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UCLA Baseball: What Happens Next With Brady Aiken and Jacob Nix?

Oops - Baseball America

The last time a #1 overall MLB draft selection did not sign before yesterday was 1983. In 1983, Charles Young was chancellor. If only he had stayed. In 1983, Doughnut was still five years away from his first AD posting- at Cal State Dominguez Hills. If only he had stayed. In 1983, Jim Mora was a defensive back/linebacker for the Washington Huskies. If only he had come to UCLA sooner. In 1983, TIARA was a high school senior. If only he had stayed away.

In 1983, the Houston Astros finished 3rd in the NL West. Fast forward to 2011. In 2011, the Astros were 56-106. Their incompetence was rewarded with the #1 overall selection in the June 2012 draft. They selected high school shortstop Carlos Correa, who had advanced to single A ball by the 2014 season. He broke his right fibula on June 21, and is out for the rest of the season.

In 2012, the Astros were 55-107. Their incompetence was again rewarded with the #1 overall selection, this time for the June 2013 draft. They selected pitcher Mark Appel, who was the 8th player selected in the 2012 draft, but opted to return to Stanford for his senior season. Appel signed with the Astros for $6.35 million. He is currently pitching in single A ball, and is 1-5, with a 10.80 ERA.

In 2013, the Astros were 51-111. Their reward for this serial incompetence was the #1 overall selection in the 2014 draft, meaning that they would have the #1 pick for the third year in a row. And with that pick, the Astros chose UCLA recruit Brady Aiken.

Here is a quote from the Astros GM after the draft, as picked up in USA Today:

"This is the most advanced high school pitcher I've ever seen in my entire career,'' Astros general manager Jeff Luhnow told news reporters about Aiken. "He has command like I've never seen before.''


The Astros were obviously thrilled to get a pitcher who was already hitting 97 on the gun with his fastball, and had a solid curve to match. They were so thrilled that they dangled a $6.5 million signing bonus in front of him, subject apparently to a routine physical. Aiken was prepared to accept this offer. And UCLA would lose its top recruit, an outcome which was basically assumed from the moment Aiken flourished in his senior season, and became the top overall prospect in the draft.

The Astros selected fellow UCLA recruit Jacob Nix in the 5th round. The collective bargaining agreement stipulates that each team has a bonus pool cap which they can spend on selections in the first 10 rounds. If they manage to spend less, they can use some or all of the excess to provide bigger bonuses to selections beyond round 10, or they can pocket the savings. If a team goes over the cap, then they pay a penalty and forfeit future draft choices. If a 1st round player is offered a contract with a bonus equal to at least 40% of the "slot value" for the selection (declining scale from #1 pick to #30 pick), and the player turns down the contract, the current year bonus pool cap is shrunk by the slot value amount, but the team receives a compensating pick (#2 overall, for losing the #1 selection in the current year) in the following year's draft.

The "slot value" for Brady Aiken was $7.9 million. By offering $6.5 million, and by having Aiken ready to accept $6.5 million, the Astros freed up $1.4 million which they could offer to other draft selections. And they immediately focused on Jacob Nix, who had fallen to the 5th round, because he was considered a solid UCLA commit, and would therefore require many dollars to turn down UCLA and turn pro. As the #136 overall selection, Nix had a "slot value" of $370K. But with the prospective savings thanks to Aiken, the Astros offered $1.5 million. And Nix said yes. And Nix passed his physical. None of this was in the form of a legally binding commitment, but the parties expected to sign after Aiken's contract was set.

And that was where the Astros magic came into play. During Aiken's physical, an abnormality in a ligament was found. There was no question of Aiken being currently injured- he was still throwing 97 with no issues. There was also no certainty that the ligament would become an issue in the future. But the Astros decided that the abnormality could lead to issues and even Tommy John surgery in the future. So the Astros reneged on the $6.5 million, and starting talking $5 million based on potentially future damaged goods.

The Aiken camp, including advisor (not agent) Casey Close, were not amused. Aiken turned down the informal offer. The formal offer which came through was at the 40% level ($3.1 million) to obtain the #2 selection in the 2015 draft. At yesterday's 5pm (Eastern) deadline, the Astros made a formal offer of $5 million, which was rejected.

A full background on the unraveling can be found here.

So now will Aiken and Nix automatically become Bruins for the next three years, until the 2017 draft? Let's let Coach John Savage answer that one, as quoted in the LA Times-

UCLA Coach John Savage declined to comment about Aiken or Nix, saying, "I don't know what the game plan is."

Here are some of the potential future scenarios.

First, the Major League Baseball Players Association is looking at this hard. Even though the draft selections are not current pros, the MLBPA clearly doesn't want to see potential members jerked around. And they don't want to see the Collective Bargaining Agreement draft provisions turned on their head by incompetents like the Astros. So they could try to take action. The Aiken and Nix families would clearly be interested in how this plays out, and they could try to take action as well.

Nix in particular received an offer and passed a physical. Yet he does not have the $1.5 million he thought he would be receiving. One scenario would be to force the Astros to offer him a binding contract at $1.5 million, which would throw the Astros over the cap, and which would then lead to them losing their regular slot 1st round and 2nd round selections in next year's draft (but they would retain the #2 pick overall from the failed Aiken negotiations). If that happens, Nix would obviously not be a Bruin for the next three years. By the way, this whole mess is why normal MLB teams lock in the draft choices who agree to lower slot value first, and then offer above slot-value amounts where necessary. But this the Astros. They offered Nix above slot, without knowing for sure that this would break the bank.

Either Aiken or Nix, or both, could try to be declared free agents, able to sign with any team. Aiken however would presumably see the "future prospective injury" discount in any negotiations with any other team. And Nix would clearly have a good read on potential market value, at least from the Astros, which might or might not be matched by other teams.

Either Aiken or Nix, or both, could turn their backs on UCLA, and go to junior college for a year, so they could re-enter the draft in 2015. One difficulty with this scenario for the players is that the Astros are well on their way to another epic failure season. Only the Rangers, with their incredible string of injuries, have a worse record than the Astros. And the Rangers have not lost over 100 games a year, like the Astros have. The Rangers are only a couple of years removed from the World Series. So if they start to right the ship (a feat which is seemingly impossible for the Astros), the Rangers would not have the #1 overall selection. That would fall to the Astros for the 4th straight year. And the Astros also have the #2 selection already next year. So the Astros will either have the #1 and #2 selections (worst record in 2014), or the #2 and #3 selections (if somebody winds up actually worse than them). So let's say that the Astros get the #2 and #3 picks in next year's draft, and pass on Aiken due to the bad blood which has been stirred up. The #4 selection in the 2014 draft had a slot value of $4.6 million. The 2015 slot values will be set next year, but the only way that Aiken would likely see more than the $5 million he just turned down would be if he was the #1 selection overall again next year, by a team other than the Astros, and with a team which will not be as traumatized by the "future potential" ligament issue. So at least to me, the odds of Aiken improving his lot with one year at junior college don't seem all that good.

Nix, on the other hand, was apparently happy with $1.5 million, which he would presumably receive upon being drafted anywhere in the 1st round or early 2nd round next year (the slot value for the 38th selection in the 2014 draft was $1,495,400). So going to a junior college for a year, and cementing his status could make sense.

But the other option, which obviously is our preferred solution, is for both Brady and Nix to honor their commitments to UCLA, and pitch for UCLA for the next three seasons. Gerrit Cole and Trevor Bauer clearly blossomed under Coach John Savage's tutelage. There is no reason to think the process would be any less productive for Aiken and Nix.

The other wrinkle in the UCLA scenario arises again from the incompetence of the Astros. The Astros owner used the term "agent" in several quotes about the negotiations in describing Casey Close. Players who retain agents are subject to NCAA eligibility sanctions, as only the NCAA in its infinite wisdom would determine. Close was in fact the Aiken family's advisor. Advisors cannot be present during negotiations between the player and the team. Advisors cannot initiate contact with the team via e-mail, phone, or otherwise. There is no indication that Close did anything which would turn him into an agent. All we have to worry about is the buffoon Astros owner (you don't lose over 100 games in a row for three seasons, with a fourth in the offing, without some serious buffoonery at all levels), and the buffoon NCAA compliance process. That is obviously a lot to worry about. But there is not an apparent smoking gun.

When all is said and done, Brady Aiken and Jacob Nix are closer to being Bruins than they were right after the draft concluded. That does not mean that they will become Bruins. But I would rather have the current scenario, than to have them playing minor league ball this summer for the Astros.

And meanwhile, we have the rest of the UCLA squad, including all-time closer David Berg back in the fold for his senior season. UCLA was picked as one of the very early eight favorites in 2015 for Omaha, and that was without Brady Aiken or Jacob Nix.

However this plays out, it looks like we will have plenty to keep us occupied between the end of the 2014-15 football season and the start of the 2015-16 football season (not counting all the Olympic sports like women's soccer and women's tennis).

Stay tuned. And Go Bruins !!

This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of BruinsNation's (BN) editors. It does reflect the views of this particular fan though, which is as important as the views of BN's editors.

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