The Seat Is Warm, Pressure Is On Ben Howland To Fix The Mess He Has Created At UCLA
I don't really care about the revisiting the details from last night's expected debacle all over again. I do want to start this week picking up on a big picture theme about Ben Howland in a period of less than two years has gone from a life-time Bruin coach to someone whose seat is warm.
Let's make this clear. This season is over. I don't really care what comes out of the mouths of Howland and his players (we will LOL at the words if they continue to serve up the same listless nonsense), if the Bruins do not come back next season to make a (legitimate) run at the conference title with 20+ season, Howland's seat is going to get warmer. Howland will have to follow-up next season with a huge one in 2011-12 with retention Tyler Honeycutt.
The pressure is going to be immense and it is going to come more intensely not from us, but from all the big time donors who have been hit up and who will be approached for an extremely controversial Pauley renovation project. It is one thing to deal with pesky bloggers' criticisms, it is a whole another beast when Morgan Center will have to deal with big money donors who will not be in the mood to shell out bucks for crappy work product.
Meanwhile, I want to make another point. I have seen number of commenters who have been desperately trying to absolve Howland from this current mess by throwing the freshmen class of 2008 under the bus. Not so fast people. That was not the only recruiting class Howland has struck out with in his 7 years in Westwood.
Let's revisit a rather prescient post Bellerophon in which he laid out how Ben Howland's recruiting has killed the UCLA basketball program. Class of 2008 is not the only bust on Ben Howland's resume. Here are once again the results of three recruiting classes from 06 to 08:
2006
Russell Westbrook: Warrior
Nikola Dragovic: Super Scrub
James Keefe: Overrated Scrub2007
Kevin Love: Warrior, but one-and-done
Chace Stanback: Scrub - Transfer2008
J'mison Morgan: Scrub
Malcolm Lee: Possible Warrior
Jrue Holiday: Overrated Scrub and one-and-done
Jerime Andersen: Clueless Scrub
Drew Gordon: Psycho Scrub - Transfer
So essentially this year's disaster is a result of cratering of three straight recruiting classes. There is no other way to sugarcoat it.
Ben Howland is 100 percent accountable for this disaster. Right now it is not clear whether he can guide us out of it. From this year's class Reeves Nelson and Tyler Honeycutt' s career look promising but we have no idea how long we can hang on to Honeycutt. While Lane and Moser had tough moments last night, it is not unreasonable considering they have not been used in a meaningful way the entire season. In Moser's case Howland played him for a grand total of 2 minutes in previous 14 outings, while Lane was used for a total of 5 minutes in previous 6 games. So if they looked a little unprepared and tentative that is on Ben Howland.
Now while it does not look good for Ben Howland, he is our best shot to get it together in next 2 years. People can whine all they want for us being too hard on him, but the fact of the matter is because of the good-will he built up in recent years, we are not demanding his immediate firing from Westwood. If this was any other coach, the scenario would be different. If Jim Harrick ever put together this kind of season in Westwood, he would have been shown the door on the spot. Heck, Harrick would probably would have gotten canned if Tyus Edney hadn't gone coast-to-coast.
In retrospect, it looks like Harrick actually did a better job of building a program with stronger foundation, considering even a poser like Steve Lavin was able to live off his recruits and program reputation parlaying into more influx of talents and cheap Steve-16 runs.
Going back to the present, we will reiterate one more time that now Howland needs to position this program for next year. It will be inexcusable of Brendan Lane and Mike Moser look tentative because of lack of game experience when next season starts. It will be inexcusable if Howland doesn't reward someone like Mustafa Abdul-Hamid with more game minutes (and certainly more than Jerime Anderson) so that he is even more prepared to make contributions as a role player and leader off the bench next season. It will be inexcusable if Howland and his staff waste their time during these remaining few weeks chasing after recruits who are not serious about UCLA while missing out more Southland talents such as Derrick Williams and Reggie Moore.
In a span of less than two years Ben Howland has completely ravaged the UCLA program into an unrecognizable mess.He is responsible for it. It's a fact and if people are not comfortable with that they better get used to it because we are going to be pointing this out a lot in the coming days, months and years.
Due to the incredible success he experienced early after rebuilding this program from another unrecognizable mess, Howland deserves the opportunity to rebuild it again within period of next two years. If he fails to get it done, the Bruins will be better off looking at another direction. The seat is warm now. Tick, tock, the pressure is on.
GO BRUINS.
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I'm a fan of Deadspin ..
they do an excellent job of reminding readers that Bill P is a total effing moron. Linking to one of his articles means nothing except to lower the credibility of the poster who provided the link.
The important parts of the article are DG's quotes...
not Splashme’s writing. Get off the “we think Splashme’s an idiot” kick for a moment. DG’s quotes are crystal clear that he understands why things are the way they are.
I am thrilled to have DG as our AD…so glad we don’t have this clown.
http://www.latimes.com/sports/la-sp-simers12-2010jan12,0,2754638.column
Also
Before bringing up an old piece, look through the archive to see if it has been discussed before. As has been noted that was an “unambiguous vote of confidence” which is not news at this point of time. I’d be shocked of DG said anything else in public at this time.
Nestor
I read this page every day. I know it had been discussed before. Your post from this morning about Ben being in the hot seat overlooked the DG aspect. I am a fellow fan that is disugsted with the way this season has gone, but I also remember how sweet the Final Fours were and how awesome it is to watch so many Bruins in the NBA. With the recruits Howland has coming in we’ll be back where we belong.
Nestor…if you really think Ben’s seat is warm…then who do you think DG would have as replacements for him? Can UCLA get better than Howland? Lower pay compared to other “elite” coaching jobs. Higher cost of living. Lower pay for his staff. Academic challenges getting players in. High maintenance fan base who gets upset two years after three straight final fours. Donor fan base that sits on the hands the entire time during basketball games. Arena that is shared with the flipping “Recreation Dept”. UCLA isn’t as rosy as you think. Wooden era was a long time ago.
Uhm
When I wrote the seat is “warm” it doesn’t mean that Howland’s job is in jeopardy in the immediate future. It was a nuanced argument in a sense that Howland will have to produce in a period over two years. It doesn’t DG has to say anything dramatic right now or have replacements in mind right now.
We are also not going to discuss replacements here on BN. We are not going to talk about candidates until we see what transpires in next two years. That doesn’t mean there is no pressure on Howland and that the seat is not warm. If you are incapable of not discerning the nuanced arguments, then you shouldn’t pipe up and stick to the comment sections in the LA Times where you can post drivel about “Wooden era” being a “long time ago.”
By this logic
if we have five or ten losing seasons…oh well, nobody wants to come here. With all due respect, BS. First, remember neither I nor anyone else are saying fire Howland now. Yes, UCLA’s not the best-paying job around. The current version of Pauley, while historic, is dated. One hopes we’ll get enough $$ to take care of that – but that’s hard with losing teams. Regardless, do you not think most coaches would give their left nut for this job? We’re not a final four team now, and won’t be in the near future, but UCLA would still have to be considered one of the top handful of programs most coaches would dream of being at.
Not saying others won't want to to coach at UCLA...
just saying it isn’t as easy as people think it is. And whenever people get on the “Ben is on the hot seat” bandwagon they never seem to have solutions as to who would do a better job. Its like the old saying, “come to me with answers, not problems”.
Where did we suggest that it's easy?
We have offered up “solutions” number of times in terms of feedback on rotations. In this very specific post, we pitched how Howland still has 2 years to right the ship and Achilles offered a constructive feedback on how wrt to assistant coaches. All you did in response was to offer up a stale Splashme article with boilerplate DG quotes not telling us anything.
It takes a while to identify problems, hash them out in detail and then talk about possible solution. The solution right now is for Howland to adjust, recruit good talents and reestablish a defense first, blue collar mentality in his program. If he can’t get it done, he will be gone. It’s simple as that.
It’s a nuanced take and something we have been discussing in great detail. In response you have been offering nothing of substance citing Bill Splasme’s dumb column. So why should anyone take you seriously? If you can’t offer anything constructive or substantive then contribute to this discussion and find a message board somewhere else.
i have to agree
Not to sure if it’s the academic challenges or the lower pay but ucla has always had trouble attracting interest from big name coaches. I hope CBH can turn this around but if the program continues to struggle who would they look to? scary thought….
Go Bruins
"Success is never final, Failure is never fatal. It's Courage that count's"
John Wooden.....
Deadspin is great, but FJM is epic
FireJoeMorgan was the best at exposing Plaschke for the hack that he is.
+10000
Bashing Pla$Chke for his faux-poetic ramblings is the essence of FJM. Every few weeks I look to see if they have returned… a sad loss to the blogosphere.
by britishbruin on Feb 15, 2010 3:23 PM PST up reply actions
At telling sign of the "chemistry" of this team
I watched the game last night with the family after convincing my sons that making a trip to the Nordstroms East the TroGans call a basketball arena to watch the game live, was a bad idea.
There has been some chatter on BN about whether this team has chemistry and likes playing together. But I saw something during the second half of the game last night that I found very revealing. Not sure if anyone else saw it or commented on it during the game (I wasn’t posting live as I was trying to enjoy some “family” time) but there was one point where RN and ML went up for a rebound and Lee came down hard on the floor with the ball only to be called for traveling, committing another of the 10,000 TOs we had last night.
RN walked away and not a single Bruin player came over to help ML up (from what I saw), or to see if he was okay. FSW broke to a commercial but not until Lee helped himself up.
Usually teammates rush to help one another up after a play like this but not a single Bruin that I saw came to the aid of ML? Is this a condemnation of ML? Or is RN, who was closest to the action and who knocked Lee over, just not a “team” player?
Did I miss something? Was anyone there live who saw something different? Just a curious observation from the couch last night.
I saw that too
And started thinking about RN’s comments earlier in the season about how he didn’t like playing with people who don’t have heart (or something to that effect). We all assumed he was talking about ND at the time, but the more and more I think about it, I believe he was talking about ML and JA.
see also
TH’s comments re: Drew Gordon post departure.
Potentially no love lost between the frosh and the sophs.
by britishbruin on Feb 15, 2010 12:09 PM PST up reply actions
There have been many times
this season that I’ve seen RN help up players from our opponents. Some may scoff at that, but I see at as an example of good sportsmanship and think it’s a good thing. I didn’t think through the play you’re talking about when I watched it live, but it’s a very interesting point. RN plays his heart out, he gives his all, he helps opposing players up…but not ML. Could be quite telling.
I've seen it from RN at times as well
RN does play tough hard nose ball. He rebounds and has some pretty decent post moves (best on the team, which isn’t saying much) but he does lack something on defense still. He often doesn’t hustle back on D and lets his man beat him down court and gets lost in the 2-3 zone sometimes. These things will come with experience.
I don’t take offense to him helping up opposing players, but not helping up your own teammate who you just knocked over and cause a TO, seems a bit petty and divisive on a team that needs leadership and some cohesion.
Pushing teammates away even when you think they aren’t playing with heart isn’t the solution, IMO.
Very interesting
But RN sort of reminds me of Drew Gordon as a freshman. Fan favorite, plays with passion, but is somewhat outspoken (as a freshman). I don’t care if RN has a problem with ML, you always help your teammate up.
For What it's Worth
A few weeks back, I went to the UCLA-Stanford Women’s B-ball game in Pauley. There were three Men’s players sitting/standing together in the bleachers offering their enthusiastic support. Two of them were ML and RN. The third, I didn’t recognize, but I think was probably MM. I took it as a positive sign of their commitment to UCLA that the three were out there supporting fellow Bruins and, if they were hanging out together when they didn’t have to be, I take it they are friends off the court, as well.
Nelson
You all know I like his energy and passion a lot. That said I think last night was his worst defensive performance of this season. I thought at times he looked even more clueless on defense than Ragovic (not sure if it was possible but it happened). Just awful. Honeycutt also had a really bad. I think these two are getting frustrated now that the opposing teams are keeping their eyes on them.
It will be interesting to see how Nelson develops. We have to keep in mind he is being asked to play as a center, when he should really be playing the 4. I just wonder if he can be back at the 4 spot next season (ahead of Lane) if we can get credible mins out of combination of Smith, Morgan and Stover at the 5.
Thoughts on JMM play yesterday?
I always pay close attention to him when hes on the court and yesterday was the first time he was back on the floor since his injury, I believe. Granted he was only out there for 2 minutes, but he just seems so soft. Never really even contested for a rebound on the 2 or 3 possessions he was in the game. I am really having trouble seeing him having any real success if can’t at least battle for some boards. He is one player (other than BL and MM) that I would like to see get more development minutes.
I have to say
Given how unfairly Howland has treated Lane and Moser, I am now “unsure” with regards to Morgan. Last year I bought the line about Morgan not playing up to par in practice. He is clearly slow down low and is raw on offense. However, I remember how horrible Zidek looked in his early years in Westwood. I mean Zidek was atrocious. I really hope this kid along with rest of the freshmen gets a legit shot in this program if he and someone else like Moser decides to stick around at the end of this season.
+1
I just hope he has the heart to continue competing given I believe Smith will see a ton of minutes next year at the 5 and AS may have more upside given his athleticism.
Yep
I saw the second half of his game on ESPN a week or so ago, and he could play center for CRN just as easily as he could for CBH….
The kid is Wide. If he converts some of that baby fat into muscle he is really going to be a beast.
yup
They are clearly our players with most upside; and by far my favorite moments of the game were plays involving the two of them (I think they are really developing a rapport on the court). At the same time, both of them are better offensive players than defensive at this time, and right now both of them need to cut back on the cheap fouls and keep focused when the opposition keys on them.
by britishbruin on Feb 15, 2010 4:58 PM PST up reply actions
I think at that point they were just all so frustrated
I think he walked away in frustration because they had the ball and lost it…again.
Go Bruins!
Next year doesn't look much better
I’m finally willing to throw in the towel on this season with you N. Last night was do or die for me and CBH definitely guided it to the guillotine.
The worst development from this season is that next season might be worse. We will have absolute zero outside shooting without MR and (occasionally) ND around. ML cant shoot. JA cant shoot. TH cant shoot. MM cant shoot. Barring one of those players actually improving their shot (maybe TH), our two best outside shooters next year will BL (the backup power forward who I would rather have around the rim getting rebounds than shooting 3s) and MAH. But I’m not even sure MAH will stay. He introduces himself as a senior on the pregame videoboard and will be graduating this year. If you were MAH and have higher goals than basketball, why would you waste a year of your life inexplicably sitting on the bench behind JA. I sure wouldn’t.
Besides for having no outside shooting, the other main problem this year and next is that we still wont have a reliable point guard next season. ML is schizophrenic between disappointing or forcing shots and is incredibly non-nonchalant with the ball at times. JA is just a joke who probably couldn’t even get on the court at Wooden. Jones might be good, but excuse me if I don’t think that a guy who couldn’t make it to a D1 school for two years is somehow going to be a savior at UCLA. Usually you take the devil you know rather than the devil you don’t, but given how terrible our point guards have been, its not an exaggeration to say that an absolute unknown like Jones is our best shot next year.
That leads me to what to do this year. I would like to see BL, MM, and JMM get more playing time, but none of them play the position with the least production: point guard. I would like to see MAH get more time, but I don’t even know if he will stick around next year. The best thing CBH should do is start to move players to where they will be next year. Put RN at power forward, JMM at center, have MM as the backup small forward/shooting guard. Since CBH plans to scarp the zone (which he would be wise to keep in the arsenal, but appears doesn’t want to), we might as well go back to man to man right now. Other than that, I don’t know what else CBH can do.
Agree with a lot of this
If we are building for the future, let’s put people in their positions, preferably players who we have reason to expect to be here next year. I would definitely like to see RN and TH on the court at the same time without either of them playing out of position. Not sure if this has happened yet this season.
Unfortunately that would probably be an argument for more minutes at the point for JA, who is a lower flight risk than ML (has unrealistic expectations) and MAH (has better things to do with his life). Also wouldn’t be hugely surprised if BL, MM or both decided to transfer. Maybe even JMM if he thinks JS2 and AS may both get minutes ahead of him next year.
Maybe another purge of the roster would help us make a run 2 years from now.
by britishbruin on Feb 15, 2010 12:32 PM PST up reply actions
Year is over
You and I agreed this was the game for the year so playing for next year is key. I am glad you put Bobo on the list. Unlike most here, I see Bobo as a potential first 8 player. Bobo has size and in the two minutes he was in last night he changed a shot, helped on an Offensive rebound, etc. He COULD be a player. Please note I am not saying will but if the season is over give him a shot. If nothing else, it would let RN play 4 and TH play 3 some.
I hope JA and BL are not in our top 8 next year. JA is terrible and MAH is better. I don’t see JA learning how to use his hands. I also don’t see BL having a huge upside. He has had minutes this year and has not shown he has PAC-10 Potential. Also, I think playing him now would be throwing him to the wolves and may even hurt his confidence. (He was lost last night.) If JA or BL are playing a lot next year, I think your point that we may be worse is scary but true.
I don’t have an opinion on MM as I have not seen him enough.
On BL, JMM
at the risk of mistaking activity for achievement, BL looked very active in the first half, set good screens, got into position and called for the ball, and generally looked like a guy playing a role in a deliberate coached offense; and he was active on the offensive boards and boxed out on the defensive boards better than anyone else playing center or forward on the court for our team. Second half he was dreadful; but having watched the replay largely to see how BL, JMM and MM looked, I thought BL’s first half performance showed more glimpses of ability – and, more importantly, understanding – than I have seen in the rest of his season combined. I have been as negative about his prospects as anyone, but it looked to me like he may be learning.
MM still didn’t show much in his time – he had a rough stretch to end the first half that cost us, with TH on the bench with 2 fouls.
Bobo didn’t look so good to me as he looked to you. He didn’t seem to be doing anything effective on the offensive end to help other players, and defensively seems to make plays if the opposition is obliging enough to drive to exactly where he is standing, but doesn’t rebound well and doesn’t move well enough to close anyone out in the middle of the zone.
In his limited engagements, I have seen nothing that looks like progress from Bobo; BL, based on what he showed in the first half, seems to be coachable. Small sample sizes in both cases, obviously, so take it all with a pinch of salt.
by britishbruin on Feb 15, 2010 3:21 PM PST up reply actions
and the traveling call
was questionable. The SC guard reached and barely tide MM up. Call could have gone either way. He got pulled right after that.
Questionable why?
You think it could have been called as a foul, or saying he didn’t have possession for all of the steps?
by britishbruin on Feb 15, 2010 5:02 PM PST up reply actions
Disagree on BL
He is young, still developing physically, and just hasn’t played the minutes necessary for us to make determinations about his potential. On BL’s last foul for an illegal screen, for example, Don MacLean quite rightly pointed out that it was JA’s fault for not allowing BL to set himself before trying to utilize BL’s screen. BL did some good stuff yesterday in his limited minutes. I would like to see BL, JMM, and MM all get more minutes.
People who are dismissing Lane/Moser after one start
or in Moser’s case (appearing for 4 minutes after sitting for months) sound as premature as the same idiots who dismissed RW’s potential as a pg following his first start against West Virginia.
MM for pg?
I’m serious. Well, maybe not necessarily at point full time, but since none of our points really are real point guards (TH is our purest facilitator with MR being the next best passer), why not throw MM in there with MR, TH, ND (more as a third ballhandler) and RN. That lineup (at least for a few minutes) has me more excited, especially for rebounding/length/defensive purposes, than any lineup featuring JA or ML at this point.
Not sure
I think we can give Moser perhaps 7-10 mins rest of the season to give Honeycutt a blow. Tyler was gassed yesterday … he looked a little out of it (and I don’t understand Howland’s decision to go man-to-man exposing him with his 4th foul).
yup
The man-to-man made absolutely no sense.The defense hadn’t been bad up to that point and the switch when multiple players were in foul trouble was unjustifiable. I’m sure CBH will comment later this week on how that was a mistake that in retrospect he shouldn’t have done.
MM should be the only backup at small forward for the rest of the year. I’m sick of seeing MR forced to play out of position there getting killed against bigger/stronger players. Its not fair to MR and makes no sense. Moving MR to small forward so JA can play point is just dumb. Effectively giving MM JA’s minutes by keeping MR at shooting guard would be a development I would be very happy with.
No
JA shows that you need to have a point guard that can handle pressure. ML learned to do it, at the expense of the rest of his game. It would hurt MM long term. PG is the hardest position in basketball now. If you are playing for next season, play him where he may play next year.
Not really at pg
My idea is to have MR, TH, and ND bring the ball up the court. They wouldn’t be going against a point bringing it up so there shouldn’t be as much pressure. As for JA, his debacle underscores the point that the easiest way to beat pressure is passing the ball. The turnover at the end of the first half could have easily been avoided if he had simply flipped the ball up to ND and then got it back after crossing half court. Instead, JA tried to show off his dribbling “skills” with predictably disastrous results.
With regards to ML, I don’t buy the argument that bringing the ball up the court is the reason for his poor play. The reason for his poor play is that he is not a good outside shooter, he is lackadaisical (two of his turnovers yesterday were from simply being lazy), and he is dealing with the realization that his grand dreams of being a superstar this season aren’t a reality.
Agreed
Not only could it be detrimental to Moser’s progress individually, it would most likely have an adverse effect on the team. I’m not sure I’d ever want the player with the most turnovers per minute played by far running the point.
Every time I've seen MM live (which is every home game)
he’s turned it over. I know he lacks experience, but probably not the best ball handler (even potentially). As for shooting, how is Tyler Lamb’s outside shooting?
Go Bruins!
Good points on BL
BL went perfectly to the basket in the first half and was ignored. He showed some BB IQ. He could gain weight and was playing out of position as a Center. There is an argument for him being able to grow into a top 8 player on a team. I think what BB said at one point is right, he could grow into a decent role player in 4 years.
But i still think there is some as you said mistaking activity for achievement. I also think playing him this year is giving up on the season, which I was reluctant to do until last night.
On Bobo, I still think he could play. Your right that he is slow and doesn’t rebound good enough. He needs to rebound to play. But I still think he has a potential upside.
Snorkeldorf, I have Nestor ND type feelings for JA. Remember he was benched the first time for missing a session with the trainer for his groin injury. Ugh.
The bigger question is whether these are wasted scholarships again.
Yeah
We lost a lot by not playing Lane and Moser the entire season. Yeah, that really worked out well and justified those 35+ mins game for Rago.
You might have Dragovic type of feelings for Anderson but it is kind of funny that you developed those after watching him only for 2 years and despite the factors that Anderson has been playing injured all season.
Anderson was atrocious last night. He hasn’t been good this year and he clearly didn’t put in the work this off-season. Yet I am not giving up on him. I didn’t give up on Ragovic till the end of his third season and I probably would have been okay with him if he was used sparingly at 15-20 mins per game, while bringing other players along.
But the hate on Anderson while giving Dragovic a pass is just absurd and kind of idiotic. I would tell you that in person.
How can I say this: I don't love ND or give him a pass
ND has won and could win BB games for us. See my post below and 75 comment. This does not make me happy. CBH has not used him right. I think he was one of our top 7 players this year. But this team is not good and that is why I am for playing a player like ND, most years he wouldn’t play and certianly not on a typical CBH defense team. Your 15-20 minutes a game is fine with me, depending on how he plays and how the other team plays him (more in games when he is on). The other can’t be discounted as we saw in the UW game. So we agree, when he is stinking 20 minutes a game or less is fine.
BL is definitely not in the top group of players this year. As long as you are playing to win, you need to play your best players, ND is there and BL is not. I wish it were reverse. You gave up long before I did, which may have been a good decision the way things look now.
JA stunk last year. How do you defend JA not going to see the trainer when hurt? I thought he was healthy now, if he is not I put my caveat back on that you will see I put on almost all my posts on JA that hopefully injuries are causing his problems with speed.
And why give up on Bobo? You call him scrub above. I see him as a potential player more than others. Look he might be a bust but I am not willing to put him there, yet.,
"BL is definitely not in the top group of players this year."
How do you know this? I don’t think we have seen enough to make that judgment this season. Is Ragovic better than him? I doubt it. It is is not possible to be worse than that scrub.
Lane found himself out of position few times last night and frazzled in second half. That happened to the entire f**king team including our seniors who have been melting down all season long.
Yet Lane scored couple of points., did better job than Ragovic in shoring up our interior zone defense, and positioned himself better for rebounds including assisting Honeycutt on a crucial offensive board and tip in. All this while he is a freshman.
As for Bobo, the post excerpted above was not mine. It’s a reason I excerpted it. Still Bobo has had two years in this program, while Lane has been for less than one year.
I doubt Ragovic is the top-7 players in this team.Does because Howland lets him play 35+ minutes a game even though he can makes 7 mistakes in a row doesn’t make him the best 7 players in the team. In your urge to “coach/authority worship” you might defer to Howland’s judgment on that, but I will trust my eyes. I doubt Ragovic would be in top-15 if he walked into the gym at Wooden Center.
Sigh
Put your hatred of ND aside for a second (I notice you did not answer my question on JA),
What makes BL good enough to play now if you are trying to win? He has had 148 minutes, nine appearances of eight or more minutes. Compare to TH or RN, how many minutes did it take you to decide they could play?
Let’s say no ND at all. If you are trying to win right now, do you go to Lane? I think you liked the ML, MAH, MR, TH, RN lineup. isn’t that the a better alternative if you are trying to win?
Now, the season is over. Play BL bench ND. But if you focus on the future, put CBH on notice he needs to recruit better and as Muircoach has explained coach offense better/more.
I have to go now. Thanks for the back and forth and your work here. We should bet on beers again.
That's a very strong post N ...
I’d like to add something that I think will be another theme of the commentary here until this ship gets straightened out.
At some level, everything that happens within the program is Howland’s responsibility. If three recruiting classes were cratered, it’s on him. If Jerime Anderson failed to put in the work in the off season, it’s on him. If the team can’t shoot free throws, that’s on him. He’s responsible.
But while that’s true, it also has a certain, Truman-esque “the buck stops here” quality. It’s all the head man’s responsibility and that pressure comes with the seven figure pay check.
Within that all encompassing responsibility heaped upon the head man, are certain responsibilities that must be borne by players (past and present and by the assistant coaching staff.
And I think this staff is particularly lacking.
In Pittsburgh, Howland had Jaime Dixon. At UCLA, he thought he’s have Dixon, until Dixon was retained by Pitt and so he brought in Kerry Keating. These two are not just “any” assistant coaches. There were recruiting specialists and that quality made them or someone like them absolutely essential to Howland’s chance of success.
Dixon and Keating had some very similar qualities.
Both were excellent scouts, not only of the obvious, star players, but also of the ninth and tenth grade players who were up and coming. They both had the ability to project where a 15 year old would be in a couple of years. It’s not easy as some 15 year olds are fully formed both physically and skill wise and they stand out. But they aren’t going to get any better. The trick is spotting the baby-faced kid who’s still growing and developing.
After that, you have to know how to form relationship with kids, to lay the groundwork, to make them feel special and wanted. You have to speak their language, keep up with their technology. Dixon and Keating both know how to play that game.
You also need great relationships with the many bird dogs and amateur scouts out there. No one can see every player, great recruiting assistants know how to cultivate relationships with the guys on the ground and also know which scouts know what they’re talking about and which are full of crap. It’s not enough to just subscribe to HoopScoop and hope that Clark Francis knows what he’s talking about.
There are also internal skills that go along with the external skills I’ve mentioned (and I haven’t mentioned them all). Dealing with Howland isn’t easy. He is one of those people who feels he is expert if every facet of coaching, whether he is or isn’t. IMO, Howland is a great coach in practice and he’s very good in games. But he’s not necessarily expert in the recruiting skills and he’s surely not the warm and fuzzy personality that some top coaches are (and we can do another thread on retaining existing talent another time).
Dealing with Howland requires some certain skills. One, you need to have the confidence to go out and start recruiting kids whether Howland wants you to recruit them or not. I’m not saying “offer” because at the end of the day he has to sign off on the offers. I’m not arguing that. But you need to start recruiting kids long before Ben has signed off or even seen them.
Why? Look, we all know Ben is focused only on the next game, on the current season. He is not at all good at planning for the future, of looking down the line. This failure is manifest in our abundance of slow power forwards and mismatched talent. So, someone needs to do the planning for him and sometimes in spite of him.
Then, you need to have the guts and the balls to later convince Howland that he should be recruiting certain guys. You can’t wait until he likes someone, you need to convince him to like certain guys. If you don’t you’ll recruit only the guys with huge reputations that everyone likes and spend an inordinate amount of time on them. You’ll get some, miss on others and end up scrambling in between. So, you need a confident recruiting assistant. Interestingly, I think this guy ends up earning Ben’s trust — he wants someone to stand up to him.
Now, it’s time to name names.
I mostly want to exonerate Donny Daniels. From what I’ve heard, he’s not the greatest scout or recruiter but that’s not really his role. His role is to be Ben’s trusty sidekick and I get that Ben needs that. Ben and Donny are the veterans who can do the main coaching of the team in practice and games.
The recruiting failures, IMO, get mostly laid at the feet of Garson and Duncan. After asking a lot of questions of people who know and who follow this stuff more closely than I do, I’ve concluded that these two lack the vision, the organization and the people skills to effectively recruit players and they lack the guts and balls to direct Howland towards the right recruits, even if they could identify them and form the necessary relationships. Duncan in particular is a disappointment because he was thought to be Oregon’s great recruiter and he was brought in to replace Kerry Keating.
From what I’ve gleaned, these guys lack the foresight to identify and start recruiting the right players and they are unable to stand up to Ben and get him to recruit the right guys. As a result, we spend way too much time recruiting obvious five star players we’re never going to get and we’re always late on the kind of players we’d want if only we weren’t last in line and playing catch-up.
My theme for this off season is to stay on the assistants. Howland does not deserve to be fired and he if he’s on the hot seat, it’s still just warm. But his assistants are sitting their butts on a barbecue grill and I feel he must make at least one change if not two in order to get this mess straightened out.
by Achilles on Feb 15, 2010 9:27 AM PST reply actions 6 recs
This is a very important post A
You should either fanpost it today .. or put it on the frontpage … we need to put these assistants – Garson and Duncan – on the spotlight.
Here is why his seat should be hot.
Take away the “below average” recruiting the past few years, take away the differences with style of play, take away his lack of assistants……………..this is why his seat get warmer and warmer:
Suckovic’s stats last night: 34 minutes, 5-14 shooting, 1-7 three-pointers, 1-4 from the FT line, 4 rebounds, 1 assist, 2 steals, and 1 block.
His last game vs. Cal: 1-8 shooting, 0-4 three-pointers, 5-8 FT, 2 rebounds, 1 assist, and 2 blocks.
So, to show how bad my math skills probably are now: That is a combined………….in 65 minutes of play……………………………………………………………………………………………………………..
6-22 shooting, 1-11 three-pointers, 6-12 FT, 6 rebounds, 2 assists, and 3 blocks.
Are you kidding me?!!! And this guy keeps playing!?! We have ALL said that this guy should not be playing, yet ever game, he is trotted out their like an “old mule in a cheap claiming race” to miss shot, after shot, after shot, after shot, after shot, after shot, after shot, after shot, after shot, after shot, after shot, after shot……………AFTER FLIPPIN SHOT!!!
Forget not having the talent because of poor recruiting. How about not recognizing that you don’t have the talent on the bench next to you, but still putting that same talent in the game week after week. You can’t tell me that we don’t have anyone that can do better…..and the above stats don’t even account for him being the shittiest defender on the team.
Yet, Moser takes a great a charge, but god forbid the frosh travels a couple of times. Lane gets minutes, but sets a couple of poor screens and is pulled……….all for more minutes for a lackadasical senior who misses virtually every shot he ever takes.
That is on Ben Howland, squarely on his shoulders. End of story.
by muircoach on Feb 15, 2010 9:31 AM PST reply actions 1 recs
Do you think Howland can do it?
I like your posts because their is coaching experience and humility behind them…
My layman’s gut says Howland can’t turn this thing around,
cause problems this big require big changes,
and he’s proven himself to be a guy who doesn’t change easily.
I get the “ethic” that his four final fours have “earned” him time,
but that to me is much more of a moral claim than a practical one.
Practically speaking, this looks like a program that won’t sniff an elite eight anytime soon,
never mind a final four or a championship.
So really, do you think Howland can turn it around?
I certainly hope so
I still think we have a shot to make an elite eight/Final-4 type of run with a high seed in 2 years. However, few things need to happen which includes finishing up this season with a productive (not necessarily elite or star studded) recruiting class, retention of key players next season, and influx of new talent in the coaching staff. We will see how it unfolds. I think Howland can do it but he also needs to show a willingness to adapt and adjust (which he hasn’t done a great job of in recent years to sustain his initial success in Westwood).
I don't think he can
I don’t think he can recruit the horses to get it done nor do I think he runs a system that can win a championship in this day and age. If this were football he’d be the premier defensive coordinator in the nation, but it’s not. Unfortunately, the basketball coach has a hand in all aspects of the game, and he only excels in one of them.
I will always appreciate how he rebuilt our program, but if he couldn’t win a championship with all the NBA players he had — JF, AA, RW, KL, LRMAM, and DC — then I don’t think he ever will. I think this year is the low point, and I believe he can maintain a certain level of respectability going forward, but I’ve tempered my expectations drastically.
So Silly
He didn’t have all the players at one time. The team was ultimately beaten by better teams who spread the court and frustrated CBH’s help defense. If KL and RW had stayed an additional year, we would have had the best team. 3 final fours is an unbelievable achievement. He got it done. He got us in to the final game. We can always shoot for the very top, and we’ll get there when players stay for 3 or 4 years, but CBH’s achievements speak for themselves.
Also, consider the improvement of PAA, DC, RW, LRMAM and LRM under CBH. He found diamonds in the rough and polished them into good or excellent players. Even KL improved dramatically from beginning of season to end.
Time will tell whether CBH can get the ponies to get us back to the top, and its fair to criticize the talent the team has right now, but to say he isn’t a great coach because he didn’t win the championship “with all the talent we had” is nonsense.
by 75NatChamps on Feb 15, 2010 10:58 PM PST up reply actions
I agree and somewhat disagree
I didn’t imply that he had them all at the same time, merely that he’s had enough NBA talent to win a national title. That Florida team was an all-time team, but we should’ve beaten Memphis. We had the talent to beat them, but he was outcoached by a huckster who doesn’t even really coach. That game has been analyzed here time and time again so I won’t revisit it.
I might be in the minority here, but I attribute the improvement of DC, RW, and LRMAM to the players more so than the coach. The players are the ones dedicating their lives to their craft. The players spend more time working on their game in the offseason than they do during the season. RW left when he should’ve as evidenced by his high lottery draft selection. LRMAM and DC were both rated higher the year before they entered the draft.
What exactly makes RW and DC “diamonds in the rough?” Was it because they were 3-star recruits according the recruiting publications? Just because they were rated as “3-stars” doesn’t mean they were 3-star talent. It just means they didn’t get the exposure as 15 and 16 year-olds that others who played on more visible AAU teams or high school programs received. It’s also because UCLA didn’t recruit either of them until late into their senior seasons. Had UCLA recruited them during their junior years, that attention alone would’ve raised their ratings in the recruiting publications. Case in point: JA, who was an early commitment in his junior year. By the time he graduated high school, he was the 2nd highest rated recruit behind JH in that bust of a 2008 class until the 11th hour signing of JMM. When I watch RW and DC light up the NBA, I commend the athlete more so than their college coach. I might even wonder what might’ve been had we not featured them in an offense that’s generously described as methodical. As N has pointed out frequently as of late, CBH wasn’t the one who discovered them, it was Kerry Keating. Furthermore, I wouldn’t be so quick to attribute KL’s dramatic in-season improvement to CBH as much as I would KL’s progressive acclimation to his teammates and the conditioning required to play college hoops.
I love PAA and LMR but they’re not on the same level as DC, RW, or LRMAM, who are NBA starters. PAA and LMR maximized their talent and ability and we are lucky to call them our own. At the same time I think that they were fortunate to play with truly great players who made it possible for their contributions to shine, otherwise we might be casting them in the same lot as MR and Brickovic, who are role players forced to carry an elite program.
CBH’s achievements do speak for themselves. He’s proven himself three-times over as one of the premier program builders and rebuilders, but the jury is still out if he is a “maintainer.” He took NAU to the tournament. He resurrected the Pitt program and the UCLA program. Is it coincidence that Jamie Dixon has taken HIS Pitt program to greater heights in college basketball’s preeminent league since CBH left? It’s a valid question.
I never said CBH wasn’t a great coach. He is great at what he does. I’m just not as confident as I used to be that he’ll get us that 12th banner. I don’t think he can recruit the kind of transcendental players that can get us through March. I agree with you that if we can get players to stay 3 or 4 years, we’ll be in better shape with the exception that they are players that could leave after 1 or 2 years but stay 3 or 4 as opposed to players who stay 3 or 4 years because they’re not good enough to leave earlier. Otherwise, if we’re going to go the “mid-major route” and rely on experience, then we’re going to have to accept these years of growing pains like we’re having now. It’s incredibly difficult to keep players in school. DC is the RARE exception. Even AA, who is absolutely beloved, left as soon as he possibly could. He tried to leave after his sophomore year with JF, but he couldn’t get a first-round guarantee.
Our program’s precipitous fall has me baffled, and how we got here and how we get back are complex processes that we as fans on the outside can only discern and extrapolate.
Ultimately, the big mystery is
why don’t point guards flock to the program. JF, DC and RW came out of the program as polished point guards, ready to play in the NBA. They come out fundamentally sound so that even a borderline NBA player (fantastic college player, with all the tools – A little to small and slight for the NBA) like DC gets a legitimate look and a place on an NBA roster. With two NBA teams in town, every NBA scout gets an up close and personal look at UCLA players, and many of them get multiple looks. With the UCLA tradition on top of that, it is hard to imagine why we don’t have to beat them off with a stick. Do they really value playing a high flying less structured style, over top flight coaching and a pipeline to the NBA? I guess they do.
by 75NatChamps on Feb 16, 2010 10:07 AM PST up reply actions
Drago's season-long figures (not for the weak of heart)
38% FG shooting, 29% on 3-pointers! (while attempting 5 per game), and 74% from the line.
Our outside shooters, aside from Roll, are just sad. The 3-point % for players that have attempted at least 1 3pter/game
Roll: 44.2% (5.8 att/game)
JA: 38.1% (1 att/game)
MAH: 31.6% (1.1 att/game)
Drago: 29.5% (5.1 att/game)
Lee: 27.9% (3.6 att/game)
TH: 26.3% (1.1 att/game)
Looking ahead to next season without Roll on the team, we don’t have anybody expected to be any good from beyond the arc. I don’t know what scares me more, that we don’t have a likely outside threat for next year, or the possibility that Howland recruits another Drago as a last-second patch for the problem.
formerly bruinhoo
Also, guys with 3pt %'s under 30% combining to shoot 10 3's/game???
Am I the only one that sees a problem with this?
formerly bruinhoo
Interesting to look up perhaps
How dependent we were on 3 point shooting in Howland’s first 4-5 years in Westwood.
As % of Offense
3PT ATT/Total Shot attempts
2006- 34.3%
2007- 33.2%
2008- 28.3* (Thx Kevin)
2009 – 33.3%
2010- 33.5%
Reason PPS is down this year ( ~.05-.07) is two fold ….poor three point shooting and terrible FT shooting.
Nice simple analysis
1 year with legitimate center with post moves = 1 year launching less than 33% of our shots from behind the arc.
by britishbruin on Feb 15, 2010 12:22 PM PST up reply actions
Where are these numbers from?
Ken Pomeroy’s site has very different numbers.
by SuperBruinMan on Feb 15, 2010 6:02 PM PST up reply actions
Pulled off Sheet.Com and ESPN
2006 1987 682 0.343
2007 1987 660 0.331
2008 2164 612 0.282
2009 1973 656 0.332
2009 1263 423 0.334
The 2010 numbers match those published by the Athletic Dept. Pomeroy says his numbers are for D1 games-only which probably explains small differences. Can’t explain the wide divergence in 2009.
I don't even see a DII Game on one of those schedules
so that isn’t the explanation. But just to make sure, looks like Statsheet matches the numbers UCLA Athletic Dept has released for earlier years so you have to ask Ken what service he is pulling his numbers from.
Different Conclusion on Drago
{Nestor read this part 5 times, I don’t like ND}
I think ND is one of the better players on this team (top 5) but he is not a good player and a terrible defender. If you are going to play ND, you have to get offense out of him. To get offense out of him, you have to play him smartly.
1. If he is matched with a big/strong but not quick PF, He should take him off the dribble. For example, when Nickola Vucevic played ND last night, ND took him off the dribble and scored 4-7 (non-threes) and drew 4 fouls on him.
2. When you match a small forward against him, post ND up. He looked good posting small people this year.
3. When ND is hitting the 3s or a team is as stupid as Washington to gear their defense around stopping ND, play him as he can open things up for the rest of our offense. Remember in our wins this year he is 46% from 3 according to stat last night.
4. If a team is smart and plays a big off him until he hits the three, yank him quick unless he hits the open three right away.
5. And most of all, if ND is cold and not producing he should get the hook quickly.
If you are going to play ND, you have to play him smart and keep him in when he is scoring and helping on offense. CBH blew this last night. Vucevi was told to play ND tight and not let him score according to Marques Johnson. Great, then ND should be taking Vucevic off the dribble until they adjust not jacking up 3s. If he had done that all night Vucevic would have been the first to foul out and ND would have scored more points.
Now the season is over and yes by all means sit ND.
It was obvious after JH left that this team would go as Rago goes.
When he is hot or even close, we win. When he bombs, we lose.
How so
We have no idea how this team would have performed if he was limited to 15-18 mins a game. This team developed a sh!tty identity around Rago because Howland convinced himself that this dude was a “leader” and one of his best “shooters” in the team, even though the numbers and on court performance never agreed with Howland.
It failed miserably at the indenty of a man to man defense team
as in losing to CSULB, CSF, etc. So we know it could not play classic CBH BBall. He had to play zone and find more offense, thus ND used right made some sense. Look we might have won last night if ND took it to the hoop on Vucevic four more times instead of four of his three pointers, that should have been good enough for 4 points and fouling out $C’s best rebounder.
Yeah
Ragovic hasn’t shown the ability to use his brain on either ends of the court (and show any desire to play defense) for 4 years and yet people are still expecting that he would start doing it all on a sudden with 7 games left in his last year in Westwood. Okay.
I am talking this year, this team
Remember the +/- post. Remember how good on THIS TEAM ND was?
How do you replace ND’s scoring with this cast of characters? ’
I am not defending ND’s defense, never have, never will. It is one of the reasons we need to play zone this year.
And CBH’s failure to adept to the dynamic of this team is one of the reasons we are going to have a losing season.
Howland realllly screwed the pooch with Rags . . .
Rags was a 1-Star throw-in Howland “scouted” while pursuing a different Serbian guy that had committed and then went pro . . . so BH got the “semipro” Ragsy and has tried to cover his ass by pumping up this organ donor for 4 years. It didnt matter in the beginning because Howland had what was really a miracle run to the Finals on the shoulders of “ugly basketball” and JF. KL’s manchild freakish talent saved BH too . . . and we were lucky becuase the guy really wanted to be a Bruin. I still love the guy, but his formula needs a bit of serious tweaking STAT.
Agree 100% on Recruting
with an addition . I am not sure the Freshman class is not one hit and the rests busts as well.
Pushed too soon - he had (I think - I don't want to waste my time looking) - one foul in those two games.
He just can’t get close enough to his man to foul him.
Crazy thoughts
Has anyone else had some of the crazy thoughts I have had at times this year, that essentially it seems like someone is on the take? Maybe someone that has legal issues, expensive clubbing habits, etc.? In some games, it had appeared to me that some member(s) of our team is(are) trying to lose. How can we explain such low shooting percentages at the line and floor, from players that should be better. I don’t know, but it has crossed my mind a couple of times. Especially with how up and down the team has been. ASU has been through this a few years back.
Louisville, KY for UCLA class of '87
If we had any players
showing more than flashes of strong play, I might consider the thought. Such a situation would require skilled players intentionally playing below their capability. I just don’t think for the most part we have skilled players to start with.
point shaving
Yup, great year for it. Already poor expectations, easy to cover up.
The biggest mystery of all
is how and why Ragovic keeps getting minutes.
The best thing you can do for your children is to love their mother. John Wooden
Howland
This site can sure turn fast. I remember a couple of years ago a few of us were nervous about the team during a seasonal low point and just about got our heads handed to us. Yes, this is a bad year. The Bruins are hard to watch. Anyone notice that UNC is 3-7 in the ACC, or that UConn is 4-8 in Big East? Anybody think they won’t be back? Seven Ben Ball Warriors in the NBA making an impact, including Hollins who got significantly better under Howland, and that sorry ass Holiday. Since practices are closed I’m guessing that the reason some don’t play more is that they aren’t practicing well. Howland is left with few choices. The biggest disappointments are ML And JA. Roll is as good as he will get. Drago is Drago. And some guys…Keefe…simply don’t improve, nor did Shipp over the four years, at least his shot. Morgan is soft. Who knew? Just as things improbably came together in Howland’s third season, they have gone haywire this year.
this topic has been beaten to death
There is no comparison between this year’s UNC team and this year’s UCLA team.
UNC is one year removed from a championship. UCLA is two years removed from a Final Four.
UNC is playing in a conference that will get multiple bids (Joe Lunardi currently projects 7 of 12 members getting invited). UCLA plays in what is a consensus 1-bid league.
When we lost most of our NBA stars, we had a mediocre year, and are following that with a terrible year. UNC lost their stars, and are having a bad year, and expect to bounce back next year. We didn’t have such a precipitous fall that first year, cushioned by some senior leadership, but we also did not reload and bounce back.
A lot of the anger here is not just about this year’s results, but about the way we may not be set up particularly well for next year either.
by britishbruin on Feb 15, 2010 12:17 PM PST up reply actions
You forgot to mention
Florida, which after losing to Xavier on Saturday is sitting out there with an RPI of 54 and a tough close. This may be year THREE of the Gators re-load. I don’t read the Sun Sentinal but my hunch is that Bill Donovan isn’t too worried about finding a real estate agent.
But...
With 7 McD’s All-American’s (at least!) on the roster next year, UNC fans are still looking forward to next year and a deep run.
but is right....
since 2004 CBH has only been able to recruit 10 players who were ranked in the top ten at their position nationally..At the same time NC has recruited (16) Duke (16) Kansas (15) Kentucky (16)..
It may not look like much but with early departure for the NBA the lack of talented depth is kiling us… JMO…
looks like it’s going to be a tuff couple of years for the BBall program….
"Success is never final, Failure is never fatal. It's Courage that count's"
John Wooden.....
Dig the profile pic, BTW.
"In this program your passion bucket must be full to play SC." -- CRN, to Dan Patrick, 1/2008
Warm (Hot...Whatever) Seat
The problem with blogs is that it provides an anonymous forum for those who otherwise wouldn’t (and possibly shouldn’t be heard). I am deeply disappointed by the progress of this season. I am even more disappointed that it appears it may take a few years to fully get us back to the level I would expect. At the same time, I never expected three trips to the Final Four. CBH has done more than I would have expected. While it is fine to provide criticism, I find it incredulous to see the program (and coaching staff) ripped by those sitting in the back seat, many whom have never seen the heat from a kitchen up close, in the belief that they are somehow “helping” by taking shots at players and coaches. In my book, we are fortunate to have CBH and I believe in him and will continue to do so in the best interests of the program. The current players will always have my support as long as they wear the Blue and Gold of UCLA. Tough times provide opportunities, and should be viewed as such. Go Bruins!
by ocobserver on Feb 15, 2010 2:29 PM PST reply actions 1 recs
"The problem with blogs is that it provides an anonymous forum..."
You’re so right. Fans and observers of a program should not be allowed to share their thoughts publicly without disclosing the names listed on their birth certificates, as you so bravely did, “ocobserver.” We can all learn from your profile in courage, not to mention your commitment to free speech and the First Amendment. Godspeed, you American hero!
Twitter feed: @dexterfishmore
by DexterFishmore on Feb 15, 2010 2:59 PM PST up reply actions 1 recs
It dawns on me
That his real name could be OC Observer, in which case we all failed. If that’s the case, my apologies, Mr. Observer.
One day later and I'm still at a loss.
It is unimaginable that are so bad as to get swept by a mid level south central squad that would not make the tournament even if they had not self imposed sanctions. The three things you can count on in this world are Death, Taxes, and UCLA in the tourmanent. And here is where unimaginable becomes inconceivable:
Lavin failed to make the tournament ONCE and got fired. I doubt we’ll make the tournament next year either. Not with a team full of Sophmores and Freshman and no go to guy. Howland has now lost to South Central 3 times in a row? Even Lavin did not achieve that.
I agree that Howland has earned a few more years of leash before he is truly in in danger of losing his job, but if we suck it up in the next 2 to 3 years? Figure another couple of years to right the ship under a new coach, and the word inconcievable jumps out of my throat. Sunrise, Sunset, and UCLA hoops. Except this year and most likely next.
Inconcievable.
The best thing you can do for your children is to love their mother. John Wooden
Anyone notice
that there are no Juniors on this squad? It’s like a whole year of recruits disappeared. I know that’s on CBH, but that would hurt any program.
But hey, what do I know. I’m just the 800 lbs bruin in the room.
part of it is on CBH
2 scholies for the current junior class → KL one and done, CS pushed out
but the other part of it is what happened at the end of the Lavin era. The reason we had only 2 scholarships coming up for the KL/CS class was that we didn’t have any seniors graduating the previous year – because that year’s seniors would have been Trevor Ariza and… that’s it. CBH could have spaced it out by having fewer than the max number of scholarship players in earlier years, but chose to get players on the roster and just deal with the weird cycle. Same thing is going to potentially bite us in a couple of years – next year may have no graduating seniors at all, because of this empty junior class, leaving another ‘lost generation’…
by britishbruin on Feb 16, 2010 12:27 PM PST up reply actions
Well then
if the cycle isn’t broken, we can pretty much expect this type of rollercoaster performance during CBH’s tenure.
I still wonder, how far off we are (at least this year). It seems like a good PG alone would essentially have this team leading the woeful Pac-10. Am I exaggerating in saying that? Fewer turnovers, slightly better FT%, a chance to get set on defense…it seems as though that would have won at least a couple of games this year…hence putting UCLA at the top of the Pac-10.
But hey, what do I know. I’m just the 800 lbs bruin in the room.
well
we’ll see what happens with the cycles. Redshirts etc can smooth that a bit, as can ‘timely’ NBA departures and transfers. I do think it would be better if we had something like an 8 man rotation with a couple of contributors from each class. But you run into difficulties when bad players stay on the squad for 4 years and good players leave after 1,2 or 3…
If we had any of our recent point guards playing for us this season, I agree we would be at the top of the Pac-10. Sadly, that says more about the quality of the Pac-10 than about how far away we are from being a genuinely good team.
To go back to cycles for a minute – this year’s class is loaded with forwards (2PF, 2SF and a center being redshirted), last year’s class had 3 potential PGs and 2 potential centers. That sounds balanced; our problems are that the sophomore class hasn’t produced a starting center or a starting point guard for the current team, and that even if we want to abandon them and play the frosh, we didn’t plan on needing another point guard when we were recruiting the frosh class…
by britishbruin on Feb 16, 2010 2:03 PM PST up reply actions
And they want more money from us to watch this?
I want to focus on Nestor’s comment about how the pressure to raise money for the Pauley renovation will turn up the heat on Howland. I’ve been watching Bruin basketball since I was a kid in 1967, and I am appalled by the current direction of the program. To lose three times in a row to an $C program that is itself in disarray is disgraceful. I have been a season ticket holder and donor to the program since I graduated in the 1980’s. I have been told that once the new system goes into place in a couple of years, I will have to double my annual donation in order to keep my current seats. We’re not talking about hundreds of thousands of dollars, but enough so that I am seriously considering just dumping my season tickets in a couple of years if things don’t get better. And if I’m thinking that way, I’m guessing others are as well. Frankly, I don’t see how things are going to be getting a lot better in a couple of years. I have only seen Tyler Lamb and Josh Smith play once each, but from what I have seen, I don’t think they are the answer. Will the current freshmen improve enough to make things better? Did last year’s freshmen improve this year? As the character Bobbie Fleckman said in the move “Spinal Tap”, “money talks, and bullsh#t walks!” If things don’t get better in a couple of years (and I don’t see how they will), I think that Dan Guerrero may have something to fear in terms of job security, let alone Ben Howland.
Also don't forget
Very soon we will be asked to play in the Forum and other places while Pauley is being renovated. So if the product put together by Howland is not improved in next couple of years, it is going to be even more difficult to get people to watch those games. I just think the Pauley Renovation and the need to fundraise around it will be a huge reason why the pressure on Howland is going to be intense. DG might not say anything in public, but he is going to feel it from folks like you and many others who will be asked to pony up lot more.
The Economics of Mediocrity
Am in total agreement that this fall couldn’t have come at a worse time from a fund raising perspective and that will serve to raise the temperature. But forget fund raising for a moment. Look at what this fall has done to the gate. Here are the relevant numbers for the past decade:
The first column is Ave Attendance, the second is # of home games and the third is the total gate on the season. Right now, the Bruins are running a tick above 8K, but given recent draws and the Oregon dates, I am fading that to 8K on the nose.
9440 16 151040 (2000)
8765 15 131475 (2001)
10021 15 150315 (2002)
8348 15 125220 (2003)
9332 15 139980 (2004)
9213 15 138195 (2005)
8895 17 151215 (2006)
10428 16 166848 (2007)
10580 18 190440 (2008)
9843 18 177174 (2009)
8000 16 128000 (2010)
We have taken out the 2003 lows for ave attendance and it looks like UCLA will be more than 60K off the total 2008 gate. Forget parking and concessions, at just $25 a ticket (we can make all kinds of assumptions here but I think I am being pretty fair), that is more than $1.5M. You think when Dan Guerrero was drawing up his out-year budgets, he was counting on such a shortfall?
Yep
Good research there dkbilson. It’s a point I think that’s worth discussing even more perhaps in a separate fanpost (highlighting the numbers you just pulled up). You should throw that up.
This is what is so amusing. Some people are getting uncomfortable with the issues we are discussing here on BN. It is going to even more uncomfortable when Guerrero will have to deal with numbers presented above (especially if there is no discernible improvement in the program in next two seasons).
The difference between the situations between this and football
Are just weird to me. I understand why, but it just doesn’t sync up in my head. We seem to have a baseline number of people that show up for football. Throw in the fact that we continued to make mediocre bowl appearances meant that the financial pressure wasn’t on Morgan Center to get rid of CTS, although the direction the program was heading might have cratered that program if he wasn’t ousted when he was. With basketball, the bottom seems to drop out really quickly, and what should scare Morgan Center and DG is that last year was supposed to be the image of a down year, and you could already see the trendlines falling wrt attendance. If there really is a lag time on results to attendance, as I suspect there is, then we may have not seen the worst numbers yet. I think it’s clear that compared to the CTS ouster, places like BN or DD will have a relatively minor role compared to the cold hard numbers.
It is a difficult product to watch, for sure
Such horrible basketball IQ and so many unforced turnovers. It is painful for the Bruin faithful to watch. We aren’t fickle, we care too much.
by 75NatChamps on Feb 15, 2010 11:04 PM PST up reply actions
i have been following this site almost daily since 2007. . .
. . . a detail I add so as not to be (at least completely) dismissed because I never post here. I don’t disagree with the substantive points made here about the program, particularly re: recruiting. Game tactics/strategy can be rehashed ad nauseum, but CBH has not changed, the players on the floor have, and the problem with this program is obviously the recruiting. Which brings me to my point: those problems did not burst out of thin air this year. Even in the warrior years it was clear we still were not recruiting the athletes to match up with the likes of Florida. Nestor and Bellerophone have cited classes from 06-08 which were indeed pathetic. But while red flags may have been raised periodically, generally the official tone on this site before this season was always of support for those classes and CBH’s recruiting. I guess while we all expect championships, three final fours did a lot to shut everyone up. Until now. But to turn around when the wheels fall off and start talking about the hot seat and years of systemic failure is disingenuous to me. Having said that, I’d rather have Nestor et. al. firing up the seat warmer than taking this in with complacency. So I guess nevermind and power on.
It is indeed a progression
that led us to this mess, and I don’t think it’s disingenuous – I think it’s the culmination of the recruiting woes you yourself refer to. Up until now, even though recruiting had been heading toward the edge of the cliff, or even barely gone over the edge, we’ve had players that were talented enough to win, and CBH has done well with them. This is the year our recruiting woes have finally gone splat at the bottom of the canyon; CBH can’t do much with the players that remain, and thus the unchanged coach is now having a much different season.
In defense of Nestor
He said earlier that a losing season is not acceptable. That is always a standard. He had a good post showing how elite b-ball schools have off years but not losing seasons.
Having a losing season is not excusable. Yes CBH got bad breaks with Gordon and JH, but he also got a big break with the worst PAC-10 in memory.
Thus, a losing season is “trigger” to a hot seat that was not there in the past. (Nestor has other reasons as well but that is one BIG difference that was never there before. The first year of CBH was really a Lavin hangover and does not count.)
recruiting
Now we have to figure out why a school as rich in tradition as Ucla is struggling to land top talent?
Is the problen CBH? Academics?
I forgot that the bruins will have to play games in places like the forum – we might be lucky and draw 5,000 per game… Horrible…
"Success is never final, Failure is never fatal. It's Courage that count's"
John Wooden.....
Forum is not a horrible venue
The seating goes right to the floor on all four sides and rises vertically very quickly, creating great sight lines for the entire lower level and a good deal of the upper level. Of course it is dated and in Inglewood, rather than on campus, which will deter student participation. It will be easier to get to for some and harder for others of the Bruin faithful. The Forum also enjoys the storied tradition of the Showtime Lakers. It has the Forum Club facility that UCLA bigshots might be able to use. The key is to have a product that people will come to see. Everything comes down to recruiting.

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