Hoops Thoughts
by Penny2i on Feb 13, 2012 11:27 AM PST
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Print1. Reality
Any talk of making the NCAA tournament last week as an at-large was nuts. Let's manage expectations people. An RPI in the 80s with 0 quality wins is not going to happen. If we somehow beat a Cal their RPI would have plummeted below 50 anyway. The reality is the PAC 12 will be lucky to have 2 teams at this point much less our having had any chance of an at-large. 16-2 or 17-1 in conference was our only shot and those dreams died somewhere in Oregon.
2. Composure:
This team is more frustrating than our crappy team 2 seasons ago. We were just bad then. This team is less than the sum of its parts. How else can you explain our record and our kenpom of 46? My eyes tell me the reason for this is we lack composure.
We look great at times almost like a tournament team. But when we get punched in the mouth or we faceadversity we melt down like chernobyl. I really think it's part system and part players. Howland's systemsdemands a guards that are NBA caliber. Our success came having guards like Farmar, Afflalo, Collison, and Westbrook.
Although I believe we have enough talent in Jones, Anderson, Lamb, and Powell to be more competitve the Howland system places too much pressure on them to make plays. Jones and Anderson simply lack the composure necessary to win games. They have played well when we are rolling as a team, but they lose it on the road and when we face adversity. Jones is a hot head and resorts to 1-on-1. Sure Anderson can make a shot down 10 to cut it to 7 with 3 minutes to play then get overamped like he did something special, but the reality is he is mediocre at best. He is the poster child for this last era of Howland basketball. They are seniors that don't lead.
I think this creeps over to the rest of the team. We complain on every foul call. Bad call or not one should reserve complaining to the head coach (who incidentally never does.. had he ever been T'd up?) Only on rare occasions should our players be glaring at refs. That is a loss of focus and mentally allows you to make excuses. It also leads to a team that can't win on the road.
Josh Smith not only needs to lose weight, but gain composure. Honestly I think with composure he would be great tomorrow more than the weight. Howland has brought up his going too fast which I agree with it. He also lets hard fouls on him go to his head. Some people play better mad, but Smith is not one of them. Smith always need to maintain his composure. He needs to not get mad, but also to not be so nice. Get that spot in the lane son without feeling sorry for that 220 lb boy guarding you. And get 4 players on the court that know how and when to deliver that ball to you.
3. Future:
So we are only an NCAA team if we win the PAC 12 tourney which was basically true a month ago. I am ambivalent about the NIT. I would watch, but leave that decision to go to the players.
More pressing is can this coach get it done and if not can this AD get a better coach? Howland is not terrible and this team is much closer than they look to being a top team. The addition of Anderson and Drew next year gives the squad 5 McDonalds All-Americans. If we added Shabazz that would give us a magical 6th in my opinion, Parker as a 7th I think next season is a non-factor. I definitely given the circumstances would not fire Howland if he lands Muhammad. Howland earns a year to prove with top talent that he can build a contender. 6 McDonald's all-americans with the type of unique talent Anderson and Shabazz provides a put up or shut up season for the coach. Howland should be able to stumble into a great season even if Drew does not prove to be an NBA caliber talent. Anything short of a Final 4 caliber team would be time to move on for me.
Sadly without Shabazz I think it leaves us short because I do not have faith that Howland will figure out how to get enough guard/wing play to do exactly what he wants to do. He would accidentally look brilliant with Anderson and Shabazz on the court, but just Anderson and I think his defense gets exposed.
I would love to take the higher road position to say we should move on to get a great coach. Howland has proven to me so far he is not great, but I also understand our immediate reality with Chianti. I would keep him with Muhammad and move on without. We all know that is not going to happen however. We did have Lavin for 7 seasons, so I am guessing with Guerrero here we can expect at least a few more.
This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of BruinsNation's (BN) editors. It does reflect the views of this particular fan though, which is as important as the views of BN's editors.
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Getting to the tournament is basic minimum expectation
There is nothing managed about it. If a UCLA fan is going to argue getting to the tourney unreasonable expectation, then I am not sure what else to say.
by Nestor on Feb 13, 2012 10:20 AM PST via mobile reply actions
I'd like to add 20+ wins to that minimum
I certainly don’t want to see another lucky 18 win Bruin team barely meet the tournament only because they got hot at the end of the season, upset #1 Stanford at the time and luck into it like back during one of Lavin’s Sweet-16 years.
There's nothing to say to those people
If you extrapolate what it means to miss the tournament, it means that there are 68 teams in the country that are better than you essentially. In no way should any UCLA basketball fan be ok with ever being out of the top 68.
maybe I was not clear
I do think ucla should be a top 25 team at worst every season. WIth most of our years being in contention to win a national title.
Now to the intent of that point which you misunderstood.. what was unreasonable was thinking 2 games ago that somehow this particular team could actually have some hope of getting an at-large bid. My personal expectations for this team in the preseason was that top 25 type team or the minimum. They clearly failed on that front by 2 games ago. And will have failed on that front even if they win the PAC12 tourney.
So the question remains.. what elite coach can we get to improve on this current regime? More importantly what elite AD can we get to make that next important decision?
I still disagree with you here P
May be you are getting mixed up with “expectations” v “predictions”? I think it was more than reasonable to expect this team to make run in our last 8 regular season games given how terrible the Pac-12 is. As bad as we are we still have enough personnel on this program to make a run in an atrocious conference. Now whether the team will get it done is another question. I generally agree with lot of your others points in this post though.
run
my point is that even if we had won all 8 or 7 of 8 we still would not get an at-large berth. Sure we could have done that, but it would not have changed the fact we needed to win the pac 12 tournamnent to make the big dance.
We disagree with that
If UCLA had finished with a 8-0 run and then win 2 games, we would have good shot at making the tourney with 23 wins. Tourney committee members usually like hot teams finishing with a torrid start and with UCLA “brand,” NCAA would have put us in. Ultimately UCLA gets tv audience compared to some podunk school no one cares about.
Nestor makes a good point
It may well be that the people who set up the bracket haven’t seen how bad we are. If we get to some magical number of wins (unlikely in any event), maybe some who looks only at the number of wins says that we go in, or if we’re on the bubble, then we’re in because of the four letters.
well
One thing I diligently do year in and year out is pick teams in and out and I have never missed more than 2 at large teams. The committee is not nearly as swayed by 4 letters as you think. Very few at large teams have made the tourney with an RPI above 60 much less 80. I think the highest RPI team I can remember was a New Mexico team with a gaudy record, but happened to be ranked the whole season. The only bias against the RPI was the fact they did not want to shirk a team ranked all season. Wins are not nearly as relevent as RPI. Yes end of season success can gain you points, but you have to be in the bubble discussion to be considered. If we had beaten Cal they would not be a top 50 RPI team today. Losing to an RPI team outside of the top 100 would have dropped them to over 50. If UCLA then ran the table and Cal did as well perhaps they would have that 1 quality win sort of putting them an anemic 1-6 vs the top 50. With an RPI at 80 and 1-6 vs the top 50 we would not have been in the serious bubble discussion.
I didn't explain things properly
I don’t think we’ll be in the tournament. We certainly don’t belong in the tournament. My point was that if we get in, it will only be because someone made a mistake based on never having seen us play, and being overawed by the four letters. Rather than getting beat in the first round of the tournament, our guys would be better served by practicing free throws, working on their conditioning, and getting used to a new coach.
Say we land the stellar all star recruits class...
We have a great year next year with them. Go to the elite 8, hell maybe even the final four. All is well with the world, right? Flash forward to the NBA draft, we lose practically all of the recruits we just brought in and two years from now we are right back where we started.
People say you can’t blame a coach for losing if he doesn’t have the talent, well by the same logic you shouldn’t praise a coach for winning when he does have the talent. Ben’s team as it stands it still arguably one of the tope three teams in the conference in terms of player talent, yet we don’t show it. Should Ben save his job next year because he has three lottery type players on the roster? Hell last year he had two NBA draft picks on his team and it still underperformed and got beat by teams with no NBA talent.
Completely disagree with
this team is much closer than they look to being a top team
They couldn’t be further from that. They have already peaked. Saying that they would be a top team by addition is saying that they are not close at all.
But hey, what do I know. I’m just the 800 lbs bruin in the room.
We have not beaten a decent team this year
Cal is arguably the only decent team in the conference and they are not top-25 either. We have gotten PWNed by them both times. So this argument that we are some kind of good team is silly. This is one of the most mediocre UCLA teams from last 20 years.
Not only that
but if we’re close to being a good team, and are not performing that way, then Howland is not doing his job as coach.
As it is, I think this team is playing about as well as it can, which is a compliment to Howland…and a knock on his recruiting of the last few years.
But hey, what do I know. I’m just the 800 lbs bruin in the room.
Cal is better than us.
Cal is a mediocre team in a crummy league. CBH gives significant playing time, including starting, to a line-up of 3 guards and the 2 Wears. The guards are bad (at least two of them), and the Wears s/b role players. Let’s not fool ourselves-the talent level is low, and it’s a bad team.
The talent is def. not up to UCLA's standard
However, this team could have won more games. It should have beaten Stanford, Oregon, Oregon State and Washington (not counting the debacles of the first two games of the season). Howland hasn’t gotten the most out of the available talent (even though it’s not to UCLA standard) in this roster.
Not even close to UCLA standard
But first look at the talent we have on the roster and then look at the conference we play in. There is a huge discrepancy there. This team is not as good as any of the final four teams but they are better than their current record.
They are exactly as good as their current record.
Closing out games matters, and to count those games as indicators that we are “better than our record” is just a lie. Should we have won? Yep. Did we? No. That’s a loss.
I understand what you mean
But Im trying to make the distinction here between performing and underperforming. If you have a child that screws around and gets a C you are pissed. Why? Not because of the C but because they could have and should have done better. Yes a C is a C no matter what but there is a distinction between the underperforming C student and the student that for them a C is their highest potential. If this team’s best potential was 14-11 than that is one thing.
But remember this was a pre-season top twenty team, so no I do not believe this team is as good as their record. If they were as good as their record than nobody would be complaining about them being 14-11 in the first place.
Certainly have played mediocre
But on paper at the start of the season they were not considered as such. Reeves Nelson and Josh Smith were considered two of the top players in the conference. Reeves had issues he needed to work on and never got resolved. Smith never worked out once in three months over summer. But on paper the team should have been much better. How much of that is on Howland is a matter up for debate. In my mind he takes the majority of the blame but other people seem to give him a pass.
top team..
actually by addition and subtraction. JA is the worst player to earn initials. Jones although he looks like a baller sometimes becomes a ball hog other times. I think they are the root of our issues in many senses. I get accused of diminished expectations although that was either a misunderstanding or poor communication of my 1st thought yet a player like JA earns initials because he is better than the total bust of a player he was after 2 seasons.
Although these 2 guards are better than a plague like Dragovic at the end of the day an easy upgrade nonetheless (for a good coach). I do of course blame Howland for not grooming Powell more in a lost season and giving JA 30+ minutes a game. I also have very little faith in Howland’s ability to get the most out of an interior talent like Smith and wing talents like Shabazz and Anderson.
As a point of fact I would have been labeled a Howland troll and hater back when Memphis smacked us in the face in the final 4. That was the moment I came to believe he very well may not be the answer. It is ok to get beat by a better team or a team that plays a better game, but it is not ok to be unable to compete like we did when they dropped us like a sack of potatoes. As that talent has since shown we underperformed in that game as much as we have in a single game since then.
Composure? And, voting for tournaments
This is an odd team in that it has been slammed in the face and come back with a frenzy. In fact, I cannot explain why it is that we have fallen behind in so many games and then evened out the scores. It’s not that we can’t take a punch. it’s that for some reason we let people punch us over and over before we decide to fight back. And, because of depth, talent and roster management issues, fighting our way back into games takes so much energy that we cannot stay the course to a win.
I’m not sure what the issue with Josh is. I think he is composed. Because he is big, players are allowed to foul him with impunity; and, because he is big, fouls that are not fouls are called on him. I actually have great respect for the way he has handled the very bad officiating that has affected him. That said, I do not see in Josh the passion for playing basketball or the pure enjoyment that I would like to see in any kid doing something he or she is supposed to love. I really wonder if he wants to play basketball or whether he is doing so because it is expected of him.
Finally, I see tournament participation as something one must earn during a season. it is a reward, not an entitlement, and should go to teams that passed the course of the regular season.
Allowing the players to vote is like allowing them to grade themselves. I’m opposed to it because I think the AD should tell them that they failed and that we don’t reward failure. No tournament for you!
But, that won’t happen because our AD is a failure and must support the “Let me grade myself” approach to justify keeping his job.
sjh
I agree. They must earn it...
no trophies for showing up.
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