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Around SBN: Penn State Recruiting Roundup Is Set For A Big Junior Day

CollegeFootballNews.com Preseason

I disagree (pretty strongly) with some of this, but, for whatever it's worth, here's CFN's breakdown of the Pac-10's teams. (extracted from their breakdown of all 119 Div-1A teams)

There's one very important distinction in the CFN preseason rankings: these are based on how good the teams are going into the season and NOT how they're going to finish. Some teams have easier schedules than others, some get tougher road games and some will need a little bit of time to jell meaning they might be better than their final record might indicate. Going into the year, these are how good the teams appear to be from No. 1 through 119. The predicted finishes don't take into account possible bowl games or conference championships.

1. USC
Predicted Finish: 11-1  2005 Predicted Finish: 12-0   2005 Record: 12-1
Remember, these rankings are based on how good the teams appear to be going into the season and NOT where they're going to end up. There isn't a more talented roster in America with a who's who of high school all-stars brought in by Pete Carroll, but how many of those top prospects will even play? It's hard to fall too far when you have the best recruiting class in the country two years in a row, but there are big things to worry about like the health of quarterback John David Booty, the issues in the running back corps from injuries to inexperience, and the loss of most of the key players in the secondary. Even with all the question marks, the Trojans should be in the mix for yet another national title appearance thanks to great coaching, great players, and a great schedule that's tailor-made for a championship. Then again, the same was said about Miami going into the 2004 season.
Relative Strengths: receiver, linebacker     Relative Weaknesses: secondary, special teams.

8. California
Predicted Finish: 9-3  2005 Predicted Finish: 9-2   2005 Record: 8-4
There are few teams with more speed among the starters with an array of talents that would litter the All-America lists if it played in one of the other BCS conferences. DT Brandon Mebane, CB Daymeion Hughes and LB Desmond Bishop will be among the best in the nation at their respective positions, and RB Marshawn Lynch deserves Heisman consideration from day one. The quarterback situation will sort itself out with Nate Longshore ready to steady the four-man race, Lynch and Justin Forsett combine to form one of the nation's top tailback duos, and the receivers might not be the best in America, but they're in the top three when it comes to speed. The defense will be a sack machine with too many good ends for one team, Mebane an all-star in the middle, and one of the best linebacking corps in the nation. The slight concerns are on the offensive line and at safety, but those won't turn out to be any big deal as the season goes on.
Relative Strengths: running back, linebacker     Relative Weaknesses: offensive line, secondary

20. Arizona State
Predicted Finish: 9-3  2005 Predicted Finish: 8-3   2005 Record: 7-5
On both sides of the ball, head coach Dirk Koetter has assembled a team that can run, hit, throw, and catch as well as anyone in the nation. It'll be a major disappointment if this isn't one of the nation's five most productive offensive attacks with the addition of coordinator Roy Wittke to work with the quarterbacks. The passing game will be deadly with Sam Keller and Rudy Carpenter each able put up All-America numbers with a speedy receiving corps to work with an a huge, experienced line to play behind. The special teams will be tremendous with Terry Richardson back returning punts and kicks, and the defense should see some improvement with the addition of several good JUCO prospects along with Northwestern transfer Loren Howard and BYU transfer Michael Marquardt on the line.

35. Washington State
Predicted Finish: 6-6  2005 Predicted Finish: 6-5   2005 Record: 4-7
While it didn't make a lot of national headlines, the decision of receiver Jason Hill to come back for his senior year might have changed the Pac 10 season. He's a top gamebreaker with All-America ability, and combined with Michael Bumpus and Chris Jordan, should make quarterback Alex Brink look very, very good. he defense should be better with a good set of linebackers and end Mkristo Bruce to be one of the nation's best pass rushers. Unfortunately, the new corners probably aren't going to help a horrible pass defense from stopping any of the high-octane Pac 10 attacks cold.
Relative Strengths: receiver, linebacker     Relative Weaknesses: secondary, offensive line

36. Oregon
Predicted Finish: 7-5   2005 Predicted Finish: 7-4   2005 Record: 10-2
While this is a talented enough team to have a good season, this might be a bit of a stepping-stone year to what should be a tremendous 2007 when almost all the key skill players return and the defense will be loaded with experienced depth and several options. A late-season injury to QB Kellen Clemens allowed Brady Leaf and Dennis Dixon to see meaningful playing time, and now they should hit the ground running in a two-quarterback system. Top receiver Demetrius Williams is gone, but there's plenty of returning talent at receiver to hope for a sure-thing number one target to emerge. The line will be the best in the Pac 10 with all five starters returning, but it has to be better at run blocking. The time is now for top prospect Jonathan Stewart to shine as the featured tailback. The league's best defense last year has some question marks needing to find a sure-thing pass rusher and hoping for the corners to shine right.
Relative Strengths: offensive line, running back     Relative Weaknesses: secondary, linebacker

37. Arizona
Predicted Finish: 4-8   2005 Predicted Finish: 4-7   2005 Record: 3-8
The defense should finally be up-to-snuff with ten starters returning led by a linebacking corps that's finally healthy and should be a rock as the year goes on, and a secondary that boasts All-Pac 10 caliber talents Antoine Cason, Michael Johnson and Wilrey Fontenot. The line is bigger and better now that end Marcus Smith is back after missing almost all of last year. There's more depth everywhere than the program has had in years. If that wasn't enough, the special teams should be among the best in the nation. The tackles are there to give QB Willie Tuitama time to work, the receiving corps is in place with Mike Thomas, Anthony Johnson, and Syndric Steptoe all fast enough to make big plays, the outlet receivers are there with three good tight ends and an emerging safety valve in fullback Brandon Lopez, and the running game should be more explosive with three lightning-fast prospects. The problem? The schedule is a bear. The team will be far, far better than the final record will indicate.
Relative Strengths: secondary, quarterback     Relative Weaknesses: offensive line, defensive line

40. Oregon State
Predicted Finish: 7-6  2005 Predicted Finish: 6-5   2005 Record: 5-6
The 2006 Beavers are much improved with several things to get excited about. The offensive line gets all five starters back and should be dynamite. The backfield is loaded with JUCO transfer Clinton Polk joining Yvenson Bernard. All-America caliber tight end Joe Newton is back and healthy, and kicker Alexis Serna returns after winning the Lou Groza Award as the nation's top kicker. However, the problems are way too much to overcome in the hopes of competing for the Pac 10 title. It's a relatively young team with most of the seniors backed up by better prospects. There will be shootouts galore, only this year the Beavers will end up on the right side of most of them.
Relative Strengths: running back, offensive line     Relative Weaknesses: secondary, linebacker

46. UCLA
Predicted Finish: 5-7  2005 Predicted Finish: 6-5   2005 Record: 10-2
UCLA survived last year by making several fourth quarter comebacks. The team can't play with fire again needing to replace the entire linebacking corps, is still smallish up front for a national power program, loses top playmakers Drew Olson, Maurice Drew and Marcedes Lewis from the offense, and lacks proven playmakers on both sides of the ball. Factor all that into a better Pac 10 and it'll be a stunner if UCLA can even dream about double-digit wins.
Relative Strengths: running back, quarterback     Relative Weaknesses: linebacker, defensive line

75. Washington
Predicted Finish: 4-8  2005 Predicted Finish: 2-9   2005 Record: 2-9
If you believe the adage that veteran teams win close games, then the 15 returning starters, along with all the experienced depth in many key spots, should be enough to win the squeakers that last year's struggling team lost. If QB Isaiah Stanback can be this year's Michael Robinson and make the senior year transformation the former Penn State star was able to make, and if the deep stable of running backs turns into something special, and if the questions can be answered at corner, and if there can be some semblance of a steady pass rush from the front four, this really, truly could be a turnaround season.  
Relative Strengths: running back, quarterback    Relative Weaknesses: secondary, offensive line

78. Stanford
Predicted Finish: 5-7  2005 Predicted Finish: 3-8   2005 Record: 5-6
A better attack should be an almost certainty with senior QB Trent Edwards possibly being this year's version of Jay Cutler and becoming a rising favorite among the NFL scouts. There's no depth in the receiving corps, but the combination of Mark Bradford and Evan Moore will arguably be second in the league only to USC's dynamic duo of Dwayne Jarrett and Steve Smith. The line is very big and very experienced, but it has to keep Edwards clean after allowing 83 sacks in the last two seasons and getting no push whatsoever for the running game. The backs aren't good enough to make plays on their own. The defense will struggle against the good Pac 10 attacks.
Relative Strengths: quarterbacks, receivers    Relative Weaknesses: defensive line, running backs

This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of BruinsNation's (BN) editors. It does reflect the views of this particular fan though, which is as important as the views of BN's editors.

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Nice job
Putting the extracts in one place. I saw this as well. I just don't see UCLA finishing behind Oregon State, Arizona, and Washington State. No way no how. If this predicted order holds true - I think chances will look very real we may be getting a new coach at the end of this season or the next one (provided 2007 is a similar dud).

I strongly believe we have enough talent to win 8-9 games and beat SC. This is the year to beat SC considering it's at home and they are breaking in so many new inexperienced players at key positions.

by Nestor on Jul 21, 2006 10:20 AM PDT reply actions  

Thanks. I completely agree that
if the season ends at 5-7 (CFN's prediction) KD needs to go.  That would be a .500 or worse record in 3 of his 4 seasons.  But I can't see which 7 games it would be likely to lose. 3 or 4 out of @Oregon, @ND, @Cal, @ASU, USC.  Everyone else better be a win. 9-3 or 8-4.

by McCloskey on Jul 21, 2006 10:34 AM PDT up reply actions  

Question M
Can you point me to a link where I can look up old UCLA season stats? For i.e. if I want to look up season stats from the 1993-94 and 1991-92 season.

Thanks man.

by Nestor on Jul 21, 2006 3:25 PM PDT up reply actions  

No, Sorry.
The media guide has general information for previous years, i.e. Yearly team totals for rushing, yearly team totals for passing, yearly team totals for scoring, but no detailed stats.

by McCloskey on Jul 24, 2006 8:11 AM PDT up reply actions  

Damn
Yeah I was looking through the media guide.

And surprisingly haven't been able to find any stats. almanac out there.

Here is a question ... you don't happen to know howe can get a hold of Wayne Cook's stats from 1993-94 season and the UCLA running backs/receivers stats from 91-92 ... do you?

by Nestor on Jul 24, 2006 8:22 AM PDT up reply actions  

Incomplete
Wayne Cook 1993: 165/297 for 2,067 yards & 18 TD's & (?) Ints.
Wayne Cook 1994: 179/302 for 2,501 yards & 15 TD's & 7 Ints.

by McCloskey on Jul 24, 2006 9:46 AM PDT up reply actions  

Thanks M
Cook's 1993-94 numbers are interesting to me.

That was his first season at UCLA as a full time starter. Remember the year before he broke his foot (ankle?) in his first game against Cal State Fullerton and was out for rest of the season.

So he had that great 1993 season with really just two years in practice field.

Now I am curious to find out the RBs numbers in 92-93 season (which was an aweful season except for that memorable Barnes win against USC).

by Nestor on Jul 24, 2006 9:51 AM PDT up reply actions  

Well, I found this
Yearly Team Totals - Rushing
  1. 540 attempts / 2,401 yards
  2. 436 attempts / 1,371 yards
  3. 521 attempts / 2,204 yards  
  4. 413 attempts / 1,688 yards
Yearly Individual Performers - Rushing
  1. Kevin Williams - 191 attempts / 1,141 yards
  2. Kevin Williams - 115 attempts / 582 yards
  3. Skip Hicks - 100 attempts / 563 yards
  4. K. Abdul-Jabbar (S. Shah) - 210 attempts / 1,227 yards

by McCloskey on Jul 24, 2006 1:33 PM PDT up reply actions  

aaha
I think Hicks got injured at some point during the 1993 season.

Markey had 561yds/110 attempts and Bell had 310 yds/52 attempts last season. I'd bet that was way more than the 2nd and 3rd leading UCLA rusher (next to Kevin Williams) during the 92-93 season.

Do you see where am I going with this?

by Nestor on Jul 24, 2006 1:48 PM PDT up reply actions  

The #2 rusher in the '92 season was
freshman Karim Abdul-Jabbar (S. Shah) He had 48 carries for 124 yards.

That team (6-5) wasn't extraordinarily talented.  By the way, how did they finish the season?

by McCloskey on Jul 24, 2006 2:06 PM PDT up reply actions  

lol
the 6-5 team from 92-93 ended up having a pretty interesting season with a quarterback who had barely taken any snaps in a D-1 game (with two years of practice experience in the program) and inexperience at the running back where the leading rusher left was Sharma Shah with 124 yards in 48 carries.

So how did that team anchored with a solid OL (with experience) do? :)

by Nestor on Jul 24, 2006 2:11 PM PDT up reply actions  

For your upcoming post...
Wayne Cook had 13 pass attempts prior to to 1993 season.  That's not materially different than 4 attempts.

by McCloskey on Jul 25, 2006 9:48 AM PDT up reply actions  

More interesting info to find out ..
would be how experienced that OL was during 1993-94 season. I knew we had Ogden. We also had Vaughn Parker who was a beast.

On the defensive side our line was anchored by a stud like Jameer Miller  (Brigham Harwell reminds me of him)  and then it was Marvin Goodwin quaterbacking the defensive backs. Keyes remind me of Goodwin (he has the potential to be a Goodwin). One of key linebacker from that team was Donnie Edwards and Donnovan Gallatin - and our current LB corps may not have a superstar like Edwards in fold, but if you look at the depth at that LB corp from 93-94 probably not all that different from what we got today.

I would have loved to get a hold on a roster from that season.

by Nestor on Jul 25, 2006 10:01 AM PDT up reply actions  

Craig Novitsky was on the line too.
J.J, and Kevin Jordan were the WR's.

Stokes, Parker, Novitsky, Miller, & Goodwin were all-Pac-10.  So were both kickers, Merten & Schager.

Stokes, Miller, & Merten were All-Americans.

The biggest difference (from now) is at LB (Jamir Miller played LB alongside Goodwin)

by McCloskey on Jul 25, 2006 10:25 AM PDT up reply actions  

Goodwin
I thought Marvin was a safety?

I remember reading articles about how he was the next great UCLA DB in the tradition of Matt Darbey/Eric Turner and co.

No?

by Nestor on Jul 25, 2006 10:29 AM PDT up reply actions  

Yeap
Keep in mind Stokes barely broke out as a big time WR the year before (in the last two games against Oregon (on the road) and USC (the memorable Barnes game)).

So it's not like he came in as a total proven commodity. In fact you can argue Junior Taylor is more experienced at this stage of his career than JJ was in 1993-94.

by Nestor on Jul 25, 2006 10:48 AM PDT up reply actions  

Taylor is definitly more experienced.
J.J. had 46 catches, for 783 yards, prior to 1993 (his junior year). Junior (RS senior) has 76 catches for 1,041 yards.

by McCloskey on Jul 25, 2006 11:01 AM PDT up reply actions  

The 1993-94 team
was also not picked very high in the pre-season rags.

We also had an interesting game against another high profile team from the MWC- Ty Detmer's BYU. I believe we dropped 66 points on those clowns.

During the 3Q cards started flying out of the student section.

by Nestor on Jul 25, 2006 11:06 AM PDT up reply actions  

@Oregon, @ND, @Cal, @ASU, USC
We are going to lose to ND. At this point of time I just don't see how we can match up against the fire power of Quinn and co.

As for Oregon, Cal, ASU, and USC - we can win 3 out of those 4 games.

USC is a game we should never concede specially when we are playing at home. I have mentioned few times how this is a team that is ready to stumble (no matter what Trojan fans will keep saying). If we can improve defensively, and our offense develops with the experienced players at skilled positions with Olson, this is a game we can win.

Cal will be tough. We got lucky against them last year and I don't see how we can keep up with them up at Strawberry Canyon. They won't have Ayoob to blow the game or MJD to punt straight to.

ASU just doesn't scare me. Sure Carpenter or Keller are great QBs but rest of that team is vanilla. It's a team we should have beaten two years ago at Tempe, when Olson threw 4 picks and Kerr killed us with his bend don't break defnsive strategy. This is a game we should win.

Oregon - I can't quiet get a read on yet. They finished the season on a nice note last year but looked aweful against Oklahoma. This is the real toss up game that can go against us.

by Nestor on Jul 21, 2006 11:19 AM PDT reply actions  

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