QB Rating and UCLA Football Mediocrity
by LVBruin on Oct 14, 2011 6:11 AM PDT
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PrintDisclaimer: yes, I just watch Moneyball and yes, this post was partially inspired by some of the ideas tossed around in the picture.
With Moneyball and our struggling football program in mind I decided to do some number crunching to try and find out which statistics tend to correspond closely with Win Percentage in college football. First I went to this site and downloaded every statistic they had for the 2010 season. I then converted totals to per/game figures and proceeded to find the correlation coefficient for every set of stats when matched up with the corresponding Win Percentages.
Just so everyone's on the same page, the correlation coefficient is a number between +1 and -1 representing the strength of the relationship between two sets of data, both +1 and -1 imply a direct relationship between the two variables, the closer you get to 0, the weaker the correlation.
So out of the 227 statistics I found on the site (ranging from tackles for loss per game to 2 point conversions allowed per game), here are your top ten in terms of correlation to win percentage:
| Points Per Game | 0.81049953 |
| PATs Made Per Game | 0.79050482 |
| PATs Attempted Per Game | 0.78464958 |
| Touchdowns Per Game | 0.77840344 |
| Red Zone Scores Per Game | 0.76282977 |
| Yards Per Play | 0.74268679 |
| Kick Returns Against Per Game | 0.73686075 |
| QB Rating | 0.73576187 |
| Red Zone Attempts Per Game | 0.73351997 |
| Red Zone Tds Per Game | 0.71731558 |
So, for the most part, this list should elicit a massive "no s***" from the crowd. Obviously many of these statistics are directly linked to each other ("So you're saying teams with a lot of touchdowns also score a lot of points and make a lot of PATs and their opponents return a lot of kicks?"). The stat I'd like to focus on though, is one of the two oddballs - "QB Rating".
To give you an idea of how important an efficient QB is when putting together a winning team, here are the top ten teams in terms of overall QB Rating from the 2010 season and their final ranking in the AP Poll.
| Team | QB Rating | Record | Final Rank |
| Auburn | 180.56 | 14-0 | 1 |
| Boise State | 179.95 | 12-1 | 9 |
| Stanford | 168.24 | 12-1 | 4 |
| Wisconsin | 168.08 | 11-2 | 7 |
| Alabama | 167.79 | 10-3 | 10 |
| TCU | 166.84 | 13-0 | 2 |
| Arkansas | 162.19 | 10-3 | 12 |
| Ohio State | 157.76 | 12-1 | 5 |
| Navy | 156.64 | NR | 3 votes |
| Iowa | 155.72 | NR | 54 votes |
Now, I'm not saying that a great QB would be the answer to all our problems right now but I will note that the last three times we had a QB rank in the top 10 in QB Rating were 2005, 1998 and 1997. That would be our three 10-win seasons in relatively recent memory. Our combined QB Rating for the '99-'04 and '06-'10 seasons on the other hand was an abysmal 118 and our record not surprisingly was similarly sorry (fewer than 6 wins per season).
Just as a reminder, this is what it looks like when a college football team has a top 10 quarterback.
Those were highlights from three games folks, and not even all the highlights, just the ones that would fit into the run time of "Sons of Westwood".
Again, I'm not saying that we shouldn't be better than we are right now and I'm not apologizing for Rick but I think this goes a ways toward answering some of the questions that have come up over the past few weeks. For example, why does Stanford crush us when we've recruited better? Well, in part because they recruited better in the one position that matters way more than any other. And why did we struggle to beat San Jose State and Wazzu? Maybe because we don't have the ability to connect on the all-important big plays with any sort of consistency.
This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of BruinsNation's (BN) editors. It does reflect the views of this particular fan though, which is as important as the views of BN's editors.
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Love these posts LV
I stumbled into an NFL show on ESPN last night called the "audible" (while channel surfing for a quick look at the baseball scores). Trent Dilfer, Meshawn Joshnson (gah), Herm Edwards and Steve Young were discussing which teams have looked good or bad in first quarter of NFL action. One segment was focused on the 49ers and my ears perked up.
What Dilfer said was really interesting to me. Apparently Coach Harbaugh and his staff during the lockout period went over every single snap Alex Smith had ever taken in a Niner uniform. They then charted the snaps/plays to discern the pattern, which formation/plays made him more comfortable than others.
Based on that data centric observation they have been structuring the Niners offensive game plan this year, which has Smith more as a "game manager," than the total field general we see in rock stars such as Brady and Breese. It’s no coincidence that V. Davis is getting more involved in game plans. Niners are throwing more short passes and using the run game to set up.
Now Harbaugh is using a "conservative" template but it works for him because he has a fundamentally sound defense this yesterday (would have been interesting if Neuheisel was able to hire Vic Fangio when he got here, instead of having to hold on to Dewayne Walker – perhaps topic for another day). Still I found the information on Smith/Niners interesting. The results are kind of amazing as Smith right now is the third highest rated QB in the league, on pace to have a 20 TD/4 Int season.
I still think Neuheisel is a good QB coach. He has track record to back it up. I think the offense has been slightly better than the listless and lifeless versions we had under Chow. However, we do need to get our QBs up to speed. Prince did have a solid freshman year. It has been perplexing to see how he had regressed. Perhaps the Wazzu game will give him some confidence. I thought Brehaut was getting better this year.
Very interested to see how Prince performs on Saturday. He should do well against that Arizona defense (at least I hope he will be well prepared by Neuheisel and his staff). And if Hundley is worked into the game action, I hope it is done in game flow, taking advantage of Hundley’s strongest attributes.
Anyways, just some things to chew on. Thanks for the post again LV. It certainly gets you thinking.
Agree
the QBs look better since Neuheisel made it his job.
Knowing your talent > having a system
Awesome info about the Niners and Smith. Frustrating to think about the coaches who have asked a solid QB to do things that he simply couldn’t do making said solid QB look like a bum.
I’ve always said that the ability to adjust to the talents of your team is the single most important skill for youth coaches all the way up to the high school level. It becomes slightly less important at the college level where you are allowed to hand pick your players to fit you style and the players are presumably good learners but still, you can’t try to fit square pegs into the round hole of your system (cough, Pistol, cough).
My biggest issue with Neu as a talent manager has always been his unwillingness to swing for the fences. He has potential home run hitters amongst his wideouts but he seems more afraid of the possible negative results than excited by the possibility of the long TD. How many times have we thrown to Randal Carrol on a streak? Even if 50% of those attempts go the way it did last Saturday (ball off the fingertips, should have been caught) the other 50% have a very good chance of ending up touchdowns (two 40+ yard bomb TDs last year).
+1 Prince's progress and regress
Great article post & reply to read and contemplate. Seems to me in the past few years Prince has regressed in the passing game but significantly progressed in the running game (not counting the beating he takes when he runs the ball).
Kevin’s quickness and agility for a big man is surprising and really fun to watch. If he could improve his pass reads, execution and ball protection, it would a huge step into improving our scoring opportunities. I agree with Nestor, LV’s correlations certainly gives much food for thought. Thanks again.
by iLOATHEscFOREVER on Oct 15, 2011 7:34 AM PDT up reply actions
I don't see that.
I am surprised anyone would say Prince is passing worse now than in 2010. Sure, he has thrown some wild passes and put some into coverage but he was doing plenty of that in 2010…
Ya know, last season, Kevin Prince acquired an anti-fan club: people who boo’d him when he came in for Brehaut. They view everything he does through jaundiced eyes. If Prince throws into coverage it’s a bad read but if anyone else makes a similar throw it’s ‘gusty.’ If Prince’s throw is off he’s a bad passer, but if Bre throws a bad ball he was under pressure. When Prince gets hurt going for an extra yard or two he’s foolish or fragile, when anyone else gets hurt running the ball he’s a warrior or a competitor.
Double standards are ugly – and unneeded: using the same measuring stick, Brehaut comes out the better quarterback anyway.
Play with so much passion nothing else matters
by KnudsenRockne on Oct 15, 2011 2:28 PM PDT up reply actions
depends to what extent you think QB rating is a reflection of the QB
versus overall team competence, scheme, schedule, receivers catching the ball…
I think the numbers are interesting, but don’t really make a convincing case that this shows the overwhelming importance of an efficient QB to putting together a winning time.
Are you kidding me right now?!
I have been working on a similar post all morning! What the heck!
Well, mine will have a more historical slant. Stay tuned.
Awesome post.
But hey, what do I know. I’m just the 800 lbs bruin in the room.
Sorry tasser
great minds. I’m sure that you can put together a few fanposts with the info you have if it looks like the spreadsheet that I have. Did you watch Moneyball too?
I read the book but haven't seen the movie
My approach is a bit more historical than yours but the data is nearly the same.
And your post is awesome, I was just kidding.
But hey, what do I know. I’m just the 800 lbs bruin in the room.
I was having so much fun watching the video...
until the game it ended with. Misery. Other than that, great post.
Roses are red, violets are blue...f*** $C.
Yeah
thought someone might mention that. Unfortunately, the only highlights I could find from the ‘97-’98 run were of the Texas games, the SUC games and the Miami game and the SUC videos were even grainier than the ones above. You gotta admit that the two clips from the Miami game are just pretty though.
Any defensive correlations like points allowed per game?
Seems like in college football offense>defense.
You are correct sir
I’ll have a post on that soon.
But hey, what do I know. I’m just the 800 lbs bruin in the room.
Play BH!
7 for 9 in two minute drill, with one spike and one dropped pass and he still scored a TD.
Say no more. Put him in and let him show what he can do. He performs and/or he learns or both. It’s a win-win.
GO BRUINS!
Great post, couldn't agree more
Prince and Bre are great Bruins, but I’m dying to see Hundley.
Did you guys watch Cal vs. U$C?
At this point, I expect Hundley to look like the Cal QB in a live game. And it ain’t pretty. Just don’t think he’s quite ready yet.
But hey, what do I know. I’m just the 800 lbs bruin in the room.
How about Cade's freshman year?
I don’t recall, but I think he had decent numbers. Not great, but certainly decent. I would be willing to give Hundley a chance to put up not great but decent numbers. Every time I look at successful teams, I see a fast QB, and that’s something we just don’t have. Or maybe they just look slow and they’re actually reallly fast. Or maybe they’re actually slow.
Look at the Csde highlights here!
They prove your point on quickness. He is rushed many times but gets the ball off quickly or steps up quickly or rolls out quickly, much faster than our guys today. And that was with some really good offensive lines.
We know pretty much what KP and Bre can do. Play the kid. He’s earned it just with those gaudy practice numbers.
It’s a win-win. You can always go back to KP.
I hear ya
But I think Hundley’s rated much higher than Cal’s qb (I honestly know very little about him other than he looked awful last night.) What I like about Hundley, though, is if he’s unsure he can tuck and run. I think he’s fast enough to go the distance if he has to. Cade did a lot of that his first year, too. He somehow made it happen. That’s what I’m hopeful for.
Thanx, LV!!
A single value decomposition might be able to find natural clusters of these stats.
With those we may find which things have the largest effect on W/L’s.
I may have to down load a set of these to play with them, too.
Cool!
Play with so much passion nothing else matters
If you leave out the obvious - TDs and TD-related stuff - what would the next ten be?
I don’t know the formula for QB rating, but I think TD passes is involved. So leaving out that, what would be another indicator of a winning team? First downs, or 3rd down efficiency, I’m guessing.
And I’ve got to know – where is the “all important time of possession statistic”?
I appreciate the work you put in on these posts
And yes there is a correlation but it’s not the whole story because I think having a solid and great defense numbers helps the QB and the offense tremendously. If you remember, during the Cade era our biggest downfall was the lack of D. We were able to win a majority of the games because Cade had monster years behind a great offensive line but at the end the lack of D caught up to us and cost us a chance at a National Championship.
Although Brehaut is no Cade (or nearly the same offensive line he had) our QB play has been good enough to at least be 5-1 or 4-2 but the lack of defense has sadly dictated what we can do on offense.
So if would be interesting to see the correlation between QB rating and defensive stats.
May be you can blog that post?
And share with us your findings. Always good to take initiatives.
by Nestor on Oct 15, 2011 6:08 AM PDT via mobile up reply actions
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