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Deja Vu? Oregon 2009 and KSU 2010

Since I am the guy taking heat for being Pollyanna in the post game thread, let me be clear I am not happy with our game Saturday but I am not suicidal.  While there are a lot of areas to cast blame (and some positive areas), there was one overriding big mistake that I think cost of the game: starting Kevin Prince after he missed so much time. 

And while, we don't have much data on this season.  We should have known this would happen because the same thing happen the last time Prince was rushed back to start.  Flash back to the Oregon game last year.  I am going to be a bit lazy here and mix Nestor's post and the OC Register he cited ( go to the link if you want to see which is which, but the emphasis throughout this is all mine). 

Prince, who was cleared to play Wednesday from the broken jaw that has kept him out the past two games, took the first-team repetitions for the third day in a row. The redshirt freshman said earlier in the week he felt his timing still needed work.

"I thought he was good today," Neuheisel said. "I thought he was better."

That's good to know. Meanwhile, the reporters have been really digging into Prince's eating out schedules all week. Yesterday we found out via Jon Gold that apparently he had steak at Lawry's after he was given the go ahead to eat solid food. Now Ted Miller reports breathlessly that Prince "was able to hit a local Persian restaurant for a couple of beef kabobs," in "between the doctor's appointment and a team meeting."

Let me add an LA Times story on Prince's practice before Oregon last year. 

Prince struggled through practice, missing on more than a handful of throws.

The result, the worst game (yes, worse than Saturday) of Prince's career:

His jaw was wired shut and he sat out the Kansas St. and Stanford games ... Returned to start against Oregon and completed 13 of 25 passes for 81 yards and one interception which was returned for a score

Now after the jump the KSU game this year:

Star-divide

In the meantime Prince finished his third straight day of practice without feeling any kind of serious lingering effects (according to Prince himself and CRN).

Three days good practice, the same as the Oregon game.  Let's look at some of the other comments and see how they compare.  First: 

According to reports Prince "practiced at full speed for the second consecutive day" yesterday. For the "first time" since camp started he threw long passes on consecutive days.

 

Then:

He did deliver a number of touch passes, including a nice deep ball to junior transfer Josh Smith, but Prince was off on others.

"I'm still not there with my accuracy, so that's definitely a point of emphasis with me to work out the next few days," Prince said.

I realize the injuries are different BUT the effect was the same.  A long break between practice and  same three good practice days.  Same accuracy problem.  Guess what: same drops, same missed passes, same bad game. 

CRN and staff blew it.  There is no way Prince should have started this game.  One part of a comment from the game thread

The implosion...the interception...Kevin Prince looking simply lost...the buzz when Brethaut suddenly is standing on the field and looking pretty good...the missed tackles on defense...the dropped balls by the receivers.

This comment except for Brehaut could have been form this Saturday instead of last year against Oregon  It is CRN and the coaching staff's duty to prevent Deja Vu.

Let me add an important caveat.  I am not saying Brehaut should start this week or that Prince is a bad QB.  I also don't think our WRs suddenly became guys who couldn't catch a cold.   I am saying that if Prince misses practice after an injury, he should not be rushed back.  For if he is, we know what is going to happen for certain, as it has already happen twice.

This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of BruinsNation's (BN) editors. It does reflect the views of this particular fan though, which is as important as the views of BN's editors.

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I agree completely

and it almost makes me wonder whether the coaches weren’t as concerned with winning this game, but more with getting KP back in the routine ASAP for the beginning of Pac-10 play.

by Jyaan on Sep 5, 2010 11:20 PM PDT reply actions  

Yeah, they could have played this as a preseason game

For Prince to get him ready for the more important Stanford game. Don’t like that and think they should have adjusted the playbook (coming out with all the passes) but it does make some sense.

by DCBruins on Sep 6, 2010 4:35 AM PDT via mobile up reply actions  

+1

And I completely agree with the original point. My main question of the fanpost is where were these commments when there was all of the pro-Prince talk (even after knowing Prince was hurt)?

So why did the coaching staff even rush Prince back to practice if he was not 100%? He should have been getting as much rest as possible. I can understand Prince not wanting to miss practice, and possibly losing his starting job – however, the coaching staff should have been more patient with him.

While our receivers could have done a better job making some of the catches (and yes, they didn’t have the best hands last year, either), Prince was just dreadful for most of the game, outside of the 2 plays for the two-minute offense. He overthrew, underthrew, and misplaced the football on his throws.

Does anyone know how much Brehaut practiced with the 1st team? It seems strange that they would not let him play, considering Prince’s performance. I guess they want to instill confidence in Prince. However, if his injury (or new/future ones) are nagging, they could be flushing this season down the toilet.

by SakeBomb on Sep 6, 2010 3:09 AM PDT up reply actions  

gotta be tough for Brehaut

when a clearly-not-100% Prince is deemed such a better option.

by britishbruin on Sep 6, 2010 8:22 AM PDT up reply actions  

The problem is

if you don’t play Prince because he is rusty, he just gets rustier…

by captainqtp on Sep 6, 2010 12:15 AM PDT reply actions  

Unless it's not a problem...

if Brehaut had gotten the practice and game time, and played well.

It’s also possible that it was not about just being rusty, but being uncomfortable due to his injuries.

by SakeBomb on Sep 6, 2010 3:14 AM PDT up reply actions  

No

Unless you are Farve, you need Reps to work on timing for the sake of the team as well as yourself. Remember Prince missed many practices not just game week. I think Prince is likely the better QB but playing him without reps is bad. A week on the second team to get out rust then first team against Stanford would have been better.

by DCBruins on Sep 6, 2010 4:55 AM PDT via mobile up reply actions  

not to mention

that our cutesy “both will play, we just don’t know how much” malarkey could have been saved for the game we care more about.

by britishbruin on Sep 6, 2010 8:20 AM PDT up reply actions  

it is a timing issue

The WRs are not that bad but every QB is different. WR and QBs need to work togehter or they both look bad. Further, Prince was not himself at first, so WRs don’t know where the ball is going.

He should have been second unit against KSU and first against Stanford.

by DCBruins on Sep 6, 2010 4:22 AM PDT via mobile reply actions  

Nagging Concern About Wasting Brehaut

I think we started Prince because we were treating it as a pre-season game and trying to work him back to starting form AND because there may still be some thought about red-shirting Brehaut.

I wonder if a formal decision to save a year for Brehaut has been made — subject only to a serious injury to Prince or a complete melt down in his play.

What I don’t want to see is what we’ve seen with other players, like Brehaut last year and Dean the year before — used for a little bit but not enough to justify burning a season.

We’ve heard that Crissman has improved. Enough to back up Prince and let Brehaut save a year?

Would we have won if Brehaut played? Not unless he played D and made tackles. The D was as much the cause of the loss as the O, and Prince should not take a disproportionate share of the blame. This was a team loss.

sjh

by Class of 66 on Sep 6, 2010 5:47 AM PDT reply actions  

I don't know.

Brehaut and the receivers looked so sharp in practice, that I do believe they would have put up a great deal more points…including td’s instead of field goals and they would have had longer time of possession, giving ksu less scoring opportunities. I agree, the defense was a big problem, but it can be overcome with good offense…see u$c-Hawaii.

Go Bruins!

by uclaluv on Sep 6, 2010 7:00 AM PDT up reply actions  

Playing Brehaut would likely improved D

Our Defense, except for the first drive (even then they had a great goal line stand) played well until the latter part of the game when the front seven looked tired. We were also arm tackling too much, sign of a tired D. I think that if we had better time of possession (thus more rest for the D), the D would have been better at the end.

If Brehaut could have helped us avoid 3 and outs and helped with the Time of Possession, the D would have likely been better.

Also, I think we will again need a backup QB for more than mop up duty given our recent history. I am not concerned about Brehaut red shirt season.

The only reason to play Prince IMO is to treat KSU as a preseason game to get ready for Stanford. I don’t like that but it is understandable.

by DCBruins on Sep 6, 2010 7:26 AM PDT up reply actions  

in what was essentially a 2-point game

then one decent pass could have been the difference.

Of course, you can argue at the same time that one more tackle behind the line of scrimmage could have been the difference too – but Prince’s shortcomings were more obviously on display as an individual than any single defensive player.

Also agree with DC – a couple of sustained drives would have really helped the defence.

by britishbruin on Sep 6, 2010 8:11 AM PDT up reply actions  

My only concern

I am worried that Stanford is a better team than KSU. I thought our defense did well, but I garee with DCBruins that unless our offense has reasonable possession time, the defense will tire out towards the end. The coaches need to keep the Brehaut option open if Prince continues to make errors against Stanford as well.

by uclablue on Sep 6, 2010 7:35 AM PDT reply actions  

it is not my only concern

but I think it is a very valid concern!

by britishbruin on Sep 6, 2010 8:19 AM PDT up reply actions  

With All Due Respect -- Blaming the O for the D Is a Fallacy ...

that has gone on for several years. I’ve written a lot about it and don’t want to do it again.

To a great extent, the D controls its own destiny. All it needs to do is make 3 plays and force a punt. No matter how weak the O, the D can get itself off the field if it tackles and stops people. It has not in the past and didn’t, Saturday.

I’ve studied the drive charts for years. Saturday’s game reflects my belief that often, our D is its own worst enemy.

The first time our D was on the field — it gave up a 10 play drive that resulted in a touchdown. Can’t blame the O for that one. Fully rested D — long drive. That was a 5:27 drive. All on the D.

At the start of the second half, a “rested D”, starting with good defensive field possession, gives up an 80 yard drive culminating in a touchdown.

We get the ball and have a 14 play drive that ends in a field goal; it took 10 minutes off the clock; 10 minutes where the D was sitting on the bench. The D takes the field and KSU has a 5:35 drive for 20 plays and 52 yards ending in a field goal. 10 minutes not enough rest. My position, it had nothing to do with rest.

Is it a matter of conditioning? If so, blame the coaches.

And, blame CRN and CNC for running our 2 minute offense too often — because our poor D needs its rest.

I don’t think you can blame the O for the D’s failures. If they were “too tired” blame the conditioning staff for not getting them ready. But, can’t do that because it seems our conditioning program was stellar this summer.

Why not blame the D for its own faults. It could not tackle. it got pushed around. And, it committed two very stupid key penalties that really hurt us.

Our O was not great. But, it was not the cause of the D’s failures.

This was a team loss.

sjh

by Class of 66 on Sep 6, 2010 7:57 AM PDT reply actions  

I'm not blaming the O for the D's failure.

But more scoring on our part … we win.
Less time on the field for their O…we win.
The D still needs to fix things. My point is that you can overcome bad D sometimes with a lot of scoring and I think we would have been capable of doing that with RB last Saturday. Primarily because he was ready and Prince was not.

Go Bruins!

by uclaluv on Sep 6, 2010 8:16 AM PDT up reply actions  

you don't need to "blame the O for the D's failures"

to think that

IF the O had sustained drives

THEN the D would have had to defend fewer plays and make fewer tackles and likely not get so obviously worn down and

THEREFORE a small improvement in production from the offense could have led to a small improvement in performance from the defense.

Yes it was a team loss. But in some ways to make everybody accountable is make nobody accountable. And even in a ‘team loss’, it might be true that if one player (say, the QB) had played better we might have won the game, and that if we had a healthy, practiced replacement for a particular player on the bench and didn’t use him (say, Brehaut), then the decision not to use that player from the start or during the game might be the difference between winning and losing the game.

by britishbruin on Sep 6, 2010 8:17 AM PDT up reply actions  

This should have been nested under DC's post

in which he mentions
" I think that if we had better time of possession (thus more rest for the D), the D would have been better at the end."

This has been the argument I’ve challenged, every year.

I’m not disagreeing that we should have scored more points. But, I just don’t buy the argument that the poor D played poorly because the O didn’t keep it off the field.

The D played poorly because it played poorly.

sjh

by Class of 66 on Sep 6, 2010 8:50 AM PDT up reply actions  

I respect your opinion

66. And I am stating one part of the case. More points and better morale also help a defense. It is overstating to say just time of possession makes a difference but as BB and others said above, better O does help the D, at least indirectly.

by DCBruins on Sep 6, 2010 8:57 AM PDT up reply actions  

actually

I think “time of possession” isn’t necessarily the important thing (though it serves as a good proxy) – after all, we could go 3-and-out with 3 incompletions and take 10 seconds off the clock or 3-and-out with 3 stuffed run plays and take 90 seconds off the clock, but it wouldn’t make any difference to our defense in terms of rest time.

Playing against a running team like KSU, it is not only the TOP but also the sheer number of plays – if they drive the ball 80 yards in increments of 3 or 4 yards per play on average, and every play is stopped by people having to make tackles, that’s 20+ muscular plays to be made on defense. If you are playing against Hawaii, your secondary and linebackers are scrambling around, but your DL isn’t being attacked by blockers in the same way and a lot of plays will end with people being pushed out of bounds or incomplete passes, and a few big plays might be what takes them down the field; maybe your front 7 only makes 3 or 4 tackles on a Hawaii 80 yard drive.

The TOP does proxy for that difference – but I think it gets too simplified when people say that it’s about giving your D ‘rest’. There is both the immediate effect of having to go back on the field having only come off 4 plays previously; and also the cumulative effect of having to go back on the field having already had to deal with this run game 53 times already.

To illustrate the point further – people often say that you need to have a running game to take time off the clock and give your D the chance to rest. But you could just as well have a short passing game. The ‘immediate’ rest is measured in real time, not game time. What you need for immediate rest is for your team to keep moving the chains, regardless of whether that is running or passing. HOWEVER, taking gametime off the clock is important because it reduces the number of plays your opponents can run, and so reduces the ‘cumulative’ effect.

I would also add that the comments about starting the game and the 2nd half with giving up points certainly do show that fully rested defense doesn’t necessarily make stops – but that is also the time when the offensive coaches on the other side have had most time to script plays and scheme to take advantage of the defense. I don’t have any way of proving this, but my opinion is that the coaching/half-time adjustments are more advantageous to the offense than the defense, unless you have an ultra-aggressive defense that is constantly trying to dictate to the offense and make the offense make adjustments to novel blitzes, gimmicks and looks. One thing about Walker’s defenses is that while they weren’t always successful, and decent offenses could sometimes take what he was giving them, there did seem to be an element of the defense dictating to the offense rather than the other way round.

Regardless of the immediate/cumulative distinction, it seems indisputable that when we needed stops at the end of the game, our defensive players looked exhausted. If they had faced fewer plays, they would not have been (and – as is only fair to say in this team game – if they had worked even harder in the off-season then they might have had more in the tank).

by britishbruin on Sep 6, 2010 10:14 AM PDT up reply actions  

I think a couple of relevant questions re: Prince vs. Brehaut

First has to do with the pistol offense and how married to it the coaches want to be. If the coaches are placing a high priority in establishing this set as a predominant form of our offense, then the next question is…

how do Prince and Brehaut’s skill sets fit the pistol offense? From what I know about their skill sets, Prince seems a much better fit for the pistol, while Brehaut seems a better fit for the pro set. Now I saw neither in our scrimmages, so if I am off base on this assertion, feel free to correct me.

Another interesting observation: of our 63 plays, 37 were running plays, and 26 were passing. I am comfortable with this ratio when taking into consideration that our QB was rusty, but upon further review, I note that 12 of these running plays were by Kevin Prince. So, in effect, we were relying on either Prince’s arm or legs on 38 out of our 63 plays (60%). So, not only did we start a rusty QB, but we made him a focal point in our attack. Curious.

"I don't forget very much" Rick Neuheisel, 11/28/09

by Blue Me on Sep 6, 2010 9:31 AM PDT reply actions  

I'm beginning to think that the more relevant comparison is

between their O and our D — which are both on the field for the exact same number of plays. So wouldn’t the fatigue factor play an almost equal role in that match up?

Can’t one argue that at the end of the game, the stronger unit won? That their O simply wore down our D.

However, I really don’t think one need go there. We were arm tackling from the first part of the game. Blowing assignments and making stupid mistakes.

I totally agree that better morale helps.

However, in this case I think the D did little to lift the O’s morale, either.

We were leading at half and the D gives up a touchdown on the first series of the 3rd Quarter making us come from behind.

We come back and score, and the D gives up another score.

We kick a field goal to bring it to 16-17.

Locke forces KSU to start on our 20. KSU runs for 27 yards on the next play. And, 18 after that. And, 8 after that. Ultimately, KSU scores a touchdown so we are behind 16-24.

We score a TD, miss the conversion so it is 22-24.

We start managing the clock. We have Kai. Just need the ball back and some decent field postion.

In 3 runs, the D lets Daniel Thomas close out the game — covering the 44 yards to a touchdown.

Morale? Locke does his job, over and over, gives the D great starting field position only to see the D give up the advantage.

A less than stellar O is keeping us in the game only to see the D give ground after each of our scores.

Most of the critical analysis of this game has been analysis of our O.

The D deserves similar scrutiny.

Looking hard at both sides it is clear this was a team loss.

sjh

by Class of 66 on Sep 6, 2010 9:41 AM PDT reply actions  

sorry didn't see this before I posted the above

but it seems quite clear that O and D do not get tired in the same way. Particularly on the lines, you tend to have smaller DLinemen wrestling (sometimes in double teams) with bigger OLinemen and trying to stand their ground, and having to react to where the Offensive Line is deciding to go. This is doubly true in the run game. In the passing game, the OL is often concerned about where guys are coming from to pressure the QB and having to move their big bodies to counter pressure from quicker guys, but in the run game it is more about deciding where they want to go and then going there and punishing the DL – or hitting the linebackers, or whoever they can get their hands on.

I tend to agree with your main point, to the degree that you are saying “we have overemphasized the deficiencies of our O over the past 2 years and 1 game and gone too easy on the defense”, as I think we have often been in positions where 1 big defensive stop could turn the game and we couldn’t get it. (at the same time, we have often seen our defense make heroic play after heroic play without our offense being able to capitalise)

But this line of argument that the performance of the O and D are not interrelated, and that we can’t look and point out that a slightly less mediocre performance from Prince and (particularly) the WRs could have helped us on both sides of the ball, just seems incredibly surprising coming from a poster whose opinions I typically find to be among the most sensible and reasonable of anyone who posts here.

by britishbruin on Sep 6, 2010 10:27 AM PDT up reply actions  

I thought about the difference in tasks between D and O lines

but I recall games in our recent past where, toward the end of games, our D line started dominating their O lines.

I still think it goes both ways. Playing all game against Brian Price and his ilk can take its toll.

The O starts with knowing where it is going. The D usually has size to its advantage.

Not sure if it’s a push or not.

sjh

by Class of 66 on Sep 6, 2010 11:20 AM PDT up reply actions  

the D does NOT normally have size to its advantage.

the D normally has speed to its advantage, but for size it’s definitely O-line > D-line

Just to look at our own squad for the K-State game as previously linked by Nestor here (a pdf file) – In our 2-deep on the O-line we have only one guy listed at less than 300 pounds, and he is at 298. On the D-line, we have only one guy more than 300 pounds and a couple are under 250.

by britishbruin on Sep 6, 2010 11:27 AM PDT up reply actions  

Yes and No, KSU Offense vs. our Defense

There are a lot of factors that cause a close loss (and despite the final margin, I still call this a close loss.) But on KSU offense, we destroy them if we can get them in a pass first or must pass situation. As the Kansas blogger said in the game thread, he would take Prince over their QB.

We only briefly led and they were never in a must pass situation.

You are right, the D does deserve scrutiny but what I was arguing is there was a way to win this game, start Brehart. I can’t point to one defensive change or another offense change that would make it so definitive and should have been seen by the coaches. (Although the coaching error 12 on the field for the goal line play would rank pretty high on the game change scale). It was not fair to Prince or the rest of the team for him to start.

by DCBruins on Sep 6, 2010 10:57 AM PDT reply actions  

So there you go

That famous “or” listing is back for Week 2 in the official depth chart

Formerly ucla13_usc9

by 03rdn9 on Sep 6, 2010 4:44 PM PDT reply actions  

I am not sure they updated it from week 1

At least I hope so. If Prince is healthy, he should get the start.

by DCBruins on Sep 6, 2010 5:21 PM PDT up reply actions  

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