Bruin Men need a 7-1 Streak

by ucla7477 on Jan 29, 2011 5:57 PM PST

Some commentators have said the team has 3 must-win games in a row, the first of which they barely managed today. More realistically, they need to put together a 7-1 run, which means win 6 of the next 7. Here's why:

1. The only "good win" this year was BYU and the only "good loss" this year was Kansas (and maybe Villanova). These count for less after today's upset losses by two of these foes.

2. There is no opportunity for a "good win" in the eight game stretch that started today. ASU: worst team in the conference. USC: middle-of-the-Pac who already beat the Bruins. St. Johns: coached by not-Wooden. Oregon & OSU: losing conference records. (All of the preceding 4 are home games.) Stanford: see the Oregons. Cal: middle-of-the-Pac who nearly beat us in Pauley. ASU: see above. One loss among these eight would be very bad, and horrid if it were to come at home. Two losses among these eight and we're out of the tournament discussion.

3. The final three games have two ranked teams, one at home and one on the road (the deadly Washington trip). If we win 7 of 8 prior to these, then we've reached the 20-win plateau and almost certainly assured a third place finish in the league. Then win one of the final three and at least one game in the Pac-10 Tourney and we are in. If we stumble twice in the 8-stretch, then we have to win two of these three and probably at least two in the Tourney, since we'd not be considered "on the bubble" until the final game.

Do they have what it takes? The margin for error is very small.

This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of BruinsNation's (BN) editors. It does reflect the views of this particular fan though, which is as important as the views of BN's editors.

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I think we're going to need more than that

I think we’re going to need to win all the games you mentioned, plus, at least one more quality win, which would mean beating Arizona or Washington in the regular or post-season. Quality wins are going to be a big discussion point with us because the Pac 10 is universally considered easily the worst of the major conferences, which will keep our RPI uncomfortably high and render the 20 win plateau meaningless.

by Blue Me on Jan 29, 2011 6:19 PM PST reply actions

I don't know about easily the worst

The SEC overall is probably just as bad. Of course, if you limit the judgment to teams that have a shot at making the tournament, then yes, the Pac 10 is the worst.

by Tydides on Jan 29, 2011 6:27 PM PST up reply actions

Oh, and BYU lost today

To a team with a losing conference record. So…yeah.

by Tydides on Jan 29, 2011 6:29 PM PST up reply actions

Yes.

At least Kansas won and Villanova’s loss was to a ranked team.

by ucla7477 on Jan 29, 2011 6:41 PM PST up reply actions

One thing that will help us...

After a 3-4 start, we went 10-3, so adding a 7-1 run would mean a 17-4 streak prior to the final three regular-season contests. The selection committee does look at things like injuries along the way, is the team playing well or poorly in the final month, and who the coach is. These would all put us “in the discussion” and then we have to deal with the final three and the conference tournament.

by ucla7477 on Jan 29, 2011 6:48 PM PST reply actions

True

but everyone knows that the conference games are played at the end so, again, I think the selection committee will see through that and is still going to ponder whether we are worthy if we don’t throw up at least one more quality win. Maybe I’m being paranoid. Maybe the stupid 4-team expansion of the tournament will give us a little more wiggle room. Who knows. Better to leave no doubt.

by Blue Me on Jan 29, 2011 7:03 PM PST up reply actions

Funny thing, that

The 4 extra teams, along with the NCAA trying to legitimize these play-in games by putting major conference teams in instead of minor conference champions actually makes me significantly more optimistic about our chances of getting in.

by Tydides on Jan 29, 2011 7:39 PM PST up reply actions

Also,

Struggling to beat the conference doormats doesn’t help our cause.

by Blue Me on Jan 29, 2011 7:05 PM PST up reply actions

Disagree

Just like losing to Kansas doesn’t strenghten our resume. A win is a win and a loss is a loss. The big thing the tournament committee looks at is how you play down the stretch. We finish third in the Pac-10 and get to 20 wins, the Bruins are in the tourney.

by Waitingfornumber12 on Jan 30, 2011 6:01 PM PST up reply actions

optimistically, the game @ washington is the only one we'll lose

because our rematches with Arizona and $C are at home

by BruinEngy on Jan 29, 2011 11:16 PM PST reply actions

We have the talent to win any game we play

IF we play to our talent level.

Whether we play to our talent level, for an entire game, has been the question of the season.

I see growth in the game of individual players. I do not see growth in our playing consistent, intense, effective basketball for an entire game.

I’m glad I don’t bet on these games. I can’t see how anyone can predict if we will play 10 strong minutes or 30.

And, because of that, I’ll just focus on one game at a time and not worry about streaks. Right now, the only game we have to win is the next one. And, we really have to win that one for many reasons — the least of which is tournament qualification.