Player retention: UCLA under CBH vs. Kansas under Self

by KSBruin on Mar 19, 2010 9:02 AM PDT

Prompted by a comment from LVBruin in this post regarding players staying in our program or leaving early, I decided to do a little research. I crunched some numbers first for UCLA. nickramz then talked about the correlation between retention and sustained success, so I figured I’d check on Kansas. Yes, I live here now, but both are high-level programs with a record of (at least mostly) success under their current coach, and both coaches conveniently started at the same time.

This was originally posted as a series of comments in the post linked above, but I've consolidated the info as a separate fanpost.

Please note that I am not at all suggesting we fire CBH and hire Self. I’ve said before and I’ll say again, I believe CBH deserves at least one more year. If the slide/malaise continues, I’d probably call for his ouster after one more year. If there’s significant improvement along with coaching personnel changes, I hope he’s still the man for many years to come. This all came about when LV’s post made me wonder about our player retention, so I did some checking to see what the numbers were. Once I start wondering about something, I want to go find the answers – so I did. Just some numbers to throw out there.

UCLA

Players who have already left through graduation or other means, and years with UCLA:

4 years JS LMR PAA MR DC ND JK MAH
(MAH was recruited by CBH even though not scholarship at first, and I’m counting him 4 years in the program though I know he had another year of eligibility)

3 years AA LRMAM (both to NBA)

2 years JF RW (both to NBA) Ryan Wright (transfer)

1.1875 years DG (transfer)

1 year KL (NBA, as expected) JH (NBA) Chace Stanback (transfer)

So some brief number-crunching…17 of CBH’s recruits have come and gone. I won’t even figure KL into any of my UCLA stats, as it was 99% positive he would be a one-and-done from the start, so let’s look at the other 16. 8 of them stayed four years. 10 of them (62.5%) stayed at least three years. That still means 6 of 16 non-KL recruits left after two years or less. Even if you were to assume that JF, AA, LRMAM, and RW all went pro when they ‘should’ have, still 4 of 16 non-KL recruits that are gone left early. These numbers do not include Ariza, who foolishly went pro after his freshman year with CBH (yes, I know he’s good now, but he was stupid to leave when he did) since he was not a CBH recruit.

None of the above numbers include non-seniors from the season that just mercifully finished. If JMM and MM do transfer out, then 6 of 23 (26%) total non-KL recruits would have left early. If JMM and MM transfer and if TH or ML leaves before they ‘should’, then we’d be at 30% of recruits leaving early.

Granted, the preceding paragraph has a lot of ifs in it. Regardless, even the 25% we’re at with players we know are gone isn’t very impressive.

Kansas

16 of Self’s recruits have come and gone, including departures for all reasons.

4 left for the NBA – two after two years, two after three years.
1 was dismissed from the team in the first days of his soph year. (Hmmm…)
4 transferred out, all after one year each.
7 played out four years, including the seniors from this year’s team. (2 of these 7 were recruited/played as invited walk-ons.)

These numbers do not include the four (or at least three, I’m not quite sure) Roy Williams recruits that transferred within a year of Bill Self’s arrival.

Counting players on the current team, there are 29 total recruits for Self.
Totals of 4 transfers and 1 dismissal aren’t likely to change.
Cole Aldrich may (should?) go pro after this year – haven’t read enough to know if he’s shown any leanings. Xavier Henry will absolutely not stay past two years, and I’d be shocked (again with no info) if he stays for his soph year. (2 of the transfers were freshmen in 08-09 who then ‘chose’ to leave, conveniently opening up space for CJ Henry and his little brother X Henry. Haven’t read enough to see if there’s anything to those conspiracy theories.)

I hadn't really paid any attention to KU's program this year, so I don't have any feel of who left for the NBA early because they were ready, and who 'should' not have left.

Now to compare.

So…assuming for the sake of argument that Aldrich goes pro, and Xavier Henry and one other current player (probably Marcus Morris or Tyshawn Taylor would be my guesses, if you’re scoring at home) go pro instead of playing four years, and all other current KU players stay four years, here’s the breakdown. I’ll include both KL and X Henry in the comparison stats to equal out the (likely) one-and-dones.

Recruits who have come and gone, including this year’s seniors: UCLA 17 KU 16

Of those, recruits staying four years: UCLA 8 KU 7
            stayed three or four years: UCLA 11 KU 9
              transferred or dismissed:     UCLA 3 KU 5
              to NBA at some point before senior year:   UCLA 6 KU 7
              not included in above number, but transfers of recruits from previous coach: UCLA 1    KU 3 or 4

Total recruits since the head coach arrived:   UCLA 23 KU 29
Of those, known transfers/dismissals:           UCLA 3 KU 5
            to the NBA before four years:     UCLA 6      KU 7 (UCLA not counting any current players, 1-2 may be good enough after soph/jr)

What did they do with those recruits? Conveniently, both coaches started the same year. Records and NCAA results:

2003-04 UCLA 11-17
KU 24-9, 1st round

2004-05 UCLA 18-11, 1st round
KU 23-7, 1st round

2005-06 UCLA 32-7, F4
KU 25-8, 1st round

2006-07 UCLA 30-6, F4
KU 33-5, E8

2007-08 UCLA 35-4, F4
KU 37-3, national champions

2008-09 UCLA 26-9, 2nd round
KU 27-8, S16

2009-10 UCLA 14-18
KU 32-2, ???

CBH 166-72 .697
Self 201-42 (including 1st round win over Lehigh) .828

My disclaimer once more: I support CBH as our coach. I truly hope he can turn things back around, though I'll admit my confidence in that happening kept dropping week after week during the season. I want to be wrong. Regardless, these numbers are simply provided for comparison.

This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of BruinsNation's (BN) editors. It does reflect the views of this particular fan though, which is as important as the views of BN's editors.

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Comments

I hate when other people do this to me

but I guess I will do it to you and be a hypocrite:

I think the real question is the retention of recruits who have the opportunity to play in the NBA. A secondary less important question is the retention of players who tranfer to other schools but are high contributors at that school.

I love Michael Roll, but really where was Roll, or Drago for that matter going to go? They are not NBA caliber. I guess they could transfer?

But the real question again in my mind is do you retain the type of players that are necessary to play at an elite level?

by silverlakebruin on Mar 19, 2010 9:53 AM PDT reply actions

I fully agree some players

are more important than others. We don’t know how a player may fare when they transfer out, though: Ryan Wright and Chace Stanback didn’t contribute much at UCLA (for whatever reason, be it skill/coach/whatever), but both have been solid contributors to their teams this year. You never know if a player who transfers out may not have seen success later if they stayed. I’m not saying no player should ever transfer; I know some do so for personal reasons, and others just have a personality clash with the coaching staff – I’ve seen that before when I taught. I’m sure there are lots of teams that would be happy to have had Roll. Perhaps he wouldn’t start too many places, but it never hurts to have a shooter on the roster.

I think the issue of retaining top players is a nationwide one. Sure, there are players like Sherron Collins who could have been a lottery pick last year but came back, but any player good enough to play D-1 ball has dreamed of playing in the NBA since they were kids (even though some may have since realized it’s not realistic for them). To tell an 18-20-year-old player they can either go back to another year at school or go make $5+ million a year, it’s not a hard decision for most.

I will throw out again that I didn’t originally do the math to promote any particular view – I just thought it would be interesting to look into LVBruin’s hunch. That being said, I certainly think it can be good to discuss the results.

by KSBruin on Mar 19, 2010 11:21 AM PDT up reply actions

I'd Put

Sherron Collins in the same catagory as our DC—absolutely could have gone, but stayed.

Obviously, staying can be for “personal reasons,” as much as leaving—or transferring, for that matter. I think that’s the case for both of these players, and I’d personally have doubts about the “predictability” of that based upon any fact available during the recruiting process.

Love My Bruins

by Bruingirl83 on Mar 19, 2010 12:23 PM PDT up reply actions

To retain or not to retain, that is the question.

Great research, KS. I rec’d this yesterday when you posted it, as it highlights a critical component in the maintenance of success — a point in which UCLA has failed significantly

I agree with the point silverlake made above, who you retain and who you lose is the key:

We lost KL, AA, JF, RW, LRMAM, TA, JH when they still had eligibility. We would have been better if we had kept them, and probably – almost assuredly – would have another banner for it. Failure to retain them was devastating to the team.

We lost CS, RWright, DG when they still had eligibility. The effect of this is undecided at this point, but has not been shown to be a difference maker, yet.

We kept DC when he could have left. Retention was a benefit for the team. (I would add LRM, JS, PAA2 to a lesser degree here).

We kept MR and JK this year, but they didn’t really have anywhere else to go. The results were not meaningfully better with them. Retention wasn’t an issue and didn’t matter.

We kept ND and it was a huge detriment to us this year (and perhaps for upcoming years). Retention sucked!

A further example, Florida retained a championship team, and won another. KS retained Rush and won a championship. UNC retained a Final 4 team and won a championship.

Overall, retention has been a failure for UCLA. DC notwithstanding, we have lost much more through early defections to the NBA than we have gained by players staying when they could have left.

We have all discussed the importance of identifying the “right” recruits for our program. Similarly, it is critical for UCLA to identify those key components to our success that we already have in Westwood, and find a way to get them to want to stay when they no longer have to.

greg in denver - UCLA guy for life

by gbruin on Mar 19, 2010 3:26 PM PDT up reply actions

I'll point out that Bill Self took over for Roy Williams

While CBH took over for Steve Lavin. I would consider that a very big head start.

Of course once we reached 3 Final Fours we were playing on equal playing fields, so that excuse only goes so far.

The best thing you can do for your children is to love their mother. John Wooden

by MexiBruin on Mar 19, 2010 10:06 AM PDT reply actions

unclear

whether the Lavin situation set us up for a boom and bust cycle – would the likes of JF and AA turned pro as soon as they did if they hadn’t played ~35 mins per game as freshmen, for example? We were able to load up early with some big classes, but then had no margin for error on the smaller classes (e.g. no seniors next year after KL 1-and-done and CS transfer).

Also, in general, I think guys who get huge minutes as freshmen are likely to leave earlier than guys who mostly sit a year; but you typically get more from guys in their soph years onwards. Maybe JF leaves after his junior year, AA after his senior year, and we get slightly more out of them than we did, if we had had a smooth transition at a high level of talent rather than two years in the tank with Lavin’s last year and CBH’s first.

Not citing these things as an excuse, but more as a thought on why we managed a surprising amount of sustained success followed by a decline and fall…

by britishbruin on Mar 19, 2010 10:47 AM PDT up reply actions

To some extent

those who see huge minutes as freshmen are those whose play earns it, and a player who deserves significant minutes as a freshman will in most circumstances be a player skilled enough to jump to the NBA with less than 4 years in college.

by KSBruin on Mar 19, 2010 11:24 AM PDT up reply actions

to some extent...

but I think (say) JA and ML would have got significant minutes if they had been on the 2004-5 squad instead of JF and AA. Not quite so many – presumably more Brian Morrison(!) time – but a lot more than they did get. Not that JA would then have been likely to go pro… but I think we now have a shot at having senior ML, and am almost certain we will have junior ML, which may not have happened if he had been starting at the 2 for the last 2 years.

by britishbruin on Mar 19, 2010 12:44 PM PDT up reply actions

How about Chase Stanback on that same post-Lavin squad?

I think he sees significant time on the court, whereas he was relegated to being the best playter on the court during garbage time for some very talented teams.

by LVBruin on Mar 19, 2010 12:47 PM PDT up reply actions

yeah

he would have got time and probably stayed 4 years rather than transferring…

by britishbruin on Mar 20, 2010 5:03 PM PDT up reply actions

can we add

that Self has choked away some tournament games against vastly inferior opponents? There is some gnashing of teeth over whether CBH ought to have been able to overcome Florida or Memphis in one of his three chances, but we have consistently beaten the teams we were supposed to beat…

by britishbruin on Mar 20, 2010 5:07 PM PDT reply actions

Not to mention

UCLA knocked off Kansas the last time they met in the tournament.

by SuperBruinMan on Mar 21, 2010 12:26 AM PDT up reply actions

so Bill Self is as successful as Jim Harrick ...

Who to date has been more successful than Ben Howland. In Harrick’s 7th year UCLA basketball was as strong as ever. In Howland’s 7th year Bruins put together one of the most disgraceful season in the history of UCLA hoops.

by Nestor on Mar 21, 2010 8:26 AM PDT up reply actions