Bumped. GO BRUINS. - BN EDs.
Wednesday was the deadline for underclassmen to declare their intention to enter the NFL draft. The NFL will release the official list this Sunday, which implies that the deadline rule is as follows-
Football players from SEC schools- submit tweet using hashtag #IDontNeedNoSchool
Everybody else- submit written declaration, postmarked by 1/15/14.
There could be some players who submitted the written declaration, but did not inform their school, who in turn therefore had no reason to issue an official press release. But I can't imagine a significant change to the following list.
So here is my final* (asterisk for the stray player who declares but doesn't let the school know) tally by school. The list starts with UCLA, then continues with Pac-12 South alphabetically, and then Pac-12 North alphabetically.
UCLA- Myles Jack (2nd team LB, offensive and defensive freshman of the year), Ryan Hoffmeister (2nd team special teams), Jake Brendel (Hon mention OL), Jayon Brown (Hon mention special teams), Sean Covington (Hon mention P), Thomas Duarte (Hon mention TE), Devin Fuller (Hon mention WR), Randall Goforth (Hon mention DB), Brett Hundley (Hon mention QB), Anthony Jefferson (Hon mention DB), Eric Kendricks (Hon mention LB), Ellis McCarthy (Hon mention DL), Fabian Moreau (Hon mention DB), Alex Redmond (Hon mention OL), Eddie Vanderdoes (Hon mention DL)
Arizona State- Taylor Kelly (2nd team QB), Jaelen Strong (2nd team WR), Jamil Douglas (2nd team OL), Zane Gonzalez (1st team PK), D.J. Foster (Hon mention special teams), De'Marieya Nelson (Hon mention special teams)
Colorado- Mike Adkins (Hon mention RB), Addison Gillam (Hon mention LB), Will Oliver (Hon mention PK)
$C- Leonard Williams (1st team DL), Hayes Pullard (2nd team LB), Soma Vainuku (1st team special teams), Nelson Agholor (2nd team kick returner, Hon mention WR), Kris Albarado (Hon mention K), Javorius Allen (Hon mention RB), Su'a Cravens (Hon mention DB), Cody Kessler (Hon mention QB), Josh Shaw (Hon mention DB), J.R. Tavai (Hon mention DL), Max Tuerk (Hon mention OL)
Cal- Jared Goff (Hon mention QB), Bryce Treggs (Hon mention WR)
Oregon- Marcus Mariota (1st team QB), Hroniss Grasu (1st team OL), Ifo Ekpre-Olomu (1st team DB), Erick Dargan (2nd team special teams), Bralon Addison (Hon mention WR), Tyler Johnstone (Hon mention OL), Derrick Malone (Hon mention LB), Byron Marshall (Hon mention RB), Tony Washington (Hon mention DL)
Oregon State- Isaac Seumalo (2nd team OL), Connor Hamlett (Hon mention TE), Sean Mannion (Hon mention QB), Ryan Murphy (Hon mention DB), Steven Nelson (Hon mention DB), Terron Ward (Hon mention special teams)
Stanford- Ty Montgomery (2nd team WR, 1st team kick returner), Andrus Peat (2nd team OL), Henry Anderson (Hon mention DL), Alex Carter (Hon mention DB), Jordan Richards (Hon mention DB), A.J. Tarpley (Hon mention LB)
Washington- Hau'oli Kikaha (2nd team DL), Marcus Peters (2nd team DB), Dexter Charles (Hon mention OL), Mike Criste (Hon mention OL), Micah Hatchie (Hon mention OL), Danny Shelton (Hon mention DL), Shaq Thompson (Hon mention LB)
Washington State- River Cracraft (Hon mention WR)
Tallying the totals by school, Pac-12 South first, then Pac-12 North-
UCLA- offense 5, defense 7, special teams 3 = 15
$C- offense 4, defense 5, special teams 2 = 11
Arizona St- offense 3, special teams 3 = 6
Utah- offense 1, defense 1, special teams 2 = 4
Arizona- offense 1, defense 2 = 3
Colorado- offense 1, defense 1, special teams 1 = 3
Oregon- offense 5, defense 3, special teams 1 = 9
Washington- offense 3, defense 4 = 7
Stanford- offense 2, defense 4 = 6
Oregon St- offense 3, defense 2, special teams 1 = 6
Cal- offense 2
Washington St- offense 1
In response to one of my earlier interim posts on this topic, one commenter suggested that absolute numbers weren't totally appropriate, because this method does not distinguish 1st or 2nd team from honorable mention.
I have 6 reasons why I think the absolute number is more appropriate-
6. The importance to me with all-conference returnees is that a team does not need to worry about finding a replacement at that position coming into next season. Just because an all-conference player is returning does not automatically mean that player will start next season. For example, Max Browne is in the mix to start for $C next year over honorable mention Cody Kessler. But $C starts spring practice knowing that they have a returning player who can perform at a level which was deemed worthy of all-conference consideration. Contrast that with Washington. With the loss of honorable mention Keith Price, the Huskies need to find a new QB. Whoever they decide upon may or may not perform at the level of Keith Price. But it is a big unknown going into next season.
Oregon does not have Washington's uncertainty at QB going into next season. They have 1st team all-conference Marcus Mariota coming back. UCLA does not have Washington's uncertainty at QB going into next season. We have honorable mention Brett Hundley coming back. We do not have more uncertainty than Oregon because Brett Hundley did not make 1st team.
For these reasons, I think the absolute numbers make more sense. But in the interest of trying to please all of the people all of the time, following are weighted numbers by team. The weighting gives 3 points for 1st team offense or defense, 2 points for 2nd team offense or defense or 1st team special teams, and 1 point for honorable mention offense or defense or 2nd team or honorable mention special teams.
Arizona St- 10
Oregon St- 7
Washington St- 1
The first thing to notice is that the order is exactly the same by division as it was using absolute numbers. We have the best returnees, even with weighting. The biggest difference is that Oregon closes the gap vs. us and widens their lead over the rest of the Pac-12 North with 3 returning all-conference players. Again, to me, we don't have any more uncertainty at QB because Mariota is returning vs. Hundley returning. But in terms of the weighting, Oregon looks even more solid than the absolute numbers would suggest.
And $C closes the gap vs. us with weighting. But if you accept the premise (which you should, so there) that returning all-conference players are important for stability, then the $C totals should get a haircut because the coaching situation. When $C plays its first game at the end of August, the returning all-conference players will be lining up for their 3rd coach in 12 months. That right there introduces tremendous instability. So weighting or no, their returning all-conference players understate the level of questions they have going into next season. It would be like one of their players going to class, and finding out mid-semester that there is a new prof, and the final may or may not cover the same material that the old prof had already covered. This is obviously a totally made up scenario. There could be a new prof, but when would one of their players go to class.
In terms of winners and losers, I would have to say that the Bruins come up smelling like Roses versus the rest of the conference, Oregon is also solid, Stanford has massive holes, and $C also lost a lot with early declarations who are not offset by the list of returning all-conference selections because of their coaching carroll-sell.
Go Bruins !!