In another post, there is a discussion of current and former head basketball coaches. A thread developed using baseball analogies.
This led me to the realization that we no longer need to talk about good, mediocre, and bad Athletic Directors, using a continuum. Instead, we can talk about the Guerrero Line. If an AD is at or below this line, he or she is bad- full stop.
This is just like a baseball player not being able to hit above .200, the Mendoza Line. You don't need to say how far below the Mendoza Line a batter is. The batter is bad- full stop. Similarly, if an AD is below the Guerrero Line, he or she is bad- full stop.
The Guerrero Line is measured based on the success rate in hiring head coaches in football and men's basketball. We could expand it to all sports, but most fans concentrate on these two when deciding to storm the gates and demand change. Once this measure catches on, fans around the country will not need to come up with clever signs. Just wave a picture of Doughnut around, and everybody will immediately know that the AD is below the dreaded Guerrero line and that change is necessary.
Doughnut has made 5 football and basketball hires during his reign of error. I would count Doughnut's first hire, Ben Howland as a quality hire, based on the evidence at the time and the success in the early years. The unraveling in later years does not negate the conclusion that the hire when made was fine. So far, 1 for 1.
Doughnut's first football hire was Karl Dorrell. So far, 1 for 2.
Doughnut's next football hire was Rick Neuheisel. This had the potential to be a quality hire, based on prior success and unquestioned devotion to the program. But Doughnut tied Rick up with impossible constraints, particularly in terms of required staff. The hire was doomed, and was therefore, not a quality hire. So far, 1 for 3.
Doughnut's next football hire was Jim Mora. The search process was absurd, but somehow, despite all odds, this turned out to be a quality hire. The baseball analogy would be Doughnut squaring to lay down a sacrifice bunt, having the third baseman and catcher collide near home plate with neither touching the ball, and Doughnut reaching first with an extremely lucky single. But Mora has turned out to be a quality hire, so the tally is now 2 for 4. Doughnut is now batting .500, which is not exactly stellar given that he is the highest paid AD in the conference, but he is still above the Guerrero line.
Doughnut's most recent hire is TIARA. So we are now at 2 for 5. And here we have the line- .400.
If an athletic director makes quality hires in football and men's basketball at a running rate of .400 or less, he or she is at at or below the Guerrero line. There is no need to consider circumstances. The results speak for themselves. Break out the pictures of Doughnut, and storm the gates.
Think about this also. If Doughnut had not lucked out with the bungled hire of Jim Mora, he would not only be below the Guerrero line, he would be at the Mendoza line.
We may need to figure out a Block line in the future. But for now, just know that if your AD is at or below the Guerrero line, it is time for a change.