Womens Basketball: 2009-10 Pac-10 Look Back, Pac-10 Tournament Preview

Bumped. GO BRUINS. -N

From WBB vs. ASU

I warn you right now that between taking a look back at the pac-10 season and the upcoming pac-10 tournament tournament, this post may be a little lengthy, but i thought it best to consolidate everything in one post instead of splitting into 2 posts.

The Pac-10 regular season is over.  Here are the final standings:

Stanford 28-1, 18-0
UCLA 22-7, 15-3
USC  18-11, 12-6
California 17-12, 11-7
Arizona State 17-12, 9-9
Oregon 16-14, 7-11
Washington 12-16, 7-11
Arizona 13-16, 6-12
Washington State 8-21, 3-15
Oregon State 10-19, 2-16

There are quite a few things that stand out from these rankings and where the teams have come from the end of the non-conference season.

*Stanford really went through the entire season without too much of a challenge, minus their one loss at UCONN and a scary 2nd half against UCLA in Pauley Pavillion.  After a very strong non-conference schedule, they have played a weaker conference schedule, so it should be interesting to see how they react to facing some of the top teams around the nation once again.

*UCLA was predicted to finish 4th this year in the pac-10, and as i've been mentioning for the last few weeks, Nikki Caldwell has been tieing and breaking UCLA records this season.  On the one hand, expectations should be tempered in that UCLA is only 2-7 against RPI top 50 teams, but 3 of those loses came against top 3 teams in the nation (2 on the road), and another 2 without the services of Jasmine Dixon.  On the other hand, UCLA is finally back in the nation's eye as an up and coming program, and while UCLA had moments in games where they lost focus, UCLA did not sustain a single bad loss all season, which is much more than we can say about any UCLA team in a long time.

From WBB vs. U$C

*USC has blown hot and cold.  USC came into conference season as perhaps the most impressive team not named Stanford, with quality non-conference victories despite a team depleted by injuries.  Then they start conference season 7-1 with a big victory over UCLA and it looks like they would be the favorites for 2nd place in conference, but the team then imploded with 5 loses in a row capped by a TERRIBLE loss at home to Washington State, but is now on a 5 game winning streak heading into the conference tournament that they get to host.

*Cal and ASU, traditionally 2 Pac-10 powers have been down this year and UCLA and USC have over taken them, but both teams feature strong defensive play, and both have RPIs strong enough that they have not been eliminated from NCAA talk, but they would both need to make a major move in the pac-10 tournament, but since they play each other in the first round, one of them will be eliminated from consideration.

*Washington was chosen to finish last place in conference, so despite their less than strong record, they've been able to surprise a few teams despite having several injuries and defections from their roster, which is impressive.

*Oregon remains the most dangerous bad team you can find.  Their offense has lit up almost everyone they've played, but they don't have the wins to show for it because their defense has been atrocious.  It certainly makes for a fun style to watch and i'm sure is appealing to recruits which is probably the idea, but scoring 80 points doesn't matter much when you give up 100.

Really, this has been a great 2nd year for Nikki Caldwell and UCLA.  It's almost sad to think what could have been if UCLA could have hit their freethrows at the Galen center and played even half as good in the first half as they did in the second half of the Stanford game at Pauley that this team could be tied with Stanford at 17-1, but as it is 15-3 is not too shabby.  UCLA has two rising super stars in Markel Walker and Jasmine Dixon, to go along with an experienced group of upper classmen in Darxia, Doreena, Erica, as starters, and a bench that goes 10 sometimes 11 deep.  It is exciting to think what the future holds for this team, as UCLA loses only 1 player who has played significant minutes in Erica Tukiainen, while returning Atonye Nyingifa from injury and everyone coming back a year stronger and more experienced.

Now to give out a few awards for UCLA and the Pac-10 this season, which of course only reflects my personal inexperienced opinion:

Best Pac-10 Game:  If you don't care about defense, and want to disprove the myth that womens basketball is boring and low scoring, Arizona defeated Oregon 119-114........WITHOUT ever going to overtime.  The game was full of offensive firepower and looked like an NBA score more than anything.

Best UCLA Game: There are two picks for this award.  In terms of most exciting to watch, UCLA's dismantling of USC at Pauley wins the award, as the building was packed with over 8000 people, the team came out on fire and blitzed USC right out of the game and was perfect payback for what had happened in the Galen center earlier.  However, the most meaningful victory of the season came 1 week earlier up in Berkley, as in probably the ugliest game of the year, UCLA won a critical road game that put UCLA firmly in 2nd place in the conference, whereas a loss would have dropped UCLA into a tie and a 2 game losing streak with USC up next.

From WBB vs OSU

Pac-10 Coach of the Year: This is not a homer pick, but it has to be Nikki Caldwell.  She has quickly turned around a UCLA program that was mired in mediocrity, and brought consistency and defense to a team lacking those things.  This team was not supposed to be a tournament team this year, and yet here we are and Nikki should receive recognition for that.

Pac-10 Freshman of the Year: Davellyn White of Arizona has been very impressive, especially in her last game in Pauley.  It is clear that she is one of the biggest talents who is consistently producing for her team, 5th best in conference and 1st of the freshman in points per game at 16.  She will be a very special player for Arizona for quite some time.

Pac-10 Player of the Year: Nnemkadi Ogwumike of Stanford, she's as difficult to stop as it is to pronounce her name.  Leading the conference with 18.2 points a game, and 3rd with 9.2 rebounds, she averages almost a double double, and has been the most consistent player for the best team in the conference and will probably earn POY honors.

UCLA Player of the Year: This one was pretty easy.  Ever since Jasmine Dixon has joined this team, UCLA has lost only 3 games, she has been our most consistent scoring threat, featuring a 31 point and 20 rebound performance on the road against Oregon.  Our leading scorer averaging 15.4 points per game, she doesn't have too many down games and has been a vital element in UCLA's success this year.

With those out of the way, I'll move on to the Pac-10 Tournament.  Here is how the brackets look.

B D and I took a look at the brackets and came up with our predictions for how we thought it would play out.

Play in game:

#8 Arizona vs #9 Washington State: Both B D and I believe that Arizona has more talent on their roster than Washington State, and really their only liability is their very thin bench, meaning they can't sustain any injuries or foul trouble.  Still, Thomas and Whyte are two up and coming very talented players and should be enough to lead to an Arizona victory.

#7 Washington vs #10 Oregon State:  This Oregon State team is bad. UW is already 2-0 against them, and Washington is coming into the tournament with a bit of momentum having swept the Oregon schools.  Both B D and myself expect Washington to be the winner of this game.

Quarterfinals:

#4 California vs #5 ASU: Here is where B D and i disagree.  ASU is 2-0 on the season against Cal, both teams are solid defensively.  Cal features the pac-10 leading scorer but a bunch of freshman on their roster.  B D feels that Cal performed better against the top 3 in the conference, by defeating USC and gives Cal the slight nod, while I think that this particular matchup is bad for Cal and that ASU will pull off the complete season sweep.

#1 Stanford vs #8 Arizona:  B D and i both know there is very likely no way Stanford loses this game, and really as long as they're focused, they should be able to win with ease.  Add to that the fact that Arizona has to play 2 nights in a row with a short bench, they might be tired and this game might be ugly.

#3 USC vs #6 Oregon:  This is quite possibly the most intriguing first round game.  The two teams have split on the season, and USC comes in on a 5 game winning streak while Oregon is on a 6 game losing streak.  It would be easy to give USC the nod being on their own home court, but Oregon has already beaten USC at the Galen center, and seems to be a matchup problem for the Trojans.  B D and i both believe USC will win this one in a close one, but I can't shake the feelings that Oregon might surprise them.

#2 UCLA vs #7 Washington:  UCLA is 2-0 on the season vs the Huskies, and really only their player Kingma presented any major difficulty for the Bruins last time we met.  Washington has performed well against the bottom half of the conference, but against UCLA, we feel that UCLA should win without too much of a problem.

Semi-Finals:

#1 Stanford vs #4 Cal/#5 ASU:  Since B D and i can't agree on the winner of the 4-5 game, we'll put them both here.  Stanford had no problems with either of these teams during the regular season, and both B D and I don't see why either of these teams would give Stanford much of a challenge.  What we're hoping for is that they keep it close enough that can't just rest their starters for the championship game.

#2 UCLA vs #3 USC:  Now here is a game that i have very mixed feelings about.  On the one hand, UCLA has never won at the Galen center against USC, and i certainly don't want to play a team on their own home court.  On the other hand, playing USC gives UCLA an opportunity to get a much needed extra win against a top 50 rpi team that could possibly be the difference in where UCLA is seeded.  B D feels that the keys to victory is limiting USC's foul shots and the play of Gemelos and Corral.  The free throws is really where USC killed last time at the Galen center, and they are a good free throw shooting team.  Still, UCLA is 8-1 in the back half of conference play while USC is 5-4, and though USC is on a 5 game winning streak, UCLA has really hit their stride and probably will want vengeance for their first loss in the Galen center, thus we pick a UCLA victory.

Finals:

#1 Stanford vs #2 UCLA.  Stanford has looked unbeatable in sweeping through the pac-10, but UCLA had given them a tough challenge in the first half of the game up at Maples, and almost pulled off the upset in the 2nd half in the game at Pauley, but if UCLA wants to have any chance in this game, UCLA needs to play 40 minutes of high intensity.  B D points to stopping Jayne Appel for Stanford, who had only 10 points in our close loss at Pauley but 23 in their big victory in Maples.  UCLA was able to get the stanford bigs into foul trouble in the Pauley game, but found themselves buried under a pile of free throws up in Maples.  Really UCLA needs to do their best to shut down the Stanford bigs (easier said than done) as their outside shooting isn't stunning.  Both B D and I feel that Stanford will win this game, but if UCLA can keep it competitive, it's still a good final picture for the selection committee to see.