis simply could not be tolerated, and hopefully, has been rinsed from the minds of our players who played under him. I supported him throughout all of his years, probably more than most, but truth is truth. It just didn’t work for him. I think he has great potential, but he might have been in a bit over his head. With that being said, hopefully we wont be experiencing letdowns like that this year. We have depth on the offensive end (in that our QBs, RBs, & WRs are near even with each other- if Prince goes down, I dont think we lose too much by going with one of the others). What we really need to hope for is health on our offensive and defensive lines. If we can stay healthy there, we should be okay.
RE: LOL!
Guys, that “hit” is called “Relentlessly Positive” :)
Thanks for the outstanding post & follow-ups westwood78. Your comments about inconsistent performance are a bulls-eye: BYU 08: 59-0; Utah 07: 44-6… In my humble opinion the UT game will make or break the 09 season… Personally, I happen to think Chow & Co. will ruthlessly hand the Kiffin’s their a** & Lane’s tenure there will last as long as it did with the Raiders! The entire UCLA Offense has to get hungry out of the gate & not tax its’ depth with a lot of early injuries. Our boys will be successful if the Football Gods grant us those two requests— i.e. I fear mistakes & injuries more than the opposition all the way to the OSU game. As we’ve seen our D has been & will continue to be a solid foundation.
BTW: you can’t spell Trojans without OJ! :) UCLA GO FIGHT WIN BABY!
"make or break"
I sure hope not! The consensus of opinion seems to that this game is very hard to call and depends on how a lot of new faces will perform. Win or lose we will still have ten games left and will need to prepare for each with the same sense of determination. I think the coaches will be able to convey the signifigance of this one game as part of the whole season.
After all, did last year’s win “make” the season?
Yup
Neither do I if we end up losing, but I would argue the UT victory paved the way for our Stanford victory & much more. Last year’s UT win was a walk on water miracle, but more importantly that was last year & a different set of circumstances.
In my OPINION :) an 09 victory over UT represents an end to a horrible away record at the beginning of the season where terrible defeats have plagued us in recent years & puts us into a best case 3-0 record prior to Stanford. A road win of this magnitude is pure rocket fuel this young offense needs out of the gate, esp. against a Stanford team hell bent on vengeance!
If we loss to UT it means we failed to “pound the rock”, failed to shutdown a Lane Kiffin offense (which is worse), & failed to win away making Stanford, AZ, & OSU larger away battles (in my mind’s eye) then they ought to be. So I say “Make or break” for those who don’t accept anything less then 8 wins as a success… I happen to think we’ll get there & then some.
Off the field, the 08 victory over UT put us back in the spotlight- albeit prematurely; but it was a VERY important win that spelled the demise of the Fulmer regime & more importantly made a GREAT selling point to Damien Thigpen (& others) who decided on a UCLA scholarship in 09. Some of those at the Rose Bowl on 9/1/08:
Randall Carroll
Morrell Presley
Sheldon Price
Todd Golper
Richard Marvray
Hayes Pullard,
Jayson Allmond
Me! :)
I believe a second victory over UT delivers a similar recruiting punch & a larger media one. Can’t wait to see us Pound the Rock at Rocky Top!
BTW: you can’t spell Trojans without OJ! :) UCLA GO FIGHT WIN BABY!
I forgot about that...
How amazing would it be if CHow found a way to seriously incorporate Thigpen’s skills into the game plan before that UT game, sticking it to Kiffin who decided that Damien’s skillset didn’t fit what they were trying to do down there (how does ridiculous speed not fit anyone’s scheme?!). Might be a bit of wishful thinking though, because it would be a small miracle for a true freshman with an undefined position (WR/RB/athlete/slot/assassin) to make such an impact in only his second game, but stranger things have happened (SEE Craft, second half of last year’s game-after following that first half).
I see it as a possible make game, but not break. The difference is, this year, our boys and the coaches both know that we have the horses to make a decent charge this year, and a win against Kiffin’s squad would only serve to bolster our efforts throughout the season. But if we happen to lose (hopefully not), I think we’ll right back after it in practice to prepare for the next opponent. We’ll be alright.
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