Avoiding the 8/9 game (Pac-10 Tourney scenarios)

Bumped. GO BRUINS. -N

I know this men's basketball team is awful and has an extremely small chance of winning the Pac-10 Tournament to get a NCAA tourney bid. But while the chance is greater than zero, we will still be hoping for the miracle.

The Bruins' chances of winning the Pac-10 Tournament become better if they can avoid playing in the first round and only need to win three games instead of four. Even though they're 8-8, the Bruins can still finish as high as the #2 seed but as low as the #8 seed. As mediocre as the Pac-10 is, I don't see much difference between finishing anywhere between #2 and #7, it's only the #8 spot that is the problem. While there is no 7 vs. 10 game because USC has been exposed as cheaters, there is still the 8 vs. 9 game on the Wednesday of tournament week.

Here's what would have to happen for UCLA to get the #8 seed:

UCLA loses at Arizona AND Arizona State
Stanford wins at home against Cal
Oregon State wins at home against Washington State AND Washington
Oregon wins at home against Washington AND Washington State

Yes, it's a longshot. Something to look at though since I'm not confident the Bruins can win either road game this week.

For the optimists, what it would take for UCLA to get the #2 seed:

UCLA wins at Arizona AND Arizona State
Arizona State loses at home to USC
Washington loses to Oregon OR Oregon State

Explaining the ties after the jump.

Current Standings
1.  CAL   12-5
2.  ASU  10-6
3.  WASH  9-7
4.  USC  8-8
5.  ARIZ  8-8
6.  UCLA  8-8
7.  OSU  7-9
8.  STAN  7-10
9.  WSU  6-10
10. ORE  6-10

Seedings in doomsday scenario (UCLA gets #8 seed)
5.  OSU  9-9
6.  STAN  8-10
7.  ORE  8-10
8.  UCLA  8-10
9.  WSU  6-12

Seedings in optimist scenario (UCLA gets #2 seed)
1.  CAL  13-5/12-6
2.  UCLA  10-8
3/4.  WASH  10-8/9-9
4/3.  ASU  10-8

Explaining the tiebreakers:

#8 scenario:

UCLA would lose the three-way tiebreaker by going 1-3 against Stanford and Oregon (Stanford going 3-1, Oregon 2-2). Oregon State would need to finish ahead of that group for UCLA to get #8, because UCLA went 2-0 against the Beavers. UCLA doesn't finish last in any tiebreaker group that involves OSU (UCLA, OSU, STAN, ORE or UCLA, OSU, STAN, WSU), so that's why there's only one scenario in which UCLA finishes 8th.

#2 scenario:

If UCLA and ASU both finished 10-8, UCLA would hold tiebreaker over them because of season sweep. If Washington got involved at 10-8, Washington split against both schools, so UCLA would still hold tiebreaker.

Source used: From the Pac-10 media guide (PDF file)

1. Two-team tie
a. Results of head-to-head competition during the regular season.
b. Each team’s record vs. the team occupying the highest position in the final regular standings, and then continuing down through the standings
until one team gains an advantage.
When arriving at another group of tied teams while comparing records, use each team’s record against the collective tied teams as a group (prior
to that group’s own tie-breaking procedure), rather than the performance against individual tied teams.
c. Won-lost percentage against all Division I opponents.
d. Coin toss conducted by the Commissioner or designee.

2. Multiple-team tie
a. Results of collective head-to-head competition during the regular season among the tied teams.
b. If more than two teams are still tied, each of the tied team’s record vs. the team occupying the highest position in the final regular season standings,
and then continuing down through the standings until one team gains an advantage.
When arriving at another group of tied teams while comparing records, use each team’s record against the collective tied teams as a group (prior
to that group’s own tie-breaking procedure), rather than the performance against individual tied teams.
If at any point the multiple-team tie is reduced to two teams, the two-team tie-breaking procedure will be applied.
c. Won-lost percentage against all Division I opponents.
d. Coin toss conducted by the Commissioner or designee.