UCLA’s Pathetic 11-12 Season: Hoops Expectations for Remaining Games

by Nestor on Feb 7, 2012 6:34 AM PST

From all accounts UCLA's 2011-12 basketball season has turned out to be a huge disappointment to date. At a pathetic record of 13-10 (6-5) Bruins are well off the expectations of winning the Pac-12 conference. They have completely failed to build on last season - which at the time barely met expectations by getting into the tourney and bowing out in first weekend of the tournament.

Howland himself raised the white flag on this regular season few weeks ago, making it all about the Pac-12 tournament. Still looking at our schedule I still think the Bruins may have a shot in somewhat salvaging a hugely disappointing season (turning Howland all but a lame duck coach in the eyes of many in our fan base) by running the table for rest of this year.

Yes, it is reasonable for UCLA fans to expect Howland and this team to run the table rest of this season if they care about saving face this season. Missing the tournament 2 out of 3 years will simply be unacceptable result in Westwood. So if the guys want to sense the urgency and make a run for the Big Dance they can do it by tearing through what has shaped up to be the soft part of their season schedule.

Here are Bruins' upcoming opponents with their Kenpom rankings:

2/9 Stanford [16-7, 6-5] (60)
2/11 California [18-6,8-3] (21)
2/15 Southern Cal [6-18,1-10] (204)
2/18 @St. John's [10-13,4-7] (140)
2/23 @Arizona State [7-16, 3-8] (221)
2/25 @Arizona [16-8, 7-4] (36)
3/1 Washington State [12-11, 4-7] (120)
3/3 Washington [16-7, 9-2] (64)

Bruins should not have any excuses for losing a single game in LA from here on out. None of the Pac-12 opponents is an elite program. They are all mediocre by national standards. Bruins choked away a sure win against Washington and then imploded against Cal in the second half. Howland's coaching decision also cost them a winnable game against Stanford. They should be able to beat those programs at home.

Perhaps the only "tough" game left in this schedule is the one against Arizona where the Wildcats always get fired up to play UCLA. However, if Howland gets his guys focused and prepped they could potentially steal a win there. So given the schedule above UCLA fans should expect the Bruins to finish with 7-1 record in our last games putting us at 20-11 (13-6) heading in the Pac-12 tournament.

Again, think about those choke jobs against Stanford and Washington. Think about the second half implosions against Cal and Oregon. If the Bruins won 3 of those games, we could have looked at the possibility of finish the regular season with 23 wins. Then there was Howland's basic fail in realizing that he needed to play zone early on - which arguably cost us wins very early in the season. If we hadn't embarrassed ourselves in those first two games, we could have been looking at a 25 win regular season. Ugh.

Anyway, if the Bruins get to the Pac-12 tournament with 20 wins and can get to the tourney final, they could make the claim about getting into the Big Dance. If the Bruins get the job done by finishing 7-1, they may be able to push their RPI into the 80s. It is currently at 112 (according to Statsheet). Cal's RPI is at 46, Arizona is at 65 and Washington's RPI is at 74. This is where Howland's earlier season comment about the regular season not mattering much was not very helpful. If Howland had kept his trap shut about the regular season, Bruins could have waged a public campaign on finishing 7-1 and getting into the Dance.

Regardless - that's the big picture reset. We expect the Bruins to play in the Big Dance. It is on Howland to get it done. If he doesn't, he will further seal his lame duck stature at UCLA. An infusion of Shabbaz, Parker and Anderson will be nothing more than a band aid, if the Bruins find themselves in a position to spin silver linings about heading to the NIT.

GO BRUINS.

This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of BruinsNation's (BN) editors. It does reflect the views of this particular fan though, which is as important as the views of BN's editors.

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Comments

I think we play SJ in New York.

I may be mistaken though.

by uclakid123 on Feb 7, 2012 6:52 AM PST reply actions

Nope

You are correct. Forgot to put in the @ sign. Doesn’t change the dynamics though. They are awful team.

by Nestor on Feb 7, 2012 6:55 AM PST up reply actions

At the very, very minimum

They should beat Lavin’s team even at New York.

by Htse005 on Feb 7, 2012 9:14 AM PST reply actions

The last time I saw them play there

was in 2003…it was a nightmare. I was so excited to get to see my Bruins in NY. St. John’s was bad, but they started raining 3’s like it was a monsoon. Howland’s first team…no fond memories of that game.

But hey, what do I know. I’m just the 800 lbs bruin in the room.

by tasser10 on Feb 7, 2012 9:39 AM PST up reply actions

For reference

our current kenpom ranking is 51…good enough for 3rd best in the Pac, and 14 higher than the nation’s sole undefeated team. (Just thought that was odd.)

Roses are red, violets are blue...f*** $C.

by KSBruin on Feb 7, 2012 10:22 AM PST reply actions

how are we so high??

by BruinEngy on Feb 7, 2012 10:50 AM PST up reply actions

I think

kenpom is based on efficiency statistics and things of that nature, and less on schedule, etc.

But hey, what do I know. I’m just the 800 lbs bruin in the room.

by tasser10 on Feb 7, 2012 12:56 PM PST up reply actions

kenpom seems to incorporate strength of schedule through how it adjusts efficiency

by taking into account the opposing team’s average efficiency values and looking at each game’s expected and actual efficiency values. (see this link)

Sagarin directly uses strength of schedule, point margin, and win-loss; it has UCLA @ #72. (see ratings by team and by conference.)

by TheCheetah on Feb 7, 2012 5:24 PM PST up reply actions

Is the University of Murray still undefeated?

That has always struck me as a very non-institutional kind of name. Something like First National Bank of Steve.

by Fox 71 on Feb 7, 2012 1:30 PM PST up reply actions

They just lost, earlier tonight.

formerly bruinhoo

by Patroclus on Feb 9, 2012 10:10 PM PST up reply actions

we better win in nyc

mainly cause I’m flying from California for that game (and to visit nyc for the first time since i moved back). Got a group of 8 of us going… better turn out better than the preseason NIT games I went to last year.

by maccabita4life on Feb 7, 2012 10:46 AM PST reply actions

we also better beat stanford

since it’s on my birthday and I live in Palo Alto.

by maccabita4life on Feb 7, 2012 10:47 AM PST up reply actions

So we need to go 8-0 or 7-1, huh?

I looked at our results for the season, and I’m no Kenpom or any kind of expert. I’m just looking at scores.

First, the best we’ve done in any 8 game stretch is 6-2. That run includes a 5 game streak (over five teams with a combined 45-70 record, and only one of which is over .500.) The teams we play in our next 8 games are 101-86. We are 3-4 against them this year so far. Two teams, ASU (7-16) and just$c (6-18) skew that list. Without them, the teams we play are 88-52. The worst of those teams is St. Johns, but we play then in New York. When is the last time we won in New York? (That’s not rhetorical. I can’t remember.)

Second, the teams we’ve beaten for our 13 wins have a combined record of 124-171. I included Chaminade in that list, because they’re 9-8, with a couple of nice wins over (and I’m not making this up) Academy of Art. I don’t know if it’s a bunch of guys who are artists, or a school run by a guy named Arthur, but a win is a win, as Bruin fans like to say.

So what’s the chances of our doing something we haven’t done all year? Well, we did something we hadn’t done all year last weekend, with a win outside of the City of Los Angeles. That, in my opinion, would not have come to pass if the game had been 41 minutes long instead of 40, but that’s just my opinion.

I hope we go 8-0, or at least 7-1. I would not bet anything that we will go 8-0 or 7-1. I place the odds of our being that much better than what we’ve been so far against the teams we have to play at zero.

by Fox 71 on Feb 7, 2012 6:58 PM PST reply actions