Intelligent Scheduling in the Modern CFB Landscape
by orlandobruin on Nov 11, 2011 4:33 AM PST
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PrintBumped. GO BRUINS - BN Eds.
This post was originally a reply in the thought-provoking thread about our AD's decision to schedule UCLA against Texas at the new Cowboy Stadium in Arlington, Texas, in a 2014 season where we are already slated to play Virginia at Virginia.
After I typed the lengthy reply, I realized it should probably be in a stand alone post.
I have posted before about the nature of UCLA's scheduling and the scheduling of the Pac 12 in general. I have always been proud of the fact that UCLA has never scheduled a non-Division 1A (i.e., non-FBS) opponent. That does not mean, however, that The Morgan Center should go out and load up our schedule with tough OOC games like they are doing in 2014.
I used to ridicule the SEC for its cream puff scheduling and the seemingly superior nature of UCLA and, in general, the old Pac 10, to schedule tough OOC opponents versus the SEC's nature to schedule cream puffs.
Well, my thoughts on the matter have changed after living in Florida for 15 years and seeing how the SEC works. Those SEC teams (who only play an 8 conference game schedule) typically go 3-0 at home against those cream puffs, and maybe have one tough OOC game.
Then the good teams do well in conference and end up in a New Year's Day bowl game or better. The bad teams can go 3-5 or 2-6 in conference, end up 6-6 and still go to a bowl game. Follow me after the jump for an analysis of 3 such teams and their scheduling in the 2011 season.
Look at Auburn last year: Ark St. @ home; Clemson @ home (the "tough" OOC game); Louisiana Monroe @ home; and Tennessee-Chattanooga @ home. BTW, not including the SEC championship game and the national championship game, Auburn played 8 home games and 4 road game (all OOC games at home). That is setting up a season for success. They didn't gave the guts but got ALL the glory. i.e., a national championship and a Heisman Trophy
Look at Alabama last year: San Jose St. @ home; Penn. St. @ home (the "tough" OOC game); Duke on the road; Goergia State @ home. 3 home games and one road game against a BCS team but a doormat BCS team. Alabama played 7 home games, 5 road games and went 9-3 in the regular season, which got them into a New Year's Day bowl game, which they won, to go 10-3. That's setting up a season for success, although Bama fans consider 10-3 with a loss to Auburn to be a down season.
Now, look at Kentucky last year (or pretty much any year): @ Louisville (the "tough" OOC game); Western Kentucky @ home; Akron @ home; Charleston Southern @ home. 3 cream puffs and a road game against their OOC rival. Kentucky goes 4-0 OOC. 2-6 in the SEC. 7 home games and 5 road games. 6-6 and a bowl game.
So clearly, the no risk no reward thing isn't happening in the SEC. And it has worked for them. Over the years, their bowl ties are amazing. Did you know that the #6 SEC team plays in a New Year's Day bowl (the Gator Bowl)? With BCS teams removed from the mix, this actually means the 7th or 8th best team in the SEC plays in a New Year's Day bowl game. A 3 loss Miss. St. team played in the Gator Bowl last season. Last year a 5 loss Florida team played in the Outback Bowl (also a New Year's Day bowl). Compare that to the very weak bowls for even the Pac 12 #2 team (Alamo, not on New Years Day). Some pronosticators have a 2 loss Oregon team playing in the Alamo Bowl. I guess the guts of playing LSU in what was essentially a home game for LSU might not pay off for the Ducks.
So, although I used to agree with the mantra to go out a schedule the best, in this day and age of college football, intelligent scheduling wins out over a "no guts no glory" approach. In the Pac 12 (with 9 conference games) that means, if you are UCLA, in seasons where you play 4 home games and 5 road games in conference, all of the OOC games should be played at home with one marquee opponent. In seasons where you play 5 home games and 4 road games in conference, 2 OOC games should played at home and one on the road, with one marquee opponent. That means 7 home games every season. 6 home games and 6 road games (or worse) is not going to cut it anymore.
For UCLA, 2011 featured 5 conference home games and 4 conference road games. I am assuming therefore, that under the new PAC 12 regime, UCLA will play 5 conference home games and 4 conference road games in odd numbers years and 4 conference home games and 5 conference road games in even numbered years. That means that, in even numbered years (2012, 2014, 2016, etc.) it is critical that we not load up on OOC road games. I would argue, as stated above, that in these types of years, UCLA should play ALL of its OOC games at home.
Well, Dan Guerrero just screwed the pooch for 2014. In Dallas for Texas (this is not about as much of a neutral site game as if UCLA played Texas at The Big A); @ Virginia (according to at least two Web sites, it appears that the Virginia game has been rescheduled to August 30. See our tentative future schedules here); and one other TBA game (it better be at home game against the likes of New Mexico State). In a 12 game season it appears that UCLA will now play 5 home games and 7 road games. Remember, some SEC teams will be playing 8 at home. Now look at 2016. @ Rutgers; @ Nevada; TBA. Another season with only 5 home games (assuming the TBA game is at home). This unnecessarily puts UCLA behind the 8 ball and sets them back from teams that have 7 or 8 home games. UCLA's administration is essentially tilting the playing field against UCLA!
Next season we are @Rice, with Nebraska and Houston at home. 6 home games and 6 road games. Next season would fit into my model of intelligent scheduling if Rice was a home game.
The bottom line is, if UCLA is going to have success in the future, the Morgan Center needs to take an intelligent approach to scheduling to maximize UCLA's oportunities, while also allowing for one marquee OOC opponent a year.
This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of BruinsNation's (BN) editors. It does reflect the views of this particular fan though, which is as important as the views of BN's editors.
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Fantastic post OB
Thank you so much for expanding on the arguments we laid out yesterday. This is really helpful. One of the reasons we started this community was to get UCLA sports to think smartly and strategically about how a program is managed. The whole idea of “play anyone, anywhere” is great on paper but it is set for pre-BCS era.
Every freaking game counts in college football and a program should be exploring every possible angle (within the rules) to ensure that the team is best positioned for post-season runs. What we are doing right now is guided by either old school thinking or from perspective of pure money grab. It is really serving our program short. It’s too bad that some UCLA fans are not understanding this despite the arguments we are laying out. Let’s keep at it.
Thanks, N.
The funny thing is that I only read the posts through where I posted a similar comment in the thread. Then, after stopping and reading the FanPost, I saw a lot of similar comments toward the end of the thread. For example, the term “strategic scheduling” was used, very similar to “intelligent scheduling.”
by orlandobruin on Nov 11, 2011 6:48 AM PST up reply actions
Derp. Should read:
" . . . stopping and writing the FanPost . . ."
by orlandobruin on Nov 11, 2011 6:49 AM PST up reply actions
Frankly…this is an eye opening, thoughtful and compelling post.
And fact of the matter is that here is another example of Grr-errors inexperience. That’s is no previous Div I football experience…at all.
This guy doesn’t appear to be even "aware" of what it really takes, doesn’t apparently sit up nights trying to figure out how to get better at this aspect of his job, probably doesn’t have a support network of AD contacts whose advice he can seek and trust…he just drifts from self created crisis to self created crisis. Here we go again.
Our scheduling has been suspect during this 10 year drought. Anybody remember the years Donahue used to schedule powerhouses like Long Beach State each year?
Maybe this is something that the Pac-12, as a group though the commissioner’s office should fix. It would be to the Pac-12’s benefit to manage all the game scheduling for each member in order to maximize the potential for Pac-12 teams to play in meaningful bowl games.
If the Pac-12 had to approve this match-up, maybe big mistakes like this would be avoided.
Whats kind of interesting ...
Few casual fans are still not understanding what a deeply flawed decision this really is and how much it reveals about our admin’s lack of awareness wrt to how CFB decisons are gamesm out by high powered programs. I really hope those guys read through the arguments I laid out in my last two posts and the one from OB here instead of just falling for the cheap lure of playing in a tacky NFL stadium.
by Nestor on Nov 11, 2011 6:55 AM PST via mobile up reply actions
Great idea GemCity...
Since Larry Scott has come to town, the PAC-12 has taken a more business-like approach to their dealings and from all indications it seems to have lifted the conference as a whole and improved the conference’s image across the country.
Now for the next step…manage the scheduling. Strategic scheduling (I love that term) is the way to go to enhance the PAC-12 brand and continue to improve our image. If, as the old cliche goes, a rising tide lifts all boats, it would behoove the PAC-12 to make sure that all the member schools shine in the best possible light. This will build the business, enhance recruiting advantages across the board, and provide PAC-12 exposure in places where it is currently lacking.
Considering that each school has 3 OOC opportunities each year, the PAC-12 should make certain that those opportunities are really opportune and they benefit the conference first and not the wild whims of an Athletic Director whose vision (such as it is) only reaches as far as his nose.
The Moron Center's logic
is probably that not enough people show up to the OOC games at the Rose Bowl because school hasn’t started yet, so instead they travel to go play tough opponents to get paid. You thought I was joking when I said they want UCLA to be everyone’s cupcake, but when you have that shower curtain ring salesman mentality, all you care about is making a buck.
But hey, what do I know. I’m just the 800 lbs bruin in the room.
I do not aspire to copy the SEC baloney.
Which is why I have always preferred the PAC to their crap. We have beaten Alabama at Alabama and Michigan at Michigan and Tennessee at Tennessee and Texas at Texas. I could go on. We have not always been the best, but we have never been chickenshit, like they are, playing non-FBS schools to pad their record. We have always been above that.
It is shameful Auburn could win the NC with such a crapola schedule, but that’s only because of the current BS favoritism over this overvalued conference. I’d like to see those suckers play in the old round robin PAC 10. It’s a self fulfilling prophecy. They win so many mythical NC’s because they can lose 1 or even 2 games and still play for it even when three to five of their games are beyond cupcakes. We have to be perfect to have a prayer. Look at Stanford this year. 1 loss Alabama is ahead of them right now! So if we do cupcakes, the media will discount us even more.
Just like the bowl tie ins. They will only get worse if we weaken our schedule because of the misperception of SEC power.
We are better and can do better. Nor has our schedule been particularly tough this year either.
Nor do I want to see crappy cupcake games at home. OTH I would love to see those SEC teams come to the Rose Bowl, but they are rarely willing to do so because they are exposed.
Should we insist on home and homes? Yes. That is the better practice, but even Oregon agreed to play LSU this year in a marquee matchup. I don’t think that was a mistake. The mistake was playing a freshman the first game in key spots so he could fumble because of jitters.
When the PAC 12 gets its just dues, and our bowl tie ins get better, maybe things will balance out. In the meantime, let’s demand excellence from our AD and our coaches. We have crushed Texas twice in Austin. Dallas is no different.
God willing, I will be in Dallas in 2014 and watch us cream them again. Enough of this negativity, people. We are UCLA.
I used to think like you.
The SEC has won the last 5 national championship games. LSU. Alabama, Oregon, and Florida x 2. Almost every SEC game is shown on national TV. At some point, perception becomes reality.
Also, I don’t want to have to choose between Dallas and Charlottesville in 2014. I doubt I’ll be able to go to both. I prefer going to college towns. Scheduling two OOC games so far away from UCLA will dilute fan travel to both games, IMHO.
by orlandobruin on Nov 11, 2011 8:29 AM PST up reply actions
Orlando,
Let’s be positive! We will win in both when Hundley has this team rolling! And maybe I can see you at one of those games!
GO BRUINS!
Neither is
Playing not to lose in your scheduling.
We are better than that.
I want DG replaced, too, but I demand excellence. I don’t accept mediocrity playing the game or in scheduling.
We’ve done it before. We can do it again.
Playing not to lose?
What are you talking about?
I would have been perfectly fine if this game at Cowboy Stadium was against Florida or Michigan. But to play Texas in what is essentially a home game for them, without a return engagement, is stupid. Plain and simple. It doesn’t matter how good the team is, that is not the point. Two road games against BCS opponents in 2 weeks is as dumb as it gets.
But hey, what do I know. I’m just the 800 lbs bruin in the room.
+1
Los Angeles Rams and the UCLA Bruins!!!!!
by Minnesota Bruinfan on Nov 11, 2011 10:50 AM PST up reply actions
Playing not to lose is Rick's Motto
and only strategy. If you don’t like that then how can you support the 3+ years “punting is winning” and “keep it close and see if we can’t pull one out” mentality?
I hope you are right.
Unlike many on this site, I was excited when we scheduled two Thursday night games last season and it did not work out. Neither did the Thursday night game this season, so its tough for me to try to stay positive in light of this new development.
by orlandobruin on Nov 11, 2011 9:07 AM PST via mobile up reply actions
Yep
Thursday night games were set up to be total debacles. Until our program is well set up it is absurd for us to go out of our way to set up these “nationally televised” games.
by Nestor on Nov 11, 2011 9:26 AM PST via mobile up reply actions
I agree the Thursday night games are a bad idea
Especially bad for the fans. Bad for home attendance. Bad for travel.
They’re only good for espn.
I would think an easy fix
would be to flip the home years in the Virginia series. For UCLA, it would allow them to play Virginia at home and Texas at Dallas in 2014, though it would mean playing @ Virginia and @ UNLV in 2015. But if UCLA is any good by then (or really even if they aren’t), a game in small Sam Boyd Stadium in east Vegas should be as close to a “home” away game as you can get. I would imagine lots of Bruins/fans traveling to that game.
Traveling to both Dallas and Virginia in the same year would be out for me (I’ve held season tix for 13 years now) — only one or the other. But I’d easily do Virginia and Las Vegas in the same year.
Would Virginia be willing to flip? Well, it would mean traveling to UCLA and UT-San Antonio (yes, they do have a football team, new this year) in 2014.
And I know this isn’t what is being argued here. This still leaves the “problem” of playing Virginia and Texas in the same year as OOC opponents. But I think it’s an easy solution and more respectable than backing out of commitments, and softens the schedule for UCLA enough to the point of being reasonable.
The fix is with a tournament
As long as the BCS is the BCS, I agree that UCLA’s AD is making a mistake by not scheduling more cupcake games. The entire PAC-12 is. (I would add that often our OOC “cupcakes” are against very good Western teams like Utah, Boise, Fresno or Hawaii, that can often go undefeated.)
However, the longer term solution is moving towards a playoff in college football. I know this blog is about UCLA, and what our administration is (not) doing. But a playoff would hammer the SEC teams. Much like the selection committee does currently for the tournament, those lower tier teams in the SEC would look bad come selection time when so many of their games were cupcake games.
Michael C
www.onviolence.com
I'd add to this
by pointing that SEC teams already play national title contenders every year. They can afford to schedule cupcakes because of the quality of their conference opponents. The PAC-12 just isn’t quite there yet imho. We are very close, but still a hair below SEC quality. I think we need at least one game against a top 15 OOC opponent each year to offset the difference between in-conference opponents. I get what you guys are saying in terms of overall odds for W/L success, but I just don’t agree that what’s good for the SEC powers is good for UCLA.
Orlando you make great points, but let me point you back to the PAC12 this year. Look at Stanford – they are undefeated and still probably won’t go to the title game (assuming they win tomorrow) unless somebody gets a fluke upset against O(k)SU or LSU (their OOC slate was pretty weak with games against SJSU and Duke). Oregon on the other hand would be likely be looking at a title shot with a win this weekend, if they had defeated LSU. That’s the difference between the SEC and the PAC12. I’d rather be gunning for a title shot every year than a chance at a nice bowl game…
Nestor, as far as your point about waiting till we’re good to schedule those games… We have no idea what our talent will look like in 2014 or anytime you schedule these matches three years out. In fact, let’s say we’re Stanford or Oregon this year, that doesn’t guarantee we’ll be good in 2014. I’m an optimist about these things and our talent has been trending upward the last few years. I expect we’ll be higher caliber program (in terms of talent) than we are now in three years.
If Stanford goes undefeated they will end up in the BCS championshp game
So that argument is not very strong. If you think that an undefeated Stanford team is going to be left out of BCS championship game, you are smoking serious crack.
Also, using Oregon as an example doesn’t fly. Oregon at least scheduled LSU in Dallas. What UCLA is doing with Texas is tantamount to scheduling LSU in New Orleans. Moreover, Oregon’s other 2 games besides LSU this year was Nevada and Missouri State. So there scheduling is consistent with the argument we have made
The bottom line for 2014 is UCLA made a dumb move by scheduling a Texas team in Dallas without getting any return engagement. You can expect whatever the heck you want. But you don’t make engagements like that unless your program is in solid footing. We are not there. If you want to argue that we are there already than you are delusional.
It isn't a given that Stanford goes at all...
Look at the quality of wins that Stanford would have vs OkSU if they both win out.
Stanford quality wins: Oregon BCS#7, USC AP#18, maybe Notre Dame, UCLA or Wash end up ranked.
OkSU quality wins: BCS #6 Okhlahoma, BCS#14 KSU, BCS#25 Baylor, BCS#16 Texas
I thought it was nuts when I heard it OkSU might go ahead of Stanford when I heard it too, but then I looked at the schedule and BCS rankings.
You are right about the return engagement. I can’t argue with that. It is a home game for Texas for sure, but unless Texas never wants to play us after 2014, I can’t imagine them not coming back this way at some point. It’ll be their turn.
I didn’t argue our talent is there yet – just that it is trending that way in recent years. I have no idea what to expect in 2014.
Lets bet a round of beer
If undefeated Stanford goes to BCS championship game you buy me a round when we have our BN party in Boulder next year. If that’s not the case its me picking it up!
by Nestor on Nov 11, 2011 2:22 PM PST via mobile up reply actions
Heh
a lot could happen between now and then, but assuming they both win out, I’ll mail you a 6 pack on Amazon if you’re right :) (If I can’t make it to Boulder).
BTW
I’m not a betting man at all, but I bet my first 20 bucks on UCLA for the UCLA Arizona State game at the start of year. After the Arizona debacle, I almost just sent my buddy the money in advance, but we ended up winning! So watch out, I’m on a 1 game winning streak in my bets :)
Dear Dan,
Put your focus on establishing this program as a perennial contender before scheduling these “marquee” matchups. Bruin alums such as myself are sick and tired of watching our asses get kicked on national television. Thanks.
What comes first?
The chicken or the egg? We’re going to kick butt in Dallas in three years.
Would you rather play Coastal Carolina instead? Really?
Program rebuilding comes first
and then a lot more Bruins would be sharing your enthusiasm about this matchup, instead of seeing it the way N and others have pointed out. This AD is simply out of touch with reality.
Hy, the point appears to be money and getting to a bowl game
The bowl game is our tough intersectional game,and it happens once a year.
I agree with the others here. If we have a good team, why not play three cupcakes at home, give them their beat-down money, let our new guys get some game experience, and then play in our league starting at 3-0. We have a bad year and go 3-6 in league, but we still go to a bowl game and get a nice payoff. We have a good year and we end up in a good bowl. We would be 7-2 now instead of 5-4 if we played 3 teams like San Jose State. What did we gain from losing to Texas and Houston? Nothing we didn’t already know (we have a lousy coaching staff.) I like this idea.
Another tidbit – the last time Florida played a non-conference game out of state (not counting bowl games) was
September 21, 1991 when they got beat 38-21 by Syracues at Syracuse.
Coach Howland played San Bernardino State in an exhibition game. I think the football team should do the same. Let’s schedule Florida Atlantic, New Mexico and Idaho and get our guys some confidence. The SEC has had a lot of success with this formula, and I think we would be foolish not to try it.
Guerrerror, of course, is trying to turn us into Florida Atlantic, New Mexico and Idaho, and have us go into real schools with real football progams and be the recipient of a shellacking and then get the beat down money and go home in time for a little chianti.
A lot to digest, and some great points that deserve attenton
One note – UCLA does have 4 conference home games on the schedule this season, and I believe 5 home games in 2012 (reverse of this season’s Pac-12 home-and-homes and USC at the Rose Bowl). Don’t know if that affects the analysis too much, aside from DG’s scheduling boners like @ UVa and @ Texas in the same season still being scheduling boners.
formerly bruinhoo
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