2010-11 Basketball Predictions: "Rivals" Guys Give Up on UCLA
by DCBruins on Aug 7, 2010 8:18 AM PDT
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PrintEarlier this week, BN released its Power Poll on football. Later this week as Peggysue pointed out WSU and UCLA were the only PAC 10 teams to not even get a vote in the Coaches football poll. I thought it might be worth taking a quick look at the Basketball predictions.
Jon Wilner of the St. Jose Mercury News has written some good early season analysis but if Peggysue thought the national guys were down on UCLA for picking ASU higher than UCLA in football, it seems the nationwide basketball guys are even worse. In a story about the four great basketball powers on who will comeback next year, UCLA is universally rated least likely :
[1.] UCLA has lost a ton of players to transfers or in unexpected jumps to the NBA. In the long run, the transfers probably will benefit UCLA. But not immediately. UCLA is rebuilding around Malcolm Lee and Tyler Honeycutt. That might be enough to get the Bruins to the NIT, but I'm not entirely optimistic for the NCAA tournament.
[2.] As for UCLA, while the Pac-10 again will be down, it won't be down enough for the Bruins to make the NCAA field. I think UCLA will have a winning record but not good enough for the NCAA field.
[3.] UCLA could be in trouble for the second consecutive season.
[4.] UCLA fell so far last season that I'm guessing it might take a year or two for the Bruins to get back to where they're accustomed.
More after the jump.
Some of it is East Coast bias. Some of it is being completely clueless (The Pac 10 is down and we still don't have a chance?) One more national prediction, I will mention for comic relief. One of the guys from bleacher report picks one of the Bruins to leave early to go in the first round next year. And the prediction is (drum roll) with the 25th pick in the 2011 NBA draft the Phoenix Suns pick "Josh Smith."
I guess there is a reason why Bleacher Report is not too highly regarded. I understand and hope Smith really does bring it but come on, he has not even played a game yet and there are questions about his weight. (Also, have they heard of Tyler Honeycutt?)
Personally, I think Wilner had it closer to right earlier in the year when he wrote:
The Bruins are in very good shape at three spots (wing Malcolm Lee and forwards Tyler Honeycutt and Reeves Nelson) and perhaps four if freshman center Josh Smith makes a rapid adjustment to the college game - and drops a few pounds. Point guard is the issue. With solid play from Jerime Anderson or JC transfer Lazeric Jones, the Bruins could win the league.
Go Bruins.
This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of BruinsNation's (BN) editors. It does reflect the views of this particular fan though, which is as important as the views of BN's editors.
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After preparing my fanpost on football, I was depressed. After reading yours, I need counseling.
Seriously, I agree with you, Wilner’s assessment is premised in part on the natural progression we can expect from Nelson, Lee, Honeycutt et al. plus a touch of a JC transfer and we have our not so secret weapon—CBH.
That is to say, we will hopefully not have any Concordia moments. A Concordia moment is what I experienced about 8 minutes 32 seconds into the Concordia opener (preseason) last fall and I couldn’t understand why we couldn’t put these guys away, why our guards couldn’t get the ball down the court, why we couldn’t play defense, and why our free throws didn’t go “swish” but all you would hear was a “clank” followed by a Concordia rebound. That is a Concordia moment.
The horror of it all.
by peggysue69 on Aug 7, 2010 7:10 AM PDT via mobile reply actions
Oh it's not that bad
It is better to be underrated than overrated. Besides the guy who actually watches the PAC 10 for a living, Wilner, picked us 3rd and then 2nd. (Unlike football, there is a true favorite in basketball. UW looks like it should win the PAC 10.)
I guess what I am trying to say is I feel better about Wilner picking us than I would if Wilner was predicting bad things and the rival guys good things.
Basketball is a game where one good player can make a big difference.
Josh Smith could be that guy. TH and RN will be a year stronger and better. If Zeke Jones can be a good, not necessarily great point guard, I think we can contend. If ML continutes to be adequate, and JA improves from terrible, we can be very good. I am very optimistic about the upcoming year.
Don't be silly
Tyler Honeycutt, Reeves Nelson, Malcolm Lee, and Jason Alexander (who isn’t a Bruin point guard but directs plays all the time on UCLA’s biggest stage…)
by yarrrp on Aug 7, 2010 11:12 AM PDT via mobile up reply actions
I don’t understand the meme that abbreviating a player’s name to their first and last initials is some sort of honor…
by Orz on Aug 7, 2010 4:57 PM PDT up reply actions
Good Point but I am not
not sure Josh Smith is the guy. I think TH could be the guy and to some extent (assuming we have a decent PG) the season may depend on how good he is. TH needs to take more shots and lead on the offense end more.
Further, I think British Bruin made the point that it can take bigs longer to develop (I know KL was ready but generally.) I think we should not expect too much from a Freshman Center. If nothing else remember this is the first time he will be playing in a league where he is not the biggest guy.
I too am optimistic about the team but I think we are in trouble if we need Josh Smith to be our leader.
Tyler was injured last yeat
In making our pre-pre-pre-commencement predictions (guesses),
by peggysue69 on Aug 7, 2010 3:39 PM PDT via mobile up reply actions
Tyler was injured at the start of last year
In making our pre-pre-pre-commencement of practice predictions (guesses), we all need to remember Tyler began the season last year with a broken back. So all these experts on the East Coast understate what we can expect if he is healthy.
by peggysue69 on Aug 7, 2010 3:46 PM PDT via mobile up reply actions
Yep and in response to your earlier comment
on the Concordia game. That game did show arguably our biggest problem PG as you wrote: “why our guards couldn’t get the ball down the court,” Everything this year hinges on getting at least decent play out of our PGs.
Tyler and his injury...
Keep in mind TH was NOT even able to workout with weights, last season. With more strength, and improved skills, he could definitely be the man.
If one of our other wing players plans out, and none of our PGs provide adequite play, I would not be against just putting the ball in TH’s hands. He’s shown the bball IQ, versatility, and ability to get the ball to other players in the right spots to be a point forward.
does matt carlino count as a point guard for us?
I think our SG position is filled with some solid (?) players as is, meanwhile yet to have any faith in anyone at PG
I think the biggest improvement it that a certain player can't play...
The one who shall not be named is gone…and with that alone we are so much better.
Go Bruins!
We will be better at at least 4 positions next year
and be even, or even improving, at the fifth if ML is dedicated and plays up to potential at the 2. Panic not.
by britishbruin on Aug 7, 2010 9:09 PM PDT via mobile reply actions
ML is at a minimum
a better defender than Michael Roll. So we will lose something at that spot on the offensive side of the ball but no one should forget our best defender last year was Malcolm Lee and one of the reasons we had to play zone was MIchael Roll’s lack of speed and inability to play M2M well.
true
though I suppose we should also note that we might not be better defensively at the PG position swapping Zeke/JA in for ML. Maybe combine the 2 guard positions for comparison purposes, assume ML will be better this year than last, that our new starting guard is at least the defender that MR is, and that having improved PG direction/competition/depth should help offset the loss of MR’s outside shot.
by britishbruin on Aug 8, 2010 10:29 AM PDT up reply actions
Ugh your point brings fear to my heart
IMO, JA was the worse defender bar none on the team last year. (He who should not be named had 3 out 30 games where he did okay which were 3 more than JA had.) If we were to trade JA for MR on defense, we lose on Defense. Of course, JA could greatly improve on defense and in JA’s defense he is working harder this year.
However, if we trade MR for Zeke and Zeke is even an average defender than we improve a lot. Why, well ML can cover the best player 1-3 on the other team, leaving Zeke to cover the PG OR the shooting guard whichever is the lesser. ML proved against Wise and Randall that he could play M2M D on a the best PAC 10 PGs, so I think you are right when you say they should be taken together.
I know this may sound like hyperbole and me with my homer hat on, but I really think ML is all defense first team material.
ML has the tools to be a great defender
I like the idea of him and Zeke harrassing people BenBall style.
by britishbruin on Aug 8, 2010 12:27 PM PDT up reply actions
offense vs. defense
As long as we get back to BenBall and great defense, poor (shooting percentage) offense can still produce wins, as the first 2 Final Four (of 3) runs proved. In contrast, as last season backed up, inconsistent defense plus inconsistent offense equals a lot of losses.
I can only hope that ML has worked big time on his jump shot, and ability to drive to the basket. Hopefully he can get back to being more confident with his 3-point shot, too.
If Zeke can not defend better than MR or JA, he better be able to score at will, run our offense like a great conductor, or hit the road. You have to think CBH brought him into our program for good reason.
LOL
I’m laughing because this article is actually quite old, having been posted on Rivals/Yahoo a while ago.
At first, I was upset about this article. While I agree with Wilner’s view on our team, I can also understand the Rivals’ crew take on this. Keep in mind this is in regards to three other highly regarded teams. UNC is not exactly in the toughest conference (despite the media being enamored with them). UConn I question – however, the Big East has done very well in getting many of their teams in the big dance. With Arizona, I would say the selection committee loves/d them with their record number of consecutive selections, and we’re at a potential disadvantage having DG running the show. We have no seniors, and you know how people love senior leadership.
With all that said, I hope we take a big step forward, and make a “surprising” deep run in the big dance.
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