Neuheisel’s Quarterback "Decision": Good Arguments On Behalf Of Both Prince & Brehaut
by Nestor on Aug 22, 2011 3:00 AM PDT
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PrintAs we head into game week preparation for Houston Cougars, let's start the week by addressing the elephant in the room: the question of who is going to be our starting QB in two weeks? Coach Rick Neuheisel will have to make that decision pretty soon (perhaps in a matter of 24 to 48 hrs) as he will have to pick someone who is going to get our 1s ready for the Cougars.
It is not going to be an easy decision. I can make strong arguments on behalf of both (which I will offer up after the jump). No matter who Neuheisel picks up as his starting QB though, I think there are couple of really encouraging aspects to this situation that can potentially bode well for the health of our program.
First, I think it is worth emphasizing against what a tremendous development it has been for Richard Brehaut to step up and challenge Kevin Prince during this Fall Camp. We have not had an honest QB competition at UCLA's practice for years. The Drew Olson v. Ben Olson battles never counted because the later Olson kept getting hurt. Actually, the later Olson always kept getting hurt. Sure Prince has been bitten by the injury bug. But I think for the first time we had two QBs going at it for most of the camp (except of Brehaut sitting out for couple of days due to minor injuries before coming back strong). We have not seen this kind of back and forth at Spaulding for years and I think that bodes well for the program.
Second, I like the fact that for the first time there is total clarity in terms of who will be making the call on starting QB. We know this is going to be Rick Neuheisel's decision and the buck will stop with him. I think this will help everyone involved. This also gives me the confidence to know that Neuheisel will make a decision that he genuinely believes is going to give him the best chance to win the game
With that said, let's take a look at some of the arguments on behalf of both QBs after the jump.
Experience on the road: Bruins start the season with a difficult game on the road. Prince is the only QB on our current roster who has won big games on the road. During his red-shirt freshman season he managed us to a big road win in front of 100,000+ fans in Knoxville. In the same year, wiw he also got us crucial wins against Washington State, and also helped us gut out a significant bowl win against Temple in sub freezing conditions at RFK stadium in Washington, DC. Last year before he got really banged up for good, he quarterbacked us what at that time was a big win against Texas. So when it comes to experience and keeping composure on the road, this is one of the biggest arguments in favor of starting Prince on the road against Houston.
Ability to run: Yes, Prince has been banged up a lot over his career at UCLA. However, when he has been healthy, he has shown that he can do some real damage with his wheels. Remember the TD run against Washington State two years ago? There was also that memorable keeper against the Longhorns in Austin last season. Prince has had the edge against Brehaut when it comes to reading the defense last couple of years. In our current offense which uses a good amount of zone-read, Prince has been better in terms of recognizing when to pass or to when to turn it loose on the ground. Although, Brehaut per some reports have caught up a bit during this pre-season camp.
Getting in rhythm: Of the two QBs, Prince has put together the most "consistent" string of games of playing in rhythm. It didn't happen last year. Yeah, it's not much but fwiw two years ago when UCLA was making a late season run towards the bowl game, Prince put together a string of solid games. Starting with a game against Oregon State on the road, Prince completed 68 percent of his passes (62 for 91) and threw for 849 yards (and he missed half the game against Washington after getting knocked out by a Donald Butler cheap shot) [See ESPN's 2009 gamelog]. No UCLA QB has shown that kind of consistent rhythm in last 3+ years (yeah, it's pretty sad). So Prince has it in him to get in a groove, when he is healthy and has confidence.
Brehaut's Strong Points
Edge in 2011 Fall Pre-season camp: If we are to go by the axiom that players earn their playing time through performance during practices, from the reports it appears that Richard Brehaut may have an argument to get the starting nod against Houston. This is where it is difficult for someone like yours truly to make any kind of clear cut assertions. However, if we were to put together a sketch based on all of our aggregated news and notes from 2011 pre-season camp, it seems though Brehaut has had the edge against Prince in terms of performance. But as I said, it is difficult to say anything definitive because huge number of the reps Brehaut has taken has been with the number 2s against number 2s. Yesterday at the scrimmage Brehaut reportedly got time with the 1s and did really well in terms of managing the offense (even though the offense kept it conservative by design by going with running plays).
Gunslinger mindset: We haven't had a gunslinger in Westwood since the days of number 18. From what I have seen from Richard Brehaut, I think he has more of that aggressive "gun slinger" mindset compared to Kevin Prince. We saw this last year as we saw the deep pass emerge as an option in our anemic offense after Brehaut took over. We didn't see consistent bombs to Randall Carroll and Josh Smith until Brehaut took over the offense. Brehaut is also not afraid to improvise as we saw Brehaut against the Beavers at the Rose Bowl. His tendency to go for it of course has landed him in trouble with TOs, but at the same time Cade Mcnown during his first two years of playing at UCLA made his share of heart-breaking mistakes. I think of Brehaut can develop a bit of game management skills, and keep his gun-slinger mindset may have more upside as ours starting QB than Prince.
Offense opens up more with Brehaut: This is not a speculation. FWIW SBN's Bill Connelly shared the following nuggets in his excellent UCLA preview this off-season:
Adj. PPG By Quarterback
Kevin Prince (five games): 21.4 Adj. PPG
Richard Breheaut (six games): 27.0 Adj. PPG
Breheaut/Tunney/Bell (Washington): 6.2 Adj. Pts.With Prince at the helm to start the season, UCLA's passing game was ridiculously conservative. Prince averaged just 4.1 yards per pass (he had averaged 6.6 in 2009) and was eventually lost for the season with a knee injury. Breheaut took over and, aside from a couple of extreme egg-laying sessions, did alright. UCLA at least had an average offense with Breheaut, and only Brehaut, at the helm. And against Washington, things went briefly, ridiculously sour.
Ugh, I rather wipe that Washington game out of mind forever. But the numbers are interesting though. They kind of confirm what my eyes were telling me last season. The opposing defense loosened up lot more when Brehaut was leading the team because his arm posed more of a threat than Prince.
So who should get the start? This doesn't matter much but I will go ahead and attach a poll to this post. I will be honest. My heart tells me that we should go with Richard Brehaut. I think going with Brehaut gives Coach Neuheisel some added benefits in addition to having someone who is a gun-slinger and someone who can help open the offense.
I think going with Brehaut will allow Neuheisel to send some unmistakable signals in terms of culture change at UCLA. It will send the signal about how coaches value premium of preparation and performance at practices. It will also potentially signal about starting of a new chapter in our football program, with a clear break from the offense under the previous coordinator, who reportedly preferred Prince.
But that's just my heart talking. As explained above, there are some compelling arguments for going with Kevin Prince in what likely will be a very tough game against Houston. I can see a scenario where Neuheisel starts with Prince and then if the offense for some reason hits a snag, he switches in Brehaut to jump start the game. Then again, the argument would be why not just go with Brehaut to begin with?
These are definitely interesting questions to ponder. But I am not going to second guess Neuheisel and Johnson on whatever decision they make. The fact is none of us here have the overall data and practice tapes they are going to be pouring through before making their decision. What we should take comfort in is the fact that whoever Neuheisel chooses should be ready to lead what we hope will be a well prepared and focused team against Houston.
Let's root for both of these guys and hope that whoever gets the start, helps the team to pass the much talked about "eye ball test" starting with our season opener against Houston.
GO BRUINS.
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If Brehaut
Personally, I prefer Brehaut. I would prefer the Bruins just have him selected straight up as starter. He deserves to practice with the first string players and not just get thrown into the game in Houston if the team is struggling.
His potential in his arm is definitely a plus. The Bruins have a plethora of talent at the running back position and should definitely look to stretch the field so that talent can be used to the max. I realize that a pistol type offense would like quarterback mobility and good reading, but if the QB can’t throw much effectively at all, I would think that moots the point. [Admittedly I’m not exactly too well versed in football.]
Lastly, any news yet on how the WR corp for Houston will be like? I would love it if some of the younger players got more playing time…
I'm hoping that Brehaut gets the nod
Though it’s pretty darn tempting to want to go with Prince against Houston. With last year’s win against Houston, Prince had 99 yards of passing, while the team had 266 yards on the ground (all 4 TDs came on the ground, including one by Prince).
As FutureAD fanshotted a little while back, the Houston SB Nation preview: said “As far as the prospect of UCLA running the ball down Houston’s throats again, the bad news for Cougar fans is that they do return their top two running backs in Jonathan Franklin and (Troy High product) Derrick Coleman.” If Houston’s run defense is as porous as last year, why break up a good thing? Prince’s ability to run the ball along with our stable of running backs may be able to move the ball on their own.
However, ultimately, I would like to see Brehaut in the game. The reports from the practices indicate that his throws are more accurate and he’s hitting his receivers at longer distances and higher frequencies. It sounds like he has developed a real rapport with his receiver corp and CMJ has said that he has 6 WRs that he can put on the field who can get the job done. I want to see those WRs utilized. If Brehaut can continue that performance in the games, that will give us a legitimate two-pronged attack that can really confuse a defense and lead to some great results.
The past couple of weeks have shown that we have two able quarterbacks. One has outperformed the other in pure throwing skill and has developed a stronger rapport with his receivers. The nice “problem” with our situation is that either way, we have a back-up QB with experience should the worst happen. These guys will be pushing each other throughout the season to improve and hopefully that elevates the overall QB play at UCLA.
I also want to compliment Kevin Prince on his attitude throughout all of this. It’s not easy to have to refight for your starting position and to watch the other guy do well enough to legitimately take it. But from all accounts I have read, Prince has been one of the leaders on the sideline, cheering on his teammates and displaying the type of maturity that puts his team first. That’s leadership.
Dreaming of Westwood while in permanent exile in Virginia
I think Prince's attitude has been great because
He is mature enough to realize that its not a bogus competition. If he performed at a higher level (and didn’t get injured, leaving the door open for Bre to showcase what he could do), there wouldn’t be a competition. Based on practice reports and what we have seen in the past, my vote would be for Brehaut (although, if there was a spot to vote “I would be fine with either but prefer Bre”, I would have chosen that). It seems that aside from the better arm and the gunslinger mentality, Bre has the higher ceiling. I think we will see him grow a lot farther from game 1 to 12 than we would see from Prince. And that’s not a knock on Prince (tWWL replayed the Texas game last week at midnight and I watched the whole thing. Prince was masterful). I just believe Brehaut has a larger skillset, and it would be wonderful to see him reach his full potential.
formerly Westwood78
by PhoenixBruin on Aug 22, 2011 3:43 PM PDT up reply actions
I Prefer Prince....
Although I could certainly live with Brehaut getting the nod. I just think KP has the edge in experience in big games and that’s huge when you go on the road.
What I really like about all this is that how their styles complement each other. What’s really intriguing, though, is that we could very well have a QB duo like they had at Ohio St. some years ago with Joe Germaine and Stanley Jackson which, when you think about it, may not be all that bad…
Los Angeles Rams and the UCLA Bruins!!!!!
by Minnesota Bruinfan on Aug 22, 2011 4:41 AM PDT reply actions
I'm Going with Prince
Good article. This is a close call, but I’ll go with Prince largely because of the intangibles such as more experience in big games and I think probably an edge in confidence and leadership. He also runs better and is faster. And he can pass. I remember the Washington game two years ago when if I recall correctly he threw for over 200 yards in the first half. But Brehaut is good too and had a really good game passing last year against Arizona St.
This isn’t quite as earth shaking a question as it might seem, because whoever starts is either going to do well or else the other quarterback will get their chance. So it’s a decision just about who starts in Houston which can easily be reversed during the game.
Got to be Brehaut
If CRN has been honest with us that they were going to compete for the job. There is no way he can justify starting Prince. I have been to three practices, and the scrimmage, and every time Brehaut was the better QB. If he picks Prince his mind was already made up!
Couldn't agree more...
“if” it was a true “competition”, then it should be based on who performed best THIS camp, in THIS system. Yes previous experience is important, but if Prince gets the star based on Tennessee & Texas despite RB’s apparent edge in performance this camp (based on most reports)… Then it wasn’t a true competition at all. I think RB would certainly signal a culture change and issue a new era for Bruin football. I would be a breath of fresh air to see a Bruin offense effectively “gunslinging” the football up and down the field once again. Having said that, KP is tough as nails and I’ll never forget the image of him in Neyland Stadium with a bloody mouth finishing out a huge win for us. The dude has tremendous heart.
Not sure that's a legit conclusion about the competition
You’ve been to a few practices – so have I. My experience is the same as yours: Bre outperformed Prince in practice. But as CRN has said in interviews a handful of practices plus a scrimmage is not the entire story (IIRC: he said that a QB is like a coach out on the field).
I personally want to see Bre get the nod. Although Prince has some more experience, I think Bre has enough experience and Bre can pass better and we need a good passing game to balance all of our running options.
I trust CRN. I believe that he craves victory more than any of us Monday Morning QB’s.
by KnudsenRockne on Aug 22, 2011 9:42 AM PDT up reply actions
Either one will be fine.
Unlike past years, we have two viable options this year. Looks like Bre has learned to read the defense and for the most part Prince is healthy. Either way, we’ll have a solid backup, that will probably see some playing time.
I'm confident in both of them.
I thought that Prince would win going away. The fact that it isn’t happening is not a knock on Prince, but rather evidence of a fantastic fall by Brehaut. It was always evident that Brehaut had a more gifted throwing arm than Prince, but I felt that Prince’s leadership, competitive drive, and running ability would overshadow Brehaut’s arm. It still might, but Brehaut has made up a lot of ground by showing up prepared and ready to go. Regardless who wins the battle, we will likely need both of them at some point this season.
by AllHailMightyBruins on Aug 22, 2011 8:44 AM PDT reply actions
+1 -- Very Much My Feelings
My impression is that Prince was a much stronger leader and more tenacious player last year. To be in the race to start, Brehaut must have really picked it up in those areas — and that’s a good sign.
I think the decision will hinge on how we integrate our passing/running/pistol formation game. Prince was much stronger in the pistol last year. For Brehaut to be in the fight, he has either gotten better at deception and/or is a better runner than before — again, a good thing.
To be the second coming of Cade, Brehaut needs to incorporate some of that leadership and toughness — Cade didn’t just throw well, he was one of the fiercest competitors we’ve put on the field. To be mentioned as another Cade is a very good sign.
sjh
Great post...here's my logic for Brehaut
When I started reading the post, my attitude was ‘Oh, Prince all the way. No question.’ But after reading the post, I’m leaning Brehaut. My reasons:
1) The question of being tight with the receivers is really important, and as another commentator said, it compensates for Prince’s better running ability by forcing the defense to play more balanced. So, Brehaut’s main strength counterbalances Prince’s main strength, but Prince can’t say the same. His running ability should (but hasn’t) opened up more receivers and allowed his less-accurate arm to be more effective.
2) I think that the ability to read the defense in the pistol offense will come to Brehaut more quickly than Prince will develop his passing, and get on the same page as his receivers. Thus, we can expect Brehaut to improve on his weakness faster than Prince will improve on his. I thought that two yrs ago Prince demonstrated a lot of poise and seemed to be getting more in rhythm with the receivers. But we haven’t seen any of that in practice or in games from last year. His improvement seems to have stalled. If we could say he would play like that in the passing game then it would be a no-brainer for Prince…
3) It’s football, not rugby…and the main job of a quarterback is to throw the ball. the one who throws the ball better should get the job.
On the other hand, there ARE some very good reasons for Prince. Which make me very OK with him being our starter this year.
1) A potentially dominant running game. Who cares if you can’t throw the ball if our offense if running the ball 40 times a game, dominating on the clock, and generally just wearing down opposing defenses? I don’t think the main post gave this one enough consideration. When we were good with Prince last year, our running game was really good. Not excellent yet, but it showed signs of the kind of dominant running game that EATS the clock. While scoring less points, it can be a more successful way of winning because the opposition doesn’t get as many chances to come back at you. They are out of rhythm, etc…
2) Experience. As posted, this one is very clearly in favor of Prince. This is also likely going to be the deciding factor, and I would honestly be surprised if CRN picked Brehaut. We know what to expect from Prince, the team looks at lot more ‘together’ under Prince.
3) Brehaut will give away as many games as he wins (maybe more) with his ‘gunslinger mindset.’ This is true…at least until he develops and he needs starting time to develop. What has stood out to me in the reports from camp are Brehaut’s highs and lows: long TD’s, stupid TO’s. Brehaut’s upside seems to be higher than Prince…but on the way there we’re probably going to loose a couple of tough games thanks to his poor decision-making.
I’m afraid I might have just talked myself into being a Prince supporter once again…as we’ve said, good arguments both ways.
by selby4000 on Aug 22, 2011 9:12 AM PDT reply actions 1 recs
I think we will have a dominant running game
regardless of who is at the quarterback position. I wouldn’t mind seeing Max schuh handing off to Jonathan Franklin, derrick coleman, malcolm jones and jordon james.
“Brehaut will give away as many games as he wins (maybe more) with his ‘gunslinger mindset.’”
keep in mind that we won 4 games last year. If RB can win us 8 games but give away three of them, I can live with that.
Troy is burning
by bruinbasketball on Aug 22, 2011 9:43 AM PDT up reply actions
Like them both
Hopefully our receivers can catch the ball this year. Many times last year our QB’s were on target only to have the ball dropped, we all know that. I have a good feeling about this year and I hope our mighty BRUINS will win at least 9 games. We are lucky to have Brehaut and Prince and Crissman, Hundley and Jerry N. at the QB position. GO BRUINS!
by Forever a Bruin on Aug 22, 2011 9:15 AM PDT reply actions
+1
Our receivers made our QB’s look a lot worse last year (not that they needed it). They dropped balls which hit them right in the hands; they ran some sloppy routes; they often failed to ‘win’ against the defenders. I don’t know how to ‘assign blame’ for our non-existent passing game last season, but I think there;s enough blame for both units to get plenty.
To end on a positive note: CRN & CMJ have worked especially hard on QB’s & WR’s and it shows. In practice they both seem to be much, much better. Last week it looked like they were installing some new routes – and making a multi-dimensional attack. I think Houston is going to get some surprises (but I hope we can save some surprises for the other teams).
by KnudsenRockne on Aug 22, 2011 9:53 AM PDT up reply actions
Caution with "run heavy" offense...
I love watching smash mouth football as much as anyone, but a “dominant” run game will only take you so far if you cannot pass effectively when you have to. Last year is a perfect example. Bruins made their name as a “dominant” run game in the first 4 or 5 games while pounding Texas, Houston and getting over on Wash. St. After that, the run game was not as “dominant” in the 2nd half of the season where we lost 6 or last 7 games. When teams watch your films and realize you cannot pass effectively when you HAVE to, they load 8 or 9 in the box and dare you to pass. Look at the W-L column down the stretch… scoreboard doesn’t lie. If the passing attack can at least be average this year, it should be worth at least 2 or 3 more wins than last year (hopefully more). You HAVE to have balance, if not… a run game can be taken away by anyone if they want to. But that leaves them vulnerable to the pass. If the Bruins haven’t improved enough on the ability to take advantage of that one year later… shame on them.
CASE AND POINT
the 1st five games we had 1,432 yds (286.4/avg)
the last 7 games only 795 yds (113.5/avg) which included 26yds vs Cal, 71yds vs Arizona.
No so “dominant” of a run game when people see you coming a mile away. Learn how to pass and they can’t load 9 in the box and turn the Pistol into a Pea Shooter.
From the Fox school of G.A.S.
which stands for Grammar, Apostrophes and Spelling, it’s “Case In Point”. :)
But hey, what do I know. I’m just the 800 lbs bruin in the room.
speaking of G.A.S.
can someone explain why the phrase “I couldn’t care less” is so often misspoken as “I could care less”, which has the opposite logical meaning from the sentiment people typically intend to convey?
by VeniceBruin on Aug 22, 2011 2:47 PM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
Hearing vs. reading
Phonetics play tricks on you. For the same reason you’ll hear “For all intensive purposes” and “it’s cut and dry”. Other examples are:
- carpool tunnel syndrome
- old timer’s disease
- a blessing in the skies
- doggy dog world
- supposibly
And yes, at one point or another, I have seen the above. Really.
But hey, what do I know. I’m just the 800 lbs bruin in the room.
Trawl through the furniture section of your local craigslist
and you might be lucky enough to find a chester drawers amongst the dinning tables. (I’m not kidding, sadly.) Though not furniture, I was amused today to find a ‘soing machen’ for sale.
Roses are red, violets are blue...f*** $C.
OOH. OOH. I KNOW THIS ONE.
After the expression “I couldn’t care less” started being over used, people started saying sarcastically “Ask me if I could care less.”, “Could I care any less?”, “Like, I could care less” or “I could care less.”
Eventually, people just started saying the sarcastic phrase without the intonation.
by KnudsenRockne on Aug 22, 2011 7:46 PM PDT up reply actions
various reasons why your stats are less than conclusive
1) Prince started four of the first five and only one of the last seven, and was generally considered the better manager of the run game
2) we ran the ball less and passed the ball more with Brehaut in the later games, which brings down averages
3) we played a backloaded schedule in terms of strong defenses
by VeniceBruin on Aug 22, 2011 12:29 PM PDT up reply actions
The stats may not be conclusive but one-dimensional offenses tend to do poorly.
BTW: I do not understand how reason #2 makes the stats less conclusive… we ran more in early games because it was working and passing wasn’t. In later games we couldn’t run (because they stacked the box) so of course we tried to pass a bit more. When they saw that we could not pass they kept stacking the box and shut us down completely.
Does anyone have a table of offensive stats for each game?
by KnudsenRockne on Aug 22, 2011 1:31 PM PDT up reply actions
in re: why...
in theory there are multiple reasons why you would run less / pass more in games. One might be that your ‘passing’ QB is comparatively stronger as passing, so you play to their strengths while they are in the game.
I should have added a further point – that in games in which you are behind, you are likely to run less and pass more to preserve clock, another relevant difference between our early games and later games.
I totally agree with your point – and the general point that you need some balance – but I hate to see statistics abused in that way, given the multiple factors that go into how many yards per game you average on the ground. At the very least, you’d hope to see context like ‘yards per rush’ rather than ‘rushing yards per game’.
Me, too. Stats should be treated as if they mean something
When I get time, I’m going to post the pass/rush yard stats from 2010 so we can take a good lock. If I get some time I’d like to plot some histograms on our Pass & Rush plays from last season (averages are so over-used)
by KnudsenRockne on Aug 22, 2011 7:49 PM PDT up reply actions
I will support whomever CRN names
because he’s the HC and I’m not. However, the biggest wins of the past few seasons have been with Prince at the helm.
This is a new team with a lot of new faces, both players and coaches.
If Brehaut really is performing that much better in camp than Prince, I think Richard should get the start. Consistency at QB in keeping Prince as the starter because of previous experiences would be fine and dandy… if we were an 8-9 win team last year.
Kevin is the more calculated and conservative approach, which is why I think the coaching staff will ultimately name him the starter for week 1. But I’d rather a thriving Brehaut be given the chance if his practice sessions warrant it.
This conference is too good
to simply try and manage your way to victories. We need to be aggressive and take risks. It was that conservative attitude which bred a bit of staleness to our team last year. The D was conservative, our O was conservative, and our kicking game we wore out at times last season. The talent in the Pac 12 is too good to simply manage the game and hope to be there in the end. Where did game management get us against Stanford last season- steam rolled on our home soil. Where did it get us at Cal- same result. Sure we have good talent after 3 upper echelon recruiting classes have begun to mature, but we do not exist in a vacuum. Other teams are continuously evolving as well.
So I think we need to gamble a bit here. It’s all or bust for CRN (no I’m not a nay-sayer but just being realistic) and I just hope if he goes down, he does so swinging for the fences. I think Brehaut is a big gamble but I’m a firm believer that as a coach, you’ve got to lean on the side of upside.
I’m sure most on this board would agree that Bre has the better upside so why waste another year with Bre waiting in the wings. Because if he comes in and gets the type of ‘winning experience’ this year and we do well with a more open attack, think of what that will mean for his senior year- A gunslinger brimming with confidence. I think Bre would progress so much that there would be no true competition in 2012 and we go into that season with a lot of talented upper-classmen, and real certainty as to the identity of our team. Now imagine a mediocre to an above average year under Prince, what will that mean for our Bruins in 2012- another QB competition (this time a three way race) and more uncertainty surrounding our program going into what should be our best chance to compete for a Pac 12 championship.
Bruins are forever but Trojans are good only once.
by $honuff on Aug 22, 2011 10:40 AM PDT reply actions 1 recs
I think it's pretty cut and dried.
Our run game will be there no matter who is under center. Brehaut is a far more able passer, throws a better ball, and has outperformed Prince in every head-to-head competition, including the scrimmage, when he’s been full go. We need him to start to give our offense a two dimensional edge. Prince has not performed better except only slightly in the run dept, and even then he was outrun by Brehaut in the scrimmage, and he’s injury prone. I will be very upset if we start Prince based on these facts.
"Every day was a good day at UCLA." -Coach John Wooden
by OswegoBruin on Aug 22, 2011 11:00 AM PDT reply actions 1 recs
Rec'd
I think you have summarized the situation pretty nicely in just a few sentences. We don’t have time to fool around with who is going to be QB anymore. Neuheisel needs to pick and pick now. Hopefully it will be Brehaut. If not, get Prince all the reps he needs to succeed.
last season our run game seemed much better under Prince
because it was built on deception, and Prince’s play gave the running backs a splitsecond advantage compared with Brehaut – defenders were forced to honor both runners for longer. I think to say ‘our run game will be there no matter who is under center’ is an over-simplification. I think it will be a strength either way, but just how good it is may differ depending on the QB managing it.
by VeniceBruin on Aug 22, 2011 12:32 PM PDT up reply actions
It wouldn't surprise me
if CRN gave both of them drive time in the opening game…
comfortable with either
I think if we were just looking to win one game, on the road at Houston against a team we gashed on the ground last year, I’d take Prince. In the heat and on the road, I don’t really want to see a shootout between Brehaut and Keenum, I’d rather see a grind-out game that keeps our defense off the field and marches down methodically; and in the first game of the season we ought to have enough stuff Houston hasn’t seen on tape to allay any fears about the offense being too predictable.
If we are looking at ‘which QB gives us a better chance of beating $c with a full season of starting behind him’, I think the consensus right now would be Brehaut. (with perhaps a package of Hundley plays thrown in for good measure)
If we are looking at ‘which QB gives us the best chance of winning the Pac-12 in 2012’, I think it’s possible both Prince and Brehaut are keeping the seat warm for Hundley.
One final thought – if we are less than automatic from field goal range this year, we may have to rely more on big plays getting us down the field and accept that our drives may alternate between feast and famine, rather than being consistently solid; this would be an argument in favor of Brehaut starting over Prince from day 1.
mostly agree with everything
About your last paragraph though, I agree that Brehaut seems to represent more of big play threat, but having less than automatic FG kicking doesn’t mean we won’t be in the red zone. Wouldn’t the possibility of going for it on 4th down deep in enemy territory more often favor Prince? Given that in those scenarios the long ball (a Brehaut advantage) isn’t even a possibility, and any extra deception/running ability by the QB can aid the conversion % significantly?
my guess
though it is just a guess -
if you take our Prince-run offense to reliably get a small number of yards per play and make relatively few mistakes
and take our Brehaut-run offense to be more variable but more often get big plays
then with Brehaut you need to hit on a relatively few plays to get a touchdown, but if you don’t you end up having to punt; whereas with Prince you more often get into long field-goal range but less often hit the plays to get into the endzone.
On a Prince drive, you need to execute a high percentage of your plays in every drive just to keep the drive alive (but we attempt high percentage plays); with Brehaut, you play more high risk high reward.
From a mean/variance perspective, put it another way:
imagine that we start on the half-way line with good field position;
imagine that both starting QBs average 25 yards per drive, but that
Prince gets 25 yards 80% of the time, 0 yards 10% of the time and 50 yards 10% of the time
Brehaut gets 50 yards 20% of the time, 40 yards 20% of the time, 20 yards 20%, 10 yards 20%, 0 yards 10%
With a strong kicker, Prince’s team scores 7 points 10% of the time and 3 points 80% of the time, while Brehaut’s team scores 7 points 20% of the time, 3 points 20% of the time.
With a weak kicker, Prince’s team scores 7 points 10% of the time and can’t kick those FGs, while Brehaut’s team still scores the same number of TDs and a high percentage of chip-shot FGs.
Anyway, those aren’t supposed to be a reflection of reality particularly, just trying to illustrate the mathematical intuition that led me to what I said. May be totally divorced from reality, just a model in my head comparing the more ‘consistent/conservative’ QB with the more ‘inconsistent/gunslinger’ QB, and how the kicking game affects the optimal QB choice.
Gotcha
It’s certainly hard to know where reality lies within this model, but I see the logic. All depends on where you estimate those %’s for each category I suppose, dang do we need the season to start!
yeah, as I say, I don't pretend that those numbers are accurate
just trying to illustrate the logic behind a theory.
We need a cadre of BN'er who can do some analysis like that
There are other stats which round out VB’s comparison (eg. #1st downs, 3rd dn conversions & 4th dn conversions).
The big trick when playing with numbers like these is drawing the proper inferences from them. Not every 5 yard gain is equally valuable (and typically the times when it is most valuable the defense is most tuned to stop the O under those circumstances).
I have the play by plays for 2010 it shouldn’t be too many hours work to actually come up with the numbers VB was speculating on. Can we get the analysis done in time to influence coach rick – lol.
by KnudsenRockne on Aug 22, 2011 7:54 PM PDT up reply actions
Whoa ... It's not like Prince can't throw or Brehaut can't run.
In 2009, Prince completed 56.2% of his passes for 2050 yards. He averaged 6.66 YPA. He threw 8 TD’s and 8 INT’s, and had a passer rating of 115.5.
In 2010, Brehaut completed 56.1% of his passes for 1296 yards. He averaged 6.11 YPA. He threw 6 TD’s and 7 INT’s, and had a passer rating of 110.2.
Those two years sound pretty similar, don’t they? Yes, Prince struggled last year, but he started two games this year after not practicing the week before. Brehaut does have a better arm and has been sharper this fall, but let’s not get ahead of ourselves.
As far as the ground game is concerned, Prince is a better runner. But Brehaut did run for 61 yards last year against Oregon St., which matched Prince’s highest rushing output last season (60 yards vs. Houston).
by AllHailMightyBruins on Aug 22, 2011 2:58 PM PDT reply actions
* "this year" should not be in the second sentence of the third paragraph.
by AllHailMightyBruins on Aug 22, 2011 2:59 PM PDT up reply actions
there isn't a stat for 'incremental yards gained by running backs due to marginally more deceptive handoffs from the QB'
which is where I think last year’s Prince helped the run offense function better than last year’s Brehaut. They are both athletic enough to be decent runners when necessary – maybe marginal edge to Prince as a runner, somewhat offset by injury concerns when he gets hit…
Bingo. Now you know why sabremetrics for football is not as advanced as MLB
There are so many stats which are not kept in a systematic way so you cannot do a fair comparison. Consider something as simple as Yards after Contact. If it is recorded it is done inconsistently form team to team.
OTOH: With sufficient data you can come up with a proxy measurement – comparing RB gains with each QB
by KnudsenRockne on Aug 22, 2011 7:58 PM PDT up reply actions
...
… adjusted for quality of defenses, game situation, etc… :-)
by VeniceBruin on Aug 22, 2011 10:45 PM PDT up reply actions
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