FanPost

Game by Game Comparison- Men's Basketball 2013-4 vs. 2012-3

There was a comment yesterday in a thread that UCLA basketball had improved this year vs. last. It is certainly possible, although hard to see based on the debacle at Corvallis.

So I decided to go game by game this year vs. last, and see how we stack up. Methodology- each season gets 1 point for a win over a better opponent, each season gets 1 point for a loss to a better opponent, each season gets 1 point for a win over a better opponent coupled with a loss to a worse opponent, there are no points for a win over a worse opponent coupled with a loss to a better opponent.

Better is based on Sagarin ratings (shown in parentheses below), for lack of anything more readily available. There is a methodology issue because I am using final 2013 ratings, vs. in-progress 2014 ratings. Hopefully, there is not much distortion.

Here goes-

Game 1 2013 beat Indiana State (91) 2014 beat Drexel (138) 1 point- 2013

Game 2 2013 beat UC Irvine (148) 2014 beat Oakland (193) 1 point- 2013

Game 3 2013 beat James Madison (170) 2014 beat Sac St (288) 1 point- 2013

Game 4 2013 lost to Georgetown (17) 2014 beat Morehead St (154) no points

Game 5 2013 beat Georgia (115) 2014 beat Chattanooga (253) 1 point- 2013

Game 6 2013 lost to Cal Poly (164) 2014 beat Nevada (120) 1 point- 2014

Game 7 2013 beat Cal St Northridge (210) 2014 beat Northwestern (118) 1 point- 2014

Game 8 2013 lost to San Diego St (37) 2014 beat UCSB (75) no points

Game 9 2013 beat Texas (93) 2014 lost to Missouri (53) no points

Game 10 2013 beat Prairie View (324) 2014 beat Prairie View (328) no points

Game 11 2013 beat Long Beach St (159) 2014 lost to Duke (4) no points

Game 12 2013 beat Fresno St (123) 2014 beat Weber St (183) 1 point- 2013

Game 13 2013 beat Missouri (33) 2014 beat Alabama (96) 1 point- 2013

Game 14 2013 beat Cal (55) 2014 beat $C (132) 1 point- 2013

Game 15 2013 beat Stanford (58) 2014 lost to Arizona (1) no points

Game 16 2013 beat Utah (116) 2014 beat Arizona St (24) 1 point- 2014

Game 17 2013 beat Colorado (44) 2014 beat Colorado (46) no points

Game 18 2013 beat Oregon St (104) 2014 lost to Utah (58) no points

Game 19 2013 lost to Oregon (23) 2014 beat Stanford (38) no points

Game 20 2013 beat Arizona (14) 2014 beat Cal (44) 1 point- 2013

Game 21 2013 lost to Arizona St (64) 2014 beat Oregon (40) 1 point- 2014

Game 22 2013 lost to $C (100) 2014 lost to Oregon St (85) no points

The grand total is 8 points for the 2012-3 team, 4 points for the 2013-4 team.

An argument could be made that comparing game by game is unfair, because there is a random element which discounts wins which happen to occur at the same point in the season as a loss in a different year to a very good team. But I would counter that these should balance out over a cycle of 22 games.

In any event, we can quibble about the right scores and methodology. But at least in my view, based on the above, it is hard to argue to the 2013-4 team, with a record of 17-5, 6-3 in conference, is improved over the 2012-3 team, with a record of 16-6, 6-3 in conference, given the comparative competition faced over the 22 games.

<em>This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of BruinsNation's (BN) editors. It does reflect the views of this particular fan though, which is as important as the views of BN's editors.</em>

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