The Bombs Away Award (for Most Undeserved Green Light)
by LVBruin on Mar 9, 2010 4:09 AM PST
Email
PrintBumped. GO BRUINS. -N
On the way home from Tempe (yes I'm a glutton for punishment) I got to thinking, "has there ever been a worse shooting Bruin that has been allowed to jack up as many threes as Rags this season?" When I got home, I checked the numbers as far back as I could (unfortunately that was just 14 years, so these stats will encompass the CBH and Lizard eras). First I checked missed threes per game minus made threes per game (a statistic I named the "Inexplicable Green Light Number") and generated the following list:
| Yr | Player | GM | 3FGM | 3FGA | IGLN |
| Sr | Nikola Dragovic | 28 | 44 | 150 | 2.21 |
| Jr | Josh Shipp | 39 | 70 | 216 | 1.95 |
| Fr | JaRon Rush | 28 | 27 | 102 | 1.71 |
| So | Jordan Farmar | 37 | 63 | 189 | 1.7 |
| So | Malcolm Lee | 30 | 25 | 99 | 1.63 |
| Jr | Arron Afflalo | 36 | 87 | 232 | 1.61 |
| Fr | Trevor Ariza | 25 | 18 | 76 | 1.6 |
| Jr | Ray Young | 31 | 18 | 85 | 1.58 |
| So | Arron Afflalo | 39 | 83 | 227 | 1.56 |
| Sr | Toby Bailey | 33 | 47 | 145 | 1.55 |
So while the top portion of the list made sense with ND at #1 and junior year JS at #2 (remember the infamous slump), I realized that AA earned the #6 spot despite shooting over 38% that season by virtue of the fact that he put up 232 attempts. So then I decided to check ND's numbers against some really bad shooters.
Here are the Bruins that took the most threes per game despite shooting less than 30% from downtown:
| Yr | Player | GM | 3FGM | 3FGA | 3FG% | 3PA/GM |
| Sr | Nikola Dragovic | 28 | 44 | 150 | 29% | 5.36 |
| Fr | JaRon Rush | 29 | 27 | 102 | 26% | 3.52 |
| So | Malcolm Lee | 30 | 25 | 99 | 25% | 3.3 |
| Fr | Josh Shipp | 29 | 25 | 89 | 28% | 3.07 |
| Fr | Trevor Ariza | 25 | 18 | 76 | 24% | 3.04 |
| Jr | Ray Young | 32 | 18 | 85 | 21% | 2.66 |
| So | Nikola Dragovic | 25 | 10 | 42 | 24% | 1.68 |
| Jr | Kris Johnson | 32 | 15 | 51 | 29% | 1.59 |
| Fr | Dijon Thompson | 33 | 13 | 48 | 27% | 1.45 |
| Fr | Matt Barnes | 30 | 10 | 34 | 29% | 1.13 |
Two things stood out to me about this list: the difference between first and second (especially when you consider that Jaron Rush's squad averaged 10 more possessions per 40 minutes) and the fact that ND is the only Senior on a list full of freshmen.
I know that saying ND jacks up too many shots for a bad shooter is beating a dead horse around these parts but I thought the numbers were too eye-popping not to share.
This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of BruinsNation's (BN) editors. It does reflect the views of this particular fan though, which is as important as the views of BN's editors.
23 comments
|
4 recs |
Do you like this story?
Comments
Remember how "bad" Luc was?
Statistically he was no different than Rago this year (+/- 30% shooter). The difference was the fact that Luc was an all-american defender at the other end of the floor, and never launched as MANY bombs as Rago.
No way to know this but ...
I’d bet that ND takes more 3’s early in the clock than anyone else.
That’s a lot different than being the guy with 2 seconds on the shot clock, stuck outside the 3 line and having to throw up a shot or forfeit the ball.
It’s not just ND’s percentage that kills me, it’s that he kills possessions by jacking up 3’s instead of trying to help us get a better shot.
sjh
I've always thought of Drago as the anti-DC in that regard
DC had an amazing penchant for saving possessions with last second heaves. Drago has an amazing ability to kill a possession before it even starts.
I still like
the comparison to a baseball slugger who tries to hit a five-run homer (yes, I know that is not possible) with three men on and no outs, and grounds one meekly to the mound for a double play, thus killing the rally.
Another thing that sticks out
is that if Rags wasn’t so bad this year, there would be a lot more talk of how bad ML was this year at hitting the 3.
I like your analysis.
My high school (calculus? civics?) teacher was fond of saying, “figures never lie, but liars often figure” his point is that we can make statistics say just about anything to support many untenable positions.
In your case, I thought it was really effective to compare Attempts to 3s made. You should copyright your ‘Inexplicable Green Light’ statistic before BSPN starts using it every single night.
The best thing you can do for your children is to love their mother. John Wooden
There are lies, damned lies and statistics
I always think of that phrase to try and keep myself honest when doing statistical research and analysis.
right
and this is a bit arbitary, given that you start with a hypothesis on one player.
An alternative analyst starting with “has any shooter as poor as Malcolm Lee ever been allowed to jack up as many 3-point shots” would find that no player shooting 25% or less has ever come close to matching ML’s 99 attempts this season… and that no sophomore player shooting 25% or less has attempted nearly so many shots per game (ML’s 3.3 compared with ND’s 1.68 as a soph is nearly double!)
etc etc
That analysis would show that ML is the person most deserving of your award, depending on your starting point…
Agreed but...
what’s worse, ML a 25% three point shooter jacking up 99 attempts or freshman LRMAM a 13% three point shooter putting up 38 attempts. Combining percentages and volume of shots makes it tough to quantify the undeserved green light that I’m talking about.
As far as the numbers in my original post being arbitrary, I’ll admit that I used the "below 30% figure because ND is currently at 29% but the first chart outlines an equation I just came up with that I felt worked to indicate which players shot more than they deserved, it just so happened that ND ended up #1. Now whether or not I would have posted my findings if ND wasn’t at the top of the list is another debate : )
lol
‘publication bias’
As to the first chart – I’m not sure it captures ‘inexplicable green light’ exactly, because a 45% shooter who shot the ball a LOT would have a bigger number on that metric than a 43% shooter who didn’t shoot very much. If I had a 49% shooter and a 45% shooter, I’d prefer the 49% shooter to take every shot (if he remained at 49%), but that would not fit the analysis – so I am not sure whether a particular single metric captures the concept. I think the combination of low percentage shooter and high percentage of team shots indicates the point made – I’m not sure what the additional metric gives you exactly. (or rather – I understand the concept you are trying to get at, but don’t know if there is a metric really can capture it)
and yes
I presume that there aren’t many players who have put up 38 attempts while shooting only 13% – another unique combination…
Malcolm Lee is a sophomore
who hasn’t gone through 4 years in Howland’s program. Pretty reasonable to assume a well coached senior wouldn’t play like a such an undisciplined, selfish tool in his senior season.
As a senior the numbers above from Rag is simply inexcusable. Contorting the analysis above to go after Lee … doesn’t take away the ridiculousness of the numbers concerning Rag.
certainly doesn't take away from the point about ND
he took an unjustifiably large number of shots this season given his low shooting percentage.
Don’t think I was ‘contorting’ anything to ‘go after’ Lee – his numbers also speak for themselves. No NBA for him unless he adds some extra offensive dimensions to his game, whether it is an outside shot, ability to penetrate with the ball in his hands, ability to knock down FTs.
Sounds good
Def. no NBA for him in a rationale world. However, if he even thinks about “testing” the waters … well that will open up a new set of questions I don’t even want to think about.
on the positive side
I am sure if he tests the waters he’ll be told how far he needs to come before he can even think about getting drafted.
“Kid, you’re a combo guard – a shooting guard who can’t shoot mixed with a point guard who can’t create mixed with a pure athlete who gets cramps half-way through games playing in a zone defense. If you want to be an NBA player you need to focus on becoming a relentless defensive leader, develop a somewhat more rounded offensive game and work on your conditioning so that you can be a credible NBA 7th man”
Not to be too brutal
But ML cramps up playing only twice a week on a trip that would be considered an easy one by NBA standards. No way, no how is he even close to being able to compete on an NBA level until he can iron out his cramping issues.
I still find it comical
that Howland and many others thought that ND’s streaky shooting streak in the latter part of last year was indicative of a trend breaker and made him suddenly a good shooter.
by silverlakebruin on Mar 9, 2010 10:09 AM PST reply actions
Well there are two NBA players on this list...
So maybe in 4 years when Drago is a senior, he will be a good shooter and be our lethal weapon.
Whats that? He’s a senior??? Crap. Good riddance.
Comments For This Post Are Closed
Secondary Sidebar
User Tools
FanPosts
Community blog posts and discussion.
Certain photos copyright © 2012 by Associated Press or Getty Images. Any commercial use or distribution without the express written consent of Associated Press and Getty Images is strictly prohibited.
