Revenue and Ticket Sales Fall at UCLA: Dan Guerrero's Continuing Reign of Error
I'm going to start this with two statistics that present a stark reality:
UCLA's Athletic Department's operating revenue has dropped $4,302,335. Ticket sales have dropped $5,667,385.
USA Today has compiled a handy college athletics finance database that compiles the revenue colleges bring in due to athletics as well as the expenses each college spends on athletics. The numbers aren't pretty for Dan Guerrero and his clueless minions (including proven liar Mark Harlan) at the Morgan Center.
Here's how UCLA's numbers break down under Guerrero's "leadership" at Morgan Center:
2004-2005: operating revenue was $46,013,054 and ticket sales were $14,710,543
2005-2006: operating revenue was $52,066,786 and ticket sales were $13,895,922 (+ $6,053,732; - $814,621)
2006-2007: operating revenue was $61,309,668 and ticket sales were $19,459,464 (+ $9,242,882; + $5,563,542)
2007-2008: operating revenue was $66,088,264 and ticket sales were $22,402,565 (+ $4,778,596; + $2,943,101)
2008-2009: operating revenue was $66,177,866 and ticket sales were $24,996,824 (+ $89,602; + $2,594,259)
2009-2010: operating revenue was $61,875,531 and ticket sales were $19,329,439 (- $4,302,335; - $5,667,385)
And there you go folks: operating revenue made gains, then slowed and peaked around the 2008-2009 fiscal year. The fact that operating revenue and ticket sales have dropped so dramatically is a major strike against Dan Guerrero.
Now, Dan Guerrero has been reeling for mistake after mistake (after mistake after mistake, just as a small sample) which has made us openly wonder if Dan is the right man for the job. These numbers are a fresh blow to Guerrero and again make us wonder if Dan Guerrero should continue to be at the helm at Morgan Center.
More breakdown after the jump.
Of course, the Dan Guerrero apologists are going to come out and blame the downturn on the struggling economy or declining state support for the UC system. However, as USA Today noted, that argument just doesn't hold water:More than $470 million in new money poured into major college athletics programs last year, boosting spending on sports even as many of the parent universities struggled with funding reductions during tough economic times, a USA TODAY analysis has found.
In fact, it's a problem the Bruins shouldn't be struggling with. I compared the numbers for two schools with the same academic/athletic profile as UCLA (in other words, top-tier academics and an athletic program with a track record of success and tradition): Michigan and Texas.
Here's how Michigan's numbers broke down:
2004-2005: operating revenue was $78,424,186 and ticket sales were $31,432,123
2005-2006: operating revenue was $85,452,441 and ticket sales were $36,681,373 (+ $7,028,255; + $5,249,250)
2006-2007: operating revenue was $89,079,982 and ticket sales were $35,865,979 (+ $3,627,541; - $815,394)
2007-2008: operating revenue was $99,027,105 and ticket sales were $40,258,325 (+ $9,947,123; + $4,392,346)
2008-2009: operating revenue was $95,193,030 and ticket sales were $37,541,590 (- $3,834,075; - $2,716,735)
2009-2010: operating revenue was $106,874,031 and ticket sales were $41,715,138 (+ $11,681,001; + $4,173,548)
In sum, Michigan's revenue has been steadily increasing. Yes, there was a $3.8 million downturn in 2008-2009 (during the height of the economic downturn), but Michigan bounced back with a vengeance, increasing operating revenue by nearly $11.7 million for 2009-2010. Overall, Michigan has been steadily increasing their operating revenue over six years (an overall increase of $28,449,845 in operating revenue), while ticket sales have been up-and-down, but overall trending upward (an overall increase of $10,283,015 in ticket sales).
UCLA, on the other hand, has peaked and is on the downward slide.
Let's look at how Texas' numbers broke down:
2004-2005: operating revenue was $89,651,682 and ticket sales were $33,507,576
2005-2006: operating revenue was $97,756,776 and ticket sales were $34,280,260 (+ $8,105,094; + $772,684)
2006-2007: operating revenue was $105,048,632 and ticket sales were $44,562,934 (+ $7,291,856; + $10,282,674)
2007-2008: operating revenue was $120,288,370 and ticket sales were $44,691,119 (+ $15,239,738; + $128,185)
2008-2009: operating revenue was $138,459,149 and ticket sales were $55,394,209 (+ $18,170,779; + $10,703,090)
2009-2010: operating revenue was $143,555,354 and ticket sales were $56,741,662 (+ $5,096,205; + $1,347,453)
All I can say is: wow. Texas' operating revenue hasn't just steadily increased, it's increased by leaps and bounds in just six years time (an increase of $53,903,672 in operating revenue and $23,234,086 in ticket sales!). Despite the economic downturn that has pretty much reached every corner of not just the United States, but the globe, Texas has managed to increase their operating revenue each year and increase their ticket sales each year. And it's not like Texas is some slack-jawed second-rate college: like UCLA, it's a top-tier public academic institution.
This came as no surprise to USA Today:
Even with 2010's more modest growth rate, these increases run counter to the national trend of declining state support for public colleges, many of which have imposed layoffs, salary freezes, cuts in course offerings and substantial tuition and fee hikes. While about a third of the 218 Division I schools trimmed athletics budgets last year, about a third either increased their spending faster than money came in, or spending cuts didn't keep up with losses.
While UCLA's overall numbers have increased in the same six year period, the slowdown and peak in 2008-2009 and reversal of three years' gains in just one year is a major cause for concern for UCLA. The bureaucrats at Murphy Hall have given Dan Guerrero a free pass over the years because he's kept UCLA out of NCAA scandals and because Morgan Center has been in the black. Now, on the pace he's on, that second part won't remain true much longer.
And the money isn't a reflection of the product on the field. Yes, Texas has been enjoying a golden era for their university in both basketball and football, which probably has some effect on the increased revenue stream they've been seeing. But Michigan disproves the notion that Guerrero apologists are sure to offer up: if the programs were winning, the money would flow. Michigan, like UCLA, has two storied revenue programs, both with tradition, and both of which have struggled during this six year period. Michigan basketball has never returned to the heights they enjoyed during the Fab Five era and Michigan football has been a shell of its former glorious self, being beat up the Columbus Cheaters on a yearly basis. Yet, despite that, Michigan (with the exception of one year) has seen a steady increase in both operating revenue and ticket sales.
These numbers are a damning indictment of Dan Guerrero's reign of error at UCLA. The question many Bruins, myself included, is when are we going to get a forward-looking, intelligent, media-savvy athletic director who can guide UCLA, which has just as much, if not more potential for exponential revenue growth and success (second-largest media market, elite academic institution, popular city with young people, recruiting hotbed for both sports, etc.) than both Texas and Michigan.
Dan Guerrero and Morgan Center's never-ending acceptance of mediocrity is getting old. Pretty soon, it will start costing UCLA in more than just athletic championships, but in real dollars.
GO BRUINS
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very interesting to read this...
as i have posted before…DG is a small time AD in a big time place…UCLA…and eventually that will show up in the money side of the equation…and here it is starting to show itself…is anyone at Morgan reading this?…i wonder
Your question
(W)hen are we going to get a forward-looking, intelligent, media-savvy athletic director who can guide UCLA […] ?
The answer, sadly: when we get a Chancellor who gives a sh*t.
Roses are red, violets are blue...f*** $C.
I have to say
I don’t know how Dan expects students to buy a Den Pass next year when it will take about a good hour’s bus ride to get to the LA Sports Arena. That’s two hours of travel total for a two-hour college basketball game. I’m not sure students have four hours of free time to waste on a weekday. They may as well just buy student tickets for the weekend games, since it’s cheaper.
If you're watching a blowout, you can pass the time by counting the double teapots.
Samurai Champloo > Macross
UCLA/DAN GUERRERO
The root cause of UCLA lack of growth and success is the CHANCELLOR more than any other single person. The current Oregon State football coach WANTED the UCLA job when the Bob Toledo replacement was being sought. NO said the chancellor and Peter Blackman. They wanted Karl Dullard. They got Karl Dullard and here we are today!!!! Almost all of the Guerrero hires have worked well Ie the men’s baseball coach and women’s basketball coach. A bad day when Chancellor Charles Young “retired”.
Texas blows us out of the water
Michigan, not so much.
Looking at the full time span, and focusing on ticket sale revenue as the large revenue stream most directly under the influence of the individual school AD,
Michigan improved roughly 33% from 2004-5 to 2009-10.
UCLA improved roughly 31% from 2004-5 to 2009-10.
Football records for the teams over that time span:
Michigan: 44-30, including one 11-2 season in which they were unbeaten until losing to the Columbus Cheaters in the reg season finale and the $c-heaters across town in a bowl game.
UCLA: 40-35, including one 10-2 season in which we were unbeaten into November thanks to miracles from MJD, Drew Olson and Marcedes.
Both football teams installed new coaches midway through the period, with both schools under .500 under the new management.
At UCLA, ticket revenue seems quite sensitive to the previous year’s record – our biggest percentage increase came the year after improving from 6-6 to 10-2; our biggest percentage decline came the year after declining from 6-7 to 4-8.
At Michigan, some of the same effect can be seen relating trends in results with trends in revenue, with the notable exception that ticket revenue went UP at Michigan after RRod’s debacle 3-9 season after taking over a 9-4 program; but Michigan revenue is much less volatile (biggest year increase 17%, biggest decrease 7%) compared with ours (biggest increase: 40%(!), biggest decrease: 23%).
This last point – complete difference in volatility – seems to fit with the idea that LA fans in general are fairweather fans. In Los Angeles, you have huge amounts of competing entertainment, and UCLA students/alums make up a small proportion of the city, compared with Ann Arbor where Michigan Football is the only game in town and the city itself is dominated by Michigan students and alums. When UCLA football is good, people want to get season tickets for the following year, when it sucks, they don’t. In Ann Arbor, a large hard core of people are going to go to every game almost regardless of team performance.
However, I think the main takeaway from this last comparison is: UCLA should be spending MORE on coaching staff (etc) than Michigan, because the returns to performance are much higher (which ties in with B’s closing comments above about potential). In Michigan, bringing in the best of the best may not actually increase revenue all that much; at UCLA, a top coach bringing success to the program could drastically improve the balance sheet, even if we were just looking at ticket sales and ignoring other benefits (increased alumni giving, advertising revenue, etc).
(As an aside – not sure who here has read Scorecasting, but they note that Cubs fans always support their team, whereas White Sox fans are fickle; and that this actually gives White Sox management sharper incentives to produce a winning team. Next time I’m frustrated at a half-empty Rose Bowl I’ll try to keep in mind that the fairweather softcore fans (obviously: not the people on this site) staying away should at least be providing the university and athletic director with every reason to put a winning product on the field.)
I would argue that the numbers cited above do not show that we have done badly under Guerrero, BUT also suggest that at UCLA we ought to be capable of doing much better and should be motivated to produce a much better football team. So, still fire Dan Guerrero (and Neuheisel as well if he doesn’t turn things around), but from a slightly different perspective.
Your last point and takeway would make a good fanpost, venice.
I agree with you. In the grand scheme, we aren’t awful.
But in the same grand scheme, we could (and should) be much much better.
greg in denver, UCLA guy for life - BruinsNation.com
Texas, wow
UT’s revenue increase over 5 years ($54,000,000) almost equals our total current annual revenue ($61,000,000). I don’t know where to begin.
the key comparison is versus other schools in the your area
Under Dan’s watch, we have dropped to 4th in AD revenue of the four California Pac 10 schools, and 5th in the PAC 10.
Totally unacceptable march to mediocrity.
Wait til you see the ticket sales for the 11/12 football and basketball season….
by silverlakebruin on Jun 20, 2011 10:24 AM PDT reply actions
you have to win games
to sell tickets. simple as that.
"Good luck is when opportunity and preparation collide." - Coach Rick Neuheisel
by Zach Spitulski on Jun 20, 2011 11:18 PM PDT reply actions























