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Opening Our Files: Early Notes On Amazing Jim Harbaugh’s Incredible Stanford Program

Time to put the Kansas State game in our rear view mirror and look ahead to Stanford. bk bruin has already started the process by asking for everyone's help in putting together the "Dirt." Suggest everyone to chime in with tidbits on every aspect of Stanford's football program. These are the kind of threads where we get a sense who is a member of this community as opposed to the trolls who only show up here to b!tich, whine and complain after tough losses.

As for the game, the timing of this matchup in unique. Since starting playing in the "Pac-10" in 1978, UCLA has played only 4 other conference games this early in the season.  We won at Stanford on Sept. 1, 2007 (45-17); lost at Washington State on August 30, 1997 (34-37); lost v. Cal on Sept. 4, 1993 (25-27) and won at Washington on Sept. 9, 1978 (10-7). The last time we opened our home schedule with a Pac-10 game was against Cal. That year got off to a rocky start with UCLA losing 2 out of its first 3 games before we went on to win the conference and go to the Rose Bowl (Read full game notes from the official site here). Can't imagine the kind of hysteria and nonsensical comments we would see from people if the internets were around those days.

Anyway, so thinking about mighty Stanford. If you read the traditional media you will get the sense that Jim Harbaugh is something like the second coming of Vince Lombardi.  If you have been following the hype through recent months, you will know that Sir Harbaugh is one of the greatest coach evah to bless us with his presence in the Pac-10, even though his record after three years in Stanford stands 2 game below 100, and his record after his first 2 years in the farm (9-15) was a little worse than CRN's first 2 years in Westwood (11-14). Even in Stanford's breakthrough season last year Harbaugh finished the season with a record of 8-5 with a once in a generation talent like Toby Gerhart at his disposal. One of those 8 victories included a 24-16 win over UCLA playing with its backup QB Kevin Craft.

So with that in the backdrop it is amusing to see Stanford coming into this game as a 7.5 favorites over UCLA at the Rose Bowl. Guess people think Bruins don't belong in the same field as the Cardinal, even though Jim Harbaugh with one year head start on recruiting front has won a grand total of 3 extra games than Neuheisel in Westwood.

Whatever. This doesn't mean that UCLA should show even a hint of disrespect to the Cardinal. Harbaugh, notwithstanding the usual over the top tradmed hype is a solid coach, who will have his team prepared and well grounded in fundamentals. What it does mean though UCLA should look at this game as a golden opportunity to stem the onslaught of Stanford hype machine (which apparently still cannot fill up their little stadium). I also hope our coaches and players are upset and frustrated at the cynicism that not surprisingly poured out following this past weekend's loss (not just from tradmed but also from casual fans looking to jump on bandwagon) and rally with a focused and improved performance this Saturday.

Star-divide

The observers up in the Bay Area are expecting a Stanford win:

The beauty of playing Sac State is that Stanford won handily without showing much of its playbook. The problem with opening against a FCS foe is that you don't get tested.

UCLA's in the opposite position: The Bruins had to show more of their offense against Kansas State, but they got a much better sense for their flaws.

And there were flaws. The defense got carved up by K State tailback Daniel Thomas, which bodes well for Stanford's running game, and QB Kevin Prince looked like someone who was hurt for most of training camp.

I'd expect the Bruins to be better in both phases this week, but will they be good enough to fend off the Cardinal? Sure feels like we'll see Stanford's first victory in the Rose Bowl since 1996.

Nice to know they are feeling so good about things. As for the Stanford team, unless you have been living in a cave, you should probably know by now the key question around this year's team will be how they are going to compensate for the loss of Toby Gerhart. Good news from them besides having an elite QB in Andrew Luck, they are getting back their key receivers (from Presnap Read's Stanford preview):

Stanford returns both of Luck's favorite targets from a year ago: senior Ryan Whalen led the team in receptions (57), receiving yards (926) and touchdowns (4) last fall; while junior Chris Owusu added 37 receptions for 682 yards - a team-best 18.4 yards per catch. Establishing depth at wide receiver will be key: senior Doug Baldwin is the most experienced hand among the second team, though his numbers took a steep slide in 2009. The Cardinal will look to several unproven receivers, such as Jamal-Rashad Patterson, Drew Terrell and Griff Whalen, in an effort to increase the number of options in the passing game. Depth is not a concern at tight end, even with Jim Dray's departure. Coby Fleener is the best receiving option of the bunch, but Stanford can also turn to former Notre Dame transfer Konrad Reuland, Zach Ertz and Levin Toilolo.

And a pretty set OL:

Four starters return up front, with the lone loss that of right tackle Chris Marinelli. To be fair, he's a big loss: Marinelli earned first-team all-conference and second-team all-American honors as a senior. Stanford has two experienced linemen to choose from in an effort to replace Marinelli. Sixth-year senior James McGillicuddy currently stands atop the depth chart, but the Cardinal could also turn to fifth-year senior Derek Hall. The rest of the line will feature tackle Jonathan Martin and guard Andrew Phillips on the weak side; David DeCastro at right guard; and Chase Beeler at center. Beeler, a senior, is the most accomplished returning starter. Just how good is this group? In addition to pacing the best rushing attack in program history last fall, it allowed only seven sacks on the year - the second-lowest total in the country. There's absolutely no reason to believe the line cannot repeat last season's success again in 2010.

They will do the good ole' RB by committee at least for the short term:

Were you expecting something else? Gerhart might be the most irreplaceable player in college football, what with his 1,871-yard, 27-touchdown senior campaign. That output, of course, come on the heels of a 1,136-yard, 15-score 2008 season. Who could Stanford possibly turn to in 2010 to replace the Heisman runner-up? Not one player, that's for sure. Not even two players, in fact. Stanford will go with a three-man - at least - by-committee approach, with three returning backs headlining this intense competition. One is senior Jeremy Stewart, who rushed for 107 yards and a touchdown last fall on 6.3 yards per carry. The key for Stewart is remaining healthy: he's missed significant portions of each of the last two seasons; for his career - while on the field - he's a productive option. He's battling a pair of sophomores, Stepfan Taylor and Tyler Gaffney. Taylor rushed for 303 yards and 2 touchdowns last fall, with the former total good for third on the team - second among Stanford's returning players. Gaffney earned less time, landing only 22 carries last fall, but his potential has the Stanford coaching staff excited. Keep an eye on three redshirt and true freshmen: Usua Amanam - the redshirt - Ricky Seale and Anthony Wilkerson. The opportunity is there, of course, for at least one of these unproven youngsters to earn significant time. Will one back duplicate Gerhart's 1,800-yard output? Absolutely not. Can this running back corps put forth enough production for Stanford to match last season's 2,837-yard rushing total as a team? Maybe, though it will be difficult. The hope is that Luck can do more with his arm, offsetting some of the lost yardage. Yet make no mistake: Stanford is not going to struggle to move the ball on the ground. It might just do so at a slightly diminished clip in 2010.

They key question here is going to be around Chuck Bullough? How will Bullough scheme against Harbaugh's offense? Last year Bullough got bulldozed by the Cardinal when Harbaugh basically called him out for his vanilla and base defense approach. By the time Bullough made his adjustments in the second half, Stanford had effectively grabbed momentum of that game and was running downhill. Ryan pointed out his post game analysis how under Bullough our defense has been repeatedly been ripped apart in initial drives. We are going to have the same issues again if Bullough doesn't put in wrinkles in our defensive schemes and come out with an attacking mindset.

On paper there hasn't been any major changes in our defensive depth chart for the Stanford game. However, we sure hope we are going to see noticeable shakeup in the rotation of our defense. Peter Yoon from ESPNLA indicated that CRN expects to go "deeper into defensive rotation" this weekend:

"In that kind of environment (on the road in Manhattan), playing the first game, especially in as a close a game as it turned out to be, it's hard to put guys in for their first snap," he said. "But we've got to find ways to spell guys so they can play 100 miles an hour."

To that end, Neuheisel said some of the younger players would go head-to-head in a 10 or 15-play scrimmage Tuesday in order to see who is ready to play.

Iuta Tepa, Cassius Marsh, Seali'i Epenesa, Keenan Graham, Donovan Carter and Owamagbe Odighizuwa are among the freshman and sophomore defensive linemen who played sparingly or not at all against Kansas State. Freshman linebacker Jordan Zumwalt also did not play.

Guess we will see. The guy that I really want to see in there is Dietrich Riley, who according to CRN was on the edge of getting in v. KSU. Given the glowing reports we had heard about Riley during pre-season camp, I wonder if the coaches would consider inserting Riley as a SS and the moving Tony Dye at CB replacing Sheldon Price (who had a decent game but got overpowered at times during KSU runs). Well, I doubt someone like Bullough will be so bold to make a move like this. However, I certainly hope the coaches are exploring all options to get their most athletic and physical combination out there on defense to match the expected physical intensity from a Harbaugh coached offense.

In terms of offense, it is going to be interesting to see how Kevin Prince and co. handle a defense which was proven to be fairly porous last season.  The Cardinal ranked 110th nationally against the pass last year, giving up 264.7 yards per game.  This year their secondary from my understanding is going to get little less experienced as they will have to do without three-year starter Bo McNally, who was one of the leaders of that defense.  They do get experienced starters back in seniors Richard Sherman (at CB) and junior Delano Howell (at SS) but as mentioned above as a unit these guys didn't light the world on fire. So it will be interesting to see how they perform. We certainly hope that Kevin Prince and his receivers are going to be a collective step forward against this unit on Saturday.

According to Jon Wilner Stanford's defensive strength is at the LB/DL spot. Well at least that is what Harbaugh is hoping:

If all goes according to Harbaugh's plan, the linebackers will form the heart of the defense. Keiser and Chase Thomas have been moved from end to outside linebacker while fullback Owen Marecic is the starter at one of the inside positions. They will join Shayne Skov, one of the top young defensive players in the conference.

Stanford is also in solid shape along the defensive line with veterans Sione Fua, Matt Masifilo and Brian Bulcke, who returns after missing most of the 2009 season with a broken thumb.

I think the matchup between Stanford DL and UCLA's OL could be pretty even. I will try to dig into it a bit more later this week. Given what we saw against KSU, I am optimistic and excited to see what we can do against the Cardinal in our revolver formation. I also hope we go with the revolver formation as our base offense from here on out because I was very encouraged to see how our OL and RBs were operating within that scheme. I think KSU's defense might have been a little more physical and faster than Stanford's DL. So there is a chance we could see a very productive day from our offense on Saturday.

Then again if you just go by the papers Bruins don't really have much of a shot this Saturday. Chris Foster's first lines in the LA Times today starts with classic concern trolling over how UCLA is going to be "dangled over the fire" against "highly regarded Stanford." Oooooooh we are all so scared Chris. Sounds like you wish we canceled our season and disbanded our football program today.

GO BRUINS.

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Confidence Builder

This win could be a big confidence builder. We need to establish some sort of dominance at home. I think this will be a real test, but we should be able to pull it out. I think it is critical to get something positive going into the next two non-conference games.

Louisville, KY for UCLA class of '87

by kingslook on Sep 7, 2010 5:51 AM PDT reply actions  

Spread

I’ll take the 7.5 pts.! Bruins will wake up and win this game straight up! Coaches know what adjustments to make. I also agree with Dye playing some CB. Price still is getting manhandled on the runs. Its a huge responsibility for a corner to stop the run. Both big runs to begin the second half for KSU, Price was blocked completely out of the play. Hopefull he can man up this weekend.

by LouisianaBruins on Sep 7, 2010 5:55 AM PDT reply actions  

me too... gimme the points.

"Be more concerned with your character than your reputation, because your character is what you really are, while your reputation is merely what others think you are." --John Wooden

by avtwvi on Sep 7, 2010 10:32 AM PDT up reply actions  

Question for Nestor

How would you compare the development of the Stanford program under Harbaugh to the development of the UCLA program under Rick? I would also like to know what you think Stanford and UCLA football will look like 3 years from now. I personally think UCLA will be in better shape because Harbaugh will leave Stanford no later than after next season.

by 110 South on Sep 7, 2010 7:06 AM PDT reply actions  

You can always read up our posts ...

… re development of UCLA football program under CRN and then do some research on Harbaugh. You can get to the recruiting sites and program records with the links available on the left side of our blog.

by Nestor on Sep 7, 2010 7:15 AM PDT up reply actions  

Harbaugh's team is a solid

favorite on our home field at the beginning of year 3.

by paulucla on Sep 7, 2010 7:20 AM PDT up reply actions  

I think that our program will still be in better shape

Whether or not Harbaugh leaves. We are on our way up and making improvements each year. Their all-world season last year still only netted 8 wins.

formerly Westwood78

by PhoenixBruin on Sep 7, 2010 9:33 AM PDT up reply actions  

Stanford OL out of sync?

A buddy of mine is a big Stanford fan, and said the OL was distinctly underwhelming in the run game. In particular, he described in graphic terms the pleasure he received last year from the smooth way the OL opened holes for Gerhart to run through, and said that same quality was distinctly lacking in the opener against Sac St – and not because of the quality of the RBs.

by britishbruin on Sep 7, 2010 7:22 AM PDT reply actions  

You should look through the game reports to get a sense

I might do it later but why wait for me to spoon feed you guys? :-)

by Nestor on Sep 7, 2010 7:24 AM PDT up reply actions  

I hope so...

especially if our entire defense is as out of sync as it was in the second half.

Roses are red, violets are blue...f*** $C.

by KSBruin on Sep 7, 2010 9:48 AM PDT up reply actions  

I like the fact that we are 7.5 pt underdogs

because a victory on Saturday will make it that much sweeter. I’m excited to see our secondary compete against Andrew “Jesus” Luck. He saw 8-man fronts with Gerhart in his backfield and played against Sac St. last week (BTW, its nice to see that our ol’ buddy, “the law firm”, has landed somewhere. I wish they could have given us a better look at what they have to offer though). They still have yet to be tested. I’m just praying that Bullough comes after Luck early and often.

formerly Westwood78

by PhoenixBruin on Sep 7, 2010 9:38 AM PDT reply actions  

Harbaugh

There are 3 reasons why Harbough gets so much attention as a coach…

1. He’s doing “well” considering this is his 1st D-1 head coaching gig. His last and only other head coaching experience was at the University of San Diego. Also, football expectations at Stanford have always been relatively low.

2. He’s made a lot of off-field comments like the “Caroll will be leaving USC in 1 yr” remark, then following it with “USC is the best football team in the country”.

3. Big Wins. As you remember, Stanford has had a couple big wins against none other than SUC in the last few years including last years 55-21 trouncing (coutesy of Toby G of course). Nevertheless, big wins agains SUC will always generate attention.

Anyway, let’s beat the crap out of Stanturd this weekend!!!!!!

by suctoejam on Sep 7, 2010 9:48 AM PDT reply actions  

Everything you say is true

I will point out though that the $C team that both Stanford and UW beat (and I wish we were a part of that group) finished 6th in the Pac-10 winning only 8 games themselves (a far cry from our 13-9 victory). I definiteyl get his accomplishments, what I don’t get is why the tradmed makes it seem as if we (and other teams) should chalk up a loss as soon as Harbaugh and his band of “well-coached” players blows in to town. Save for a few mistakes and penalties, we were in that game last year (on the road), and I think we have a better team this year. Do they? Can they beat us in Pasadena? I wish I had some money to bet on this one!

formerly Westwood78

by PhoenixBruin on Sep 7, 2010 10:04 AM PDT up reply actions  

4. Stanford has world-class PR

Stanford is exceptionally good at self-promotion and branding. They go to ridiculous lengths to present an image of other-world excellence. Of course they want everyone to believe that they hired the world’s greatest coach.

by KnudsenRockne on Sep 7, 2010 12:28 PM PDT up reply actions  

Interesting factoid re being Favorites vs. Underdogs

Up to this point, Neuheisel’s Bruins are a perfect 9-0 when Vegas picks them as favorites. Conversely, they are 2-14 when Vegas picks them as underdogs. So, essentially, Vegas has picked the winner of our games 23 out of the last 25 times.

The 2 times they didn’t were both against Tennessee.

If the trend continues, that doesn’t bode well for our season, where, at this point, I can only definitively say that we will be favored in one game (Wash St.).

FWIW.

Let’s hope we buck that trend this weekend.

"I don't forget very much" Rick Neuheisel, 11/28/09

by Blue Me on Sep 7, 2010 10:34 AM PDT reply actions   1 recs

Correction

2-15 including Kansas St.

"I don't forget very much" Rick Neuheisel, 11/28/09

by Blue Me on Sep 7, 2010 10:38 AM PDT up reply actions  

that pretty much fits with my take on what CRN's teams have done over the last 2 years

we have beaten the teams who are worse than us and lost to the teams that are better than us.

Part of that is the low variance strategy employed – if we took more risks we might have a better chance of creating upsets but also likely put ourselves in a position to lose to worse teams. Part of it is consistency (compare with the performances of the previous administration, where we were much more up and down). Part of it is having defense be our strength of the previous 2 years, which seems inherently less variable than offense (see Beamer’s Va Tech teams, who consistently rack up victories over inferior opponents but struggle to make breakthroughs against truly elite teams).

Once we get to the point where we are favored to beat more teams, we will appreciate the consistency.

by britishbruin on Sep 7, 2010 10:42 AM PDT up reply actions  

Had we beaten Kansas St. (and looked good doing it)

I would have seen us as slight favorites heading into this game.

Should we beat Stanford (and look good doing it), then I see us as favorites in our next game (v. Houston). And so on….

"I don't forget very much" Rick Neuheisel, 11/28/09

by Blue Me on Sep 7, 2010 11:10 AM PDT up reply actions  

In an arena where perception is everything

yes

"I don't forget very much" Rick Neuheisel, 11/28/09

by Blue Me on Sep 7, 2010 11:50 AM PDT up reply actions  

well

if Vegas betting lines are all about perception and not about probability, I need you to start giving me tips!

by britishbruin on Sep 7, 2010 7:33 PM PDT up reply actions  

It's all perception

Betting lines are set with the intent on getting equal action on both sides, hence what the perception is of where the betting public becomes equally divided. Vegas isn’t saying that there is a high or low probability that Stanford beats us by 7 or more points, it is saying that 7 1/2 points is where it is “perceived” Stanford will beat us, hence roughly half of us would bet higher, and the other half lower. Then the line moves accordingly if betting if heavier on one side or the other.

"I don't forget very much" Rick Neuheisel, 11/28/09

by Blue Me on Sep 7, 2010 7:58 PM PDT up reply actions  

True

Look at Laker lines, they always give them higher spreads to win b/c of all the LA fans to bet heavy on them to win. It is more about balanced bets vs true probablity. In the end, they just want their cut off the top, don’t care what really happens in the game.

by Bruin'96 on Sep 7, 2010 10:32 PM PDT up reply actions  

Houston is a very strong team.

I’m not sure we will be favorites, even if we beat Stanford.

I’m not saying we won’t beat Houston, but we will have to score more points to do it.

For obvious reasons I REALLY WANT US TO WIN THAT GAME!

sjh

by Class of 66 on Sep 7, 2010 5:32 PM PDT up reply actions  

Point Spread Really Suprises Me

Really surprises me to see us 7.5 home dogs to Stanford this Saturday. I would have expected maybe 3-4 points but 7.5? C’mon. That alone should be some bulletin board material for our guys in the locker room.

Just one quick observation on Stanford: As you recall, they started out fairly fast last year and, at one point, looked like they might seriously contend for the Rose Bowl. But they stumbled badly at the end; lost at home to Cal and then got beat in the Sun Bowl as well.

Nestor, interesting you should bring up that 1978 season opener against UDub. I vividly remember watching our 10-7 on TV that day. Brought back some good memories.

Los Angeles Rams and the UCLA Bruins!!!!!

by Minnesota Bruinfan on Sep 7, 2010 10:38 AM PDT reply actions  

the k-state game reminded me of gerhart...

i said before the season, i was leary about k-state. on the road against bill snyder, and even worse it was our first game of the year. i think we win it in november or december, even with daniel thomas.

we only lost by 8 last year, on the road, against gerhart, and 8 in the box. obviously we’re missing BP this year (and ATV), but our defense seems to be almost as good, while our offense should definitely be improved. i think we can give the furd 24 again this year, maybe even a bit more, but i’m not sure they can stop us, or even slow us down.

"Be more concerned with your character than your reputation, because your character is what you really are, while your reputation is merely what others think you are." --John Wooden

by avtwvi on Sep 7, 2010 10:46 AM PDT reply actions  

Our D may not be as good over all as it was last year ...

but it is more even. Last year we had a few super-studs but we had some weak links. Our opponents quickly learned to avoid Price & ATV and pick on our less experienced defenders. A lot of the big plays we gave up were due to our weak links breaking or our studs having to cover for the weaker players and getting out of position.

I’m looking forward to an improved D this season because it will not be so easy to find our weaknesses.

by KnudsenRockne on Sep 7, 2010 12:35 PM PDT up reply actions  

Looking forward

to being at the Rose Bowl for the opener, as we have been for more than 25 years now. It will be interesting to see how many fans show up, especially after our losing debut at K-State. Just a comment or two: first of all, after all those yards we gave up against a team we knew was going to run, it is clear that every team we face is going to test us on the ground. That certainly applies to Stanford, even though they have Luck and Owasu and a lot of other capable receivers. But Harbaugh has always favored a balanced attack, and they will try to run. It is also clear that everybody we face is going to test Sheldon Price. That is just the way it is. We will just have to play the game. There are things that Bullough could and should do, as many BN observers have pointed out. We will see. On a positive note, the offense is greatly improved, Prince and his receivers are bound to do better, and Chow finally seems ready to open things up. You know, once you establish the running game, everything else gets better. Some of the young talent looks great, and I believe things are definitely looking up. So bring ’em on. I think we are no worse than even. But then, I always think that. Go Bruins!

by ReineSeite on Sep 7, 2010 10:47 AM PDT reply actions  

About that media infation with Harbaugh

I think it might stem more from the perception that he is winning despite the shackles of high academic standards. I remember reading an article in which a former football assistant suggested that in a given year there were only about 75 D1 caliber recruits that could qualify to attend Stanford. If this is the case, then you almost have to be more impressed with an eight win season from Harbaugh than, for example, a 12 win season from a Nick Saban. From everything I’ve read, it sounds as though Harbaugh does in fact play against a pretty heavily stacked deck.

by LVBruin on Sep 7, 2010 10:50 AM PDT reply actions  

If there are only 75 eligible...

it probably makes it easier for them to come in under-budget for recruiting. It allows them to focus in on their targets casting a smaller than normal net.
Perhaps this is one reason they could buy Harbaugh a very expensive toilet.

by Westwood is the best wood on Sep 7, 2010 11:04 AM PDT up reply actions  

That stat only applies to regular admissions. Very few if any of the current Stanford football players would get into Stanford without football. You think each Stanford football player was in the top 3% of their high school class, I think not.

Admissions might be a little stricter than UCLA, but not as much as people might think. When comparing to $C, that is a different story. I remember guys from our high school water polo teams with GPA’s of leff than 2.5 getting into $C literally because of family donations.

by suctoejam on Sep 7, 2010 10:20 PM PDT up reply actions  

Maybe not each...

But Luck was the co-valedictorian of his high school.

Gerhart also was the valedictorian of his high school.

Jamal Patterson (WR) had a 4.4 40, and a 4.5 GPA in high school

Owusu only had a 4.3 GPA in high school.

Marecic has a 3.98 gpa currently as a Human Biology major.

maybe not EVERYONE is top 3%, but the list goes on, look it up.

And for something we can agree on: USC is a joke.

(wanted to post sooner, but moderator had to approve me)

by CardinalRules07 on Sep 10, 2010 1:59 PM PDT up reply actions  

Ugly Tree

A little rememberance of years past. It was 1954 and the score was 72 to 0. It is time to start a new memory and tradition to chop down that ugly tree. If we open up and play to our abilty we have the team to do it. Go Bruins

by Blue Critter on Sep 7, 2010 11:50 AM PDT reply actions  

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