Avoiding the 8/9 game (Pac-10 Tourney scenarios)
Bumped. GO BRUINS. -N
I know this men's basketball team is awful and has an extremely small chance of winning the Pac-10 Tournament to get a NCAA tourney bid. But while the chance is greater than zero, we will still be hoping for the miracle.
The Bruins' chances of winning the Pac-10 Tournament become better if they can avoid playing in the first round and only need to win three games instead of four. Even though they're 8-8, the Bruins can still finish as high as the #2 seed but as low as the #8 seed. As mediocre as the Pac-10 is, I don't see much difference between finishing anywhere between #2 and #7, it's only the #8 spot that is the problem. While there is no 7 vs. 10 game because USC has been exposed as cheaters, there is still the 8 vs. 9 game on the Wednesday of tournament week.
Here's what would have to happen for UCLA to get the #8 seed:
UCLA loses at Arizona AND Arizona State
Stanford wins at home against Cal
Oregon State wins at home against Washington State AND Washington
Oregon wins at home against Washington AND Washington State
Yes, it's a longshot. Something to look at though since I'm not confident the Bruins can win either road game this week.
For the optimists, what it would take for UCLA to get the #2 seed:
UCLA wins at Arizona AND Arizona State
Arizona State loses at home to USC
Washington loses to Oregon OR Oregon State
Explaining the ties after the jump.
Current Standings
1. CAL 12-5
2. ASU 10-6
3. WASH 9-7
4. USC 8-8
5. ARIZ 8-8
6. UCLA 8-8
7. OSU 7-9
8. STAN 7-10
9. WSU 6-10
10. ORE 6-10
Seedings in doomsday scenario (UCLA gets #8 seed)
5. OSU 9-9
6. STAN 8-10
7. ORE 8-10
8. UCLA 8-10
9. WSU 6-12
Seedings in optimist scenario (UCLA gets #2 seed)
1. CAL 13-5/12-6
2. UCLA 10-8
3/4. WASH 10-8/9-9
4/3. ASU 10-8
Explaining the tiebreakers:
#8 scenario:
UCLA would lose the three-way tiebreaker by going 1-3 against Stanford and Oregon (Stanford going 3-1, Oregon 2-2). Oregon State would need to finish ahead of that group for UCLA to get #8, because UCLA went 2-0 against the Beavers. UCLA doesn't finish last in any tiebreaker group that involves OSU (UCLA, OSU, STAN, ORE or UCLA, OSU, STAN, WSU), so that's why there's only one scenario in which UCLA finishes 8th.
#2 scenario:
If UCLA and ASU both finished 10-8, UCLA would hold tiebreaker over them because of season sweep. If Washington got involved at 10-8, Washington split against both schools, so UCLA would still hold tiebreaker.
Source used: From the Pac-10 media guide (PDF file)
1. Two-team tie
a. Results of head-to-head competition during the regular season.
b. Each team’s record vs. the team occupying the highest position in the final regular standings, and then continuing down through the standings
until one team gains an advantage.
When arriving at another group of tied teams while comparing records, use each team’s record against the collective tied teams as a group (prior
to that group’s own tie-breaking procedure), rather than the performance against individual tied teams.
c. Won-lost percentage against all Division I opponents.
d. Coin toss conducted by the Commissioner or designee.
2. Multiple-team tie
a. Results of collective head-to-head competition during the regular season among the tied teams.
b. If more than two teams are still tied, each of the tied team’s record vs. the team occupying the highest position in the final regular season standings,
and then continuing down through the standings until one team gains an advantage.
When arriving at another group of tied teams while comparing records, use each team’s record against the collective tied teams as a group (prior
to that group’s own tie-breaking procedure), rather than the performance against individual tied teams.
If at any point the multiple-team tie is reduced to two teams, the two-team tie-breaking procedure will be applied.
c. Won-lost percentage against all Division I opponents.
d. Coin toss conducted by the Commissioner or designee.
This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of BruinsNation's (BN) editors. It does reflect the views of this particular fan though, which is as important as the views of BN's editors.
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Comments
I find it incredible
that we have a better shot at the 2 seed than the 8 seed in the tournament. Not to be pessimistic, but this season needs to end already.
Seriously
My mind is already all about baseball right now. We might get more baseball wins by April than the entire season of Basketball… meh.
It wouldn't be a terrible season without it
In both the final year of Lavin and first year of Howland, we didn’t qualify for the Pac-10 Tournament until the final day (back then, only the top 8 teams made it).
One of the two years (don’t remember which) we needed a USC win to get in the top 8. It felt wrong rooting for them.
Thanks for all your effort, good info.
Sideout, I agree with you about the season needing to end unless, Rago sits on the bench and we lets the kids play. I would love to see them be able to get as many games in as possible and also see what they are capable of with some good minutes.
I thought this was about Women's Bball
I agree that we want to avoid the 8/9 game in the first round there too though :)
My scenario
I figure the Bruins play two competitive games on the trip but fade in the final 10 minutes ending up at 8-10 in conference. Projecting winners in the conference is darn near impossible, but getting out on a ledge I can see the Bruins finishing tied with OSU and ending up the fifth seed and facing U of A in the 4-5 game.
Life is what happens when you're busy making plans.
thanks for the post
appreciate knowing where we stand

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