Some Random Thoughts About the KSU Game
by Class of 66 on Sep 20, 2009 8:20 AM PDT
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PrintBumped. GO BRUINS. -N
1. We still do not know how good this team is. We have beaten three teams, but none is a touchstone we can use to compare ourselves to other teams.
It is still to early in the season and comparative schedules are yet to be meaningful. I did not see Tenn. play, but it sounds like their D played well -- that may tell us a little bit about or O.
But, or D may not have had a meaningful test yet. KSU came into last night's game rated having thrown for 363 yards in its two prior games (28/57/2/3). Against us, it threw for 199 yards (better than previous games) 21/35/2/0. They came in with an average of 4.48 yards per rushing attempt and we held them to 1.9. However, their previous two games were against La-Lafayette and Massachusetts. Their passing game was better against us than against those two teams.
2. I am more concerned about our D than I am about our O. Don't get me wrong. I love our team and our D. I love these kids. But, I fear many of us are drinking the Kool Aid. I write this section in response to a post in the game day thread, last night. Someone referred to "Kevin Crap" and then went on to say that at least we had a "top 10 D". I wrote a long response but could not post it because the thread had changed. I will write about Craft, in a moment. This is about the D. Before last night's game, our D was rated 30th against unranked teams. I don't think we will move up much after last night.
Here are some opinions and some numbers. I write this section, not to criticize the D, but rather because I am tired of the criticism of Kevin Craft and the praise for the D. Neither are soundly rooted in fact.
I see the ugly remnants of the CTS/Walker D this season. Inconsistent from the get go. Why must we start every game by giving up a long drive? Why do we wait until late in the game to dominate? Why can't we stop a spread? Even a spread by teams that have not been or will not be highly ranked?
At times last night, our tackling was atrocious. Shades of the past.
And the penalties. Don't get me started. Yes, some were SPTR penalties, but when you have people in a hole, giving first downs or improved field position by penalty is not the way to win games.
I'm so sick of the complaints that the O forces the D to be mediocre. For the last few years, this has been a D that cannot get itself off the field. This year, the added wrinkle: Our D is starting with better field position than it has in the past. Thank you Locke.
In the first quarter, fresh off the bench, the D was on the field for 9 and 8 play drives. In the second quarter, one 3 and out and 6 and 7 play drives. The D, on it's first time on the field after the half, gave up a 14 play drive that resulted in a touchdown. The following: 3,6,3,11 and 4.
The O Drives: First quarter --11 (touchdown), 4 (field goal), Second Quarter -- 6(interception), 8 (field goal) 2 (end of half -- we had time but ran out the clock), Third -- 5, 4, 4 [this was our very bad 3rd quarter. Fortunately, Nestor turned the momentum by changing the game day thread]. Fourth -- 10 (Field Goal), 4 (Touchdown) 5, 2 (fumble) 1(end of game).
I've always thought Time of Possession was a meaningless statistic -- often misinterpreted. In the past our Defense Apologists have used TOP to blame our O for the D's failings. When you look at the drive charts, you see another story.
3. Get Off Kevin Craft's Back: Yes he had shaky moments last night and a tough 3rd quarter, but he delivered a win. For those of you who think Kevin Prince is so much better, look at the numbers. It's a bit hard to compare because although both are listed as having played 2 games, in reality, Craft has played but one. Craft has a higher efficiency rating 124/105, but they are quite even elsewhere. Completion percent? Craft 54.2 Prince 55.8. Each is averaging 1 TD and 1 Interception per game. Craft is averaging 4.5 yards per carry and Prince -10. And, BTW -- the longest pass play this season? Craft's 51 yard TD, yesterday. (And, he had a TD called back by an "interesting" penalty call.)
Would I rather see Craft start? No. But, we don't jump down Prince's throat if he has a bad series or makes a mistake. Let's give Craft the same allegiance.
Kevin Craft is a Bruin Warrior worthy of the same support and adulation we give our other warriors. His commitment and effort cannot be challenged. And, he delivered a win last night.
4. The best part of the team? Other than the MVP (Kai Forbath) the O line. It is playing way better than anyone expected. Opening holes and protecting our QB's. From what I hear, the Tenn. D is for real. So, I think it safe to say the O line has had a real test this year and we have reason to believe it is much improved. It certainly is in attitude. The looks on the O line players faces are so different from the looks in prior years. They are clearly on a mission to prove themselves and they are doing it.
So, where does that leave me? Thrilled. We are so clearly on our way back that I can see the glory days on the horizon.
But, I have tempered expectations. We have yet to play a team that is great. I think Cal is great. During the first weak of the season, after watching UW play LSU, I posted that I am now officially worried about that game.
At the beginning of the year, many of us said that we thought we will win the games we are expected to win and will steal a win or two of those we are expected to lose. I think that will hold up. We have one "unexpected" victory over a Tenn team that is probably not going to fall like last year's team. I think we will beat sc (I always think we will beat sc, but this year I think that even more.)
We are a young team starting to master CRN and CNC's systems and I think we will "overachieve" this year.
sjh
PS. The suspended players: We missed Viney last night -- but for the most part Sheldon Price played a good "first game". The two big losers in the group of 4? Carrol and Presley. How are you going to keep Rosario out of the line up?
This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of BruinsNation's (BN) editors. It does reflect the views of this particular fan though, which is as important as the views of BN's editors.
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Counter argument: giving up 9 points IS stopping the spread
I was disappointed in the tackling last night and the penalties, but I thought the schemes were called correctly for KSU, and if we had a corner who wasn’t a true freshman playing his first game and giving up a huge cushion, I think you would have seen KSU with a much shorter TOP. Price was giving at least a 5 yard cushion to his receiver to make sure he didn’t get beat the first three quarters. That makes it hard to play shut down defense, but the alternative is to risk giving up the big play, which we didn’t.
There were problems, but I have to disagree with the can’t stop the spread meme. ( this seems to be a very popular mulityear thought here) There is a reason teams run it, and it is because it isolates your players and negates the benefit of team defense, thereby allowing a single mismatch to be exploited. That’s the nature of the spread. Unless you have great experienced athletes at all 11 positions on the field, you are going to have problems with that type of offense because they will find the weak part of your defense. The negative of the traditional type spread is you can’t control time of position, and you can end up in a situation where your defense is on the field a long time against a pro style offense and you cant win the close game. When you run a form of spread option (Navy, KSU, Georgia Tech, Oregon) you get rid of some of those problems.
When evaluating whether we can stop the spread, I did an analysis a year or so ago which looked at how many points we gave up to “spread” teams (try getting a solid definition of that!) relative to their average. I will do that again this year and see how we compare to other teams. My guess is we will end up being above average against the spread offense.
I would also argue that KSU was running a spread option, with the focus on option than they were any type of spread.
"when you've seen how big the world is, how can you make due with this?"
by silverlakebruin on Sep 20, 2009 9:23 AM PDT reply actions
A couple of other things I think are worth noting.
The score in the fourth quarter was 10-0 Bruins. I think that says a lot. Also, their last series was a total domination by our defensive line. Their poor QB had zero chance to do anything.
We lost two big plays early (one a touchdown) because of low blocks. On replay, they looked like blocks I’ve seen forever. I assume this is a rule change and the officials have been instructed to call everything. Anyway, if we get that first TD, We’re involved in pretty much of a cakewalk.
Last but not least. I remember one 3rd and 10+ play. Craft threw a perfect pass to a guy who got open two yards beyond the marker. That play would never have been called in the prior regime, and Craft would not have had a chance to wait for a guy to run 12 yards last year. This year is this year, and Craft made that play and several others. I think the criticism headed his direction is way overstated. Is he a perfect quarterback? No. Will he be the starter when Prince returns? No. Did he have a great game yesterday? I think he did. He guided us to a win, he did not get sacked, he threw for two TD passes, although only one will be counted.
And to keep things in perspective, we are the only 3-0 team in town.
The domination, for the most part, was by the 2s on the D line too.
I am liking the depth I am seeing there. This was supposed to be a weakness fo UCLA, but guys like Damien Holmes and David Carter have stepped it up.
by orlandobruin on Sep 20, 2009 10:07 AM PDT up reply actions
to clarify my last sentence
KSU was running a spread option with the focus on spread more than option.
"when you've seen how big the world is, how can you make due with this?"
by silverlakebruin on Sep 20, 2009 9:49 AM PDT up reply actions
I am an idiot
focus on option more than spread… duh…
"when you've seen how big the world is, how can you make due with this?"
by silverlakebruin on Sep 20, 2009 9:50 AM PDT up reply actions
Inability to score TDs in the red zone is frustrating
If it weren’t for our MVP, we’d be in a lot worse shape. Need to strive for more consistency.
One thing to note about KSU's passing game
Was that we were missing Viney, which I think contributed to their passing game being a little more effective. I don’t think that was the only problem with our pass defense, but it definitely contributed.
Seconded Get off of Craft's back
We all know how frustrating it was during the KD years. A lot of that frustration was focused on Kevin Craft all of last year. What I do know is that here was a third string quarterback behind an ineffective O line who couldn’t open lanes to run through. So all opposing D’s had to do was wait to make picks. Added to this mix was a new offensive coordinator with new offensive schemes that the whole O had to learn. Yes, I was pissed and frustrated each time he threw a pick, however, he took a lot of physical punishment, he got schooled by CRN each time he came back to the sideline and God knows that couldn’t have very pleasant. Yet, he got up each and every time coming back for more punishment. Yesterday he played an adequate game. Perhaps with another game under his belt he will surprise the all of us.
Hear Ye and Hear Him
Thank you, ’66.
I was traveling last night, and got home and tuned in just in time to see K Craft’s 51-yard TD pass.
I was so happy to see this finally come together for this tough, determined Bruin Warrior—for a kid who was pummeled to the ground last year again and again, constantly being torn apart for being “not good enough,” and who always jumped right back up, worked his butt off, never blamed anyone else for his mistakes, and never whined. I agree with Raybru here; we may not have seen the best of young Mr. Craft yet, and he may well surprise everyone. God knows, he’s got the coaching staff behind him that can help him do this.
On a lighter note: Listening to the game on local (Kansas City) radio in the car from the airport was an absolute hoot. The announcers were unabashedly biased, of course, but also gracious and deeply respectful of our players and our coaches. They were quite knowledgable and objective when it came down to the actual plays, and they knew our players almost as well as they knew K State’s. I wish you all could have heard them talking about Rahim Moore, ATV, Moya, Brian Price and others. It was so refreshing, and such a different perspective coming from a non-conference opponent’s commentators.
( Also, all of the commercials were for farm chemicals and crop insurance, which is the first time in my life I’ve heard that during a football game. It was somewhat surreal, actually.)
Love My Bruins
Third on cutting Craft some slack
I had lots of my friends texting me during the game, telling me how much Craft sucked, and why Craft was the starter. I was getting pretty pissed at all of those comments, all coming from ‘die-hard’ UCLA fans. I knew CRN and Chow would put the best person in for QB, so to see Craft start, I was excited to see how Craft would play with a better OL and having the same offensive coordinator two years in a row. Well, we got the win, and Craft did his job.
What really boils my blood, is that if Prince had played the game in the EXACT same way, no one would be talking about how much he sucked or whatever.
So Bruins….lay off of Craft, cause really, all of you Craft haters, are starting to sound like fans of that OTHER team.
by BruinBabe4ever on Sep 20, 2009 11:44 AM PDT reply actions
And a fourth
Craft is a TOUGH player whose allegiance to our program is admirable. He did just fine and deserves a chance. Hope he does great up in Palo Alto! GO BRUINS!!!
I agree with most of your points...
…but I think you are way off base with re: to our defense. I see us swarming to the ball and making plays we didn’t make before. Yes, our tackling could have been better. But in the past we wouldn’t have even been in position to make a tackle. Also, give K State some credit. That offense is not as bad as we made them look. So far, our defense has been the best unit on the field.
I completely agree with re: to Craft. He played under control and managed the game well. We didn’t need him to make big plays because our defense and special teams did their jobs. Thank you, Kevin. Also, let’e be honest…Craft threw 2 TD’s. Not a bad ratio.
One last important point…I’m getting tired of hearing people say that we can’t defend the spread. Guess what…most teams have a hard time defending the spread. That’s why so many teams are running it!
absolutely correct re: spread
that is why people run, but i have yet to see a team run a spread that is also a lock down defensive team. I am not sure why, but they don’t go hand in hand. I am thinking it has something to do with time of possession.
"when you've seen how big the world is, how can you make due with this?"
by silverlakebruin on Sep 20, 2009 3:50 PM PDT up reply actions
RE: Criticism of Craft
While I have tons of respect for Craft and what he had to endure last year, I think a lot of people’s frustration has to do with his (very) obvious physical limitations. Looking objectively at last nights game, it’s hard to argue that Craft can’t throw a Rey effective deep ball. His interception was because he stalled while throwing a deep seam to Austin, who was open for about five seconds before Craft lofted a ball put there for the safety to catch up to.
All of Craft’s deep balls were thrown to the inside of the receivers – a big no-no when you’re throwing a deep ball. It’s fairly obvious he just doesn’t have the touch of someone like Prince when throwing deep seams or outs. Prince does make rookie mistakes and their numbers are similar – but I think it’s fairly obvious that Prince is far more talented – and I think that’s where a lot of people’s frustation lies.
Craft throws INTs because he merely he doesn’t have the proper touch or angle on passes – Prince makes the same mistakes because he isn’t quite up to speed with reading defenses correctly, which is easier to live with.
by CAJason80 on Sep 20, 2009 4:51 PM PDT via mobile reply actions
If this gamed proved anything
It’s that even with all day to throw, and very poor competition to throw against…Craft still can’t throw. He just can’t.
I could’ve completed that pass to Austin. He was open by about 100 yards (maybe that wasn’t as obvious on the TV broadcast). Ditto for the negated Moya touchdown. Those were extremely easy plays to make, and I’m sure Prince and Brehaut would’ve made them. Anything slightly more difficult, tho still wide-open, and it was the same old story.
What’s so frustrating about seeing Craft play is that after 13 games he’s had his chance. And he’s a senior. And he simply isn’t good. There’s nowhere for him to improve, nothing for him to “show.” He’s a gamer, etc., but we do have guys on the roster who have plenty of room to improve and a much higher ceiling to improve to. It’s frustrating to see them deprived of the experience for the sake of a hopeless cause, especially when there’s no way they (meaning Brehaut) could’ve done worse IMO.
I’m not vigilantly doubting the coaching decision. If CRN and Chow were so sure about it they wouldn’t have made it at the last second. Clearly, they were rolling the dice either way, and chose the “safe” route with Craft. (Maybe there were snap-exchange problems in practice? And I can’t blame them for not making a change in the second half, which really leaves the fresh hands in a hole).
But doing barely enough to beat KSU at home will not be enough to beat a decent pac 10 team on the road. So I’m really hoping we see something new behind center in two weeks.
How much of Brehaut have you seen?
and did you see much of Craft in practice since last season?
by Ryan Rosenblatt on Sep 20, 2009 6:14 PM PDT up reply actions
A couple of Spring practices
And, of course, the two throws against SDSU—the first of which, 25 yards and right on the money in a tight spot, was something Craft has never done.
Small samples to be sure. In both, however, he completely outperformed Craft (who was horrible during the Springs I was at).
Have you seen anything that refutes the 13 games of evidence on Craft?
I haven't because I'm not at practice every day
and clearly neither are you, which makes it nearly impossible to know what should and shouldn’t be done. Calls for Brehaut remind me of the calls for Osaar Rashaan a couple years back. You don’t know what you’re getting yourself into and unless you’re at practice every day, you won’t know.
by Ryan Rosenblatt on Sep 20, 2009 8:27 PM PDT up reply actions
I understand, but...
That’s not a fair comparison. Osaar was never considered seriously by the coaching staff, as Brehaut obviously is, since he’s been named the backup on and off (including at hostile Tennessee, according to Jon Gold) and got 80% of the first-team reps on Tuesday.
If the decision’s 50-50, I think the factors can be guessed at, and I think it demonstrates that even the coaches don’t strongly know what should be done. If they did, the depth chart would be clearer.
I’m not a passionate second-guesser. You never saw me pining for Forcier last year — because I was watching when he did play, and it was obvious that he was even worse. Same goes for Osaar. In the current case I think it’s a question of risk, and my feeling after yesterday’s game is that we need to take it.
If I’m that far off there wouldn’t even be a controversy (as there wasn’t last year between Craft and Forcier) and Craft would get the clear nod.
Brehaut probably didn't do well during practice then...
because Craft got most of the first team reps on Wednesday, and maybe 80% of it on Thursday. Something must have happened to cause the coaches to make that switch.
I have it in pretty good authority
that coaches gave Brehaut every chance to win the starting position at practice this past week. Craft performed better and got the job. If UCLA players want to start on Saturdays, they will prove it at Spaulding first. Doesn’t get simpler than that.
I disagree, Blue
I remember at least one pass that was vintage Cade. It was 3rd and 10 or more, and he hit a guy over the middle with a very good pass for a first down. Maybe you could have made that pass, maybe not. But Craft did. It was a money play. I agree that he isn’t the best QB ever to play the game, but I disagree with your statements that “Craft still can’t throw” and that “he simply isn’t good.”
I don’t know your pedigree, Blue. Maybe you have a solid basis to judge whether Craft is as bad as you say. I know what I saw, and I saw a guy make some good plays (and some bad ones, of course). I do know the pedigrees of Coach Neuheisel and Coach Chow. If they are confident in Craft, I am confident in Craft. If they switch to Brehaut (or to you), then I will have confidence in that choice, too.
Bottom line, to me, is that we shouldn’t be skewering Craft, especially after a win.
No intention to skewer
Just to argue that now is the time to thank Craft for all he’s done, and move on. Before it’s too late.
And I think the coaches would be wise to go with me — for the bye-week.
really
I need to watch the game again on dvr but overall a Win is a Win. In CRN and CNC I Trust. Go Craft and Go bruins!
by westwood12003 on Sep 20, 2009 7:10 PM PDT via mobile reply actions
"Top 10 D"
One of the announcers on the 570 AM Bruin pre-game show said repeatedly that we have a “top 10 defense” in the country. I don’t know which commentator it was, because it’s radio. (? Wayne Cook?) Maybe that’s where that poster got that from. I think our D is good. Top 10? The potential is definitely there.
Interesting points on D, horrible argument for Craft
Have to say your points on D were excellent. however, your use of stats to support Craft was aweful…straight stats, without qualification. I actually totally agree with getting off Craft’s back (I was at the opener and clapped as he took the field). Craft deserves our respect for a number of reasons, but not for numbers. Comparing his KSU stats (at the rose bowl) to Prince’s (including @ UT) isn’t fair. We all know Prince, although inexperienced, is vastly superior to Craft. So, arguing that the “numbers” say they are on par actually polarizes the argument. I will trust CRN to make the call, but I also understand the support of Brehaut, given Chow’s undertone. I trust CRN’s decisions because of who he is and I don’t like the anti-Craft bandwagon, but, let’s be realistic, the numbers don’t tell even part of the story and I certainly wouldn’t stand behind Craft’s stats.
by bruin_nerd on Sep 20, 2009 11:04 PM PDT via mobile reply actions
I Completely Understand
your point that the two circumstances—i.e. UT at Neyland vs. KState at the Rose Bowl—creating different levels of skill challenge. However, let’s be honest about the fact that when players, particularly QB’s, are compared to each other, it is a conversation about numbers and statistics, usually beginning and ending with what turned up in their W/L column. There is really no other way to analyze a game of yards and “downs,” in an objective fashion. Numbers may not be “fair,” but they never lie.
One cannot reasonably disregard numbers only when they present somewhat of an undesired result. I think 66’s point actually depolarizes the argument in the sense that one cannot seriously continue to insist that KCraft’s performances are currently so terribly inferior to KPrince’s, statistically.
It then becomes a matter of nuance and perception of possible/probable future performance. That’s where this argument is, really, anyway: assessing KPrince’s potential future numbers in light of the raw skills he is said to possess.
I cannot imagine that KCraft will not also continue to improve. His play in this game proves that he has improved since last season. IMHO, he deserves just as much optimism as KPrince, in that regard.
Love My Bruins
By the way
Craft’s QB rating and overall numbers were better than Corp’s over at $C this week.
And if Mitch Must-sit-on-bench, $C’s number 3 QB, was so good, how come he has wooden splinters in his ass from sitting on the bench all these years?
Finally, anyone else at the Dodgers game Saturday when they flashed the UDub/$C score on the screen? That was sweeeeeet.
Papa Mustain must have gotten a huge payday when he sent Mitch to Figueroa JC
Otherwise, he would be making lots of noise. Has Mustain ever played at all?
Great question
Maybe he got in for a couple of downs last year. I’m not sure.
I’d like to say I feel sorry for him, but I have to believe that everyone goes into that program with their eyes wide open. Things are so bad for him right now that they are thinking of using him as the team’s punter (not a joke).
And yet your favorite newspaper never fails to remind us that he went 9-0 as a freshman QB at Arkansas. I guess that 9-0 record hasn’t meant squat out here. It is a safe bet that, barring injuries to Barkley and Corp, he will never play QB at South Central.
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